The Pick 1 Thread

[old55 23,352]

1 hour ago, samcantstandya said:

Why not tempt North with 6 & 11 for 2 and let WCE know we'll pick Curtin if they pick Reid. Otherwise WCE we take Duursma/McKercher etc....

North aren't going to give us 2 unless it gets them 1.

[old55 23,352]

I think a deal could be:

WC: In 3, 6, 11; Out: 1, 23, F1
North: In 1, 23, WC F1;  Out, 2, 3
MFC: In: 2; Out: 6, 11

[640MD 3,352]

As I said earlier

Going to be an interesting time this draft.

I feel sure WC will trade the pick,  they need more than one player,  but so do North   very much the same boat.

Build a base from wide foundations   not the pointy 1, both WCE and NM  need to get two players out of the top of this draft.  If WCE do not take what is offered now  they will be forced to deal with the mighty MFC on draft night.

We get 1 or a F1   they get 6 and 11   and steak knifes get passed around   maybe we get 23 so we can get a player.

 

[Demonsterative 3,020]

4 minutes ago, 640MD said:

As I said earlier

Going to be an interesting time this draft.

I feel sure WC will trade the pick,  they need more than one player,  but so do North   very much the same boat.

Build a base from wide foundations   not the pointy 1, both WCE and NM  need to get two players out of the top of this draft.  If WCE do not take what is offered now  they will be forced to deal with the mighty MFC on draft night.

We get 1 or a F1   they get 6 and 11   and steak knifes get passed around   maybe we get 23 so we can get a player.

 

 North already have a very good draft hand that will net them 5 top 20 picks (excluding NGA’s) in two weeks. They have 3 top 25 draft picks from last year. They have been loading up for a period now. 
 

It’s WCE that need to continue this strategy from last years draft. 

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,325]

2 hours ago, old55 said:

I think a deal could be:

WC: In 3, 6, 11; Out: 1, 23, F1
North: In 1, 23, WC F1;  Out, 2, 3
MFC: In: 2; Out: 6, 11

Massive win for North, arguably could be back to back pick 1 for 2 & 3.

If we’re not getting Reid, who would you think we’re picking at 2?

[bing181 9,193]

2 hours ago, 640MD said:

We get 1 or a F1   they get 6 and 11 

WC are not trading 1 for anything less than 2 single-figure picks, one of those higher than 6. And no matter what they're bundled with. Also, future picks aren't going to help, they need new talent ASAP.

Not to mention they've already effectively rejected our 6+11+F1 offer.

[fr_ap 2,454]

39 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Massive win for North, arguably could be back to back pick 1 for 2 & 3.

If we’re not getting Reid, who would you think we’re picking at 2?

If we do that deal and take Duursma we will regret it for a very, very, very long time. 

Edited November 6, 2023 by fr_ap

[Demon Disciple 12,062]

41 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Massive win for North, arguably could be back to back pick 1 for 2 & 3.

If we’re not getting Reid, who would you think we’re picking at 2?

McKercher for mine.

[LittleDemon 23]

2 hours ago, old55 said:

I think a deal could be:

WC: In 3, 6, 11; Out: 1, 23, F1
North: In 1, 23, WC F1;  Out, 2, 3
MFC: In: 2; Out: 6, 11

Not happening.  As if WC would give away two pick 1's.  And I've said it before, they would want 2, not 3.

You've got more chance with a simple trade of 

WC: In 3, 6; Out: 1, 23
North: In 1, 11, 23;  Out, 2, 3
MFC: In: 3; Out: 6, 11

And to do this for Duursma or McKercher to me is mistake, when we can get 2 really good players for our future at 6 and 11.

[640MD 3,352]

23 minutes ago, bing181 said:

WC are not trading 1 for anything less than 2 single-figure picks, one of those higher than 6. And no matter what they're bundled with. Also, future picks aren't going to help, they need new talent ASAP.

Not to mention they've already effectively rejected our 6+11+F1 offer.

Yes they have not accepted our offer,

or norths   It might well be different on the night . They might need to take what they can get,   Or

we pick whom we want with pick 6 and pick 11. Where ever they fall, and we will still get two young men who can play pretty good football.  Plan for the positives and possibilities 

Prepare for reality and probability 

[Mach5 4,767]

2 hours ago, bing181 said:

WC are not trading 1 for anything less than 2 single-figure picks, one of those higher than 6. And no matter what they're bundled with. Also, future picks aren't going to help, they need new talent ASAP.

Not to mention they've already effectively rejected our 6+11+F1 offer.

That component is meaningless. They wouldn’t have accepted by now even if the offer was 3x top 10 picks.

[Colm 2,068]

@Pennant St Dee Do you know what the WA prospects for 2024 are looking like? Just trying to gauge what WC could do over a two year period rather than just this draft.

If they don’t trade pick one they don’t have a great hand after it in this years draft. Trading out future  
Picks will be their only way to move up the order this year. 

Edited November 6, 2023 by Colm

[Colm 2,068]

I think the Suns might yet have a massive part to play with pick 1 although in a more indirect way. They are still short on points required for their academy players and have picks 24 (second pick in the second round), 26&27. 
Should they part with the first two of those 3 picks in a trade involving WC and North and perhaps ourselves for a mix of later and future picks then you might think it’s unlikely that any of the clubs involved would bid on their academy players( be very close to draft tampering). IF Walters slipped past 2&3 that would saving the Suns 400 points alone. 
 

It would add two decent picks to the mix to be part of an overall deal and might help get it over the line. 

[Pennant St Dee 13,064]

39 minutes ago, Colm said:

@Pennant St Dee Do you know what the WA prospects for 2024 are looking like? Just trying to gauge what WC could do over a two year period rather than just this draft.

If they don’t trade pick one they don’t have a great hand after it in this years draft. Trading out future  
Picks will be their only way to move up the order this year. 

They aren’t great, probably the poorest they have been in years.  WAFC concerned with the development and hired full time 18s coach, whilst also changing their training process. Bo Allan (Peel) and Malakai Champion(Subi) the only 2 who made the AIS squad. This time last year though Zakostelsky was unheard of so I expect a few will climb and announce themselves through the season 

Champion, Allan, Austin Van Der Struyf, Hamish Davis, Blake Kelly and Cody Angove (my bolter tip) the ones likely to be drafted

[Adam The God 30,110]

17 hours ago, old55 said:

I think a deal could be:

WC: In 3, 6, 11; Out: 1, 23, F1
North: In 1, 23, WC F1;  Out, 2, 3
MFC: In: 2; Out: 6, 11

Aren't WC are being smashed in that deal given their F1 will be a top 3 pick?

Edited November 7, 2023 by Binmans PA

[old55 23,352]

1 hour ago, Binmans PA said:

Aren't WC are being smashed in that deal given their F1 will be a top 3 pick?

They possibly think that.

I think 2023 3 > 2024 F1 by a small amount.

Then it's 1 + 23 for 6 + 11  - that depends on the players available at 6, 11 and 23 (or where those picks end up.

It probably needs to be 2 to WC and 3 to MFC but I'm partisan and want us to have first choice. I wouldn't do 6 + 11 for 3 but I would for 2.

[Nascent 9,087]

25 minutes ago, old55 said:

They possibly think that.

I think 2023 3 > 2024 F1 by a small amount.

Then it's 1 + 23 for 6 + 11  - that depends on the players available at 6, 11 and 23 (or where those picks end up.

It probably needs to be 2 to WC and 3 to MFC but I'm partisan and want us to have first choice. I wouldn't do 6 + 11 for 3 but I would for 2.

Not sure this would be a significant block unless we are fighting for the same player.

Footy fan speculation I've read suggest the Eagles are keen on McKercher. While I haven't heard anything concrete on us apart from our offer for Reid, we could very well be keen on Duursma. Therefore it wont matter who holds 2 or 3 if the end result is the same.

Club targets will probably be well established and known between clubs which may help facilitate or hinder the deal.

[old55 23,352]

9 minutes ago, Nascent said:

Not sure this would be a significant block unless we are fighting for the same player.

Footy fan speculation I've read suggest the Eagles are keen on McKercher. While I haven't heard anything concrete on us apart from our offer for Reid, we could very well be keen on Duursma. Therefore it wont matter who holds 2 or 3 if the end result is the same.

Club targets will probably be well established and known between clubs which may help facilitate or hinder the deal.

Correct

[Ted Lasso 19,269]

The McKercher vs Duursma battle is interesting although not really related to pick 1 at this stage, 

I honestly think the pending Tasmanian license would be a thought in the minds of teams looking at Tassie guys in this draft, they'll come in with an open cheque book and you'd think that Colby McKercher with a few years development is going to be right up the point y end of their targets. 

I don't know if this is significant enough to lean one way or the other with the above pair, but i think the two recent expansion teams have shown that really good, big name players can be lured out by expansion clubs and big deals. 

Hense the MFC locking up all their players long term and the Pies getting the Daicos boys locked away early

 

[Demonland 71,254]

 

[Fat Tony 5,217]

27 minutes ago, Demonland said:

 

Summary:

 

West Coast will take the No. 1 pick into draft night as North Melbourne's hopes of claiming Harley Reid fade. The deadline for clubs to swap picks has been reached, meaning clubs can't do any deals until the first night of the draft on November 20. The Kangaroos and Demons have made multiple efforts to strike a deal with West Coast on pick one in a bid to keep Reid in Victoria. West Coast is set on taking the powerful Tongala midfielder after North Melbourne's surprise last-round win over Gold Coast handed West Coast the No. 1 pick. The draft will be held across two nights on November 20-21.

West Coast also has picks 23 and 37 and could snare next generation academy livewire Lance Collard at pick 23 amid clubs fears Collard could become homesick in Victoria. Collard is rated a top-15 player on talent but the man who has been likened to Collingwood’s Bobby Hill could slide to West Coast’s second pick.

Geelong has pick eight and has attracted interest from North Melbourne in the Roos’ bid to move up the order. Essendon’s pick nine has also been targeted by clubs who have picks in the teens and want to jump up the order.

[Mach5 4,767]

Nothing article based on the logic that if WC haven’t traded pick 1 by today’s cut off then they are unlikely to at all, despite a trade before draft day being utterly nonsensical for WC.

[Demonland 71,254]

 

[Redleg 40,811]

13 minutes ago, Demonland said:

 

If that's true, that the Eagles would trade F1 for Curtin,given how well they should know him, then we should be taking him if he is there at our pick. With Petty in some doubt to stay, it makes even more sense.

[Mach5 4,767]

3 minutes ago, Redleg said:

If that's true, that the Eagles would trade F1 for Curtin,given how well they should know him, then we should be taking him if he is there at our pick. With Petty in some doubt to stay, it makes even more sense.

Selecting a player because another club is perceived as rating him highly makes absolutely no sense to me. 
 

Further, WestCoast’s List Management Dept is so adept, we are currently witnessing one of the worst sides on in the AFL era with little indication of an upturn. That they are rumoured to be shopping a F1 destined to be top 2 in the draft is another reason to doubt their judgment.