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Death Riding Fremantle 2023 - Feathered Cap Edition

adonski
adonski
in Melbourne Demons

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7 minutes ago, binman said:

Banned from or banned for?

I mean, we do love to punish teams.

But we spent a lot of time letting teams punish us, so… there’s something for everyone. 🥳

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    Can't wait to see what Taylor and Lamb do with our draft hand, no matter what it is come end of season. 

    And regardless of how we go this year, the injection of highly talented youngsters into our mix next year will bring rejuvenation and a new wave of excitement going into 2024. 

    Especially if we nab an excitement machine or two. 

    Two top 10 picks should be our aim and one more inside 20.

    That's achievable for sure. 

    Watson, Duursma and a key forward is my wish. 

    Edited by JimmyGadson

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    10 minutes ago, adonski said:

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    Thanks @adonski, @WheeloRatings, can you please explain why our defensive rating is where it is, when 2 other teams (Collingwood and St Kilda) have conceded fewer points/same games. What else goes into the mix?

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    Freo won’t make finals from here. need to go at least 7-3 and have a tough next 5

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    A loss against Essendon officially ends their season...and I'd be expecting Carlton and possibly the Swans to leapfrog them in the coming weeks if that's the case 

    Edited by adonski

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    At least next week is a bit of a knockout scenario with one of Freo and Essendon dropping points. 

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    On 6/17/2023 at 7:12 PM, rjay said:

    Then the way Hawthorn have been going is a bottom 3 position for Freo too much to ask for?

    Unfortunately yes, thanks to Dillon and his cronies

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    On 6/18/2023 at 11:37 AM, BDA said:

    In terms of picks there isn’t that much difference between 5-10 which is the range we’ll end up with. JT will do his thing and find a quality player for us.

     

    On 6/18/2023 at 11:56 AM, 58er said:

    We are categorically better than a 5 - 10 position and are up to our eyeballs in this flag race. 

    Comprehension issue here '58er'...

    Maybe an apology?

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    38 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

    Not that I'm complaining but why are we a 10% better chance of winning the flag over the 11-2 Collingwood? 

    Because had we kicked straight we would of spanked them by 7 goals. On top of that we're better defensively, we're better at contest, we're better at scoring from turnover, heck, we're just plain better.

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    On 6/18/2023 at 9:19 PM, Engorged Onion said:

    Thanks @adonski, @WheeloRatings, can you please explain why our defensive rating is where it is, when 2 other teams (Collingwood and St Kilda) have conceded fewer points/same games. What else goes into the mix?

    The 'Current Rating' is weighted toward more recent results, so a team could be rated higher if they in better form. If you look at the following page of my site, you will see a 'Current Rating' section and an 'Overall Season Rating' section in the table.

    https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_ratings.html

    The overall season rating treats all matches equally. Melbourne is rated second overall, behind Collingwood, on the overall season defensive rating but first on the current defensive rating. St Kilda drops from third overall defensively to fourth currently as their form was better at the start of the season. Teams also inherit a proportion of their rating from the end of the prior season, so early season ratings will be impacted by the prior year. This wouldn't have much of an effect this far into the season.

    Secondly, the ratings are not based on actual team scores. They are based on a weighted average of the team scores and what teams would have scored had they kicked at an expected accuracy, and weighted more towards the latter. So when Melbourne kick 8.18, their score is adjusted (increased) to reflect the below average accuracy and to better reflect their dominance. As background information, the model is optimised for the prediction of matches. Specifically, it is optimised to minimise the mean absolute error in predicted margins. Applying a weighted average in this manner performs better than using actual team scores or just using scoring shots.

    Lastly, the ratings also take into account estimated opponent strength and estimated venue advantage/disadvantage.

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    3 hours ago, Stiff Arm said:

    السلم-ladder.gif

    This is what happens when you play your zone too high up the ground.. 

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    48 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

    The 'Current Rating' is weighted toward more recent results, so a team could be rated higher if they in better form. If you look at the following page of my site, you will see a 'Current Rating' section and an 'Overall Season Rating' section in the table.

    https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_ratings.html

    The overall season rating treats all matches equally. Melbourne is rated second overall, behind Collingwood, on the overall season defensive rating but first on the current defensive rating. St Kilda drops from third overall defensively to fourth currently as their form was better at the start of the season. Teams also inherit a proportion of their rating from the end of the prior season, so early season ratings will be impacted by the prior year. This wouldn't have much of an effect this far into the season.

    Secondly, the ratings are not based on actual team scores. They are based on a weighted average of the team scores and what teams would have scored had they kicked at an expected accuracy, and weighted more towards the latter. So when Melbourne kick 8.18, their score is adjusted (increased) to reflect the below average accuracy and to better reflect their dominance. As background information, the model is optimised for the prediction of matches. Specifically, it is optimised to minimise the mean absolute error in predicted margins. Applying a weighted average in this manner performs better than using actual team scores or just using scoring shots.

    Lastly, the ratings also take into account estimated opponent strength and estimated venue advantage/disadvantage.

    Really appreciate the clear and concise summary. Thank you.

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    Maybe they should try and come up with another beer, the Lobster tears was a massive success.

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    20 hours ago, rjay said:

     

    Comprehension issue here '58er'...

    Maybe an apology?

    What are you talking about rjay? 

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    On 6/18/2023 at 11:37 AM, BDA said:

    We do like to wallow.

    it might help people overcome the close/unlucky losses if they also acknowledged the close/lucky wins. The suns should have beaten us so for me the freo game balanced the ledger.

    Port and pies have been more consistent so far this season. They deserve to be top 2. We’re leading the chasing pack which, on balance is exactly where we deserve to be.

    In terms of picks there isn’t that much difference between 5-10 which is the range we’ll end up with. JT will do his thing and find a quality player for us.

     

    On 6/18/2023 at 11:56 AM, 58er said:

    What a mundane summary of our season do far. 

    Suns were never in front and we had 5 more scoring shots. Plus the JVR fiasco stopped a good run at the start of the quarter which helped Suns get back in the game. 

    In the Freo game yes they played better footy but we kicked the game away in front of goal.

    Also I suppose you thought we were lucky on Monday?  Well Pies  and Power have been best to date but are they going to be able to  maintain the rage? 

    Monday proved ( like in 2021) our footy often improves vs the top sides and now that May Lever Salo Fritta and Gawny have hit consistent form like in 2021 we are a much better defensive group and tighter as a unit all over the ground. 

    We are categorically better than a 5 - 10 position and are up to our eyeballs in this flag race. 

     

     

    On 6/18/2023 at 12:22 PM, 58er said:

    I was simply providing a different opinion on your post reflecting on close finishes and predicting a 5 -10 finish as what we are worth. 

    Completely different view with a half glass empty and yours not even half full. 

    Cheers for now!

     

     

    On 6/18/2023 at 12:38 PM, BDA said:

    I didn't predict a 5-10 finish.

     

    2 hours ago, 58er said:

    What are you talking about rjay? 

    'BDA' was predicting we would probably get a pick in the range of 5-10 based on where Freo will finish this season.

    You misread his post as being we would finish between 5-10 on the ladder.

    That's what I'm talking about.

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    On 6/20/2023 at 12:11 PM, Stiff Arm said:

    السلم-ladder.gif

    That dude would have been seriously [censored] if the other guy didn't arrest his backward tumble!

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    4 minutes ago, gs77 said:

    That dude would have been seriously [censored] if the other guy didn't arrest his backward tumble!

    Like in Rush Hour!

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    Unpopular opinion here but I hope Fremantle win tonight.

    Essendon have a joke of a fixture in late July/August (Nth, Wc, Syd, GWS) and are a legitimate chance to take our spot in the top 4.

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