The Run Home

[biggestred 5,094]

Anyone know when r24 will be released?? 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

22 hours ago, A F said:

The absolute ideal scenario is us hosting Port or Brisbane at the MCG in a QF. But I concede this is very unlikely, it could happen though and that's a better outcome than Collingwood in a QF. We can win the flag from 4th, 3rd or 2nd.

As I said, and I agree we can win from 2nd through to 4th. I'm not conceding we're going to lose any QF matchup no matter where it's played. But if we do lose a QF we don't want to be playing Geelong in a SF. Melbourne just need to focus on firming up Top 4 which is totally within our control. The rest will be what it will be (que sera, sera).

[Satan 2,872]

4 hours ago, biggestred said:

Anyone know when r24 will be released?? 

Buddys last game  at home after a week rest ( assuming swans cant make finals) 

need to win enough games so last round is not dependent on us going out of top 4 and relying on other results

 

Edited July 20, 2023 by Satan

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,842]

4 hours ago, biggestred said:

Anyone know when r24 will be released?? 

Last year it was released 26 July, but given it's a week later this year, I would guess this year's release will be the first week of August.

I predict either Saturday 7:25pm or Sunday 3:20pm.

Edited July 20, 2023 by Bring-Back-Powell

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,842]

Top 2 is not critical. We just need to focus on the top 4 and go 4-2 to finish the season provided Geelong loses just once.

The last time first and second both made a grand final was 2014. One of the grand finalist is invariably 3rd, 4th or 5th.

[McQueen 17,864]

I have this bizarre feeling that so many of the games of recent rounds seem to be either falling in our favour, or being a neutralised contest anyway - like tonight‘s game with the power and the magpies.

it’s an uneasy feeling I think to treat this as a bonus for us. It’s almost that protective buffer you’d rather do without . I still believe that we are a very good team and that when it clicks, and we are fit and everything lines up…. then we can be in the conversation for the premiership.

But those two top teams tonight were very, very impressive. 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

On 7/21/2023 at 10:26 AM, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Top 2 is not critical. We just need to focus on the top 4 and go 4-2 to finish the season provided Geelong loses just once.

The last time first and second both made a grand final was 2014. One of the grand finalist is invariably 3rd, 4th or 5th.

Collingwood are now certain to finish top. If we win tomorrow it will be hard for anyone to overtake us for 4th. We'll be 2 games and massive percentage clear of the 5th team which means we'll only need to win 2 of 5. Still, I'm taking nothing for granted. We need to beat Adelaide first.

I agree finishing Top 2 isn't critical. But Top 2 is definitely better than Top 4. Rather than looking at who makes Grand Finals, who wins them? Under the current system (23 years) premiers have been minor premiers 8 times, have come from 2nd & 3rd 7 times reach, and from 7th once (Bulldogs 2016). So side has come from 4th (or 5th, 6th or 8th).

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

18 minutes ago, McQueen said:

I have this bizarre feeling that so many of the games of recent rounds seem to be either falling in our favour, or being a neutralised contest anyway - like tonight‘s game with the power and the magpies.

it’s an uneasy feeling I think to treat this as a bonus for us. It’s almost that protective buffer you’d rather do without . I still believe that we are a very good team and that when it clicks, and we are fit and everything lines up…. then we can be in the conversation for the premiership.

But those two top teams tonight were very, very impressive. 

I'd say Melbourne & Brisbane were just as impressive last week . Melbourne has beaten Brisbane & Collingwood the most recent times we played them and lost to Port by 4 points in Adelaide. Despite the gap at the very top for Collingwood I'd say the 4 teams top 4 right now are very evenly matched.

[Adam The God 30,261]

10 hours ago, Sydney_Demon said:

I'd say Melbourne & Brisbane were just as impressive last week . Melbourne has beaten Brisbane & Collingwood the most recent times we played them and lost to Port by 4 points in Adelaide. Despite the gap at the very top for Collingwood I'd say the 4 teams top 4 right now are very evenly matched.

Conversely, Collingwood have only beaten Port twice and lost to us and Brisbane.

I agree though, top 4 teams are very evenly matched and then there's daylight between the rest of the comp. Geelong would lead the rest of the pack, but away from Geelong are very middle of the road.

Edited July 23, 2023 by A F

[dazzledavey36 54,947]

The best outcome for us would be to finish 2nd. 

It's reachable and getting a home final against the Lions or Port would be ideal imo.

[Demon17 5,188]

8 hours ago, Sydney_Demon said:

Collingwood are now certain to finish top. If we win tomorrow it will be hard for anyone to overtake us for 4th. We'll be 2 games and massive percentage clear of the 5th team which means we'll only need to win 2 of 5. Still, I'm taking nothing for granted. We need to beat Adelaide first.

I agree finishing Top 2 isn't critical. But Top 2 is definitely better than Top 4. Rather than looking at who makes Grand Finals, who wins them? Under the current system (23 years) premiers have been minor premiers 8 times, have come from 2nd & 3rd 7 times reach, and from 7th once (Bulldogs 2016). So side has come from 4th (or 5th, 6th or 8th).

Great points Syd,  but I am hoping this year being 4th, and having Pies at home in Week 1 gives us the best chance.  If we win great, if not then we don't front Pies till GF if we get there, and have a week 2 home final also?  Not ideal  I admit.

BTW - not relevant but the Tiges won the Flag from 4th in 1969.  Makes me feel better at least,

[leave it to deever 17,511]

13 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

Great points Syd,  but I am hoping this year being 4th, and having Pies at home in Week 1 gives us the best chance.  If we win great, if not then we don't front Pies till GF if we get there, and have a week 2 home final also?  Not ideal  I admit.

BTW - not relevant but the Tiges won the Flag from 4th in 1969.  Makes me feel better at least,

I think the gap on form bw fourth and first is usually quite higher than this season. We have beaten both first and third so it's not a biggie for us finishing fourth and winning a flag. Under no circumstances do I want to play port in front of a ferral home crowd in our first final.

[Rab D Nesbitt 8,367]

I'm taking more of a philosophical view on this subject as I can't decide who the lesser of three evils are to play or avoid. Given the opportunity however I'd prefer not to be in close proximity to Collingwood's putrid fan base again this year. 

[rpfc 28,450]

Winning form is good form at this point, even if it means going to the Gabba.

Having said that, we may prioritise resting May, Gawn, and some other stars.

[BDA 22,755]

Finish 2nd and stay at the G is the best outcome.

A trip to AO holds no fear. We can beat Port over there.

I'd rather not go to the Gabba. 

[YearOfTheDees 3,266]

Week by week and hope Port drop another two games. However to finish 4th I think we would need to drop another game. Can't see the Lions winning six straight even at home. 

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,396]

5 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

The best outcome for us would be to finish 2nd. 

It's reachable and getting a home final against the Lions or Port would be ideal imo.

Problem is now that is dependent on other results. 

[BDA 22,755]

Tiges, Carlton and Swans games looking more difficult than they did 2 weeks ago. We'll do well to win all our remaining games.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

11 hours ago, Demon17 said:

Great points Syd,  but I am hoping this year being 4th, and having Pies at home in Week 1 gives us the best chance.  If we win great, if not then we don't front Pies till GF if we get there, and have a week 2 home final also?  Not ideal  I admit.

BTW - not relevant but the Tiges won the Flag from 4th in 1969.  Makes me feel better at least,

Realistically 4th is much more likely and probably better than 3rd (if not the even less obtainable 2nd), and at least we know now that that game will almost be certainly against Collingwood. For what it's worth (probably not much) my theory is the 4th team has the toughest QF (against the top team) and after likely losing that game has a tough SF against a team not much worse than them (5th usually) who has has had a much easier game aginst the 8th team. Then a PF against the 2nd best team and a rematch in the GF against the minor premiers (path is usually against teams 1, 5, 2 & 1!!!). Of course we knock off Collingwood and that all changes 😀  

11 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

I think the gap on form bw fourth and first is usually quite higher than this season. We have beaten both first and third so it's not a biggie for us finishing fourth and winning a flag. Under no circumstances do I want to play port in front of a ferral home crowd in our first final.

Although Port's home record in Finals is not great.

8 hours ago, BDA said:

Finish 2nd and stay at the G is the best outcome.

A trip to AO holds no fear. We can beat Port over there.

I'd rather not go to the Gabba. 

We did thrash them there late last year pre-Finals.

24 minutes ago, BDA said:

Tiges, Carlton and Swans games looking more difficult than they did 2 weeks ago. We'll do well to win all our remaining games.

I agree. Although I really can't see Richmond as a threat next weekend. The good thing is we'll know the result of the Queensland & South Australian derbies before we play. 

[brendan 3,437]

If 4th is locked in by the time we play the swans are we resting gawn, may, petracca and a few others to be cherry ripe 

[old55 23,595]

1 hour ago, brendan said:

If 4th is locked in by the time we play the swans are we resting gawn, may, petracca and a few others to be cherry ripe 

There's a week off before finals. They probably play, maybe reduced minutes.

[Great Northern Summer 708]

2 hours ago, brendan said:

If 4th is locked in by the time we play the swans are we resting gawn, may, petracca and a few others to be cherry ripe 

Not if 2nd is still a possibility then

[fr_ap 2,488]

1 hour ago, old55 said:

There's a week off before finals. They probably play, maybe reduced minutes.

Is there? Why did I think round 24 replaced the week off? 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

1 hour ago, fr_ap said:

Is there? Why did I think round 24 replaced the week off? 

Well, only you can aswer that question 😀

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,842]

Top 4's looking good.

We can actually sneak into the top 4 by only beating North and Hawthorn if all of the following very possible events occur:

1) Collingwood beat Carlton

2) Collingwood beat Geelong

3) Dogs or Carlton or Port beat GWS which are all away games.

4) Brisbane or Richmond or Geelong beat St Kilda

5) Port or Dogs beat Richmond

6) Geelong beat Dogs in Geelong

But who wants to limp into finals losing to all of Richmond, Carlton and Sydney?

Beating Richmond next week will almost seal the deal.

Unfortunately Brisbane are looking good for top 2 if they can won one more than Port. They have a good run home aside from Collingwood at Marvel.