They'd be stupid to keep it.

What will it take to get it... from us or another club? Who else is in the running?

My prediction is that the Suns will want a future 1st included so they can transfer some of the pick 4 value into 2024

Pick 4 is 2034 points

If we traded:

19 (after winning the premiership and allowing for Mackay free agent comp)

25 (rd 2 from freo assuming only one FA before then) 

38 (2nd round pick assuming 2 FAs)

we'd be 72 points short, which a future 3rd round might cover.

Of course we'd then have to rely on whatever trade value we got from any players traded plus free agents to get our 3rd pick or our 2nd and 3rd pick if we traded for #1

4 and 5 OR 5 and 6 are worth more than #1 so we'd get some change back from WCE if we went that way. I'd think they might take it.

Of course if we bomb out in the finals our hand is stronger but let's not think of that now.

 

Gold Coast will want to trade it for as many draft pick points as possible to cover for their academy kids.

GC give Pick 4 (2034 points)

Dees give Pick 15 (1112 points) + Pick 34 (542 points) + Future first (1112 points if we finish in same spot next year)

I think we will get a 2023 or 2024 second round pick from Port for Brodie Grundy anyway, so 34 won't be needed.

Will leave us with Pick 4, Pick 5 and Pick 24 

3 minutes ago, wheaters31 said:

Gold Coast will want to trade it for as many draft pick points as possible to cover for their academy kids.

GC give Pick 4 (2034 points)

Dees give Pick 15 (1112 points) + Pick 34 (542 points) + Future first (1112 points if we finish in same spot next year)

I think we will get a 2023 or 2024 second round pick from Port for Brodie Grundy anyway, so 34 won't be needed.

Will leave us with Pick 4, Pick 5 and Pick 24 

Oh ye of little faith!

Academy players tend to slide down the draft as teams know they won’t be getting them and keeping a club honest might come back to burn you in future drafts. Walters might go 2 but I’d expect the others to drop back a bit. 
Suns are already well stacked with picks and will be able to further spilt picks  28&31. Plus they will get more picks in if Flanders leaves 

They will still need to get a bit more draft capital to cover academy picks this year but I think they will be keener to get good picks for next years draft. 

24 minutes ago, Big Col said:

Pick 4 is 2034 points

If we traded:

19 (after winning the premiership and allowing for Mackay free agent comp)

25 (rd 2 from freo assuming only one FA before then) 

38 (2nd round pick assuming 2 FAs)

we'd be 72 points short, which a future 3rd round might cover.

Of course we'd then have to rely on whatever trade value we got from any players traded plus free agents to get our 3rd pick or our 2nd and 3rd pick if we traded for #1

4 and 5 OR 5 and 6 are worth more than #1 so we'd get some change back from WCE if we went that way. I'd think they might take it.

Of course if we bomb out in the finals our hand is stronger but let's not think of that now.

 

We won't get 38 for 2 x FAs. Who are our FAs that are worth more that pick 50? JJ, barely.

if the Gold Coast pick 4 for points falls through:

Could we possibly get Essendon's Pick 8 if we packaged Tomlinson, Harmes and #18 & #23 -  Or something with our future 1st?

10 hours ago, John Demonic said:

if the Gold Coast pick 4 for points falls through:

Could we possibly get Essendon's Pick 8 if we packaged Tomlinson, Harmes and #18 & #23 -  Or something with our future 1st?

Dons are a) tough to deal with and b) have so many balls in the air. Remember that they said no to 3 first rounders for their first rounder last year because they wouldn’t give us a second back in return. I’d love for them to say yes, but probably not. 

10 hours ago, John Demonic said:

if the Gold Coast pick 4 for points falls through:

Could we possibly get Essendon's Pick 8 if we packaged Tomlinson, Harmes and #18 & #23 -  Or something with our future 1st?

Some other candidates to trade with.

GWS: picks 6, 12 then 50

Geelong: picks 7 then nothing until 81.

Carlton: picks 14 then nothing until 64

WB: picks 10, 17 (may looks to ship out one of these for a croft bid)

 

1 hour ago, wheaters31 said:

Gold Coast will want to trade it for as many draft pick points as possible to cover for their academy kids.

GC give Pick 4 (2034 points)

Dees give Pick 15 (1112 points) + Pick 34 (542 points) + Future first (1112 points if we finish in same spot next year)

I think we will get a 2023 or 2024 second round pick from Port for Brodie Grundy anyway, so 34 won't be needed.

Will leave us with Pick 4, Pick 5 and Pick 24 

🤞

6 minutes ago, Nascent said:

Some other candidates to trade with.

GWS: picks 6, 12 then 50

Geelong: picks 7 th

Cren nothing until 81.

Carlton: picks 14 then nothing until 64

WB: picks 10, 17 (may looks to ship out one of these for a croft bid)

 

Crows have 7, 20 and 24 but would be left one pick if they traded the lot.

5 minutes ago, Jibroni said:

Crows have 7, 20 and 24 but would be left one pick if they traded the lot.

Pretty sure crows have pick 9.

Depends on how many picks they want to take to the draft really. They may only take two players and upgrade a rookie.

Then they could look at 9 and 20 (2381) for pick 4 (2034).

Leaves them with 4 and 24.

I think we'll offer a future pick as well. Will Adelaide?

9 minutes ago, Nascent said:

I think we'll offer a future pick as well. Will Adelaide?

Yep it is Pick 9.

I imagine Adelaide would offer next years 1st as they will pick up Scott Welsh's son (rated a Top 10 pick they say)

Edited August 30, 20231 yr by Jibroni

14 minutes ago, Jibroni said:

Yep it is Pick 9.

I imagine Adelaide would offer next years 1st as they will pick up Scott Welsh's son (rated a Top 10 pick they say)

Possibly. They would have to be pretty confident of finishing high up the ladder, which they are every chance to do. 

Having said that, if they're expecting him to be a top rated pick then they probably want to bank as many points possible next year like gold coast did this year. If he's top 3, and they trade out their future first rounder, they're looking at using all of their subsequent picks and still being in points deficit.

Edit: having said all that I'm sure they can get creative and bring in those extra points via trade or pick swaps

Edited August 30, 20231 yr by Nascent

7 hours ago, Dee-licious said:

Dons are a) tough to deal with and b) have so many balls in the air. Remember that they said no to 3 first rounders for their first rounder last year because they wouldn’t give us a second back in return. I’d love for them to say yes, but probably not. 

And that's part of the reason why they are where they are. History of very poor picks. Long may it continue.

The Herald Sun’s online edition article on what it’s writers think your club will do with their first draft pick says this about the clubs that have first right to a raft of talented youngsters likely to be picked early in the National Draft -

GOLD COAST

Current Indicative Draft Order: 4, 28, 31, 42, 47, 56, 60, 65, 69, 78, 96

We know what Gold Coast is likely to do with not only its first draft pick but potentially up to four selections. The club's first selection currently sits at pick four, but that is on the trade table given it will otherwise be swallowed up by matching Suns Academy bids. The first of those bids is likely to come for key forward Jed Walter as early as pick two or three, while mobile ruckman Ethan Read and tough inside midfielder Jake Rogers could also attract bids within the first 12 picks on draft night. The Suns also have another Academy midfielder in Will Graham, who is likely to attract a bid in the 30s or 40s. Gold Coast has already loaded up on points in this draft to give it the ability to match all these bids.

44 minutes ago, Whispering_Jack said:

GOLD COAST

Current Indicative Draft Order: 4, 28, 31, 42, 47, 56, 60, 65, 69, 78, 96

This is why the AFL should bring back the 'draft picks cannot exceed list spots' rule.  Or eliminate draft points for pics >ND40 instead of stretching them out to ND69 as it would force clubs to use 1st or 2nd round picks.  While I'm on a roll, eliminate the 20% discount!!

It is a joke that they can draft 3-4 elite/A level players with such rubbish picks and they will have more after trading out ND4. 

 

Something like 15-20 players will be taken as Academy, NGA or F/S in this draft (mostly in the top 3-25 range).  It has been reported that the draft thins out after the top 20 and no more than 50 players will be drafted this year which leaves about 30 to 35 available players. 

All that makes for a compelling case to for clubs to cash in their chips and get as high up the order as possible.

We only need to use 3 draft picks:  a late one to promote Turner, a mid to late one to draft Brown.  So I can see us taking just one or two picks to the draft.  Picks 4 and 5 will do very nicely!!  Or convert them to ND1 or ND2 if those are gettable.

Edited August 30, 20231 yr by Lucifers Hero

If JT either a) wants Reid or b) has 2 players in mind for those top 5 picks, then the Mfc will find a way to get the trade done with GC. Tim lamb and the crew are dab hands at this caper so won’t be out manoeuvred by another club. They’ll satisfy GC 

I wonder if another club is going to trump us for Suns pick 4 we might look to upgrade from 5 to 4. You would think 5&34 would get it done.  Given the interest their will be in a top 5 pick the Suns will probably be able to get same trade done for 5 as they will for 4.

 
Seems like there’s a top bracket of player in the first 5/6 picks. Moving up one spot might be the difference of getting the one we really want. 
Clearly having both 4&5 would be a better outcome. 

16 hours ago, Jibroni said:

Crows have 7, 20 and 24 but would be left one pick if they traded the lot.

They just get more picks at the end of the draft, they don't get left with one pick.

The key to getting this pick might be extracting Port's future first round pick for Grundy.

The Suns will want to either: a) getup to pick 1 or 2 ahead of any bids or b) sell pick 4 for points and later picks. 

A package that includes two future first round picks (tied to Melbourne and PA) and points in 2023 will be attractive to them.

On 8/30/2023 at 8:12 PM, Stiff Arm said:

We won't get 38 for 2 x FAs. Who are our FAs that are worth more that pick 50? JJ, barely.

I meant that our 2nd round pick will slip to 38 because other clubs will receive compensation for free agents, pushing our pick back - not that we would receive pick 38 for free agents.

Am I missing something here? Don't the Suns need points this year to get their Northern Academy players? Doesn't that mean that directly trading using future picks is going to be of no interest to them? There's been some suggestion by some posters that Melbourne could package a future first round pick in a swap. Now that could still happen if there's a 3-way trade with another club giving us a pick this year in return for a future pick, and we on-trade to Gold Coast. GC aren't going to want to trade up, only down, and they will do the deal with whichever club gives them the most points so elaborate calculations about points equivalents aren't really that relevant. We will need to come up with a deal that is advantageous to Gold Coast without being ridiculous from a Melbourne perspective.      

1 hour ago, Sydney_Demon said:

Am I missing something here? Don't the Suns need points this year to get their Northern Academy players? Doesn't that mean that directly trading using future picks is going to be of no interest to them? There's been some suggestion by some posters that Melbourne could package a future first round pick in a swap. Now that could still happen if there's a 3-way trade with another club giving us a pick this year in return for a future pick, and we on-trade to Gold Coast. GC aren't going to want to trade up, only down, and they will do the deal with whichever club gives them the most points so elaborate calculations about points equivalents aren't really that relevant. We will need to come up with a deal that is advantageous to Gold Coast without being ridiculous from a Melbourne perspective.      

gc17 have a factory at their academy

they'll be needing to amass points for years to come

Edited September 2, 20231 yr by whatwhat say what

On 8/31/2023 at 8:19 AM, Colm said:

I wonder if another club is going to trump us for Suns pick 4 we might look to upgrade from 5 to 4. You would think 5&34 would get it done.  Given the interest their will be in a top 5 pick the Suns will probably be able to get same trade done for 5 as they will for 4.

 
Seems like there’s a top bracket of player in the first 5/6 picks. Moving up one spot might be the difference of getting the one we really want. 
Clearly having both 4&5 would be a better outcome. 

It's definitely worth it from a GC perspective because it's a net gain of about 400 points and it probably brings more clubs into the negotiating area as they can consider offers above 1878 points for Pick 5 rather than 2045 for Pick 4. I'm hoping pick 34 becomes pick 37 and then it would be a net gain of 340 points. I'm thinking though that it's not such a great deal for Melbourne unless we clearly have a player in mind that will go at 4 rather than 5. Having said that we definitely want to trade up with picks 18, 24 & 37 because there's every chance that by the time of the draft they'll become picks 24+ after North gets 1st round compensation for Ben McKay (Pick 3) plus gets gifted Ryley Sanders (Pick 7ish?) and GC take their 3 Northern Academy players.

The Bulldogs are likely to trade out Pick 10 for points to target Father/Son Jordan Croft and that might be a more achievable target than Pick 4. Picks 18 & 24 for Pick 10 + future 3rd round? Then we trade Pick 5, 10 & 37 for Harley Reid + Pick 54 😀.  West Coast would likely get their man Daniel Curtin at Pick 5.