How many wins will see us play finals?

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 11,019]

7 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Thanks.  Updated.

Good work.  Here on DL we hold ourselfs the highest of editorial and typesetting standards you know.

[layzie 34,376]

13 is probably the banker 

[IRW 1,388]

13 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

Forget finals. Don’t finish top 4 and get a home final and we are cooked. 
We need 16 wins minimum IMO to give the flag a shake. 

Can't see them beating the top sides anyway given the way they are currently playing against  spuds

[Adam The God 30,644]

What odd framing for a thread. I'd be extremely surprised, as would the rest of the footy world, if we're not inside the top 4, let alone the 8 by the end of the year.

I think we'll get 16+ wins.

[leave it to deever 17,598]

32 minutes ago, A F said:

What odd framing for a thread. I'd be extremely surprised, as would the rest of the footy world, if we're not inside the top 4, let alone the 8 by the end of the year.

I think we'll get 16+ wins.

I love your optimism.  How many wins for home finals is a better question. Yea, I hope we do crack 16 but my biggest concern is injuries. 21 was a dream run in this area. This year hasn't been great so a lot of luck is still needed. 16 will definitely see us in top 4. I'm not too confident we will get that number though . I think maybe 14 or 15 tops. But I reckon the way the comp is that will still be top 4. I am also interested about what other teams will need too.

Edited May 7, 2023 by leave it to deever

[BDA 23,031]

7 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

I love your optimism.  How many wins for home finals is a better question. Yea, I hope we do crack 16 but my biggest concern is injuries. 21 was a dream run in this area. This year hasn't been great so a lot of luck is still needed. 16 will definitely see us in top 4. I'm not too confident we will get that number though . I think maybe 14 or 15 tops. But I reckon the way the comp is that will still be top 4.

If we can’t win 16 games given our double ups (thanks for pointing this out @Lucifers Hero) then we can forget about the flag.

we’ll finish top 4. Top 2 will depend how we go against the other contenders.

[leave it to deever 17,598]

20 minutes ago, BDA said:

If we can’t win 16 games given our double ups (thanks for pointing this out @Lucifers Hero) then we can forget about the flag.

we’ll finish top 4. Top 2 will depend how we go against the other contenders.

Yea, I've been going through the fixture and 16 means we can only really only lose one game at the G...maybe Pies or Lions. Lose to only one of those is 8 wins at home plus 8 points from gws @ TIO and North @ bludstone.  It allows for Port beating us in Adelaide, Saints at Marvel, Cats beating us in Geelong and Swans in Sydney.  

But as the old footy cliche goes.....One week at a time.

Edited May 7, 2023 by leave it to deever

[Lucifers Hero 40,558]

19 minutes ago, BDA said:

If we can’t win 16 games given our double ups (thanks for pointing this out @Lucifers Hero) then we can forget about the flag.

we’ll finish top 4. Top 2 will depend how we go against the other contenders.

It could be 17 wins as there is an extra game this year. 

But given the gap between the top 4 and the next 4, 16 wins and % wil probably do it.

[Neil Crompton 5,780]

1 hour ago, IRW said:

Can't see them beating the top sides anyway given the way they are currently playing against  spuds

I hope I have misread this and you are not using “them” and “they” to refer to the MFC, because a true supporter would say”us” and “we”. So I must have misread this, right?

[Demonstone 23,426]

He also seems to have forgotten that 90 point win against "spuds" only last week.

[DeeZone 10,483]

I agree that 13 guarantees top 8 but thinking 16 gets us top 4 and barring serious injuries we have the list to achieve 16+ wins. Go Dees.!!!

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,477]

With our list anything but top 4 would be not be good.

[Jaded No More 68,976]

You have to finish top 4 to win a flag. With an extra in season game, the double chance and the opportunity at an extra week off is more important than ever. 
Even if I think the top 8 will be made up mostly of Victorian teams, you also want the safety net of a home final. 

We have a good fixture once we get to the bye and over the constant travel. If we don't finish top 4, which means 16-18 wins, it will be a wasted season. 

Edited May 7, 2023 by Jaded No More

[old55 23,847]

2 hours ago, Neil Crompton said:

I hope I have misread this and you are not using “them” and “they” to refer to the MFC, because a true supporter would say”us” and “we”. So I must have misread this, right?

No doubt it was "us" and "we" in September 2021

[Nascent 9,336]

15 hours ago, dl4e said:

And the South Australian filth ? Ross Lyon and his easy draw ?

Don't fully trust St Kilda yet personally but they aren't without a chance. Port have a friendly draw so definitely can't rule them out.

[leave it to deever 17,598]

2 hours ago, Nascent said:

Don't fully trust St Kilda yet personally but they aren't without a chance. Port have a friendly draw so definitely can't rule them out.

I put power in for sure. Saints have a fairly good draw too so I think they're in as well.

[IRW 1,388]

8 hours ago, Neil Crompton said:

I hope I have misread this and you are not using “them” and “they” to refer to the MFC, because a true supporter would say”us” and “we”. So I must have misread this, right?

No an adult supporter would be mature enough to know that we support them.

You're pretty pathetic if you you think you represent the team .

Do you wear a jumper with your favourite players number on the back as well?

I stopped doing that when Bluey Adams retired.

[IRW 1,388]

8 hours ago, Demonstone said:

He also seems to have forgotten that 90 point win against "spuds" only last week.

Exactly my point North are spuds. Tiges was a good game to watch even if they had 9 out through injury and have only won 2 games.

Where are Swans on the ladder?

Essendon up and coming ..pants them ,Lions likewise 

How do you think they will go against Cats  Pies  ,Port ,Saints and Adelaide on current form? 

 

Theres nothing wrong with the list but they don't play like their reputation .

Edited May 7, 2023 by IRW

[drysdale demon 4,837]

9 hours ago, IRW said:

Can't see them beating the top sides anyway given the way they are currently playing against  spuds

You wouldn't have any idea.

[IRW 1,388]

Just now, drysdale demon said:

You wouldn't have any idea.

I didn't realise  that you know me 

[Queanbeyan Demon 6,958]

I've calculated that if we win our next 18, we win the flag. Just say'in.

[Neil Crompton 5,780]

14 hours ago, IRW said:

No an adult supporter would be mature enough to know that we support them.

You're pretty pathetic if you you think you represent the team .

Do you wear a jumper with your favourite players number on the back as well?

I stopped doing that when Bluey Adams retired.

Thanks for your insight. I’m just happy I didn’t misread your statement after all.

And just for your information, I don’t think I represent our team - but our team sure does represent me. 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

On 5/6/2023 at 9:35 PM, leave it to deever said:

Agreed but I don't think it's going to be easy. The blues look less of a threat and we play them twice. North and hawks too. At stretch id say we get 15 or 16. But I reckon 14 and % is top 4 the way the season is. 

IM(humble)O there is absolutely no way that 14 and % will get us into the top 4. In recent seasons it has taken 15 wins and a good percentage (16 and poor percentage for Collingwood last year) and there's an extra game in 2023.

On 5/7/2023 at 6:57 AM, DEE fence said:

I think the thread should be a bit more optimistic, 'How many wins for top 4 or 2?', we are almost unbackable to be in the 8.

So anyway, 17 for 4, 18 for top 2.

Well it doesn't really matter what the thread says because posters have basically assumed we will be top 8 and changed the disussion to top 4/2 😀. I think 16 and a good percentage for top 4 and top 2 very hard to predict because it only takes a couple of sides to get on a roll. I'd say 19 or a number of sides on 18 with the highest percentage (naturally) getting through.

On 5/7/2023 at 7:33 AM, JimmyGadson said:

A mile in front? 

We've lost to Essendon and were smashed by Brisbane up until the power went out. Our form has been pretty inconsistent from game to game and we were extremely lucky to win today in the end given 

Collingwood and Brisbane would easily account for us if we played them right now and our ladder position is not reflective of our form but rather our draw. 

Beat Carlton and Collingwood in a few weeks and I'll believe more. 

It's a long way to go cobba and I think your Melbourne glasses need to be taken off.. 

 

I agree our ladder position is not truly reflective of our form but I also think it hasn't been a case of consistently poor opposition. Obviously the West Coast & North wins should be dismissed, but Gold Coast on the form they displayed on the weekend will be difficult for anyone to beat (especially at home) and we have already played Brisbane away. Interstate travel to Perth and Queensland is history and we only have to travel to Adelaide once (Port away in a fortnight, we play Adelaide at the MCG).

On 5/7/2023 at 9:39 AM, Lucifers Hero said:

Had a quick look at the draw for other top 8 contenders,  Teams each plays twice:

• Adelaide: Brisbane, Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Port Adelaide, West Coast
• Carlton: Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Melbourne, St Kilda, West Coast
• Essendon: Collingwood, Geelong, GWS, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, West Coast
• Port Adelaide: Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Richmond, Western Bulldogs
• St Kilda: Brisbane, Carlton, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Richmond
• Sydney: Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS, Melbourne, Richmond
• Western Bulldogs: Fremantle, Geelong, Hawthorn, GWS, Port Adelaide, Richmond

Similar to Geelong, Brisbane and Collingwood, those teams will have more 8-point games than Dees (and Saints) and their potential for big % boosts won't be as plentiful.

Short of major injuries or some other disaster I can't see us not making the top 4. 

I'm ok with top 4 especially as the other teams are likely to be Vic teams so our finals will be at the G - as long as we don't get an Away game vs Brisbane.

Thanks for the great analysis. Maybe it's time to start deathriding Brisbane as a corollary to Fremantle.

[WheeloRatings 1,164]

For what they're worth, my simulations show the following, based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the AFL season.

Probability of Top 8

12 wins: 23%
12.5 wins: 44%
13 wins: 70%
13.5 wins: 88%
14 wins: 97%

Probability of Top 4

15 wins: 27%
15.5 wins: 50%
16 wins: 73%
16.5 wins: 90%
17 wins: 97%

 

[layzie 34,376]

17 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

For what they're worth, my simulations show the following, based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the AFL season.

Probability of Top 8

12 wins: 23%
12.5 wins: 44%
13 wins: 70%
13.5 wins: 88%
14 wins: 97%

Probability of Top 4

15 wins: 27%
15.5 wins: 50%
16 wins: 73%
16.5 wins: 90%
17 wins: 97%

 

WOR you've done it again!