GAMEDAY: Rd 17 vs St. Kilda

[titan_uranus 24,963]

Things I am desperate to see:

1. A win
2. No injuries

Things I want to see but will forego if I get the above:

1. Better accuracy
2. More fluent ball movement
3. A lesser forward half press with defenders sitting further back
4. A reduction in our desire to have repeat stoppages in the forward 50
5. Pickett and Brown to look a million bucks

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

I missed the boat in the pregame thread to respond to @A F, so I'll respond here.

Quote

Well, we went to the pockets against Geelong too, but more often than not, we seemed to go to the 25m hot spot.

I'd love it if someone was actually able to back that up statistically. Is this data something you have access to @WheeloRatings?

Yes, this is something I have access to. I have looked at the locations of the result of kicks inside 50 and categorised them according to distance (0-20m, 20-35m, 35m+) and corridor v pocket. To determine the corridor, I extend the centre square to the 50m arc and then draw a line from that point to the goal posts.

Melbourne has gone to the 'hot spot' (20-35m out in the corridor) about 26% each of the time the last three matches, up from 20% for the season. We are far more likely to go to the hot spot in the third quarter.

The last table below shows that you are more likely to turn the ball over kicking to 20+ metres out in the corridor than  kicking to the pocket, which is something that @binman has spoken about quite a bit.

Location of Kicks Inside 50, Melbourne 2023, by Round

Round	Corridor			Pocket
	0-20m	20-35m	35+	0-20m	20-35m	35+
1	9.4	22.6	5.7	3.8	28.3	30.2
2	15.9	18.2	15.9	6.8	18.2	25.0
3	6.0	28.0	8.0	4.0	28.0	26.0
4	19.6	25.5	9.8	3.9	23.5	17.6
5	5.0	17.5	30.0	2.5	22.5	22.5
6	8.5	14.9	14.9	6.4	23.4	31.9
7	17.6	9.8	21.6	3.9	21.6	25.5
8	8.3	33.3	18.8	4.2	6.2	29.2
9	21.4	12.5	19.6	3.6	17.9	25.0
10	7.1	19.0	31.0	0.0	14.3	28.6
11	12.5	18.8	22.9	4.2	22.9	18.8
12	5.7	7.5	13.2	7.5	32.1	34.0
13	13.2	26.4	17.0	0.0	17.0	26.4
15	15.2	26.1	13.0	4.3	10.9	30.4
16	9.7	25.8	14.5	3.2	21.0	25.8

Location of Kicks Inside 50, Melbourne 2023, by Quarter

Period	Corridor			Pocket
	0-20m	20-35m	35+	0-20m	20-35m	35+
1	11.6	15.1	13.4	4.7	24.4	30.8
2	9.3	19.8	16.3	3.5	19.8	31.4
3	12.4	27.8	18.0	2.6	19.1	20.1
4	13.6	18.4	18.4	4.9	19.9	24.8

Location of Kicks Inside 50, 2023, by Team

Team	Corridor			Pocket
	0-20m	20-35m	35+	0-20m	20-35m	35+
St Kilda	8.0	27.8	19.4	2.0	19.8	23.0
Essendon	10.7	26.5	19.1	4.0	18.5	21.1
Greater Western Sydney	10.6	24.4	21.2	3.9	18.1	21.8
North Melbourne	7.5	24.0	25.1	4.4	18.9	20.1
Gold Coast	11.2	23.9	18.8	4.4	20.0	21.7
Port Adelaide	9.0	23.4	23.7	3.6	17.4	22.8
Sydney	11.7	23.3	23.3	4.6	15.4	21.6
Fremantle	7.0	22.5	22.3	4.1	22.3	21.7
Hawthorn	9.3	22.0	21.7	4.3	21.2	21.5
Collingwood	12.5	21.2	17.7	5.5	16.5	26.6
Western Bulldogs	9.9	20.6	13.8	5.7	23.3	26.8
Adelaide	9.6	20.5	20.7	3.4	18.6	27.2
Melbourne	11.8	20.4	16.7	3.9	20.7	26.5
Geelong	7.4	20.2	19.9	4.0	21.0	27.4
Carlton	9.3	19.9	16.6	5.4	20.5	28.2
Richmond	9.4	19.7	18.6	5.6	22.9	23.8
Brisbane	9.8	18.4	15.2	6.6	23.6	26.4
West Coast	8.0	17.4	19.0	5.2	24.7	25.8

Location of Kicks Inside 50, 2021-2023, by Chain Result

Result	Corridor			Pocket
	0-20m	20-35m	35+	0-20m	20-35m	35+
Score	51.7	33.9	33.2	44.7	29.3	30.0
Stoppage	11.6	12.5	9.6	24.3	25.2	19.9
Turnover	36.7	53.5	57.2	31.0	45.5	50.1

 

[leave it to deever 17,510]

6 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

WIll be interesting to see our f50 set up.  Petty can swing there.  jack or Trac could also set up there.  Woey to play high half forward and to act as second winger. Think we are a 25% better talent pool than them, especially with their outs.  Need to smash them early and ensure both teams get the script.  Proper kicking - 35 point win,  Shizen kicking - 4 point win.

Can't afford JV off the ball with Oliver out and Trac can't kick goals. Not sure we can cover Petty moving fwd although we certainly need another tall there. 

[beelzebub 23,312]

6 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

I missed the boat in the pregame thread to respond to @A F, so I'll respond here.

Yes, this is something I have access to. I have looked at the locations of the result of kicks inside 50 and categorised them according to distance (0-20m, 20-35m, 35m+) and corridor v pocket. To determine the corridor, I extend the centre square to the 50m arc and then draw a line from that point to the goal posts.

Melbourne has gone to the 'hot spot' (20-35m out in the corridor) about 26% each of the time the last three matches, up from 20% for the season. We are far more likely to go to the hot spot in the third quarter.

The last table below shows that you are more likely to turn the ball over kicking to 20+ metres out in the corridor than  kicking to the pocket, which is something that @binman has spoken about quite a bit.

Location of Kicks Inside 50, Melbourne 2023, by Round

Round	Corridor			Pocket
	0-20m	20-35m	35+	0-20m	20-35m	35+
1	9.4	22.6	5.7	3.8	28.3	30.2
2	15.9	18.2	15.9	6.8	18.2	25.0
3	6.0	28.0	8.0	4.0	28.0	26.0
4	19.6	25.5	9.8	3.9	23.5	17.6
5	5.0	17.5	30.0	2.5	22.5	22.5
6	8.5	14.9	14.9	6.4	23.4	31.9
7	17.6	9.8	21.6	3.9	21.6	25.5
8	8.3	33.3	18.8	4.2	6.2	29.2
9	21.4	12.5	19.6	3.6	17.9	25.0
10	7.1	19.0	31.0	0.0	14.3	28.6
11	12.5	18.8	22.9	4.2	22.9	18.8
12	5.7	7.5	13.2	7.5	32.1	34.0
13	13.2	26.4	17.0	0.0	17.0	26.4
15	15.2	26.1	13.0	4.3	10.9	30.4
16	9.7	25.8	14.5	3.2	21.0	25.8

Location of Kicks Inside 50, Melbourne 2023, by Quarter

Period	Corridor			Pocket
	0-20m	20-35m	35+	0-20m	20-35m	35+
1	11.6	15.1	13.4	4.7	24.4	30.8
2	9.3	19.8	16.3	3.5	19.8	31.4
3	12.4	27.8	18.0	2.6	19.1	20.1
4	13.6	18.4	18.4	4.9	19.9	24.8

Location of Kicks Inside 50, 2023, by Team

Team	Corridor			Pocket
	0-20m	20-35m	35+	0-20m	20-35m	35+
St Kilda	8.0	27.8	19.4	2.0	19.8	23.0
Essendon	10.7	26.5	19.1	4.0	18.5	21.1
Greater Western Sydney	10.6	24.4	21.2	3.9	18.1	21.8
North Melbourne	7.5	24.0	25.1	4.4	18.9	20.1
Gold Coast	11.2	23.9	18.8	4.4	20.0	21.7
Port Adelaide	9.0	23.4	23.7	3.6	17.4	22.8
Sydney	11.7	23.3	23.3	4.6	15.4	21.6
Fremantle	7.0	22.5	22.3	4.1	22.3	21.7
Hawthorn	9.3	22.0	21.7	4.3	21.2	21.5
Collingwood	12.5	21.2	17.7	5.5	16.5	26.6
Western Bulldogs	9.9	20.6	13.8	5.7	23.3	26.8
Adelaide	9.6	20.5	20.7	3.4	18.6	27.2
Melbourne	11.8	20.4	16.7	3.9	20.7	26.5
Geelong	7.4	20.2	19.9	4.0	21.0	27.4
Carlton	9.3	19.9	16.6	5.4	20.5	28.2
Richmond	9.4	19.7	18.6	5.6	22.9	23.8
Brisbane	9.8	18.4	15.2	6.6	23.6	26.4
West Coast	8.0	17.4	19.0	5.2	24.7	25.8

Location of Kicks Inside 50, 2021-2023, by Chain Result

Result	Corridor			Pocket
	0-20m	20-35m	35+	0-20m	20-35m	35+
Score	51.7	33.9	33.2	44.7	29.3	30.0
Stoppage	11.6	12.5	9.6	24.3	25.2	19.9
Turnover	36.7	53.5	57.2	31.0	45.5	50.1

 

How much more likely though to kick a sausage from the corridor as opposed the pockets.

It's not, imo, about having the ball, its being productive with it.

Grand effort on your stuff . Cheers 

 

[Clintosaurus 7,809]

We'll win, but it won't cure the MFCSS pandemic in here. You must all be fun at parties.

[The heart beats true 18,089]

2 minutes ago, Clintosaurus said:

You must all be fun at parties.

Jokes on you Clint.

I haven’t been invited to a party in years.

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

7 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

How much more likely though to kick a sausage from the corridor as opposed the pockets.

It's not, imo, about having the ball, its being productive with it.

Grand effort on your stuff . Cheers 

 

Yes, that is true! I'd need to look at chains following a stoppage to see the eventual outcome, but yes, you are more likely to score a goal from a shot in the corridor compared to the pocket:

Result	Corridor			Pocket
	0-20m	20-35m	35+	0-20m	20-35m	35+
Goal	79.8	58.3	48.2	53.8	42.3	36.6
Behind	14.6	29.3	37.0	31.9	39.5	39.6
No Score	5.6	12.4	14.8	14.3	18.2	23.7

[binman 42,494]

9 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

I missed the boat in the pregame thread to respond to @A F, so I'll respond here.

Yes, this is something I have access to. I have looked at the locations of the result of kicks inside 50 and categorised them according to distance (0-20m, 20-35m, 35m+) and corridor v pocket. To determine the corridor, I extend the centre square to the 50m arc and then draw a line from that point to the goal posts.

Melbourne has gone to the 'hot spot' (20-35m out in the corridor) about 26% each of the time the last three matches, up from 20% for the season. We are far more likely to go to the hot spot in the third quarter.

The last table below shows that you are more likely to turn the ball over kicking to 20+ metres out in the corridor than  kicking to the pocket, which is something that @binman has spoken about quite a bit.

Location of Kicks Inside 50, Melbourne 2023, by Round

Round	Corridor			Pocket
	0-20m	20-35m	35+	0-20m	20-35m	35+
1	9.4	22.6	5.7	3.8	28.3	30.2
2	15.9	18.2	15.9	6.8	18.2	25.0
3	6.0	28.0	8.0	4.0	28.0	26.0
4	19.6	25.5	9.8	3.9	23.5	17.6
5	5.0	17.5	30.0	2.5	22.5	22.5
6	8.5	14.9	14.9	6.4	23.4	31.9
7	17.6	9.8	21.6	3.9	21.6	25.5
8	8.3	33.3	18.8	4.2	6.2	29.2
9	21.4	12.5	19.6	3.6	17.9	25.0
10	7.1	19.0	31.0	0.0	14.3	28.6
11	12.5	18.8	22.9	4.2	22.9	18.8
12	5.7	7.5	13.2	7.5	32.1	34.0
13	13.2	26.4	17.0	0.0	17.0	26.4
15	15.2	26.1	13.0	4.3	10.9	30.4
16	9.7	25.8	14.5	3.2	21.0	25.8

Location of Kicks Inside 50, Melbourne 2023, by Quarter

Period	Corridor			Pocket
	0-20m	20-35m	35+	0-20m	20-35m	35+
1	11.6	15.1	13.4	4.7	24.4	30.8
2	9.3	19.8	16.3	3.5	19.8	31.4
3	12.4	27.8	18.0	2.6	19.1	20.1
4	13.6	18.4	18.4	4.9	19.9	24.8

Location of Kicks Inside 50, 2023, by Team

Team	Corridor			Pocket
	0-20m	20-35m	35+	0-20m	20-35m	35+
St Kilda	8.0	27.8	19.4	2.0	19.8	23.0
Essendon	10.7	26.5	19.1	4.0	18.5	21.1
Greater Western Sydney	10.6	24.4	21.2	3.9	18.1	21.8
North Melbourne	7.5	24.0	25.1	4.4	18.9	20.1
Gold Coast	11.2	23.9	18.8	4.4	20.0	21.7
Port Adelaide	9.0	23.4	23.7	3.6	17.4	22.8
Sydney	11.7	23.3	23.3	4.6	15.4	21.6
Fremantle	7.0	22.5	22.3	4.1	22.3	21.7
Hawthorn	9.3	22.0	21.7	4.3	21.2	21.5
Collingwood	12.5	21.2	17.7	5.5	16.5	26.6
Western Bulldogs	9.9	20.6	13.8	5.7	23.3	26.8
Adelaide	9.6	20.5	20.7	3.4	18.6	27.2
Melbourne	11.8	20.4	16.7	3.9	20.7	26.5
Geelong	7.4	20.2	19.9	4.0	21.0	27.4
Carlton	9.3	19.9	16.6	5.4	20.5	28.2
Richmond	9.4	19.7	18.6	5.6	22.9	23.8
Brisbane	9.8	18.4	15.2	6.6	23.6	26.4
West Coast	8.0	17.4	19.0	5.2	24.7	25.8

Location of Kicks Inside 50, 2021-2023, by Chain Result

Result	Corridor			Pocket
	0-20m	20-35m	35+	0-20m	20-35m	35+
Score	51.7	33.9	33.2	44.7	29.3	30.0
Stoppage	11.6	12.5	9.6	24.3	25.2	19.9
Turnover	36.7	53.5	57.2	31.0	45.5	50.1

 

Fascinating data wheello.

Contradicts somewhat the idea that out inaccuracy is caused by our entries ie that we are having heaps of difficult shots becuase we have been kicking to the pockets more

An interesting stat from the last 4 games is the percentage of shots from the pocket but from 35 meters plus. It is those shots that are the most likely to miss the shots.

There has been a slight increase it seems from our season average of such shots in the last 4 games.

I think in part that could be explained by tow interacted elements:

• we are not moving the ball at speed and so are not creating free players inside 50 
• our territory and inside 50 dominance means the ball is trapped in our front half a lot, which creates a super congested forward area 9and few free players to spot up) and shots from near the 50 metre arc from intercepts marks from dump clearing kicks from oppo defenders 

When we start moving the  ball quicker i expect there will be less kicks from the pockets and 35 plus metres out.

On the data for the last four rounds, it is important to consider how wet it was in the cats and giants games. 

[Roost it far 8,116]

20 minutes ago, Clintosaurus said:

We'll win, but it won't cure the MFCSS pandemic in here. You must all be fun at parties.

I’m awesome at parties

Dees by 42

[beelzebub 23,312]

10 minutes ago, binman said:

Fascinating data wheello.

Contradicts somewhat the idea that out inaccuracy is caused by our entries ie that we are having heaps of difficult shots becuase we have been kicking to the pockets more

An interesting stat from the last 4 games is the percentage of shots from the pocket but from 35 meters plus. It is those shots that are the most likely to miss the shots.

There has been a slight increase it seems from our season average of such shots in the last 4 games.

I think in part that could be explained by tow interacted elements:

• we are not moving the ball at speed and so are not creating free players inside 50 
• our territory and inside 50 dominance means the ball is trapped in our front half a lot, which creates a super congested forward area 9and few free players to spot up) and shots from near the 50 metre arc from intercepts marks from dump clearing kicks from oppo defenders 

When we start moving the  ball quicker i expect there will be less kicks from the pockets and 35 plus metres out.

On the data for the last four rounds, it is important to consider how wet it was in the cats and giants games. 

Rubbish...  it simply predicts two things really..  you may retain the ball more in a pocket...and youre far more likely to score in the corridor. 

Pleased dont offef up the falacy that greater retention = scoring.

This is the greatest furphy of all...

Its about efficiency and accuracy.

You may not have ir as much where youd like it...but youll score higher.

Stangely the game is about the latter not the former. 

The best teams over history are the ones that dont stuff around.

[Emerald 1,744]

19 minutes ago, Clintosaurus said:

We'll win, but it won't cure the MFCSS pandemic in here. You must all be fun at parties.

I'm interstate, don't own a television so I rely on the GameDay threads to see how the matches go and I swear I'm back in the Neeld era every week.

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

11 minutes ago, binman said:

Fascinating data wheello.

Contradicts somewhat the idea that out inaccuracy is caused by our entries ie that we are having heaps of difficult shots becuase we have been kicking to the pockets more

An interesting stat from the last 4 games is the percentage of shots from the pocket but from 35 meters plus. It is those shots that are the most likely to miss the shots.

There has been a slight increase it seems from our season average of such shots in the last 4 games.

I think in part that could be explained by tow interacted elements:

• we are not moving the ball at speed and so are not creating free players inside 50 
• our territory and inside 50 dominance means the ball is trapped in our front half a lot, which creates a super congested forward area 9and few free players to spot up) and shots from near the 50 metre arc from intercepts marks from dump clearing kicks from oppo defenders 

When we start moving the  ball quicker i expect there will be less kicks from the pockets and 35 plus metres out.

On the data for the last four rounds, it is important to consider how wet it was in the cats and giants games. 

Sorry I should clarify that those figures relate to where we're kicking to when we're going inside 50, but not necessarily resulting in a shot at goal.

Here are the locations of our shots at goal by round.

Shots at goal location, Melbourne 2023, by Round

Round	Corridor			Pocket
	0-20m	20-35m	35+	0-20m	20-35m	35+
1	16.7	10.0	20.0	10.0	20.0	23.3
2	28.6	4.8	14.3	0.0	9.5	42.9
3	3.0	30.3	18.2	6.1	9.1	33.3
4	12.5	21.9	25.0	6.2	12.5	21.9
5	4.0	8.0	28.0	4.0	12.0	44.0
6	11.5	19.2	15.4	0.0	7.7	46.2
7	13.3	13.3	23.3	6.7	16.7	26.7
8	7.7	15.4	34.6	3.8	15.4	23.1
9	10.3	24.1	27.6	0.0	10.3	27.6
10	13.0	17.4	30.4	8.7	13.0	17.4
11	0.0	11.5	42.3	7.7	15.4	23.1
12	11.1	0.0	22.2	7.4	25.9	33.3
13	3.6	7.1	32.1	7.1	7.1	42.9
15	22.7	27.3	4.5	0.0	22.7	22.7
16	7.7	15.4	26.9	7.7	26.9	15.4

[binman 42,494]

2 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Rubbish...  it simply predicts two things really..  you may retain the ball more in a pocket...and youre far more likely to score in the corridor. 

Pleased dont offef up the falacy that greater retention = scoring.

This is the greatest furphy of all...

Its about efficiency and accuracy.

You may not have ir as much where youd like it...but youll score higher.

Stangely the game is about the latter not the former. 

The best teams over history are the ones that dont stuff around.

What the hell is this?

Are you responding to the right post?

Or have you really misinterpreted and/or misrepresented what i wrote so wildly?

Note: i don't really care which of the above it is, but if the latter save your legs, as i'm not going to go to the effort to explain why you have got it so wrong. 

[Newport34 380]

Will we win today?

YES!

Why? Because we have to. Otherwise I will remove my TV from the wall and throw it out the window.

Bartender, pour me another drink!

SN34 

[binman 42,494]

4 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

Sorry I should clarify that those figures relate to where we're kicking to when we're going inside 50, but not necessarily resulting in a shot at goal.

Here are the locations of our shots at goal by round.

Shots at goal location, Melbourne 2023, by Round

Round	Corridor			Pocket
	0-20m	20-35m	35+	0-20m	20-35m	35+
1	16.7	10.0	20.0	10.0	20.0	23.3
2	28.6	4.8	14.3	0.0	9.5	42.9
3	3.0	30.3	18.2	6.1	9.1	33.3
4	12.5	21.9	25.0	6.2	12.5	21.9
5	4.0	8.0	28.0	4.0	12.0	44.0
6	11.5	19.2	15.4	0.0	7.7	46.2
7	13.3	13.3	23.3	6.7	16.7	26.7
8	7.7	15.4	34.6	3.8	15.4	23.1
9	10.3	24.1	27.6	0.0	10.3	27.6
10	13.0	17.4	30.4	8.7	13.0	17.4
11	0.0	11.5	42.3	7.7	15.4	23.1
12	11.1	0.0	22.2	7.4	25.9	33.3
13	3.6	7.1	32.1	7.1	7.1	42.9
15	22.7	27.3	4.5	0.0	22.7	22.7
16	7.7	15.4	26.9	7.7	26.9	15.4

Ta.

Doesn't change the analysis that there is only slight increase in the percentage of shots from the pockets in the last 4 games over our season average, and that therefore our inaccuracy in the last few weeks can't be explained by us taking a lot more difficult shots. 

In fact, the the cats game we had the second highest percentage of shots from dead in front 20-35 meters of any game his season (only behind the 30.3% of shots from from the corridor 20-35 meters in our mauling of the Swans in round 3)

[640MD 3,346]

3 hours ago, binman said:

All top deck usually. Or at least top deck behind each goal.

Each goal we get I will be singing loud and strong

[Deebymistake 772]

Ticket question - I just tried to purchase 2 member upgrade tickets then and nothing seems available.  I imagine my daughter and I should be able to show our home & away membership at the gate and sit in general admission.  Surely it is not a sell out?  

[binman 42,494]

2 minutes ago, Newport34 said:

Will we win today?

YES!

Why? Because we have to. Otherwise I will remove my TV from the wall and throw it out the window.

Bartender, pour me another drink!

SN34 

Pace yourself newie

[Roost it far 8,116]

I’m going tonight, rarely go to Marvel because it’s a siht hole plain and simple. However the viewing from level 2 is exceptional and a friend got the tickets. People who think we’ll lose simply looking at the last 2 weeks might want to take a peek at our oppositions last 2 matches. The Saints are truly ordinary. We on the other hand are more than handy. Really looking forward to tonight. 
Go Dee’s, unleash hell upon the Saints.

[Sydee 4,378]

Most important game of the season to date IMO - we really need a win here otherwise too 4 looks extremely unlikely 

[beelzebub 23,312]

28 minutes ago, binman said:

What the hell is this?

Are you responding to the right post?

Or have you really misinterpreted and/or misrepresented what i wrote so wildly?

Note: i don't really care which of the above it is, but if the latter save your legs, as i'm not going to go to the effort to explain why you have got it so wrong. 

You dont like being challenged eh.

Go back and read again. Its not that complicated though you love to make everything exactly that.

Or not.. 

 

[dees189227 12,361]

So tonight Neal Bullen and kozzie need to lift.

Trac needs to convert those shots into goals. A player if his standard should do better.

Also excited to see what Taj can do

[Guest]

4 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

I got $10 tickets thru the Demon Army which is level 1 wing, for those not wanting to sit on the top level. Also good cause to support our friend @WalkingCivilWar 😉
(It’s for the seat only you still need a ticket or membership to get in)

I’m glad you got those tickets, especially through us. St Kilda is usually generous with the number of tickets they allow us but not so today for whatever reason. 🤷‍♀️ 

[The heart beats true 18,089]

 

9 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

I’m glad you got those tickets, especially through us. St Kilda is usually generous with the number of tickets they allow us but not so today for whatever reason. 🤷‍♀️ 

I would have taken up this offer had I known! I brought a reserved seat for $60.

[Lord Travis 10,685]

It’s an 8 point game as winner goes a game clear in fourth, so we need to win tonight. Saints have some bad outs so no excuses if we lose.

Looking forward to seeing young Woe and hope he shows a bit of dash and skill.