Are we fit enough?

[binman 42,881]

16 hours ago, chookrat said:

I thought we matched Brisbane from a workrate perspective across all 4 quarters and fitness wasn't the difference. Both sides looked pretty gassed in what was a relentless 4th quarter and while the held momentum we had our chances and didn't convert. Similarly they missed in what was a brutal finals like game.

Re impact during the loading phase it won't so much affect the ability to run out games as overall the players are stronger aerobically but players lose some explosiveness due to the cumulative muscle fatigue caused by the increased training load. At the end of the loading phase the players would have around a week of tapering, or reduced training load, which is short enough to keep the aerobic fitness gains they have made while freshening up and regaining their explosiveness.  This is the same approach taken by endurance athletes where they load up 2 - 3 months before an event and finish with a 7 - 10 day taper for the event.

Looking at how we played vs Brisbane our pressure was relentless and we would stick tackles which in previous weeks we would look slow or lack the explosiveness to bring the player to ground.

My take is that we are absolutely in the hunt this year but don't have much wriggle room to lose games like we did vs Brisbane. While it's only 1 week I'm optimistic that the Melbourne contested  pressure brand of footy is returning.

Great post.

It points to two interconnected issues with cornes take, well three actually.

One, fitness is probably the wrong word in the context of load management and the high performance program.

At least in the context cornes is discussing our fade outs in the last six weeks.

I'm not sure what the right term is. I mean they are all fit of course, it's more about fatigue levels. Or conversely, freshness.

I'm going with dynamic, or optimal shape/readiness - unless someone has a better term.

Two, cornes notes we have been the worst last quarter team in terms of scoring in the last six weeks.

Suggests that is evidence we are not fit enough.

Questions why we might not be, suggesting motivation and how we are rehabbing might be factors.

But, here's the rub.

The whole data set is we were also the best last quarter team for the first 10 weeks.

So, by corne's logic, that means we were a very fit team in that period, perhaps the fittest.

So, there is a logical inconsistency. 

I mean, what's he saying?

We were fit, meaning we were motivated and worked super hard etc in the preseason, but six weeks later we're not?  

That our fitness could completey drop off a cliff in just six weeks?

I mean, it doesn't make sense - in of itself.

And the third issue is cornes' diagnosis of why he thinks we are not fit - which basically boils down blaming the players (though he does mention the youth of the team).

Just asking questions. 

It's great they are discussing fitness as a factor, but it's a joke they don't discuss the high performance aspect.

I mean cornes played AFL, and as I understand it is a high level distance runner. He knows what is going on. But it is still seemingly taboo to discuss load management. 

In this example, at least suggest it as a possible factor - particularly given there is four years of evidence of a clear pattern of an almost identical six week drop off in form and last quarter scores (after having dominated that same stat for the first 10 rounds or so) around the pre bye and bye period (by the by, it's no coincidence the crows had a a spike - we're more dynamic- this week).

If it's not even discussed, then what are you left with?

The players are soft and not working hard enough. Or the high performance program is nor working. Or both. 

It's stupid. And doesn't help people try and understand what's going on.

Edited June 30 by binman

[No. 31 1,235]

I remember the Blues v Dees game 7 weeks ago, Melbourne came storming home in the last quarter and nearly snatched a win. Carlton won by 1 point after a great final quarter from the Demons.

Fitness wasn't an issue thrn it seemed for the Dees.

I suspect it is having more younger players in the side at the moment more than anything else.

[Adam The God 30,217]

9 hours ago, binman said:

Great post.

It points to two interconnected issues with cornes take, well three actually.

One, fitness is probably the wrong word in the context of load management and the high performance program.

At least in the context cornes is discussing our fade outs in the last six weeks.

I'm not sure what the right term is. I mean they are all fit of course, it's more about fatigue levels. Or conversely, freshness.

I'm going with dynamic, or optimal shape/readiness - unless someone has a better term.

Two, cornes notes we have been the worst last quarter team in terms of scoring in the last six weeks.

Suggests that is evidence we are not fit enough.

Questions why we might not be, suggesting motivation and how we are rehabbing might be factors.

But, here's the rub.

The whole data set is we were also the best last quarter team for the first 10 weeks.

So, by corne's logic, that means we were a very fit team in that period, perhaps the fittest.

So, there is a logical inconsistency. 

I mean, what's he saying?

We were fit, meaning we were motivated and worked super hard etc in the preseason, but six weeks later we're not?  

That our fitness could completey drop off a cliff in just six weeks?

I mean, it doesn't make sense - in of itself.

And the third issue is cornes' diagnosis of why he thinks we are not fit - which basically boils down blaming the players (though he does mention the youth of the team).

Just asking questions. 

It's great they are discussing fitness as a factor, but it's a joke they don't discuss the high performance aspect.

I mean cornes played AFL, and as I understand it is a high level distance runner. He knows what is going on. But it is still seemingly taboo to discuss load management. 

In this example, at least suggest it as a possible factor - particularly given there is four years of evidence of a clear pattern of an almost identical six week drop off in form and last quarter scores (after having dominated that same stat for the first 10 rounds or so) around the pre bye and bye period (by the by, it's no coincidence the crows had a a spike - we're more dynamic- this week).

If it's not even discussed, then what are you left with?

The players are soft and not working hard enough. Or the high performance program is nor working. Or both. 

It's stupid. And doesn't help people try and understand what's going on.

Are you also saying here, Binners, that we will come out the other side of it this season and that there is a training block being undertaken?

[Waltham33 475]

Having watched many other teams live this year my view a month ago was no and now you add a number of younger players who wont be able to run out games as well as veterans, IMHO it is definitely no right now.  Still Friday was a good step forward and don't discount some of our experienced players may be showing some fatigue from gruelling finals games

[Fat Tony 5,228]

The contested, long kicking game is more taxing than the kick/mark possession game plan. We should play the contested brand in the first half, when the heat is in the game, and then switch to a more possession game in the second half when the game opens up.

[Hawk the Demon 987]

20 hours ago, binman said:

The last six weeks is the key here.

We have struggled for that exact block of time in and around the bye since 2021. 

My explanation as to why is well documented.

To that I'd add nearly half the team are kids.

Two of the starting 22 against lions are in their first season of AFL season, meaning the kolt and Windsor as draftees, have not even completed a full AFL preseason.

And we lost salo and bowey ahead of the game, one a senior seasoned AFL player, the other young but has 50 plus games and 3 AFL preseasons under his belt.

AND we were coming off a six day break, and had to travel.

Is it any wonder we flagged a bit in rhe last quarter?

Brisbane were also off a 6 day break and travel from Adelaide.

[Sir Why You Little 37,025]

Missed all 4 shots in the last quarter. They were all kickable. 
mental and physical fatigue?

Not fit enough…

[Clintosaurus 7,843]

37 minutes ago, Fat Tony said:

The contested, long kicking game is more taxing than the kick/mark possession game plan. We should play the contested brand in the first half, when the heat is in the game, and then switch to a more possession game in the second half when the game opens up.

We have pretty much done that since 2020. Especially in games where the oppo had the momentum, we would go into tempo mode and run time off the clock. Partly explains why not many blowout wins.

[Fat Tony 5,228]

16 minutes ago, Clintosaurus said:

We have pretty much done that since 2020. Especially in games where the oppo had the momentum, we would go into tempo mode and run time off the clock. Partly explains why not many blowout wins.

I don’t think we’ve switched in game to a possession game. I think Goodwin has been reluctant to change style during the game. 

[poita 3,902]

I just love the idea that we're building our form and fitness for a finals campaign that is increasingly unlikely to happen. 

More likely we're just not good enough this year, and the happy clappers that dominate our supporter base are utterly deluded. 

[BW511 2,668]

One thing to keep in mind is that the 2023 gameplan would have different requirements, from a fitness and conditioning perspective, when compared to the early part of this year.

Whilst it can be trained over a summer, Selwyn is working to different parameters now so it would need a longer period of time to properly adjust for it.

I’m neither here nor there on Selwyn, just offering a perspective 

 

[binman 42,881]

1 hour ago, Hawk the Demon said:

Brisbane were also off a 6 day break and travel from Adelaide.

That's true, though I was only referencing the reason we might have tired, not making a comparison to the lions (who also flagged, as evidenced by some of their funky skill errors)

But if i were i making a comparison id note they had their bye in round 12 , almost a full month ago so they are out the other side of bye related fatigue (ie from increased loads).

And perhaps more critically, fielded a much more seasoned team in terms of age, experience and number of preseasons.

[binman 42,881]

22 minutes ago, BW511 said:

One thing to keep in mind is that the 2023 gameplan would have different requirements, from a fitness and conditioning perspective, when compared to the early part of this year.

Whilst it can be trained over a summer, Selwyn is working to different parameters now so it would need a longer period of time to properly adjust for it.

I’m neither here nor there on Selwyn, just offering a perspective 

 

Spot on.

And the other factor is the age of the current best 22.

Coming into the season the high performance program and planning would have been informed by an assumption that we Gus and Smith both available, and that we would get games from senior, seasoned players like Billings, Hunter, mcadam and to a lesser extent Ben Brown.

That largely hasn't happened, forcing us to play way more kids than they would have planned to - a situation exacerbated by Lever and sako missing games and now tracc out for the season.

[Adam The God 30,217]

48 minutes ago, BW511 said:

One thing to keep in mind is that the 2023 gameplan would have different requirements, from a fitness and conditioning perspective, when compared to the early part of this year.

Whilst it can be trained over a summer, Selwyn is working to different parameters now so it would need a longer period of time to properly adjust for it.

I’m neither here nor there on Selwyn, just offering a perspective 

 

I can only assume the plan itself has been incredibly difficult to navigate because Burgess was always just handing over the 2021 program to Selwyn, with Selwyn being an injury management guy (and TBH, the perfect offsider for a Burgess type).

In 2022-2023, the fixture was roughly the same as 2021, so some tweaks could be made that would probably refine the program, but still allow room for some experimentation to improve the program.

But in 2024, the fixture has an extra round, plus an extra bye, and then we had a lot of travel in the first half of the season. Lots of parameter shifts. My understanding is that this isn't Selwyn's strength, but I suppose he's working through it in a similar way to every other fitness boss, given we've never had a season fixtured like this.

Edited July 1 by Binmans PA

[Deemania since 56 6,634]

22 hours ago, chookrat said:

I thought we matched Brisbane from a workrate perspective across all 4 quarters and fitness wasn't the difference. Both sides looked pretty gassed in what was a relentless 4th quarter and while the held momentum we had our chances and didn't convert. Similarly they missed in what was a brutal finals like game.

Re impact during the loading phase it won't so much affect the ability to run out games as overall the players are stronger aerobically but players lose some explosiveness due to the cumulative muscle fatigue caused by the increased training load. At the end of the loading phase the players would have around a week of tapering, or reduced training load, which is short enough to keep the aerobic fitness gains they have made while freshening up and regaining their explosiveness.  This is the same approach taken by endurance athletes where they load up 2 - 3 months before an event and finish with a 7 - 10 day taper for the event.

Looking at how we played vs Brisbane our pressure was relentless and we would stick tackles which in previous weeks we would look slow or lack the explosiveness to bring the player to ground.

My take is that we are absolutely in the hunt this year but don't have much wriggle room to lose games like we did vs Brisbane. While it's only 1 week I'm optimistic that the Melbourne contested  pressure brand of footy is returning.

A few things yet to go in our favour, and currently, the goal mouth is messing with our heads all the way to the halfback line. We have the artillery and desire to blow the beasties away but we must start doing it now. Focus boys, think hard and put it into action. 'Carna far Ken Demons!

 

[Deemania since 56 6,634]

16 hours ago, Moonshadow said:

If one or two go through we win and we aren't discussing fitness.

Great point - so close and it's a simple remedy. That's the realism.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,816]

The fact that we've been outscored a combined 54-5 in our last 2 final quarters (V North and Lions) played would probably indicate that our fitness isn't "state of the art" at the moment.

And whilst our supporters are citing that we have a lot of young players in the team as an excuse, why is it that Hawthorn, who the media keep telling us are a young/rebuilding team, are running games out beautifully - whether it be putting bottom teams to the sword in the second half, or holding on in the last quarter against contending sides.

 

Edited July 1 by Bring-Back-Powell

[Jack Vineys Anger Manager 395]

First to worst: Fitness no factor, so what's causing Dees' final-term fades? - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1162860

[Dee Viney Intervention 1,936]

16 minutes ago, Jack Vineys Anger Manager said:

First to worst: Fitness no factor, so what's causing Dees' final-term fades? - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1162860

Thanks for posting. Possibly a case of working harder rather than smarter. Ie our forwards constantly pushing so high up the ground to defend instead of being held back and do their primary role which is present and kick goals. Happy for them to defend our forward 50 arc but not the oppositions. Must be hard to kick gettable goals with all that lactic acid build up in the legs……..but,but,but that’s the modern game. Doesn’t have to be. It just takes a coach to be brave enough to hold forwards back in your forward 50 so win you do win a ball you can go quick in transition to multiple targets forward of the ball. And by Crivens don’t we look good when we do it and it’s great to see the scoreboard reward. 

[demon3165 2,717]

It's not the fitness issue It's the gameplan issue look at the last quarter 18 players all in one half no one in the front half at all, you cannot expect to have any run and carry when that happens we just bombed the ball out most of that quarter to waiting lions players and when we scored a point the lions just walked it out the backline every time, and the frustrating thing the coaches allowed it to happen instead of making changes.

If you watch Casey they do the same thing it is programed that way forwards trying to be midfielders

[Dee*ceiving 1,674]

To the naked eye we ran harder v Brisbane than we had for some time... Probably the Geelong game or 2nd half v Carlton.

We really only needed one goal to close the game in the last. Two might have applied enough scoreboard pressure to cruise to a 4-6 goal win. Unfortunately we didn't take our chances, lions had momentum and 4 extra players wearing yellow. 

Effort was exactly where we need it to be though. Proud of that  

[monoccular 17,418]

3 hours ago, poita said:

I just love the idea that we're building our form and fitness for a finals campaign that is increasingly unlikely to happen. 

More likely we're just not good enough this year, and the happy clappers that dominate our supporter base are utterly deluded. 

I think it may have been binman who quoted Chris Scott saying that he would rather risk missing finals than not being ready to perform if they got there.  
Obviously a very high risk / reward philosophy but could that be what we are doing?

[Stu 919]

15 minutes ago, monoccular said:

I think it may have been binman who quoted Chris Scott saying that he would rather risk missing finals than not being ready to perform if they got there.  
Obviously a very high risk / reward philosophy but could that be what we are doing?

Scott said that in early 2022 when the Cats were hot and cold trying to master their more attacking style (as opposed to the possession, kick-mark, style they'd used up to 2021). They were 5-4 after Round 9 - but Scott knew they weren't going to win anything with their 2021 game-plan so he risked missing it all in the pursuit of a style that would give them a chance (rather than the inverse).

This season is so close, and many of the jostling teams all play each other over the coming weeks. If we beat WCE and Essendon there's a decent chance we will be 6th, 5th or even 4th at the end of Round 18. The media narrative will swing and we'll be David King's new "Don't sleep on the..[insert team]" talking point.

Edited July 1 by Stu
grammar

[seventyfour 1,140]

On 30/06/2024 at 15:13, Redleg said:

We kicked 4 points in the last against the Lions.

All were gettable goals.

If one or two go through we win and we aren't discussing fitness.

If one or two go through in 2023 we might be reigning Premiers 😔

[Sir Why You Little 37,025]

29 minutes ago, seventyfour said:

If one or two go through in 2023 we might be reigning Premiers 😔

Exactly. Not as it’s a new issue