Jump to content

Death Riding Fremantle 2023 - Feathered Cap Edition

adonski
adonski
in Melbourne Demons

Featured Replies

7 minutes ago, binman said:

Banned from or banned for?

I mean, we do love to punish teams.

But we spent a lot of time letting teams punish us, so… there’s something for everyone. 🥳

  • Quote
    •  

    Can't wait to see what Taylor and Lamb do with our draft hand, no matter what it is come end of season. 

    And regardless of how we go this year, the injection of highly talented youngsters into our mix next year will bring rejuvenation and a new wave of excitement going into 2024. 

    Especially if we nab an excitement machine or two. 

    Two top 10 picks should be our aim and one more inside 20.

    That's achievable for sure. 

    Watson, Duursma and a key forward is my wish. 

    Edited by JimmyGadson

  • Quote
    • Like 10
    • Love 1
     
    10 minutes ago, adonski said:

    20230618_210526.jpg

    Thanks @adonski, @WheeloRatings, can you please explain why our defensive rating is where it is, when 2 other teams (Collingwood and St Kilda) have conceded fewer points/same games. What else goes into the mix?

  • Quote

    Freo won’t make finals from here. need to go at least 7-3 and have a tough next 5

  • Quote
    • Like 1
    • Author

    A loss against Essendon officially ends their season...and I'd be expecting Carlton and possibly the Swans to leapfrog them in the coming weeks if that's the case 

    Edited by adonski

  • Quote
    • Like 2

    At least next week is a bit of a knockout scenario with one of Freo and Essendon dropping points. 

  • Quote
    •  
    On 6/17/2023 at 7:12 PM, rjay said:

    Then the way Hawthorn have been going is a bottom 3 position for Freo too much to ask for?

    Unfortunately yes, thanks to Dillon and his cronies

  • Quote

    On 6/18/2023 at 11:37 AM, BDA said:

    In terms of picks there isn’t that much difference between 5-10 which is the range we’ll end up with. JT will do his thing and find a quality player for us.

     

    On 6/18/2023 at 11:56 AM, 58er said:

    We are categorically better than a 5 - 10 position and are up to our eyeballs in this flag race. 

    Comprehension issue here '58er'...

    Maybe an apology?

  • Quote
    • Thanks 1
    38 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

    Not that I'm complaining but why are we a 10% better chance of winning the flag over the 11-2 Collingwood? 

    Because had we kicked straight we would of spanked them by 7 goals. On top of that we're better defensively, we're better at contest, we're better at scoring from turnover, heck, we're just plain better.

  • Quote
    • Like 3
    • Love 2
    • Haha 1
    On 6/18/2023 at 9:19 PM, Engorged Onion said:

    Thanks @adonski, @WheeloRatings, can you please explain why our defensive rating is where it is, when 2 other teams (Collingwood and St Kilda) have conceded fewer points/same games. What else goes into the mix?

    The 'Current Rating' is weighted toward more recent results, so a team could be rated higher if they in better form. If you look at the following page of my site, you will see a 'Current Rating' section and an 'Overall Season Rating' section in the table.

    https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_ratings.html

    The overall season rating treats all matches equally. Melbourne is rated second overall, behind Collingwood, on the overall season defensive rating but first on the current defensive rating. St Kilda drops from third overall defensively to fourth currently as their form was better at the start of the season. Teams also inherit a proportion of their rating from the end of the prior season, so early season ratings will be impacted by the prior year. This wouldn't have much of an effect this far into the season.

    Secondly, the ratings are not based on actual team scores. They are based on a weighted average of the team scores and what teams would have scored had they kicked at an expected accuracy, and weighted more towards the latter. So when Melbourne kick 8.18, their score is adjusted (increased) to reflect the below average accuracy and to better reflect their dominance. As background information, the model is optimised for the prediction of matches. Specifically, it is optimised to minimise the mean absolute error in predicted margins. Applying a weighted average in this manner performs better than using actual team scores or just using scoring shots.

    Lastly, the ratings also take into account estimated opponent strength and estimated venue advantage/disadvantage.

  • Quote
    • Like 3
    • Thanks 6
    • Love 2

    3 hours ago, Stiff Arm said:

    السلم-ladder.gif

    This is what happens when you play your zone too high up the ground.. 

  • Quote
    48 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

    The 'Current Rating' is weighted toward more recent results, so a team could be rated higher if they in better form. If you look at the following page of my site, you will see a 'Current Rating' section and an 'Overall Season Rating' section in the table.

    https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_ratings.html

    The overall season rating treats all matches equally. Melbourne is rated second overall, behind Collingwood, on the overall season defensive rating but first on the current defensive rating. St Kilda drops from third overall defensively to fourth currently as their form was better at the start of the season. Teams also inherit a proportion of their rating from the end of the prior season, so early season ratings will be impacted by the prior year. This wouldn't have much of an effect this far into the season.

    Secondly, the ratings are not based on actual team scores. They are based on a weighted average of the team scores and what teams would have scored had they kicked at an expected accuracy, and weighted more towards the latter. So when Melbourne kick 8.18, their score is adjusted (increased) to reflect the below average accuracy and to better reflect their dominance. As background information, the model is optimised for the prediction of matches. Specifically, it is optimised to minimise the mean absolute error in predicted margins. Applying a weighted average in this manner performs better than using actual team scores or just using scoring shots.

    Lastly, the ratings also take into account estimated opponent strength and estimated venue advantage/disadvantage.

    Really appreciate the clear and concise summary. Thank you.

  • Quote
    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    Maybe they should try and come up with another beer, the Lobster tears was a massive success.

  • Quote
    20 hours ago, rjay said:

     

    Comprehension issue here '58er'...

    Maybe an apology?

    What are you talking about rjay? 

  • Quote

    On 6/18/2023 at 11:37 AM, BDA said:

    We do like to wallow.

    it might help people overcome the close/unlucky losses if they also acknowledged the close/lucky wins. The suns should have beaten us so for me the freo game balanced the ledger.

    Port and pies have been more consistent so far this season. They deserve to be top 2. We’re leading the chasing pack which, on balance is exactly where we deserve to be.

    In terms of picks there isn’t that much difference between 5-10 which is the range we’ll end up with. JT will do his thing and find a quality player for us.

     

    On 6/18/2023 at 11:56 AM, 58er said:

    What a mundane summary of our season do far. 

    Suns were never in front and we had 5 more scoring shots. Plus the JVR fiasco stopped a good run at the start of the quarter which helped Suns get back in the game. 

    In the Freo game yes they played better footy but we kicked the game away in front of goal.

    Also I suppose you thought we were lucky on Monday?  Well Pies  and Power have been best to date but are they going to be able to  maintain the rage? 

    Monday proved ( like in 2021) our footy often improves vs the top sides and now that May Lever Salo Fritta and Gawny have hit consistent form like in 2021 we are a much better defensive group and tighter as a unit all over the ground. 

    We are categorically better than a 5 - 10 position and are up to our eyeballs in this flag race. 

     

     

    On 6/18/2023 at 12:22 PM, 58er said:

    I was simply providing a different opinion on your post reflecting on close finishes and predicting a 5 -10 finish as what we are worth. 

    Completely different view with a half glass empty and yours not even half full. 

    Cheers for now!

     

     

    On 6/18/2023 at 12:38 PM, BDA said:

    I didn't predict a 5-10 finish.

     

    2 hours ago, 58er said:

    What are you talking about rjay? 

    'BDA' was predicting we would probably get a pick in the range of 5-10 based on where Freo will finish this season.

    You misread his post as being we would finish between 5-10 on the ladder.

    That's what I'm talking about.

  • Quote
    • Like 4
    On 6/20/2023 at 12:11 PM, Stiff Arm said:

    السلم-ladder.gif

    That dude would have been seriously [censored] if the other guy didn't arrest his backward tumble!

  • Quote
    4 minutes ago, gs77 said:

    That dude would have been seriously [censored] if the other guy didn't arrest his backward tumble!

    Like in Rush Hour!

  • Quote
    • Haha 1
     

    Unpopular opinion here but I hope Fremantle win tonight.

    Essendon have a joke of a fixture in late July/August (Nth, Wc, Syd, GWS) and are a legitimate chance to take our spot in the top 4.

  • Quote

    • Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

    Guest
    Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
    Reply to this topic...
    Go to topic listing

    Featured Content

    • GAMEDAY: Geelong

      It's Game Day, and reinforcements are finally arriving for the Demons—but will it be too little, too late? They're heading down the freeway to face a Cats side returning home to their fortress after two straight losses, desperate to reignite their own season. Can the Demons breathe new life into their campaign, or will it slip even further from their grasp?

        • Clap
        • Haha
        • Love
        • Like
      • 414 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • PREVIEW: Geelong

      "It's officially time for some alarm bells. I'm concerned about the lack of impact from their best players." This comment about one of the teams contesting this Friday night’s game came earlier in the week from a so-called expert radio commentator by the name of Kane Cornes. He wasn’t referring to the Melbourne Football Club but rather, this week’s home side, Geelong.The Cats are purring along with 1 win and 2 defeats and a percentage of 126.2 (courtesy of a big win at GMHBA Stadium in Round 1 vs Fremantle) which is one win more than Melbourne and double the percentage so I guess that, in the case of the Demons, its not just alarm bells, but distress signals. But don’t rely on me. Listen to Cornes who said this week about Melbourne:- “They can’t run. If you can’t run at speed and get out of the contest then you’re in trouble.

        • Like
      • 3 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • NON-MFC: Round 04

      Round 4 kicks off with a blockbuster on Thursday night as traditional rivals Collingwood and Carlton clash at the MCG, with the Magpies looking to assert themselves as early-season contenders and the Blues seeking their first win of the season. Saturday opens with Gold Coast hosting Adelaide, a key test for the Suns as they aim to back up their big win last week, while the Crows will be looking to keep their perfect record intact. Reigning wooden spooners Richmond have the daunting task of facing reigning premiers Brisbane at the ‘G and the Lions will be eager to reaffirm their premiership credentials after a patchy start. Saturday night sees North Melbourne take on Sydney at Marvel Stadium, with the Swans looking to build on their first win of the season last week against a rebuilding Roos outfit.
      Sunday’s action begins with GWS hosting West Coast at ENGIE Stadium, a game that could get ugly very early for the visitors. Port Adelaide vs St Kilda at Adelaide Oval looms as a interesting clash, with both clubs form being very hard to read. The round wraps up with Fremantle taking on the Western Bulldogs at Optus Stadium in what could be a fierce contest between two sides with top-eight ambitions. Who are you tipping this week and what are the best results for the Demons besides us winning?

        • Shocked
        • Like
      • 169 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • CASEY: Gold Coast

      For a brief period of time in the early afternoon of yesterday, the Casey Demons occupied top place on the Smithy’s VFL table. This was only made possible by virtue of the fact that the team was the only one in this crazy competition to have played twice and it’s 1½ wins gave it an unassailable lead on the other 20 teams, some of who had yet to play a game.

      • 0 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • REPORT: Gold Coast

      In my all-time nightmare game, the team is so ill-disciplined that it concedes its first two goals with the courtesy of not one, but two, fifty metre penalties while opening its own scoring with four behinds in a row and losing a talented youngster with good decision-making skills and a lethal left foot kick, subbed off in the first quarter with what looks like a bad knee injury. 

      • 0 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • PODCAST: Gold Coast

      The Demonland Podcast will air LIVE on Monday, 31st March @ the all new time of 8:00pm. Join Binman, George & I as we analyse the Demons loss at the MCG to the Suns in the Round 03. Your questions and comments are a huge part of our podcast so please post anything you want to ask or say below and we'll give you a shout out on the show. If you would like to leave us a voicemail please call 03 9016 3666 and don't worry no body answers so you don't have to talk to a human.

        • Sad
        • Like
      • 69 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland
    View All