PREGAME: Rd 01 vs Western Bulldogs

[Ouch! 2,263]

2 hours ago, DubDee said:

have you seen Lobb play? offers zero at ground level either through athleticism or lack of effort

But I'm sure Hunter would know about Lobb being at the.... oh yeah right. Hunter would have only seen one season of Darcy. So really he'd be commenting about Ugle-Hagan and Naughton. Which I guess is fair enough. But all 4 are not nimble at ground level. 

[Ouch! 2,263]

53 minutes ago, binman said:

It seems as if you are using the term  role players as pejorative, as in 'he is just role player'. Peripheral. 

But to be honest it suggests to me, like many dees fans, you don't understand Nibbler's role or fully appreciate his importance to our team.

All players at the demons have a specific role.

Nibbler is a critical piece of the puzzle in terms of our game plan and how we play. 

A few years back fans were slow to pick up the importance of the wing position in footy from a game plan and structural perspective. Or understand that it was a distinct role.

Now people get it - and understand it takes a particular skill set - and mind set - to be a top winger. We have drafted in hunter specifically because he can play that role. Every dees fan can conceptualise what the hunter's role will look like.

Like the wing position, nibbler plays a critical, defined role that is more than the sum of its parts. 

But unlike the wing role, nibbler's specific role is really hard to understand just from watching the game.

It seems to me  players assigned specific roles, like spargo and nibbler, are often unfairly maligned.

And I think one reason is because their role is often not understood, and what they do is often hard to measure - particularly when the old 'how many times did he touch the pill', or other old school stat metrics are applied.

Back in the 80s, 90s and early 2000s, a tagger was probably the only regular designated role player. The tagger was was oft derided, and never a star but it was easy for fans to work out, one, what their role was and two did they perform it well. If their star opponent had fewer possessions and less impact than usual, then job done.

It is much harder to assess modern role player's performances. For example by what criteria do fans assess nibblers performance week in, week out.

For example, we wouldn't know that a kpi for nibbler is how often he enables tracc to push forward and take up an aggressive, offensive post clearance position (which is a BIG  part of our strategy to generate scoring chains) if it didn't come up in an interview tracc did last year.

I completely reject the notion that Nibbler's result in the the bluey was somehow a function of durability, or that it because the coaches 'love' him. I think that is disrespectful to nibbler. And to coaches too for that matter.

The result is an indication that he played the role he was assigned to a very high level.

Perhaps the key asset a gun role player needs, has always needed, is unwavering discipline. Discipline to not diverge from the assigned role and plan. No chasing possessions, or scoring opportunities to appease the critics.

In nibbler's case discipline to also run himself into the ground - every single week. 

On that point, it is worth noting nibbler has been playing much the same role for at least three full seasons now. And has barely been out of ones on that time.

It's a bloody hard role -  how long would it take, say Chandler, to learn how to play it to anywhere near nibbler's level?

If a player doesn't have the same, or greater, endurance as nibbler, he can't play the role. Period.

Above all, it's nibblers incredible endurance - and as I noted, discipline to push himself to his limits all game, every game - that, one enables him to play his critical role, and two do it to the level he does.

The key challenge for any player that  was to come in for nibbler is that they have to be elite level endurance athletes, and runners (ie not a power athlete).

By his third season of AFL nibbler already ran further per game than any other player in the team. By some margin. He was only 21 that year (2017).

Super fit and athletic then - he has only got fitter and a better runner since  The only comparable athletes in the team in terms of running ability and aerobic capacity is langdon, and perhaps now Grundy and hunter (though Oliver looks like he is an amazing shape - and his physique looks more like 800 metres runner than it had previously). 

Howes looks a potential great athlete - he has the right physique. But I suspect he has a fair bit of work to do  to build his tank to get to even nibblers 2017 level.

I thought Rosman might be a show, with his elite running background (though probably too big)

Jordon is the other one, he could get fit enough, but he isn't quick enough and will never cover the ground as fast as nibbler (which is key for his role).

Hey Binman, I think that would be a record for the number of times nibbler is typed in a post :D 17 by my count.  
Regardless of the role, he needs to convert the goal chances. I get his value, however that should be his floor, his ceiling goes up when he puts scoreboard pressure on. He gets shots on goal, he and Trac have to convert.

[demosaw 1,025]

Tigers were horrid. Caro will be happy as Tigers top 2 but only until Saturday.

[titan_uranus 25,020]

3 hours ago, whatwhat say what said:

interesting that it's hamstring not calf for may

not great, bob!

The club and Richardson say it's a calf, pretty sure the media report that it's a hammy is a mistake.

2 hours ago, fr_ap said:

Correct. This notion that they're lumbering oafs is ridiculous. In fact, that more accurately describes gawn or Grundy when resting forward 

Lobb's awful at ground level. Naughton's OK (not a lumbering oaf but not amazing). Ugle-Hagan's better but traditionally hasn't had great fourth quarter fitness (you'd expect that to have improved over the pre-season though). Darcy's 208cm and is unlikely to be amazing at ground level. He won't be any better than Gawn.

It's not exactly ridiculous to argue they are going to be weaker at ground level than they will be in the air. They will also be slower on the spread.

2 hours ago, dees189227 said:

Wasn't it lobb that tore us apart last year on the G?

Yes. In the air. He took 9 marks, 3 of which were inside 50.

[titan_uranus 25,020]

On team selection, I'm surprised Jordon has fallen behind both Laurie and Chandler, but many have bemoaned our lack of depth/variation to our side, so it's not surprising we're trying something new with that position.

It's disappointing in some respect that the FD think Tomlinson, off the back of a poor pre-season form-wise, is a better option than Turner, but whichever of them got the spot we were always going to look thin without May.

Reality is with May, Viney, Fritsch and Salem missing, and our opponent being a top 4 contender and missing just Weightman (Gardiner too but I do not rate him at all), we should not be favourites. I'm firmly of the view that a win on Saturday will be a massive achievement and should not be expected at all.

[layzie 33,808]

5 minutes ago, demosaw said:

Tigers were horrid. Caro will be happy as Tigers top 2 but only until Saturday.

If this is the best they have to offer in 2023 I'd be very disappointed after all these flogger wavers went crazy in pre season. 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

On 3/15/2023 at 7:30 PM, dazzledavey36 said:

Tommo got absolutely torn apart by a kid against St Kilda who was only signed a week prior to the SSP.

He's cooked and should not be playing unless our backline is in complete crisis in which this instance, it isn't.

You should never write any player off but having watched the match against StKilda in this instance i have to agree.  He was towelled by a junior and looked gawnsky for mine.

Almost impossible to replace May like for like but Disco should've got the call up.  Petty takes the No.1 with Disco taking over the Petty role.  Leaves Rick to play his usual intercept & mop up.

[binman 42,973]

10 minutes ago, Ouch! said:

Hey Binman, I think that would be a record for the number of times nibbler is typed in a post :D 17 by my count.  
Regardless of the role, he needs to convert the goal chances. I get his value, however that should be his floor, his ceiling goes up when he puts scoreboard pressure on. He gets shots on goal, he and Trac have to convert.

Agree that he can go to another level if kicks more goals. Great signs on that front in the praccy matches. Hit some beautiful kicks too

But goals are not his kpi

Again it is important to look past the old school stats.

I'm pretty sure nibbler was top 5 in score involvements last season and was probably top 3 in both score involvements and goal assists across the 2 praccy matchs

We score a lot of our goals from the back half on transition. Nibbler is involved in a huge percentage of those scoring chains

That's to say HE DOES create scoreboard pressure. Any goals he might kick are a bonus.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

4 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

On team selection, I'm surprised Jordon has fallen behind both Laurie and Chandler, but many have bemoaned our lack of depth/variation to our side, so it's not surprising we're trying something new with that position.

It's disappointing in some respect that the FD think Tomlinson, off the back of a poor pre-season form-wise, is a better option than Turner, but whichever of them got the spot we were always going to look thin without May.

Reality is with May, Viney, Fritsch and Salem missing, and our opponent being a top 4 contender and missing just Weightman (Gardiner too but I do not rate him at all), we should not be favourites. I'm firmly of the view that a win on Saturday will be a massive achievement and should not be expected at all.

Def should be under dogs (no pun intended).  A win would be a nice bonus.  Chandler & Disco should have gotten the nod ahead of Bill & Tomo.

Potentially lost this at the selection table.  Yes i realise the FD see and know alot more but going on form in the two warm ups very surprising ins imv.

[Travy14 1,917]

1 hour ago, dazzledavey36 said:

He also had Ben Brown kick 6 on him in one of the scratchies. This was confirmed by @picket fence.

Even without May I was still confident. Now seeing Tomlinson playing I can't say I'm confident at all now.

Pretty sure even in that match report some of those goals were kicked on May and Petty.

Thommo is the next best for the 1v1 type backman.  I really like Turner but that's not his game as much.

[titan_uranus 25,020]

1 minute ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Def should be under dogs (no pun intended).  A win would be a nice bonus.  Chandler & Disco should have gotten the nod ahead of Bill & Tomo.

Potentially lost this at the selection table.  Yes i realise the FD see and know alot more but going on form in the two warm ups very surprising ins imv.

Chandler's playing. Do you mean Jordon?

[dazzledavey36 54,946]

6 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

You should never write any player off but having watched the match against StKilda in this instance i have to agree.  He was towelled by a junior and looked gawnsky for mine.

Almost impossible to replace May like for like but Disco should've got the call up.  Petty takes the No.1 with Disco taking over the Petty role.  Leaves Rick to play his usual intercept & mop up.

Agree.

This selection really has perplexed a lot on here. If there was a time to play Turner then this would have been perfect opportunity. If not now then when?

Club needs to start thinking of life after May and how that may look in the future. Instead we bring in a 30 old with wonky knee off the back of being torn to shreds by a kid who was a part time VFL only a week prior to the St Kilda game.

I think he would have handled Darcy well especially as he's got genuine grunt and leap to go with him in the air.

 

[dl4e 5,851]

Our midfielders are going to have to win comfortably. They will have to stop the forward delivery of the dogs to a shamble for us to win. Bontimpelli. McCrea and libba are very good players. English is a good ruckman. 2nd best behind max. Don't care what people think but the selection of Tomlinson and Laurie is a blunder. Oh and I had better not see Harmes on the back flank. Hibberd should be sub.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

6 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Chandler's playing. Do you mean Jordon?

Sorry meant JVR not Chandler.  Had a few snorts watching that boring opening round.

Jvr gives us the flexibility of potentially pushing Macca down back for a stint if things start getting a bit ugly and/or as a fill in if (Lucifer forbid) one of Lever/Tomo or Petty go down.

[fr_ap 2,488]

9 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Agree.

This selection really has perplexed a lot on here. If there was a time to play Turner then this would have been perfect opportunity. If not now then when?

Club needs to start thinking of life after May and how that may look in the future. Instead we bring in a 30 old with wonky knee off the back of being torn to shreds by a kid who was a part time VFL only a week prior to the St Kilda game.

I think he would have handled Darcy well especially as he's got genuine grunt and leap to go with him in the air.

 

Couldn't agree more.

[Deebauched 1,220]

Tomlinson Mc Vee and Harmes half our defence.With Bowey incl is it tall enough?

I hope im wrong but this team looks vulnerable. Good news is Melbourne are obviously not going to play underdone players this season unlike 2022. 

 

 

 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

24 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

On team selection, I'm surprised Jordon has fallen behind both Laurie and Chandler, but many have bemoaned our lack of depth/variation to our side, so it's not surprising we're trying something new with that position.

It's disappointing in some respect that the FD think Tomlinson, off the back of a poor pre-season form-wise, is a better option than Turner, but whichever of them got the spot we were always going to look thin without May.

Reality is with May, Viney, Fritsch and Salem missing, and our opponent being a top 4 contender and missing just Weightman (Gardiner too but I do not rate him at all), we should not be favourites. I'm firmly of the view that a win on Saturday will be a massive achievement and should not be expected at all.

Agre with the last two paras.

Isn't Jordan competing more with Hunter for the non-lingers wing posi?

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

1 hour ago, sisso said:

We need early 2021 Tommo ….remember that game Hawkins smashes Maysie in the face and put him out of action, from memory we rolled Tommo onto him he did a great job and we won comfortably

Hawkins is a better match up for Tommo over Darcy or Jamarrah. 

And that is what I'm worried about. I would have much preferred the Turner match up. He is taller, has a longer reach and is more agile and athletic. 

If our midfield pressure is not to standard, I fear for Tommo. This game will be decided by the midfield clearly. 

I just would have thought Turner over Tommo would have been the way to go given the type of talls that the dogs have. 

My two p. 

Edited March 16, 2023 by JimmyGadson

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

10 minutes ago, dl4e said:

Our midfielders are going to have to win comfortably. They will have to stop the forward delivery of the dogs to a shamble for us to win. Bontimpelli. McCrea and libba are very good players. English is a good ruckman. 2nd best behind max. Don't care what people think but the selection of Tomlinson and Laurie is a blunder. Oh and I had better not see Harmes on the back flank. Hibberd should be sub.

Playing all of Chandler, Harmes & Bill seems like too many pees from the same pod for mine.

Harmes & Chandler is plenty.  As you say, bring Hibb in as the sub to cover the Bowey role if/when needed?

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

5 minutes ago, JimmyGadson said:

Hawkins is a better match up for Tommo over Darcy or Jamarrah. 

And that is what I'm worried about. I would have much preferred the Turner match up. He is taller, has a longer reach and is more agile and athletic. 

If our midfield pressure is not to standard, I fear for Tommo. This game will be decided by the midfield clearly. 

I just would have thought Turner of Tommo would have been the way to go given the type of talls that the dogs have. 

Yes horses for courses.  Their talls are very mobile and rangey.

[binman 42,973]

41 minutes ago, JimmyGadson said:

Hawkins is a better match up for Tommo over Darcy or Jamarrah. 

And that is what I'm worried about. I would have much preferred the Turner match up. He is taller, has a longer reach and is more agile and athletic. 

If our midfield pressure is not to standard, I fear for Tommo. This game will be decided by the midfield clearly. 

I just would have thought Turner of Tommo would have been the way to go given the type of talls that the dogs have. 

I wonder if tom's experience was a factor. Big game. Important game.

With mcvee debuting, adding a second gamer to the mix would make the back six pretty inexperienced. 

[Mincho Mania 530]

Tmac as swingman off the bench ads a lot of flexibility.

Think our mids bat a little deeper with the addition of Kozzie and Rivers.

Loved McVee's pre season but if Hibbo is cherry ripe would prefer him in.

Backing Tommo, 1st year back from a knee reco is tough. Ross Lyon press conference mentioned Caminiti touched up Weitering in a pre season match so maybe Tommo underestimated a young bloke.

Will be in the city end pocket with my daughter and grand daughter from Perth🙂

Go Dees

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

11 minutes ago, binman said:

I wonder if tom's experience was a factor. Big game. Important game.

With mcvee debuting, adding a second gamer to the mix would make the back six pretty inexperienced. 

The only reason that he was picked ahead of Turner surely! 

Good luck to him anyway. 

Mids and Gawn need to take the load for this one. 

Go dee's. 

[WERRIDEE 5,479]

How they may line up

Melbourne

B: Lever, Tomlinson, Rivers

HB: Brayshaw, Petty, Bowey

C: Hunter, Oliver, Langdon

HF: Petracca, McDonald, Neal-Bullen

F: Grundy, Brown, Spargo

FOLL: Gawn, Harmes, Pickett

IC: McVee, Laurie, Sparrow, Chandler

SUB: Jordon

 

Bulldogs

B: Bruce, Jones, Daniel

HB: Dale, Keath, Richards

C: B.Smith, Macrae, Treloar

HF: Scott, Naughton, Johannisen   

F: Ugle-Hagan, Lobb, Darcy

FOLL: English, Bontempelli, Liberatore

IC: Duryea, Williams, Hannan, Baker

SUB: Khamis

 

Key Match Ups

Lever V Ugle-Hagan

I think Lever will get the job on Ugle-Hagan I think that will be a good match up. Lever didn't play against the dogs last time and Ugle-Hagan kicked 5.

Tomlinson V Lobb

I think this will be Tomlinson's best match up a lumbering ruckman. Lobb will tear us apart or do nothing no in between.

Petty V Naughton

Petty is no May but I think he could do the job on him. If he can keep him to a couple of goals he's done his job.

Rivers V Darcy

This is a mismatch Darcy is an up and coming star but Rivers can play above his height and beat him at ground level. The club has chosen system over structure down back.

Spargo V Daniel

Spargo has to shut him down has been damaging in the past

McDonald V Keath

McDonald really has to be on his game. Keath has iffy form and could be a weak link.

Brown has to lift after an ordinary game against Richmond. An inform Jones could probably keep him in check but a brain fading Jones could give Brown some opportunites. McDonald has a good record on Jones.

Bruce V Grundy\Gawn

Bruce like Tomlinson is a shock selection I expect like Tomlinson to take the resting ruck. Hopefully both Gawn and Grundy can be too nimble for him.

Harmes V Bontempelli

It doesn't happen much these days but I hope Harmes gets a tagging job on the Bont that's when Harmes plays his best football.

 

Prediction

The Dees by 12 points I had the Dees by 30 until May went out of the side.  

 

 

[Stevienic23 1,183]

Not sure if already mentioned but having lost Salem and now May our we've taken a hit with our kicking in from full back. Bowey is reliable enough but he isn't as long and aggressive as May.