Second half fade outs

[Rocknroll 1,002]

Been wanting to do this analysis for a little while. (posted this in the wrong section) 

 

Just a simple look at round 1-10 compared with 11-21 on our scoring in quarters ( Some old school excel skills at use) 

 

So in round 1-10 3rd quarter was our best and we kept teems under 15 points across all quarter

 

in rounds 11-21 second half's were horrid (15 points) where the oppo is coming home with a surge 

 

Same data but expressed differently 

 

 

Don't want to get into a loading conversation but just wanted to show these trends and (other than loading) what is going on here. 

 

 

[Demon4Life 603]

We look tired

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,702]

The pre finals bye will do us the world of good, staying in Melb is the key. Look how we came out after the bye against Brisbane.

Just need to Jag the next 2 against Carl and Brisvegas.

[Waltham33 475]

I look at it this way, the doubled over hands on hips test.  At half time we had a 2:1 ratio of players doubled over and hands on hips.  What this means to me is yes we are tired.  This may not be because we are less fit - it may be the result of getting everyones best for 20 weeks + a number of weeks of less than 7 days between games.  Agree pre finals bye is critical

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,816]

11 minutes ago, YesitwasaWin4theAges said:

The pre finals bye will do us the world of good, staying in Melb is the key. Look how we came out after the bye against Brisbane.

I agree with that.

Our fixture has been the schedule from hell and totally uneven. 5 games away from the G and travel to Adelaide, Geelong, Alice Springs and Perth in that 5 week period. It had to have impacted us in some way.

On topic, interesting that our third quarters were largely dominant in the first 10 games, in which we played 7 of them in Melbourne.

Lately our third quarters have largely been even with the oppo but getting run over in the last quarter.

I think travelling has something to do with our fadeouts. We seem to be galvanised on our interstate trips but run out of juice the week after we get back.

 

 

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,816]

1 minute ago, Waltham33 said:

I look at it this way, the doubled over hands on hips test.  At half time we had a 2:1 ratio of players doubled over and hands on hips.  What this means to me is yes we are tired.  This may not be because we are less fit - it may be the result of getting everyones best for 20 weeks + a number of weeks of less than 7 days between games.  Agree pre finals bye is critical

Happen to notice Collingwood's ratio by any chance?

They look fit and play out games well.

[layzie 33,793]

It's a major concern considering we owned the 3rd quarters for a long time there. Don't know what it is but we do not look as fit right now and maybe a break will help but something isn't right. 

[The heart beats true 18,123]

Thanks for the analysis @Rocknroll

I’d paraphrase the data regarding recent 1st halves vs 2nd halves as…

[SFebes 4,884]

I just wonder if its in their minds and not fitness.....

Last year our 3rd quarters were pretty good. The prelim and GF we blew Cats and Dogs off the park. I wonder if all the effort and no reward (scoreboard) is taking its toll, players throw the towel in a bit. We need to be smarter with our entries, that includes Oliver and Petracca, who should be nailing passes inside 50. Seeing them bomb long will affect the second tiers.

Its obvious the game plan is kick it in quick and try and hold it there, however this only works if the forwards pressure is relentless, ie; repeat entries and shots. We can minimise our efficiency by being smarter and efficient and thats on the coaches from here.

We are running out of time.

[bobby1554 1,244]

Nice work Rocknroll. The easy answer may be the teams we played in the first 10 rounds, as opposed to the teams we played in rounds 11-20. Maybe the better teams have just improved more than we have (or dare I say it, we may have gone backwards a little?)

[John Demonic 5,786]

2 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Happen to notice Collingwood's ratio by any chance?

They look fit and play out games well.

I recall a stat for Sydney that they are 17/3 for last quarters won. I say this, as it bodes well for them ending Collingwoods streak this week and being our QF matchup away or at the G (If we win both our games)

Edited August 8, 2022 by John Demonic

[Stein9193 129]

Our problem is with the mcg. We Don't play it well and always end up knackered. We're more suited to The smaller grounds.

[layzie 33,793]

3 minutes ago, Stein9193 said:

Our problem is with the mcg. We Don't play it well and always end up knackered. We're more suited to The smaller grounds.

We can't win on the G or Marvel lately so go figure..

[BenF 56]

I'd like a more solid approach.

[Monocology 1,109]

I miss Burgess & Barge-[censored]. 

[kev martin 9,878]

I believe we lose desperation and give the oppo some momentum that we have trouble turning around, when we go into the 3rd quarter 

The oppo also puts some tweeks into their game and we sit on our laurels. 

We need to stay hungry and unpredictable. 

Lets play the 3rd quarter for what it is known, the premiership quarter. Time to hammer, bring the bang in the third.

[SPC 3,549]

I’m going to drop something that I heard in an interview last year from Trac. He said that because of the confidence he and the mids had in the defence, that they could cheat slightly with defensive running as they were confident our backs would intercept, then could charge forward. 
The problem we have now is that we cannot always control opposition movement from our forward 50. The clean ball is making our defenders panic and as a result, the midfield push harder back to cover. A lot harder than late last year, this is why they look gassed. 
The loss in faith in the back 6 has meant we are not taking risks with our running patterns, which also makes our ball movement at times looks stodgy. 
It is a small margin for error, but we have just loss a bit of confidence in one another to win key contests.
 

Edited August 8, 2022 by SPC

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

I’m a firm believer that the competition is becoming more of an endurance sport and less and less a sport of skill.

The shortened pre-season that the Premier has to face creates a significant disadvantage for the season ahead. The only reason I feel Richmond were able to do it back 2 back was the longer preseason due to COVID and the 17 game fixture. 

I think more and more teams that will win the flag over the next decade will come from those with early final exits or miss finals altogether. It’s no surprise that our superior fitness came from a long pre-season.

Edited August 8, 2022 by At the break of Gawn

[SFebes 4,884]

4 minutes ago, At the break of Gawn said:

I’m a firm believer that the competition is becoming more of an endurance sport and less and less a sport of skill.

The shortened pre-season that the Premier has to face creates a significant disadvantage for the season ahead. The only reason I feel Richmond were able to do it back 2 back was the longer preseason due to COVID and the 17 game fixture. 

I think more and more teams that will win the flag over the next decade will come from those with early final exits or miss finals altogether. It’s no surprise that our superior fitness came from a long pre-season.

But but we're loading....

[layzie 33,793]

Well let's hand this one over to the viewers to decide!

[old dee 23,787]

We have returned to playing like the demons of old. No matter how big the lead we were always scared we would lose the game and often did. Are we now dropping into the same frame of mind? Confidence or lack of it is all between the ears. 

Edited August 8, 2022 by old dee

[Romey 156]

Last year one of our greatest strengths was our ability to finish games strongly. This article   explains how this has dropped off over the past 10 weeks. 

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-10/melbourne-demons-need-to-fix-their-second-halves-afl-finals/101313826

 

[Dr. Gonzo 24,206]

Last year I was confident that if we were within 5 goals at halftime we would win.

This year I don't know if 5 goals is a big enough lead for us to take into the 2nd half!

[Romey 156]

Last year one of our greatest strengths was our ability to finish games strongly. This article   explains how this has dropped off over the past 10 weeks. 

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-10/melbourne-demons-need-to-fix-their-second-halves-afl-finals/101313826

 

[Superunknown 4,215]

1 hour ago, Romey said:

Last year one of our greatest strengths was our ability to finish games strongly. This article   explains how this has dropped off over the past 10 weeks. 

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-10/melbourne-demons-need-to-fix-their-second-halves-afl-finals/101313826

 

Jeez that table of the 5 losses after leading show some seriously bad turn arounds - 50-60 points