Draft night - How it may work out?

[DeeSpencer 26,266]

1 hour ago, Mouseymoo said:

Would an offer of pick #5 for Richmond's pick #10 & #11 be a thing that could happen? 

It’s not our style but if Langford, Lalor and FOS are off the board I’m making that trade right away. 5 or 10 are worth about the same.

Then moving 11 for the Eagles future first and hopefully something (F3) that gets us in the draft in the 40’s if possible.

9, 10, 45 and the eagles future first covering the loss of our future first. That would be good list managment.

[Roger Mellie 4,173]

Matthew Lloyd pumping up the tyres of Harry Armstrong (The Age):

Harry Armstrong

Haileybury coach and former Essendon champion Matthew Lloyd: “I’ve always said he’s the best mark I’ve seen come through in my time [at Haileybury], which is a big call … but since joining us as a year 10, he’s shown some amazing signs.

“He’s very unselfish, hits the ball hard, and times his leads really well. Some [developing] key forwards can be quite placid, but he is aggressive as well and brings everyone down with him.

“He’s worked extremely hard on his goalkicking, too. He used to be probably a 50-50 proposition, or even worse, but now he’s closer to seven or eight out of 10.”

[buck_nekkid 6,068]

Draft Night…

boring ‘on the clock’ drivel, fillers about those selected, plenty of ads.

thats how it will go.

except for 5 and nine, when new heroes are announced….

[Demonstone 23,336]

Today's 'Age' has this to say.  They're guessing just as much as all of us are.

 

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/pick-a-winner-who-your-team-will-target-in-the-afl-draft-20241021-p5kjy5.html

 

 Midfielders Harvey Langford, Sid Draper and Josh Smillie could get through to their first selection, while key forward Harry Armstrong, defenders Alix Tauru and Luke Trainor, and classy midfielder Xavier Lindsay might be in the mix at their second pick. Hore will score another one-year deal, but Smith will be delisted. Judd McVee will be upgraded to the primary list, and Andy Moniz-Wakefield can no longer be a category B rookie.

 

 

[Redleg 41,933]

I am visiting Palm Cove on sunday for the day and recall the last time i was there was on day two of the Jacko draft. While my wife was shopping, I was outside counting down to our pick at 30 as I recall.

I liked Rivers, as I had posted on DL, solely because of his video highlights and the comments of guys who knew about him. 

As we got to his pick and he was still there, I hoped JT would take him. When I heard his name announced, I yelled out and my wife ran out of a shop and asked if I was ok and I told her we got Rivers and she just stared at me.

I am hoping this is an omen, even though this time I am not there on draft day, that we get great players in the draft this year.

Sorry if the story was boring.

[old dee 23,998]

19 minutes ago, Redleg said:

I am visiting Palm Cove on sunday for the day and recall the last time i was there was on day two of the Jacko draft. While my wife was shopping, I was outside counting down to our pick at 30 as I recall.

I liked Rivers, as I had posted on DL, solely because of his video highlights and the comments of guys who knew about him. 

As we got to his pick and he was still there, I hoped JT would take him. When I heard his name announced, I yelled out and my wife ran out of a shop and asked if I was ok and I told her we got Rivers and she just stared at me.

I am hoping this is an omen, even though this time I am not there on draft day, that we get great players in the draft this year.

Sorry if the story was boring.

So who are you wanting this year Mr. Leg?

[Redleg 41,933]

1 hour ago, old dee said:

So who are you wanting this year Mr. Leg?

I haven’t got a clue at this stage.

As I said above, I do like the video highlights of Tauru and he could be something special.

[ChaserJ 5,169]

1 hour ago, Redleg said:

I am visiting Palm Cove on sunday for the day and recall the last time i was there was on day two of the Jacko draft. While my wife was shopping, I was outside counting down to our pick at 30 as I recall.

I liked Rivers, as I had posted on DL, solely because of his video highlights and the comments of guys who knew about him. 

As we got to his pick and he was still there, I hoped JT would take him. When I heard his name announced, I yelled out and my wife ran out of a shop and asked if I was ok and I told her we got Rivers and she just stared at me.

I am hoping this is an omen, even though this time I am not there on draft day, that we get great players in the draft this year.

Sorry if the story was boring.

I was watching Brian Lara being interviewed by the late, great Dean Jones in St Kilda that night.  I had the Fox coverage on mute streaming on my phone.  Had to stifle a Riv related cheer whilst Lara was recalling how he retook the test hs record against England. 

[Mouseymoo 368]

24 minutes ago, Redleg said:

I haven’t got a clue at this stage.

As I said above, I do like the video highlights of Tauru and he could be something special.

What are your thoughts on Travaglia, do you see shades of Rivers in his highlights package? 

[hardtack 10,849]

On 20/10/2024 at 23:03, deespicable me said:

Either of these two would be fantastic.

Both would be better!

(Smith & Smillie - for context)

[hardtack 10,849]

7 hours ago, Redleg said:

Sorry if the story was boring.

Yaaaaaaaaaaawwwwwnnn!!

😉Just kidding… an enjoyable anecdote that’s probably needed at this point in the thread… the speculation does my head in, but at least this time there are enough good draftees to go around for everyone!

[picket fence 17,964]

On 20/10/2024 at 15:07, KozzyCan said:

Armstrong doesn't look like anything special tbh.

Agree 100% will be a blunderous move if we even contemplate taking him!

[picket fence 17,964]

On 20/10/2024 at 23:03, deespicable me said:

Jagga Smith looks a gun. Very similar to Serong, which is exactly what we need to compliment our slow midfield. I'd be wrapped to get him at 5. Josh Smillie also looks a gun but he is a bull. Would learn heaps off Trac as he is of a similar mould. Either of these two would be fantastic.

WHY NOT BOTH? 🤩🤩

[layzie 34,326]

More importantly what do we do with ourselves for 4 rounds until our next pick?

Might be worth doing an all nighter the night before Day 1 and then just sleeping until the night of day 2.. 

[old dee 23,998]

5 hours ago, picket fence said:

Agree 100% will be a blunderous move if we even contemplate taking him!

I have no idea of his worth however if we choice him what would that say about Jefferson? We already have one project KPF I doubt we need two. 

Edited October 24, 2024 by old dee

[Dee*ceiving 1,724]

On 20/10/2024 at 13:21, demoncat said:

Agreed 

Jackson is a gun and maybe we don’t win the flag if we don’t draft him, but I think you can argue that his impact in the 3rd qtr has been overstated somewhat 

And how handy would Serong, Young or Green have been for us this year? Or for the next 10 years?

Young especially is the sliding doors moment for me - I rate him so highly and it looks like he’s finally reaching the potential that he showed back in his draft year

Wouldn't want the fact that Jackson left cloud our views on him. 

In my mind, we don't win the flag in 2021 without him. Max flagged late in the season 2022 to 2024 but was absolutely flying in 2021. This is not a fluke.

I'd also suggest we win the flag in 2023 with Jackson in red and blue.

[BAMF 4,433]

1 hour ago, Dee*ceiving said:

Wouldn't want the fact that Jackson left cloud our views on him. 

In my mind, we don't win the flag in 2021 without him. Max flagged late in the season 2022 to 2024 but was absolutely flying in 2021. This is not a fluke.

I'd also suggest we win the flag in 2023 with Jackson in red and blue.

Good ruck/forwards are unicorns. 

Luke gets under rated because he good but not great at both positions.

[Redleg 41,933]

3 hours ago, old dee said:

I have no idea of his worth however if we choice him what would that say about Jefferson? We already have one project KPF I doubt we need two. 

Three. Kentfield. 

[old dee 23,998]

16 hours ago, Redleg said:

Three. Kentfield. 

Spot on, my mistake Mr. Leg. 

[Palace Dees 2,352]

I can't help it!  I just know there is going be be more wheeling and dealing up to and come draft night. I cant see Richmond taking all 8 picks into this draft. I expect they will trade at least one of their 20's picks for a future first rounder, but I'm thinking also, they may consider the following:

We swap picks 5 & 9 for their picks 6, 11 and 24 (first pick in R2 - very valuable) 

This will leave Richmond 1, 5, 9, 10, 18, 20 and 23 (or a future first rounder - giving them 2 in '25)

Given the expected order is so hard to predict, it shouldn't upset our plans too much, except give us an extra qualty pick (Alex Dodson 🤞)

I see it as a win for both clubs.

I have no doubt we could get a '25 first rounder for pick 24 if we chose to sell before day 2, if we wanted to. 

Edited October 29, 2024 by Palace Dees
additional info

[Nascent 9,320]

5 minutes ago, Palace Dees said:

I can't help it!  I just know there is going be be more wheeling and dealing up to and come draft night. I cant see Richmond taking all 8 picks into this draft. I expect they will trade at least one of their 20's picks for a future first rounder, but I'm thinking also, they may consider the following:

We swap picks 5 & 9 for their picks 6, 11 and 24 (first pick in R2 - very valuable) 

This will leave Richmond 1, 5, 9, 10, 18, 20 and 23 (or a future first rounder - giving them 2 in '25)

Given the expected order is so hard to predict, it shouldn't upset our plans too much, except give us an extra qualty pick (Alex Dodson 🤞)

I see it as a win for both clubs.

Funnily enough, I'd think they would prefer to give us pick 23 than 24. Like you said, 24 is valuable and they can probably flip it for a future 1st with another team.

[Palace Dees 2,352]

1 minute ago, Nascent said:

Funnily enough, I'd think they would prefer to give us pick 23 than 24. Like you said, 24 is valuable and they can probably flip it for a future 1st with another team.

Agree. That's why I was editing when you posted. I'd prefer 24 over 23 for that reason, but 23 would still be great. 😁

[old55 23,833]

9 minutes ago, Palace Dees said:

I can't help it!  I just know there is going be be more wheeling and dealing up to and come draft night. I cant see Richmond taking all 8 picks into this draft. I expect they will trade at least one of their 20's picks for a future first rounder, but I'm thinking also, they may consider the following:

We swap picks 5 & 9 for their picks 6, 11 and 24 (first pick in R2 - very valuable) 

This will leave Richmond 1, 5, 9, 10, 18, 20 and 23 (or a future first rounder - giving them 2 in '25)

Given the expected order is so hard to predict, it shouldn't upset our plans too much, except give us an extra qualty pick (Alex Dodson 🤞)

I see it as a win for both clubs.

I have no doubt we could get a '25 first rounder for pick 24 if we chose to sell before day 2, if we wanted to.

The only incentive for Richmond to make that trade is because they want the same player we want at 5 and the same player we want at 9 (they also have 10). 

Maybe they do, but if so, we'd never make that trade and give up the players we want just to get pick 24.

Richmond are picking straight after us, we're not trading with them.

[Palace Dees 2,352]

3 minutes ago, old55 said:

The only incentive for Richmond to make that trade is because they want the same player we want at 5 and the same player we want at 9 (they also have 10). 

Maybe they do, but if so, we'd never make that trade and give up the players we want just to get pick 24.

Richmond are picking straight after us, we're not trading with them.

According to those that know, 24 or 23 in this draft more valuable than usual, including next years. Also, phantom drafts differ wildly, as I'm sure you know, so there is no obvious order. Because of the depth of talent, even if we lose the clubs next higher rated player in one of those swaps, I expect the next option would only be a 1 or 2% rating behind.  

All hyperthetical of course and I'd be happy if it did or didn't happen. Just slightly happier if it did. 

[Nascent 9,320]

15 minutes ago, old55 said:

The only incentive for Richmond to make that trade is because they want the same player we want at 5 and the same player we want at 9 (they also have 10). 

Maybe they do, but if so, we'd never make that trade and give up the players we want just to get pick 24.

Richmond are picking straight after us, we're not trading with them.

I suspect you're most likely correct but there's another reason that Richmond and us would agree to a trade like this, or something similar.

That is to deny other teams the opportunity to deal with us and beat them to that player.

Most clubs would probably have a good understanding of which teams are targeting which players. This could lead to a discussion with Richmond to highlight the mutual benefits of a trade. 

Richmond might like a player at 10, for examples sake lets say its Travaglia and we also have no interest in taking him. We could be in discussions with GWS for 15, 16 with GWS targeting Travaglia as their man. Richmond may look to package up pick 11 with 23 (or whatever extra pick would sate us) for pick 9 to prevent this from happening.

We saw this last year when Essendon traded with Geelong to get Caddy. Essendon were one spot behind Geelong and gave them a 2nd round pick to move up that one pick. Geelong were clearly not going to take Caddy, took the extra currency and selected O'Sullivan. It was later stated that Essendon made that move to prevent rivals from getting access to Caddy by attempting to trade with Geelong.