The Run Home

[Demon17 5,188]

20 hours ago, FearTheBeard said:

My ladder predictor has us either missing the 8 on 13 wins because of percentage or finsihing 6th on 14 wins.

To get the 14 wins would take a massive effort from a very young team. 

If we make it, we will have earnt it.

The past 3 weeks have us as an 'in form' team that others will be fearing.

Sunday will tell if this is so.

[Demon17 5,188]

3 hours ago, Roost it far said:

It's the loss to Carlton that annoys me the most, firstly giving them a 6 goal start and then the late umpiring when we had them on toast.....

I haven't given up on causing some carnage in this years finals yet. If we can hit the finals fit there's no one in the 8 I don't think we can beat.....for now just beat Freo. There's a real John Northey vibe about us atm, I think we like being the hunters.

John Northey 1987.

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

2 hours ago, DubDee said:

we lost to Freo by almost 100 pts at home and some people we could beat them away?

I know we had an off night and all but we haven’t beaten a good team since round 8

They are not a 15 goal better side than us. We were beyond putrid that day, we are a totally different side now. It wouldn’t surprise me if we knocked them off in Perth Dub.

[Demon17 5,188]

2 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

None of the lads on First Crack have predicted us to make the 8. That includes Joey Montagna who's been our number 1 fan and defender the last 2 years and King who was the first analyst to jump on the MFC bandwagon (and the first to jump off) in 2017/2018.

I think this group will enjoy the tag of under dog going into the final weeks. We already saw it in the first 5 weeks of the season when everyone wrote off us due to our culture, but we responded with a 4-1 start and a magnificent Adelaide Oval double. I can't explain what went wrong between the Carlton game through to Kings B'day.

If we are to make the finals, and play an elimination final (particularly interstate), I think there will be less pressure on the boys this time around. There won't be that fear of going out in straight sets and that might help in their conversion around goals which was the main reason we didn't win a final.

If the Freo game doesn't work out, then the GWS game is essentially last chance saloon due to our percentage. 

Their analysis supposes the changes to the 8 from last year will be of a number that has never(hardlyever) occurre,  And as they both said, their predicted 8 will be wrong for sure.  They both had flaky Power in the 8 for example.

I reckon the 8 will be as it is now in terms of teams making it. Positions to be determined.

 

2 in and 2 out from 2023- Pies and Power out.

[FearTheBeard 1,223]

1 hour ago, Demon17 said:

The past 3 weeks have us as an 'in form' team that others will be fearing.

Sunday will tell if this is so.

We don't need to beat Fremantle in perth, its probably our hardest game left.

We do need to put in a good performance to show that we can match it with everyone and that will carry forward into the last 5 games.

Freo is still a very winnable game especially if its wet over there.

[Little Goffy 14,546]

21 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Not much to do on this horrid Melbourne winter day.

So put this together for discussion. 

Kind of incredible that if you include the game just played, we finish the season by playing every team from 5th to 12th.

As to our final 8 chances... well, it almost defies analysis because our fate is so completely in our own hands.

I tried. I turned out a few paragraphs looking at each team, but it just got silly. Long story short;

4 wins, 2 losses - we play finals, and probably have a home final, too. Nice and simple.

3 wins, 3 losses - if any one of Port, Footscray or Gold Coast get 4 wins, we're cooked. Nice and simple. We'd want our three wins to be the three games against these teams!

Collingwood aren't a contender because the devil has finally come to take their soul. Their supporters might seem upbeat but that is only because they don't know what 'eternity' means. It means you have just two good players under 24yrs old, and the devil is most certainly from Tasmania.

Hawthorn never had a soul for the devil to take, and will miss out on finals by percentage because they are flat track bullies. Tasmania will still come for them, just enough to ensure their rebuild falls just a liiiiitle bit short and they get stuck in the levitating potato mid-table zone for a decade.

[Adam The God 30,259]

So if we beat Freo and GWS, I reckon we'll be 4th by the end of Round 20.

I suspect Brisbane will lose to both Sydney and Gold Coast, while Essendon will lose to either or both of Adelaide and St Kilda at Marvel.

Edited July 16 by Binmans PA

[PaulRB 6,363]

Curious: Is there any chance Trac could be back in 6-7 weeks, I.e. primed for first final (assuming we make it)?

is that what “indefinite”, rather than “season”, means? 

[Adam The God 30,259]

1 minute ago, PaulRB said:

Curious: Is there any chance Trac could be back in 6-7 weeks, I.e. primed for first final (assuming we make it)?

is that what “indefinite”, rather than “season”, means? 

Exactly, that's what I've been thinking.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,833]

10 minutes ago, PaulRB said:

Curious: Is there any chance Trac could be back in 6-7 weeks, I.e. primed for first final (assuming we make it)?

is that what “indefinite”, rather than “season”, means? 

It’s a good question.

You’d imagine Trac resting up for the entirety of July and most of August would be sufficient recovery time to have him back training in September. However he’d be so un match fit for a final so one would think we won’t see him again.

Whether we can go anywhere without Trac remains to be seen. Our injury list is in otherwise good shape, touch wood.

[Oxdee 357]

On 15/07/2024 at 15:50, seventyfour said:

• Fremantle will bounce back. Not an easy task
• GWS still have enough talent to be a significant challenge
• Dogs are playing well
• Port are competitng for a top 8 spot and have an incredible midfield
• No-one has managed to beat Gold Coast at home
• Collingwood always find a way to beat us, even when they suck. Round 23 2017 anyone?

Every game is winnable but we could just as easily go 0-6. I reckon we'd miss on percentage going 3-3.

No team since the introduction of GWS has missed the 8 by winning 13 games. No possible way this year is going to be an exception. 13 games will guarantee finals. 
8th will still be a disappointment for this team but 3 more wins and we play finals 

[rpfc 28,433]

We are now a young team that is going to have days that we simply don’t perform or perform but still lose against a superior team.

My expectation is that we play 4 of the 6 in the same vein of this last 3 weeks. That may mean we win only twice and not make it.

I think expectations the last few days are outside of what the team can deliver.

[whatwhat say what 22,757]

16 minutes ago, Oxdee said:

No team since the introduction of GWS has missed the 8 by winning 13 games. No possible way this year is going to be an exception. 13 games will guarantee finals. 
8th will still be a disappointment for this team but 3 more wins and we play finals 

different era with 1 extra game per home and away season with the advent of 'gil's round'

13 wins is the new 12 wins

[Rab D Nesbitt 8,367]

Since we played Brisbane I've decided to just enjoy each game in isolation without worrying about their greater implications and have to say it's made going to the football more enjoyable.  

[leave it to deever 17,511]

This thread sounds like a promo for "elder nappies,".

Oh the things we have to look forward to.

[binman 42,972]

6 hours ago, Roost it far said:

I know loading is a dirty word around here but it fits our formline. Cameron Ling on the ABC Sunday pre coverage talked about clubs in the hunt putting in a serious block of training mid year and then tapering off coming into finals so as to be cherry ripe. He mentioned the risk is you likely cop some losses along the way. It could also easily explain Carlton and Sydney's drop off of late. 

It fits our form line for the fourth year in a row.

When I first started discussing load management in 2021 it's fair to say I copped a fair bit.

What's crazy is ive copped it every year since - so much so that I barely raise it anymore because I can't be bothered getting pilloried.

(It's ironic actually because many of the posters lampooning and shutting down such conversations complain any criticisms of the club they make are policed and shut down  - cue the face palm and vomit emojis)

Crazy because you would have to actively ignore the evidence to be so wilfully ignorant. 

I recall mutiple posters, even in the face of iffrefutable evidence, say they won't believe loading happens (which morphed for many into, maybe a factor but.....) until a coach or ex player comes out and says it happens. 

Ok, well it's starting now to be discussed by such people.

Good to hear Cameron Ling come out and discuss it.

Del Santo alluded to it on the ABC in the early part of the season, saying it's all about playing your best footy in August and using the tapering for the olympics as an ananlogy

Hopefully next season the discussion about high performance programs and load management  can move from being a 'dirty word',  or a running Demonland joke, to a nuanced discussion that factors in load management into the analysis of our performances. 

And as I've noted it might also open up discussions like the different high performance philosophies (manage and rotate, no rotation, squads, play through niggles etc) and an analysis of our high performance program.

One benefit would be less of the hair on fire, the sky is falling, play the kids, we are a joke, sack goody, it's all about 2025 etc etc that dominates Demonland for a couple of months in the middle of every season.

I mean, sure I skew positive, but some of the takes on where we were at coming into the bye, and even after our WIN against the Roos, have already proved to be utterly ridiculous - even if we don’t go on to push for a flag.

Silly, vibes based, emotive stuff - but barely commented on, let alone anyone getting called on it

Yet I make any reference to the impact of load management on performances like our last game against freo, and i'm ridiculed, with the subtext being, please no mote talk about loading - effectively shutting the conversation down.

[Jaded No More 68,915]

1 hour ago, PaulRB said:

Curious: Is there any chance Trac could be back in 6-7 weeks, I.e. primed for first final (assuming we make it)?

is that what “indefinite”, rather than “season”, means? 

No. 
He won’t play again this year. We need to forget that fantasy. 

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

42 minutes ago, rpfc said:

We are now a young team that is going to have days that we simply don’t perform or perform but still lose against a superior team.

My expectation is that we play 4 of the 6 in the same vein of this last 3 weeks. That may mean we win only twice and not make it.

I think expectations the last few days are outside of what the team can deliver.

I think that this is the first acknowledgement I have ever seen on Demonland in the maybe 8 years I have been on here, that someone has acknowledged you can perform well and still lose. It’s typically not that nuanced and rather binary. 
Bravo 🙌🏼 

[leave it to deever 17,511]

6 minutes ago, binman said:

mean, sure I skew positive

To be fair it's often a pleasant change.

 

[Big Col 1,347]

1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

It’s a good question.

You’d imagine Trac resting up for the entirety of July and most of August would be sufficient recovery time to have him back training in September. However he’d be so un match fit for a final so one would think we won’t see him again.

Whether we can go anywhere without Trac remains to be seen. Our injury list is in otherwise good shape, touch wood.

He'd make a handy sub.
Imagine bringing him on at 3/4 time.
 

[rpfc 28,433]

34 minutes ago, binman said:

It fits our form line for the fourth year in a row.

When I first started discussing load management in 2021 it's fair to say I copped a fair bit.

What's crazy is ive copped it every year since - so much so that I barely raise it anymore because I can't be bothered getting pilloried.

(It's ironic actually because many of the posters lampooning and shutting down such conversations complain any criticisms of the club they make are policed and shut down  - cue the face palm and vomit emojis)

Crazy because you would have to actively ignore the evidence to be so wilfully ignorant. 

I recall mutiple posters, even in the face of iffrefutable evidence, say they won't believe loading happens (which morphed for many into, maybe a factor but.....) until a coach or ex player comes out and says it happens. 

Ok, well it's starting now to be discussed by such people.

Good to hear Cameron Ling come out and discuss it.

Del Santo alluded to it on the ABC in the early part of the season, saying it's all about playing your best footy in August and using the tapering for the olympics as an ananlogy

Hopefully next season the discussion about high performance programs and load management  can move from being a 'dirty word',  or a running Demonland joke, to a nuanced discussion that factors in load management into the analysis of our performances. 

And as I've noted it might also open up discussions like the different high performance philosophies (manage and rotate, no rotation, squads, play through niggles etc) and an analysis of our high performance program.

One benefit would be less of the hair on fire, the sky is falling, play the kids, we are a joke, sack goody, it's all about 2025 etc etc that dominates Demonland for a couple of months in the middle of every season.

I mean, sure I skew positive, but some of the takes on where we were at coming into the bye, and even after our WIN against the Roos, have already proved to be utterly ridiculous - even if we don’t go on to push for a flag.

Silly, vibes based, emotive stuff - but barely commented on, let alone anyone getting called on it

Yet I make any reference to the impact of load management on performances like our last game against freo, and i'm ridiculed, with the subtext being, please no mote talk about loading - effectively shutting the conversation down.

My main frustration with the ‘loading conversation’ was how myopic it became in the affirmative. In 2022 I was trying to point out that we have changed (ruined?) our game style to protect our mids (long bombs into the pocket) and last year that we needed to up our transition game to compete with the best. 

And yet this place was just having this binary fascination with a sports physiology preparation technique that most teams employ; I’m seeing ‘noise’ in the data and with my eyes because we are in a loading phase of the season.

[Sir Why You Little 37,038]

11 hours ago, Bitter but optimistic said:

I hate to be repetitive ...... but ..... [censored] me that inexplicable loss to West Coast did us some damage.

That’s the one

 10 Goal loss to West Coast. 
 

Something was seriously wrong….

[Rab D Nesbitt 8,367]

2 hours ago, PaulRB said:

Curious: Is there any chance Trac could be back in 6-7 weeks, I.e. primed for first final (assuming we make it)?

is that what “indefinite”, rather than “season”, means? 

For what it's worth Max has actually floated that thought a couple of times in his twice weekly slot on the Marty Sheargold radio show. 

[binman 42,972]

36 minutes ago, rpfc said:

My main frustration with the ‘loading conversation’ was how myopic it became in the affirmative. In 2022 I was trying to point out that we have changed (ruined?) our game style to protect our mids (long bombs into the pocket) and last year that we needed to up our transition game to compete with the best. 

And yet this place was just having this binary fascination with a sports physiology preparation technique that most teams employ; I’m seeing ‘noise’ in the data and with my eyes because we are in a loading phase of the season.

I hear what you are saying rp, but one of my major frustrations about the discussion is what I see as a complete myth that it was a 'binary fascination' and that those who were wanting to discuss were implying it was the only factor.

People such as myself, and several others I could point to, have been at pains to clarify that it not an excuse and there are any number of other factors in the mix (for example tactics, method, psychology, form et etc)

And besides such voices were, and remain, decidedly in the minority so were hardly shutting down conversation about the topics you note.

But I do agree the discussion became tedious, and I am as much to blame for that ss anyone, so I'll go back to not discussing it. 

Edited July 16 by binman

[Boots and all 1,000]

7 hours ago, Neil Crompton said:

When we make the finals- as I’m certain we will - we will have come into September with momentum and belief. As such, I can see us doing some serious damage, and a grand final appearance a likely scenario. 

The "baby Demons" 😁