Jump to content


Recommended Posts

Posted
7 minutes ago, binman said:

Banned from or banned for?

I mean, we do love to punish teams.

But we spent a lot of time letting teams punish us, so… there’s something for everyone. 🥳

Posted (edited)

Can't wait to see what Taylor and Lamb do with our draft hand, no matter what it is come end of season. 

And regardless of how we go this year, the injection of highly talented youngsters into our mix next year will bring rejuvenation and a new wave of excitement going into 2024. 

Especially if we nab an excitement machine or two. 

Two top 10 picks should be our aim and one more inside 20.

That's achievable for sure. 

Watson, Duursma and a key forward is my wish. 

Edited by JimmyGadson
  • Like 10
  • Love 1
Posted
10 minutes ago, adonski said:

20230618_210526.jpg

Thanks @adonski, @WheeloRatings, can you please explain why our defensive rating is where it is, when 2 other teams (Collingwood and St Kilda) have conceded fewer points/same games. What else goes into the mix?

Posted

Freo won’t make finals from here. need to go at least 7-3 and have a tough next 5

  • Like 1
Posted (edited)

A loss against Essendon officially ends their season...and I'd be expecting Carlton and possibly the Swans to leapfrog them in the coming weeks if that's the case 

Edited by adonski
  • Like 2

Posted
On 6/17/2023 at 7:12 PM, rjay said:

Then the way Hawthorn have been going is a bottom 3 position for Freo too much to ask for?

Unfortunately yes, thanks to Dillon and his cronies

Posted
On 6/18/2023 at 11:37 AM, BDA said:

In terms of picks there isn’t that much difference between 5-10 which is the range we’ll end up with. JT will do his thing and find a quality player for us.

 

On 6/18/2023 at 11:56 AM, 58er said:

We are categorically better than a 5 - 10 position and are up to our eyeballs in this flag race. 

Comprehension issue here '58er'...

Maybe an apology?

  • Thanks 1
Posted
38 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Not that I'm complaining but why are we a 10% better chance of winning the flag over the 11-2 Collingwood? 

Because had we kicked straight we would of spanked them by 7 goals. On top of that we're better defensively, we're better at contest, we're better at scoring from turnover, heck, we're just plain better.

  • Like 3
  • Love 2
  • Haha 1
Posted
On 6/18/2023 at 9:19 PM, Engorged Onion said:

Thanks @adonski, @WheeloRatings, can you please explain why our defensive rating is where it is, when 2 other teams (Collingwood and St Kilda) have conceded fewer points/same games. What else goes into the mix?

The 'Current Rating' is weighted toward more recent results, so a team could be rated higher if they in better form. If you look at the following page of my site, you will see a 'Current Rating' section and an 'Overall Season Rating' section in the table.

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_ratings.html

The overall season rating treats all matches equally. Melbourne is rated second overall, behind Collingwood, on the overall season defensive rating but first on the current defensive rating. St Kilda drops from third overall defensively to fourth currently as their form was better at the start of the season. Teams also inherit a proportion of their rating from the end of the prior season, so early season ratings will be impacted by the prior year. This wouldn't have much of an effect this far into the season.

Secondly, the ratings are not based on actual team scores. They are based on a weighted average of the team scores and what teams would have scored had they kicked at an expected accuracy, and weighted more towards the latter. So when Melbourne kick 8.18, their score is adjusted (increased) to reflect the below average accuracy and to better reflect their dominance. As background information, the model is optimised for the prediction of matches. Specifically, it is optimised to minimise the mean absolute error in predicted margins. Applying a weighted average in this manner performs better than using actual team scores or just using scoring shots.

Lastly, the ratings also take into account estimated opponent strength and estimated venue advantage/disadvantage.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 6
  • Love 2

Posted
48 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

The 'Current Rating' is weighted toward more recent results, so a team could be rated higher if they in better form. If you look at the following page of my site, you will see a 'Current Rating' section and an 'Overall Season Rating' section in the table.

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_ratings.html

The overall season rating treats all matches equally. Melbourne is rated second overall, behind Collingwood, on the overall season defensive rating but first on the current defensive rating. St Kilda drops from third overall defensively to fourth currently as their form was better at the start of the season. Teams also inherit a proportion of their rating from the end of the prior season, so early season ratings will be impacted by the prior year. This wouldn't have much of an effect this far into the season.

Secondly, the ratings are not based on actual team scores. They are based on a weighted average of the team scores and what teams would have scored had they kicked at an expected accuracy, and weighted more towards the latter. So when Melbourne kick 8.18, their score is adjusted (increased) to reflect the below average accuracy and to better reflect their dominance. As background information, the model is optimised for the prediction of matches. Specifically, it is optimised to minimise the mean absolute error in predicted margins. Applying a weighted average in this manner performs better than using actual team scores or just using scoring shots.

Lastly, the ratings also take into account estimated opponent strength and estimated venue advantage/disadvantage.

Really appreciate the clear and concise summary. Thank you.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Posted
On 6/18/2023 at 11:37 AM, BDA said:

We do like to wallow.

it might help people overcome the close/unlucky losses if they also acknowledged the close/lucky wins. The suns should have beaten us so for me the freo game balanced the ledger.

Port and pies have been more consistent so far this season. They deserve to be top 2. We’re leading the chasing pack which, on balance is exactly where we deserve to be.

In terms of picks there isn’t that much difference between 5-10 which is the range we’ll end up with. JT will do his thing and find a quality player for us.

 

On 6/18/2023 at 11:56 AM, 58er said:

What a mundane summary of our season do far. 

Suns were never in front and we had 5 more scoring shots. Plus the JVR fiasco stopped a good run at the start of the quarter which helped Suns get back in the game. 

In the Freo game yes they played better footy but we kicked the game away in front of goal.

Also I suppose you thought we were lucky on Monday?  Well Pies  and Power have been best to date but are they going to be able to  maintain the rage? 

Monday proved ( like in 2021) our footy often improves vs the top sides and now that May Lever Salo Fritta and Gawny have hit consistent form like in 2021 we are a much better defensive group and tighter as a unit all over the ground. 

We are categorically better than a 5 - 10 position and are up to our eyeballs in this flag race. 

 

 

On 6/18/2023 at 12:22 PM, 58er said:

I was simply providing a different opinion on your post reflecting on close finishes and predicting a 5 -10 finish as what we are worth. 

Completely different view with a half glass empty and yours not even half full. 

Cheers for now!

 

 

On 6/18/2023 at 12:38 PM, BDA said:

I didn't predict a 5-10 finish.

 

2 hours ago, 58er said:

What are you talking about rjay? 

'BDA' was predicting we would probably get a pick in the range of 5-10 based on where Freo will finish this season.

You misread his post as being we would finish between 5-10 on the ladder.

That's what I'm talking about.

  • Like 4
Posted
On 6/20/2023 at 12:11 PM, Stiff Arm said:

السلم-ladder.gif

That dude would have been seriously [censored] if the other guy didn't arrest his backward tumble!

Posted
4 minutes ago, gs77 said:

That dude would have been seriously [censored] if the other guy didn't arrest his backward tumble!

Like in Rush Hour!

  • Haha 1

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • Demonland Forums  

  • Match Previews, Reports & Articles  

    2024 Player Reviews: #15 Ed Langdon

    The Demon running machine came back with a vengeance after a leaner than usual year in 2023.  Date of Birth: 1 February 1996 Height: 182cm Games MFC 2024: 22 Career Total: 179 Goals MFC 2024: 9 Career Total: 76 Brownlow Medal Votes: 5 Melbourne Football Club: 5th Best & Fairest: 352 votes

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Melbourne Demons 6

    2024 Player Reviews: #24 Trent Rivers

    The premiership defender had his best year yet as he was given the opportunity to move into the midfield and made a good fist of it. Date of Birth: 30 July 2001 Games MFC 2024: 23 Career Total: 100 Goals MFC 2024: 2 Career Total:  9 Brownlow Medal Votes: 7 Melbourne Football Club: 6th Best & Fairest: 350 votes

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Melbourne Demons 2

    TRAINING: Monday 11th November 2024

    Veteran Demonland Trackwatchers Kev Martin, Slartibartfast & Demon Wheels were on hand at Gosch's Paddock to kick off the official first training session for the 1st to 4th year players with a few elder statesmen in attendance as well. KEV MARTIN'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS Beautiful morning. Joy all round, they look like they want to be there.  21 in the squad. Looks like the leadership group is TMac, Viney Chandler and Petty. They look like they have sli

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports 2

    2024 Player Reviews: #1 Steven May

    The years are rolling by but May continued to be rock solid in a key defensive position despite some injury concerns. He showed great resilience in coming back from a nasty rib injury and is expected to continue in that role for another couple of seasons. Date of Birth: 10 January 1992 Height: 193cm Games MFC 2024: 19 Career Total: 235 Goals MFC 2024: 1 Career Total: 24 Melbourne Football Club: 9th Best & Fairest: 316 votes

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Melbourne Demons

    2024 Player Reviews: #4 Judd McVee

    It was another strong season from McVee who spent most of his time mainly at half back but he also looked at home on a few occasions when he was moved into the midfield. There could be more of that in 2025. Date of Birth: 7 August 2003 Height: 185cm Games MFC 2024: 23 Career Total: 48 Goals MFC 2024: 1 Career Total: 1 Brownlow Medal Votes: 1 Melbourne Football Club: 7th Best & Fairest: 347 votes

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Melbourne Demons 5

    2024 Player Reviews: #31 Bayley Fritsch

    Once again the club’s top goal scorer but he had a few uncharacteristic flat spots during the season and the club will be looking for much better from him in 2025. Date of Birth: 6 December 1996 Height: 188cm Games MFC 2024: 23 Career Total: 149 Goals MFC 2024: 41 Career Total: 252 Brownlow Medal Votes: 4

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Melbourne Demons 9

    2024 Player Reviews: #18 Jake Melksham

    After sustaining a torn ACL in the final match of the 2023 season Jake added a bit to the attack late in the 2024 season upon his return. He has re-signed on to the Demons for 1 more season in 2025. Date of Birth: 12 August 1991 Height: 186cm Games MFC 2024: 8 Career Total: 229 Goals MFC 2024: 8 Career Total: 188

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Melbourne Demons 7

    2024 Player Reviews: #3 Christian Salem

    The luckless Salem suffered a hamstring injury against the Lions early in the season and, after missing a number of games, he was never at his best. He was also inconvenienced by minor niggles later in the season. This was a blow for the club that sorely needed him to fill gaps in the midfield at times as well as to do his best work in defence. Date of Birth: 15 July 1995 Height: 184cm Games MFC 2024: 17 Career Total: 176 Goals MFC 2024: 1 Career Total: 26 Brownlow Meda

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Melbourne Demons 8

    2024 Player Reviews: #39 Koltyn Tholstrop

    The first round draft pick at #13 from twelve months ago the strongly built medium forward has had an impressive introduction to AFL football and is expected to spend more midfield moments as his career progresses. Date of Birth: 25 July 2005 Height: 186cm Games MFC 2024: 10 Career Total: 10 Goals MFC 2024: 5 Career Total: 5 Games CDFC 2024: 7 Goals CDFC 2024: 4

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Melbourne Demons 9
  • Tell a friend

    Love Demonland? Tell a friend!

×
×
  • Create New...