The Harry Armstrong Thread

[picket fence 17,169]

19 minutes ago, Ted Lasso said:

I think he's going to St Kilda at pick 7 or 8 to be honest. 

If i was to guess, pick 9 we will be choosing between Lindsay, Reid and Trainor

Yep and either Lindsay or Reid for me!

[manny100 1,556]

Depends on ranking. We may take Armstrong at 5 if ranked there.

Considerations. Can both or one of Rivers and Brown become a very good mids? Stability with Oliver and Tracc.

If Armstrong is ranked 5 and Rivers to play mid maybe Travaglia as a high endurance/speed defender at 9?

 

 

[DeeSpencer 25,707]

2 hours ago, mo64 said:

If you don't believe that JVR or Jeffo are the answer, then why would you put your faith in Jason Taylor's assessment of Armstrong? If you add Weideman to the mix, his track record should be poor in your mind. 

I think JVR was a good pick for pick 19 and will be a very useful number 2 tall.

Jeffo was a bit of a gamble at 15 in not a strong draft, I still like his upside as a useful afl player but he’s not a reason to not take someone you think it’s significantly better.

I don’t love JT’s record with tall forwards but I don’t think that’s a valid reason to not take one. Especially over a low sample size.

[manny100 1,556]

8 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

I think JVR was a good pick for pick 19 and will be a very useful number 2 tall.

Jeffo was a bit of a gamble at 15 in not a strong draft, I still like his upside as a useful afl player but he’s not a reason to not take someone you think it’s significantly better.

I don’t love JT’s record with tall forwards but I don’t think that’s a valid reason to not take one. Especially over a low sample size.

Also Armstrong if drafted may not play next year. Petty and Turner may eventually play back.

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,660]

On 23/10/2024 at 12:01, Sydee said:

I don’t really see what he has that is any better than Jefferson who after two years has yet to get a game

Tauru above Armstrong for mine 

Armstrong is very different to Jefferson — he hits packs hard and crashes in with his body Jeffo is a Lead and mark type! Tauru more a defender.. Armstrong def has loads of upside but chance id Smith slips we get Smilie and Smith but I’d rkn it’s Armstrong and one of their two!

[DubDee 25,863]

Lloyd has certainly talked him up at the right time

As the best rated tall fwd he’ll probably go top 10 to a team that really need a young tall but I’d be staggered if JT rates him top 5 

[adonski 12,134]

3 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Lloyd has certainly talked him up at the right time

As the best rated tall fwd he’ll probably go top 10 to a team that really need a young tall but I’d be staggered if JT rates him top 5 

It'd be a bit of a laugh if we took him with what was originally essendons pick 9

[Willmoy1947 4,088]

12 hours ago, picket fence said:

Agree and if we select him it is a HUGE blunder for those reasons, mids, mids and more MIDS ! END OF STORY!

Disagree , we could always do with mids, but i'm considering what i see in today's footy as being the advantage of having good mobile tall tough goal kickers. Jackson and jessie especially.

[picket fence 17,169]

1 hour ago, Tolstoys Nudge said:

Armstrong is very different to Jefferson — he hits packs hard and crashes in with his body Jeffo is a Lead and mark type! Tauru more a defender.. Armstrong def has loads of upside but chance id Smith slips we get Smilie and Smith but I’d rkn it’s Armstrong and one of their two!

Clearly you haven't watched Casey and Jeffo.... Armstrong is a poor mans Jeffo.. PERIOD!@

[DistrACTION Jackson 8,734]

17 minutes ago, picket fence said:

Clearly you haven't watched Casey and Jeffo.... Armstrong is a poor mans Jeffo.. PERIOD!@

I actually now believe you ARE Matt Jefferson

[Sydee 4,439]

9 hours ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

I actually now believe you ARE Matt Jefferson

Indeed - remarkable self promotion for someone who hasn’t managed a game yet and regularly is virtually unsighted at Casey 

To each his own though - personally still think Tauru will be a much better player in time than Jefferson or Armstrong 

Most of these kids have plenty of ability it’s the mindset and the hunger to compete and win that sets some apart. We have certainly had our fair share of tall forwards that don’t seem to have much of the latter quality - hopefully it’s about to change 

[manny100 1,556]

Jeffo has served his apprenticeship at Casey, 3rd in the 2024 B&F. He will get a chance in 2025 to play AFL.

I think we will pick a KP this draft along with a mid or running half back.

Armstrong or Tauru would be good.

If Nth trade with the Tigers for pick 6 and we take one of Tauru or Armstrong at 5 they will take the other at 6.

 

[deejammin' 2,370]

There’s always the possibility we play both Rivers and McVee as mids next year. Then if we take Armstrong at 5 you have:

Gawn, Trac, Oliver, Viney, Rivers, McVee, Windsor, Kolt + Kozzie in bursts, Sharp, Brown and potentially pick 9 as your mids. 
Salem, Bowey, Howes, Taj, Hore, AMW, as your medium/small backs. 
That’s not a bad list to choose from at all. 
Plus if one or both of Jeffo and Armstrong come on you have JVR, Jeffo, Armstrong, Verrell vying for your KPF places giving us the luxury of swinging one or both of Petty and Turner back. 

Edited October 28 by deejammin'

[DubDee 25,863]

12 minutes ago, deejammin' said:

There’s always the possibility we play both Rivers and McVee as mids next year. Then if we take Armstrong at 5 you have:

Gawn, Trac, Oliver, Viney, Rivers, McVee, Windsor, Kolt + Kozzie in bursts, Sharp, Brown and potentially pick 9 as your mids. 
Salem, Bowey, Howes, Taj, Hore, AMW, as your medium/small backs. 
That’s not a bad list to choose from at all. 
Plus if one or both of Jeffo and Armstrong come on you have JVR, Jeffo, Armstrong, Verrell vying for your KPF places giving us the luxury of swinging one or both of Petty and Turner back. 

Agreed it's not a bad list of mids

But you needs stars in the midfield to win flags and in a few years we need to have blokes there to replace Trac and Clarry (assuming they are still there).

Compare the Lions midfield strength and depth to the above and you'll see we are way behind

[Mel Bourne 4,515]

On 26/10/2024 at 15:50, Dee Viney Intervention said:

Nothing against Armstrong but we have lost Brayshaw, Harmes, JJ, Dunstan etc and we replaced them with?????The midfield cupboard is bare at Casey. You can have JVR, Jefferson, Armstrong and Jesus Christ in our forward line but if we persist with slow ball movement and blindly bombing the ball into a congested forwardline I don’t care who you are, you are going to struggle to score. And we do. 
 I get where you are coming from it is a bit of what comes first the chicken or the egg. I think we need midfield depth with quality ball users. We have the personnel in our forward line to get the job done, however there is no doubt we need a better system down there or players having clearly defined roles and they need to be made accountable for playing their role. 

Certainly a selfless player who pulls off some pretty miraculous stuff, but not enough mongrel for my mine. Pretty sure the Saints are going to pick him up, anyway. 

[kurtneverdied 244]

I really believe we can't pass up on best available mid for at least pick 5 in this draft. I hope s mid for pick 9 too.

Stuff putting Mcvee, even Rivers in mids. They can play back and we draft quality mids.

Another reason is we still believe we are in the window and I doubt Armstrong helps like Windsor did this year.

Looking back at previous drafts, it's rare to have depth going to pick 10ish. 

Top 5 picks have roughly a 7/10 chance to be decent. Picks 6-10 is far less, around the 4/10 mark.

This is a massive opportunity to get 2 star players and a gamble on Armstrong is just wrong. JT picked Weideman over McKay and Curnow, plus the other fails and questions over Jefferson who right now has a serious question mark of being a pick 15. 

Our success with talls has come late in drafts. Petty, Turner, even JVR pick 19. Before JT, Gawn and McDonald.

 

[deejammin' 2,370]

1 hour ago, DubDee said:

Agreed it's not a bad list of mids

But you needs stars in the midfield to win flags and in a few years we need to have blokes there to replace Trac and Clarry (assuming they are still there).

Compare the Lions midfield strength and depth to the above and you'll see we are way behind

I think we should go mids too, but I’m trying to work out what the thinking is if we don’t. The Lions midfield has been massive beneficiaries of Father/Son and good trading (Neale, Dunkley), Raynor is one of the few early draft picks doing the work for them in there. Pick 5 will be a gamble regardless, but if a star kid is available I hope we pick them. Just saying it’s possible our list management team think Windsor, Tholstrup, Rivers, McVee is a star midfield of the future hence going tall. Also if we’re going for now, a mid makes more sense, which I think we should.

Edited October 28 by deejammin'

[DubDee 25,863]

47 minutes ago, Mel Bourne said:

Certainly a selfless player who pulls off some pretty miraculous stuff, but not enough mongrel for my mine. Pretty sure the Saints are going to pick him up, anyway. 

He is known to go missing over Easter weekend though

[mo64 5,874]

When you look at the Premiership teams of recent years, the best key forward in each team was recruited from another club: Daniher, Cameron, Ben Brown, Lynch. In the case of Collingwood, Mihocek was a mature age recruit whilst McStay was out injured. And GWS were a contender this year with Hogan also fitting the criteria.

Harry Armstrong doesn't strike me as a Jeremy Cameron or Buddy Franklin level talent. Get a mid in who can make an impact next year, and if JVR, Petty, Turner or Jeffo aren't up to it, then target a key forward from another club when the need arises.

 

 

 

[DeeSpencer 25,707]

1 hour ago, mo64 said:

When you look at the Premiership teams of recent years, the best key forward in each team was recruited from another club: Daniher, Cameron, Ben Brown, Lynch. In the case of Collingwood, Mihocek was a mature age recruit whilst McStay was out injured. And GWS were a contender this year with Hogan also fitting the criteria.

Harry Armstrong doesn't strike me as a Jeremy Cameron or Buddy Franklin level talent. Get a mid in who can make an impact next year, and if JVR, Petty, Turner or Jeffo aren't up to it, then target a key forward from another club when the need arises.

 

 

 

That's a good strategy if you're Collingwood or Richmond or any other big destination club that has something to offer to lure superstars, but BBB was a bit of a miracle that he was both available and healthy in 2021 and we've been trying to replace him for at least 2 years now and struck out on multiple options.

I understand the consensus seems to be that Armstrong isn't a star level prospect but there's enough to suggest he's at least a fairly good one.

Windsor had some success and Kolt played a few good games but you're overestimating just how much impact these mids will have in year 1. Aside from maybe Sid Draper I reckon they're all much more raw than people think. A lot of defensive running work for guys like Smillie and Langford. Jagga and Murphy Reid need size. Bo Allen might be a ball use problem if he's playing half back.

[spirit of norm smith 16,457]

22 hours ago, DubDee said:

Lloyd has certainly talked him up at the right time

As the best rated tall fwd he’ll probably go top 10 to a team that really need a young tall but I’d be staggered if JT rates him top 5 

Yes I’d be staggered or indeed COMPLETELY amazed if JT chose Armstrong at 5. He’s good but we need high quality midfielders at 5 AND at 9.  JT has to back in his prior choices of JVR and Jeffo. 

[whatwhat say what 22,755]

faith in jt to deliver with two top ten picks

[58er 6,439]

On 26/10/2024 at 15:52, demoncat said:

I can’t speak for anyone else but personally I haven’t seen enough from him to suggest that he has the competitiveness and aggression to make it as a key fwd at AFL level 

And while he’s solidly built for his age he’s not coming in as physically developed as a say a Jed Walter type, another first round pick who struggled at AFL level in his first year 

I think a lot of Dees fans are just worried about using a first round pick and ending up with another Weid (and potentially Jefferson)

Whereas we have the opportunity to draft more likely midfield types with both 5 and 9, and set our midfield up for the next decade alongside Rivers, Windsor and Tholstrup 

You obviously missed the email on Jeffo so hope he proves you as a doubter wrong if not 2025 then 2026. 

You should know drafting KPP is a generally 59/50 chance and a longer return wait for success. Tom Hawkins took till the 2011 to become a player for example. 
JVR is on target and I believe Disco is also plus Jeffo about to blossom.

To consider a KPF is crucial to our cream even more than mids as either the wraps on Tauru or Armstrong are great.

Mids are good to get and pick 9 will get it’s a good/ great one. And we can always target one on the trade as three is do many. 

Let’s  face it goals are our enemy and anyone who can help up forward be it a mid or Forward KKP should be considered seriously. 

Looking forward to draft night and JT to shine again. 

[Demon Disciple 12,124]

5 hours ago, DubDee said:

He is known to go missing over Easter weekend though

I guess we’ll no doubt want Sunday games then 😁

[FrothiesLiam 61]

6 hours ago, mo64 said:

When you look at the Premiership teams of recent years, the best key forward in each team was recruited from another club: Daniher, Cameron, Ben Brown, Lynch. In the case of Collingwood, Mihocek was a mature age recruit whilst McStay was out injured. And GWS were a contender this year with Hogan also fitting the criteria.

Harry Armstrong doesn't strike me as a Jeremy Cameron or Buddy Franklin level talent. Get a mid in who can make an impact next year, and if JVR, Petty, Turner or Jeffo aren't up to it, then target a key forward from another club when the need arises.

 

 

 

This line of thought has me wondering how the list management and talent scouts see Wade derksen as an option are we in for the long haul with the pursuit of Derk if so then surely mids