The Run Home

[titan_uranus 24,963]

After today I think it looks like this:

Win, and we go to at least 7th. Whether we go up more depends on if Brisbane lose and whether we catch Port or Geelong on percentage. We’re 0.5% behind Port and 1.3% behind Geelong.

Lose and we’re 10th, unless we shed 5.5% and slide below Hawthorn.

IMO, our games are almost in order of descending difficulty from here. Fremantle in Perth, GWS and Dogs at Marvel seem the three hardest. Port, GC and Collingwood IMO the easier three. 

[D4Life 2,435]

14 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

After today I think it looks like this:

Win, and we go to at least 7th. Whether we go up more depends on if Brisbane lose and whether we catch Port or Geelong on percentage. We’re 0.5% behind Port and 1.3% behind Geelong.

Lose and we’re 10th, unless we shed 5.5% and slide below Hawthorn.

IMO, our games are almost in order of descending difficulty from here. Fremantle in Perth, GWS and Dogs at Marvel seem the three hardest. Port, GC and Collingwood IMO the easier three. 

Gold Coast are unbeaten at home, feels like we’ve lost to the Pies in every clutch match we play against them of recent times!

Tough run home will take close to our best to win the 3/4 games we need to win to make finals! 

However we finish up, plenty of positive signs in the last few weeks, a full pre season into Trac, Oliver, Petty, and Salem should position us well for next season!

[spirit of norm smith 16,222]

AFL.com.au's predicted final ladder*

1. Sydney
2. Carlton
3. Brisbane
4. Geelong
5. Fremantle
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Greater Western Sydney
8. Essendon

9. Hawthorn
10. Port Adelaide
11. Gold Coast
12. Melbourne
13. Collingwood
14. St Kilda
15. Adelaide
16. North Melbourne
17. West Coast
18. Richmond

[roy11 3,825]

1 hour ago, spirit of norm smith said:

AFL.com.au's predicted final ladder*

1. Sydney
2. Carlton
3. Brisbane
4. Geelong
5. Fremantle
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Greater Western Sydney
8. Essendon

9. Hawthorn
10. Port Adelaide
11. Gold Coast
12. Melbourne
13. Collingwood
14. St Kilda
15. Adelaide
16. North Melbourne
17. West Coast
18. Richmond

I just did the autotipping on squiggle, top 7 was basically the same but just a minor difference of Port being in and Essendon out (which i much prefer tbh)

9th - Essendon 12 wins 1 Draw and
10-13 Melb, Gold, Hawks on 12 wins 
13 - Collingwood

I am sure the computer will change it mind each week though as this season been too hard to predict. 

[Lucifers Hero 39,406]

This thread has gone very quite so I assume posters think we are out of the running for the 8.

My optimism and predictions for last week were way off the mark.  Nonetheless we can still make it.

A few of the top teams sustained significant injuries last week so I have included some info.

 

 

• Plenty of 8pt games.
• Top 4 not yet set.
• Port/Ess could slide out of the 8 with WBD/Dees/Hawks to replace them.
• Coll almost fully fit but very tough run.

Our destiny is still in our hands - lets see how much the team wants it.

[Demon17 5,179]

5 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

This thread has gone very quite so I assume posters think we are out of the running for the 8.

My optimism and predictions for last week were way off the mark.  Nonetheless we can still make it.

A few of the top teams sustained significant injuries last week so I have included some info.

 

 

• Plenty of 8pt games.
• Top 4 not yet set.
• Port/Ess could slide out of the 8 with WBD/Dees/Hawks to replace them.
• Coll almost fully fit but very tough run.

Our destiny is still in our hands - lets see how much the team wants it.

You may be right but I have dees finishing 5 even before last game and had  assumed a loss to freo.

I will stand by this  but withdraw if we lose to gws.

Before last week we had a solid month of form.

[deanox 9,896]

1 hour ago, Lucifers Hero said:

This thread has gone very quite so I assume posters think we are out of the running for the 8.

My optimism and predictions for last week were way off the mark.  Nonetheless we can still make it.

A few of the top teams sustained significant injuries last week so I have included some info.

 

 

• Plenty of 8pt games.
• Top 4 not yet set.
• Port/Ess could slide out of the 8 with WBD/Dees/Hawks to replace them.
• Coll almost fully fit but very tough run.

Our destiny is still in our hands - lets see how much the team wants it.

Tholstrup pretty chuffed to be above Petracca in the list of significant injuries.

[Lucifers Hero 39,406]

14 minutes ago, deanox said:

Tholstrup pretty chuffed to be above Petracca in the list of significant injuries.

Very good pick up😊

[Lucifers Hero 39,406]

1 hour ago, Demon17 said:

You may be right but I have dees finishing 5 even before last game and had  assumed a loss to freo.

I will stand by this  but withdraw if we lose to gws.

Before last week we had a solid month of form.

I agree with you that we can make the 8 and 🤞 about 5th. 

Not sure many DL's do.

Edited July 24 by Lucifers Hero

[Adam The God 30,080]

4 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

I agree with you that we can make the 8 and 🤞 about 5th. 

Not sure many DL's do.

I think we'll finish in the 8. 😀

[whatwhat say what 22,593]

what's so good - and bad? - is that our run home is up against fellow sides jockeying for positions 5-13

so destiny is in our hands

a bit of fortune going our way at the end of a home and away season would make a welcome change

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

The season is dead. I’d rather lose respectfully, blood the youth, get surgeries prior to pre season, and get a top 6-8 draft pick and focus on 2025. 
 

 

[Adam The God 30,080]

35 minutes ago, Gawndy the Great said:

The season is dead. I’d rather lose respectfully, blood the youth, get surgeries prior to pre season, and get a top 6-8 draft pick and focus on 2025. 
 

 

This was my thinking a few weeks back, but given our turnaround in form (minus last week), I'm firmly in the makes finals and win a final camp.

[Jaded No More 68,855]

55 minutes ago, Gawndy the Great said:

The season is dead. I’d rather lose respectfully, blood the youth, get surgeries prior to pre season, and get a top 6-8 draft pick and focus on 2025. 
 

 

The only better outcome is making finals and winning one. Get that bloody finals monkey off our backs. It’s unlikely, but it’s not impossible. 
Plenty of mediocre teams who we could end up facing in a week one elimination. 
 

This is the least obvious season we’ve had in years in terms of who wins the flag. Swans are good but not great, especially at the MCG. And the rest are up and down like a yo-yo. 
 

We could easily go 0-5 or 5-0 from here. Nothing would shock me anymore. 

Of course the MOST important thing left to do in 2024 is to win round 24!
 

[DubDee 25,464]

On 23/07/2024 at 07:38, spirit of norm smith said:

AFL.com.au's predicted final ladder*

1. Sydney
2. Carlton
3. Brisbane
4. Geelong
5. Fremantle
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Greater Western Sydney
8. Essendon

9. Hawthorn
10. Port Adelaide
11. Gold Coast
12. Melbourne
13. Collingwood
14. St Kilda
15. Adelaide
16. North Melbourne
17. West Coast
18. Richmond

Pick 7

Not bad

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

some may see it as a monkey - some may see it as context...

Edited July 24 by Engorged Onion

[Adam The God 30,080]

1 minute ago, Engorged Onion said:

some may see it as a monkey - some may see it as context...

I completely agree. We didn't lose our last four finals because we struggled with the pressure. We lost them because we failed to execute our goalkicking. I don't think there is a genuine monkey on the back, but when the media speak enough about it, it may start to influence the players.

[praha 11,226]

20 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

I completely agree. We didn't lose our last four finals because we struggled with the pressure. We lost them because we failed to execute our goalkicking. I don't think there is a genuine monkey on the back, but when the media speak enough about it, it may start to influence the players.

we literally struggled with the pressure.

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

19 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

I completely agree. We didn't lose our last four finals because we struggled with the pressure. We lost them because we failed to execute our goalkicking. I don't think there is a genuine monkey on the back, but when the media speak enough about it, it may start to influence the players.

Yeah goal kicking and yeah to being injured, both coming into matches and clearly in matches.. but you cant ever ever ever use injuries as an excuse - because you know, all teams have injuries. I mean it makes not a jot of difference to the team that Petracca is out, or Lever at times, or Gawn, or Brayshaw... in 24' it just means we don't have depth and have recruited poorly. just like when you get on the ground, well, you know, you've chosen to play, and your physiological movements are no longer relevant to being restricted or not...

Collingwood are tracking poorly -because they're tracking poorly, and overrated, not at all because they have a significant injury list - just like Sydney are tracking really well and not overrated at all, because they don't have a significant injury list.

Now... the tigers circumstance... is interesting - everyone acknowledges there are significant reasons and context to Yze's coaching tenure - due to injury - so what it seems is that there is some mythical and magical 'appropriate' injured player to fit player ratio, that is acceptable to use as a legitimate reason as to why a team, is playing the way that it does over a sustained period of time...

Someone really needs to do an injury ladder and post it up against the current ladder...

[Lucifers Hero 39,406]

14 hours ago, Gawndy the Great said:

The season is dead. I’d rather lose respectfully, blood the youth, get surgeries prior to pre season, and get a top 6-8 draft pick and focus on 2025.

No way!!  Fans want the team to be ruthless and not have a 'losing' mentality. 

We are blooding the youth.  They will get so much from a final at the G packed with demon fans.  And what difference does a few places in the draft order make especially in such an even draft. 

 

This is a very even finals race.  My hope is to make the 8 and win a final then Que sera sera.  If we don't so be it, I'll be happy with the season.

Fight the good fight, Demons!!

Edited July 24 by Lucifers Hero

[Colm 2,053]

13 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

The only better outcome is making finals and winning one. Get that bloody finals monkey off our backs. It’s unlikely, but it’s not impossible. 
Plenty of mediocre teams who we could end up facing in a week one elimination. 
 

This is the least obvious season we’ve had in years in terms of who wins the flag. Swans are good but not great, especially at the MCG. And the rest are up and down like a yo-yo. 
 

We could easily go 0-5 or 5-0 from here. Nothing would shock me anymore. 

Of course the MOST important thing left to do in 2024 is to win round 24!
 

I’m hoping we win every game. I don’t think anybody is actually hoping we lose games for a better draft pick. Even is they say that come Saturday night I’m sure everybody will be cheering us to win. 
 

But in the overall picture I won’t be gutted if we miss finals. I get what you’re saying about getting the monkey off our backs but I don’t see us winning the GF. 
 

So if we win one final we probably then travel interstate to a top four team. Another belting by Freo would create an even bigger monkey on our backs. 
 

Two weeks of finals gives us the same amount of time off as we have had the past two years. A longer off season will allow us to get any surgeries out of the way early and give everybody the best chance at a good preseason.
We have seen recently that the deeper teams go in September it has a knock on effect to the start of the next season 

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

I'm not understanding the thinking that when you are 2 wins off 2nd then we're ostensibly out of the final race.

For those that think like this, can you help me explain your logic?

[leave it to deever 17,511]

14 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

The only better outcome is making finals and winning one. Get that bloody finals monkey off our backs. It’s unlikely, but it’s not impossible. 
Plenty of mediocre teams who we could end up facing in a week one elimination. 
 

This is the least obvious season we’ve had in years in terms of who wins the flag. Swans are good but not great, especially at the MCG. And the rest are up and down like a yo-yo. 
 

We could easily go 0-5 or 5-0 from here. Nothing would shock me anymore. 

Of course the MOST important thing left to do in 2024 is to win round 24!
 

I think with our low percentage it's probably going to require three more wins for us to play finals.

We will have to be playing our very best football for that to transpire as we will play some strong teams in good form.

If we do make finals it will be a result of us finding some form at the right time and given how close the comp is any team is a chance to win their respective finals ( excluding playing the Swans at the Scg). Although to be fair Sydney have become a little unstuck at the wrong time of the year.

Mathematically as of right now we are in a position that our final's birth is in our own hands and technically there is the possibility of 15 wins which may result in a top four spot.

This weekend is must win. I believe if we do win this round than we will definitely be playing finals.

It will be great to be back on our home turf and I hope we can shake the damage that the docker's have inflicted upon us once again.

It's not going to be easy but I believe our best footy is good enough to beat any team. Let's just hope we can find and play it.

Go Dees.

Ps Also if do make finals it means we have been playing some very good consistent footy which in a notoriously close comp could mean quite a lot.

Edited July 24 by leave it to deever

[RedBlueandTrue 359]

9 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

I'm not understanding the thinking that when you are 2 wins off 2nd then we're ostensibly out of the final race.

For those that think like this, can you help me explain your logic?

I think the manner of the defeats to Freo change perspectives a bit. If they had both been close losses then everything would be a bit more rosy, not only because of percentage.

It is funny though, if we are to bounce back this week we'll actually be tracking pretty similarly to the darling Hawks - who got done in similar fashion to us a few weeks ago.

The fact that it's so open with so many teams in it means that if you get on a roll, top 4 is still open for most. The downside is that a few losses in a row and finals is likely lost completely. 

With all teams being so close, the fact that we are missing Trac, have Gawn looking a bit proppy and Oliver perhaps not at his game-breaking best creates a feeling that maybe to compete with those other teams would be a bridge too far.

A good win against GWS and the mentality will switch again completely!

[Roost it far 8,122]

13 hours ago, Binmans PA said:

I completely agree. We didn't lose our last four finals because we struggled with the pressure. We lost them because we failed to execute our goalkicking. I don't think there is a genuine monkey on the back, but when the media speak enough about it, it may start to influence the players.

Really? Why do you think we missed so many easy shots on goal in the Collingwood final if it wasn’t the pressure? Why else did we literally 💩 the bed against Carlton if it wasn’t the pressure?