POSTGAME: Rd 19 vs Adelaide

[Jaded No More 68,974]

18 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

An interesting stat.

No team that has finished 4th since 2000 has won a premiership...

Fairly sure it was the same re: 1st in 2021

We make history 

[rpfc 28,779]

5 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

Fairly sure it was the same re: 1st in 2021

We make history 

We do two things; eat grapes and make history. 

And we’re all outta grapes…

 

 

Really need to go to the grocery store…

[Watson11 2,243]

9 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

Fairly sure it was the same re: 1st in 2021

We make history 

Premiers by ladder position (2000-22)

1st:      8

2nd:     7

3rd:      7

4th:      0

5th:      0

6th:      0

7th:      1

8th:      0

[layzie 34,013]

9 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

An interesting stat.

No team that has finished 4th since 2000 has won a premiership...

Yeah I noticed that too. It seems to be the dead zone because you usually run into a road game or a team quite a bit better.

I'm thinking this year could be different as there isn't a lot of difference between us and Collingwood and it will be on the G regardless. I'd even go as far as saying that no game will shape the finals like that one in QF week. 

[binman 43,813]

28 minutes ago, layzie said:

Yeah I noticed that too. It seems to be the dead zone because you usually run into a road game or a team quite a bit better.

I'm thinking this year could be different as there isn't a lot of difference between us and Collingwood and it will be on the G regardless. I'd even go as far as saying that no game will shape the finals like that one in QF week. 

There is also a good chance we won't finish 4th.

Edited July 25, 2023 by binman

[titan_uranus 25,045]

10 hours ago, Fromgotowoewodin said:

Is there a meaningful distinction between being insane and holding views that are insane? 

Not that I’m willing to admit that thinking finishing 1st or 2nd is better than finishing 4th is an insane view.

Pre-Elon, when there were usable apps for it, less spam and nazis, and more footy chat. The good old days.

Yes, there is. But swap the word “insane” out for “stunning” if you want. It’s the view point you expressed that I’m addressing here. To focus on 4th as our worst result in three years is to minimise the achievement of being in the top 4 for three straight years. If there is a difference between 1/2 and 3/4, then it’s not significant enough IMO to lead with a negative outlook on our ladder position. 

[layzie 34,013]

7 minutes ago, binman said:

There is also a very good chance we won't finish 4th.

That chance is getting better by the day, yes. 

[titan_uranus 25,045]

9 minutes ago, binman said:

There is also a very good chance we won't finish 4th.

I wouldn’t call it “very good”. There’s a chance, sure, but I doubt we go 5-0 and I doubt Brisbane or Port are dropping enough games to slide past us. 

[binman 43,813]

39 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

I wouldn’t call it “very good”. There’s a chance, sure, but I doubt we go 5-0 and I doubt Brisbane or Port are dropping enough games to slide past us. 

Fair point. Have deleted very.

That said, I think we will go 5-0. 

And I think there is a very good chance the pies beat the lions at marvel. 

If the lions win their other 4, which I expect they will, and we win our last last 5, we will be on equal points.

In that scenario we would need to make up 6.3% - which at this stage of the season is a challenge. That said we play the roos and hawks. 

If the crows beat port, which would be a huge upset, but one I think is very much on the cards, particularly given it is a crows home game, I think there is a reasonable chance we finish on level points with them as next week they play cats at kp.

If port drop the next two, we win all five and lions go 4-1, all three teams finish on 68 points.

Port are 10 percentage points behind us now, so would finish fourth in that scenario. And the dees and lions would be scrapping for 2nd.

By the by I calculated the odds of us winning our last six games, using the bookies odds for the first two games and my estimate for the remainder (coz the bookies only have a market for the next 2 games).

I arrived at aprox 9-1 for winning our final 6 games.

Using that same method, the approximate odds of us winning our last 5 games are 5-1.

So our odds of winning our remaining games has almost halved from before the crows game.

(note: for context, the bookies have us @ 1.50 this week and 1.14 next week and I have priced our blues game @ 1.70, hawks game @ 1.20 and swans game @ 1.70)

By the by, the crows were 3.35 to beat port prior to their game against us.

Despite the crows playing super well against us, with ports super performance against the benchmark team in the pies and the crows losing two key players in rankine and Murray you might think those odds would remain much the same.

They haven't - the crows are into 2.92.

[Roost it far 8,627]

I think we lose to the Swans

[John Crow Batty 8,879]

The longer the drought the sooner it will end. This season the top 4 seem to be in a league of their own but no defined pecking order.

[whatwhat say what 22,948]

41 minutes ago, binman said:

If the crows beat port, which would be a huge upset, but one I think is very much on the cards, particularly given it is a crows home game, I think there is a reasonable chance we finish on level points with them as next week they play cats at kp.

i know the showdown is generally a lottery, but no rankine, no rachele, no murray is too many holes to cover imo

 

[Kent 2,914]

1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

I wouldn’t call it “very good”. There’s a chance, sure, but I doubt we go 5-0 and I doubt Brisbane or Port are dropping enough games to slide past us. 

I think there is a  chance that we can go 5 zip TU  we should given the draw.  Port 4-1  Brisbane at risk 2-3 and the pies have 2 challenging games could be 3-2

[old55 23,705]

17 hours ago, BDA said:

The blues list is lobsided so they may decide convert him into picks to address some needs.

channeling @Demonstone - that's the Dogs you're thinking of.

[Fromgotowoewodin 1,606]

3 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Yes, there is. But swap the word “insane” out for “stunning” if you want. It’s the view point you expressed that I’m addressing here. To focus on 4th as our worst result in three years is to minimise the achievement of being in the top 4 for three straight years. If there is a difference between 1/2 and 3/4, then it’s not significant enough IMO to lead with a negative outlook on our ladder position. 

Ladder position shows we’re not as dominant this year as the prior 2 (3 weeks in the top 2 this year, vs a total of 8 weeks out of the top 2 over the prior 2 years). Home final in the first week is also pretty handy (yes Pies at the G is neutral but depending on results we could be in Adelaide or Brisbane, yuck).

Now there are reasons for that drop, primarily injury (Gawn, Salem, Oliver, Fritsch, TMac, BBB all having extended time out), we’ve covered Oliver with depth, Fritsch with Melksham but haven’t yet found an overall fwd line solution. As I posted earlier it may come together but we’re cutting it finer than I’d like. 

There’s also a chance one of those teams that’s taken top 2 (Port) has their bubble burst, hopefully so..

I’ve never said it won’t come together but if we pull it off this will be harder than 2021. And if we don’t pull it off it only gets harder as key players get older. That’s just reality. 

Top 4 again is a great result compared to most of what we’ve seen over past decades, but if you’re printing “Top 4 3-years running” t-shirts maybe test early demand before you get too many done, most in the target market would prefer “Premiers 2023”.

[Tracca 853]

7 minutes ago, Fromgotowoewodin said:

Ladder position shows we’re not as dominant this year as the prior 2 (3 weeks in the top 2 this year, vs a total of 8 weeks out of the top 2 over the prior 2 years). Home final in the first week is also pretty handy (yes Pies at the G is neutral but depending on results we could be in Adelaide or Brisbane, yuck).

Now there are reasons for that drop, primarily injury (Gawn, Salem, Oliver, Fritsch, TMac, BBB all having extended time out), we’ve covered Oliver with depth, Fritsch with Melksham but haven’t yet found an overall fwd line solution. As I posted earlier it may come together but we’re cutting it finer than I’d like. 

There’s also a chance one of those teams that’s taken top 2 (Port) has their bubble burst, hopefully so..

I’ve never said it won’t come together but if we pull it off this will be harder than 2021. And if we don’t pull it off it only gets harder as key players get older. That’s just reality. 

Top 4 again is a great result compared to most of what we’ve seen over past decades, but if you’re printing “Top 4 3-years running” t-shirts maybe test early demand before you get too many done, most in the target market would prefer “Premiers 2023”.

your right in a sense that we had our [censored] together in 2021, whereas we are a bit all over the place due to injuries this year.

I think however the formula is there bar our tall forwards, mind you our tall forwards werent much chop in 2021 either, we relied on the Fritsch and spargo/kozzies to get us by, with cameos from McDonald and BBB in spurts.

You can see throughout various games this year that Goodwin has let the shackles off our defensive gameplay and then locked down games as well, this will give us versatility in finals with different styles of play, not just for a qtr, but for a whole game. 

Agreed it will be harder than 2021 purely from a personel on the field point of view, if we can settle on a best 22 barring injuries in the next 3 weeks then we will be ok. Not saying we will win but azs mentioned before, the formula is there, we just need fit players to execute it.

[Wodjathefirst 2,653]

4 hours ago, Watson11 said:

Premiers by ladder position (2000-22)

1st:      8

2nd:     7

3rd:      7

4th:      0

5th:      0

6th:      0

7th:      1

8th:      0

I sort of figure if we can’t finish 2nd at the end of the home and away (possible but bit of a long shot) I would much rather us finish 4th for very obvious reasons this year. 

 

[Roost it far 8,627]

Some of you may remember my confidence in 2021. As long as injuries stay away and Oliver comes back, it’s really hard not to see us winning the Flag this year. 

[Roger Mellie 4,103]

I'm ok if Geelong finishes fourth if that's the case, but still prefer 9th or lower.

[binman 43,813]

5 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Yes, there is. But swap the word “insane” out for “stunning” if you want. It’s the view point you expressed that I’m addressing here. To focus on 4th as our worst result in three years is to minimise the achievement of being in the top 4 for three straight years. If there is a difference between 1/2 and 3/4, then it’s not significant enough IMO to lead with a negative outlook on our ladder position. 

To illustrate this point, after round 19 last year we were in second position on the ladder.

After round 19 this season, we are fourth on the ladder.

In simple terms you might argue were were therefore traveling better last season at the corresponding point in the season.

Second is better than fourth right?

Well, leaving aside the fact we were beaten in round 19 last year by the Dogs (interestingly, like this years round 19 game it was also a high scoring game - 110 to 100), whilst we were in second, we were only 2 points clear of Freo in fifth spot and only 4 points clear of the blues in 7th spot!.

This season we are fourth after round 19. 

But we are 8 points clear of the Dogs in fifth spot.

Which position would Goody rather be in after round 19 - this year where a top 4 is all but certain or last year where it most certainly wasn't?

Edited July 26, 2023 by binman

[daisycutter 29,743]

6 minutes ago, binman said:

To illustrate this point, after round 19 last year we were in second position on the ladder.

After round 19 this season, we are fourth on the ladder.

In simple terms you might argue were were therefore traveling better last season at the corresponding point in the season.

Second is better than fourth right?

Well, leaving aside the fact we were beaten in round 19 last year by the Dogs (interestingly, like this years round 19 game it was also a high scoring game - 110 to 100), whilst were in second, we were only 2 points clear of Freo in fifth spot and only 4 points clear of the blues in 7th spot!.

This season we are fourth after round 19.  But we are 8 points clear of the Dogs in fifth spot.

Which position would Goody rather be in after round 19 - this year were a top 4 is all but certain or last year where it most certainly wasn't?

 

could also add that if we complete the season with all wins our losses (6) will be the same as last year

in fact betterwin/loss ratio  because of the extra game played this year

so last year 16 wins got us 2nd place

this year 17 wins would most likely only get us 4th place

what is better, number of wins or ladder position?

[Engorged Onion 10,223]

1 hour ago, Roost it far said:

Some of you may remember my confidence in 2021. As long as injuries stay away and Oliver comes back, it’s really hard not to see us winning the Flag this year. 

[daisycutter 29,743]

[daisycutter 29,743]

od's take

[daisycutter 29,743]

jaded's take