Are we as fit as last year ?

[kallangurdemon 550]

Last year the team just ran ran and ran until they broke the opposition with run and carry .They tackled in twos and threes from the first bounce to the final siren .This year they seem to do thsi for maybe a quarter or half a quarter .Then the opposition seems to damage us with their run and carry .This has even been the case with lowly sides who we never really put away .Is this a fitness issue or something else entirely ?

[Vipercrunch 2,820]

Not true for all of last year.  4W-1D-4L in the middle of the season and we were terrible in some of those losses.

At our best what you said is true, but we simply were not at the best all of last year.

[Young Blood 2,353]

It's a big concern for me.

Last year we were able to combat the quick corridor ball movement using our fitness and ability to get back to zone off and make teams kick down the line on the wings (ie filling up the space through the middle of the ground)

If its off a quick turnover then there's less you can do about this. BUT I've been so concerned watching teams move the ball easily with numbers through the middle of the ground the last three weeks when we have had the opportunity to get back and set up properly.

The work rate just isn't there defensively at the moment. I think a lot of that comes down to fitness. We're not running out of games anywhere near like we were last year. 

[Fork 'em 6,974]

I miss Burgo.

[Ted Lasso 18,911]

We had exactly the same problems at the same stage last year, i distinctly remember the same commentators saying we can't score, and we can't win the premiership unless we address it. 

I think there are a lot of reasons for it, but one of those in my opinion is because we've banked early wins we've gone about a process to try and ensure we peak at the right time, and that means both this season and last we've had a flat patch in the middle rounds after a win streak. 

we were never going to just win all 23 games and smack everyone in finals. but i am still very confident we will be there abouts and give ourselves a huge chance to go back to back. 

[Ham 741]

No, we're not. 

[Vipercrunch 2,820]

5 minutes ago, Fork 'em said:

I miss Burgo.

Why?  What is different to this time last year when he was here?

https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/3072#match-report   -   Match Report from Queens Birthday game 2021 (reminder that Collingwood were a worse side last year and we had had a better run with injuries)

"disappointing Dees side"  

"they struggled to string together any consistent fluency in attack, and appeared flat"

"looked sluggish at times throughout the game"

[Fork 'em 6,974]

Just now, Vipercrunch said:

Why?  What is different to this time last year when he was here?

https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/3072#match-report   -   Match Report from Queens Birthday game 2021 (reminder that Collingwood were a worse side last year and we had had a better run with injuries)

"disappointing Dees side"  

"they struggled to string together any consistent fluency in attack, and appeared flat"

"looked sluggish at times throughout the game"

Well .... We weren't getting run over in 2nd halfs for a start.
And our injury list wasn't as long.

[The heart beats true 17,912]

29 minutes ago, Vipercrunch said:

Not true for all of last year.  4W-1D-4L in the middle of the season and we were terrible in some of those losses.

At our best what you said is true, but we simply were not at the best all of last year.

#facts

Why be at your best in June when you can train to be brilliant in September. We might not like it, but at least we have history to reflect on to make us feel confident.

 

[Fork 'em 6,974]

9 minutes ago, The heart beats true said:

#facts

Why be at your best in June when you can train to be brilliant in September. We might not like it, but at least we have history to reflect on to make us feel confident.

 

We've got it right once in the last 57yrs.

[dazzledavey36 53,277]

Clearly we are not fit.

There is a significant difference to last year. Our pressure rating was still high and we weren't being overrun by teams in the 2nd half of games 3 weeks in a row.

People thinking that is just the same similarity process like last year is kidding themselves.

Our team is more banged up injury wise compared to last year and we're leaking goals way too easily.

Opposition clubs have now done intense homework on us now compared to last. Get us through the corridor and you have us on toast.

Clubs have now ramped up their ball movement on the turnover because without May we aren't as organised quickly as we were last year.

Fitness is lacking but being found out by other clubs is another. Just because it worked last year doesn't mean it'll work this year.

The game is evolving rapidly each year and exactly what Damien Hardwick was banging on about last night on AFL 360

Edited June 14, 2022 by dazzledavey36

[Vipercrunch 2,820]

27 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Clearly we are not fit.

There is a significant difference to last year. Our pressure rating was still high and we weren't being overrun by teams in the 2nd half of games 3 weeks in a row.

People thinking that is just the same similarity process like last year is kidding themselves.

Our team is more banged up injury wise compared to last year and we're leaking goals way too easily.

Opposition clubs have now done intense homework on us now compared to last. Get us through the corridor and you have us on toast.

Clubs have now ramped up their ball movement on the turnover because without May we aren't as organised quickly as we were last year.

Fitness is lacking but being found out by other clubs is another. Just because it worked last year doesn't mean it'll work this year.

The game is evolving rapidly each year and exactly what Damien Hardwick was banging on about last night on AFL 360

If you and @Fork 'em are so sure of yourself, go to the Run Home Prediction thread and make a prediction of what happens from here.

 

Edited June 14, 2022 by Vipercrunch

[Fork 'em 6,974]

8 minutes ago, Vipercrunch said:

If you and @Fork 'em are so sure of yourself, go to the Run Home Prediction thread and make a prediction of what happens from here.

 

I'll leave the fortune telling BS to you.
One thing I've learnt following Melbourne over the years is that anything could happen from here.
 

[monoccular 17,345]

49 minutes ago, Dwight Schrute said:

We had exactly the same problems at the same stage last year, i distinctly remember the same commentators saying we can't score, and we can't win the premiership unless we address it. 

I think there are a lot of reasons for it, but one of those in my opinion is because we've banked early wins we've gone about a process to try and ensure we peak at the right time, and that means both this season and last we've had a flat patch in the middle rounds after a win streak. 

we were never going to just win all 23 games and smack everyone in finals. but i am still very confident we will be there abouts and give ourselves a huge chance to go back to back. 

OMG I hope your analysis is right.  ❤️💙❤️💙

[von 1,506]

Probably not. We had a shorter pre season so we’d be somewhat behind. We would plan to be where we need to be come finals though.

[Lord Travis 10,519]

After halftime over these last three games, we have scored just 5.16 while having a whopping 25.9 kicked against. In  percentage terms, that’s 28.9%. If we are loading, then we miscalculated badly.

We aren’t as fit as last year, but our poor form can’t be entirely blamed on loading. Even before these losses we’ve been in average/poor form despite winning. By any metric, we aren’t the team we were last year. We have trust and connection issues. Last year players would trust there team mates to enter a contest out numbered. The one entering the contest would either get the ball free to the waiting player on the outside, or at worst halve the contest and create a stoppage. It takes trust in your mate to go against your natural instincts and hang back. This year we’ve reverted to bees at a honeypot. The trust is gone, players are charging in without thought as they’re now trying too hard and going into self preservation mode to hold their spot in the team. We now see other teams giving us a taste of our own medicine. How many times do we see Sparrow, Viney, Trac and Harmes smash into each other trying to win the ball, only for it to pop out to opposition just hanging outside the pack waiting? It’s a mindset issue that needs to be fixed more so than fitness.

[deelusions from afar 1,707]

I find myself agreeing with multiple posters in this thread... who are disagreeing with each other. 🤨🤷‍♂️

I was strangely more confident last year because we showed we would lift to another level when playing a genuine contender (Cats, Tigers, Dogs, Lions).  I was fairly confident that after getting 10 wins on the board that it was all about peaking at the right time - though never thought we could produce such dominant finals footy.

 

There's reasons to suggest that this year may be similar.  In some ways it's more impressive because we haven't had a settled lineup (particularly in defence) all year.  But when facing the contenders, we've crumbled.

My main concern is that we haven't just dropped the last 3 weeks - we haven't played consistent footy all year.  Our best wins have come from a quarter or so of dominance rather than our pressure and fitness wearing sides down.  Clearly teams have gone to work on us and with some key injuries / soreness, drop in confidence, form etc it doesn't take a lot to be brought back to the pack. 

I know stats can be misleading but the one about us going from the 1st to the 17th ranked team in pressure is bizarre.  I would have thought this is mostly about effort?  Slobbo on 360 asked Goody directly about it - he said it's more complex than effort because much of it has to do with positioning and team defence (I assume to ensure the ball carrier is less certain and takes longer to dispose of the ball).  But we're not just middle of the road in this area now - we're right at the bottom.

 

Having said that, Goody doesn't seem concerned at all (not that he would show it).  I think we will rediscover our form in the back half of the year - but whether it is still capable of beating the other contenders when they are also peaking remains to be seen.

[Ted Lasso 18,911]

I would ask all posters who actually believe this team is unfit to go back and really look at last season. 

In the same block of games we lost to the Crows, Pies, Giants, Dogs and drew with the Hawks. we faced almost identical criticisms from the media in terms of our lack of run, suggestions we'd been found out and if we don't improve our scoring we can't win the premiership

our form between rounds 10-19 last season was incredibly patchy, we didn't win more than 50% of games but from round 20 we significantly and suddenly improved and hit our best football right in time for finals, almost by design. 

This year i believe we're in exactly the same phase, the only difference is due to injury and unavailability our backline has been compromised the last 3 weeks and we've struggled to stop opposition momentum. 

With Steven May in the side i believe we'd have won at least 1 of those games. 

I almost guarantee this team will set themselves and really lift for the Lions game, but i strongly believe we are setting ourselves to play our best footy when it counts.

[DeePressed 114]

1 hour ago, kallangurdemon said:

Last year the team just ran ran and ran until they broke the opposition with run and carry .They tackled in twos and threes from the first bounce to the final siren .This year they seem to do thsi for maybe a quarter or half a quarter .Then the opposition seems to damage us with their run and carry .This has even been the case with lowly sides who we never really put away .Is this a fitness issue or something else entirely ?

Agree with this and also others on last year. We did have an ordinary mid year last year.

We've also had 5 weeks less rest than Freo/Collingwood and 4 weeks less than Sydney so fatigue I can kind of understand.

 

[Sir Why You Little 36,737]

I am not panicking yet. But i do find it fascinating that we have led the last 3 games, but cannot score in the 2nd half. 
All 3 Games are almost identical 

That tells me that it is a single problem, is it planned. I have no idea

But training loads may well be it. I know Selwyn is working the List hard

I expect to see a different Gamestyle after the Bye

[Engorged Onion 10,186]

I'd argue we are too fit... it just doesn't look like it 😇 yet...😍

 

 "

 

Edited June 14, 2022 by Engorged Onion

[von 1,506]

1 minute ago, Engorged Onion said:

I'd argue we are too fit... it just doesn't look like it 😇 yet...😍

That may be spot on. 

[Sir Why You Little 36,737]

1 minute ago, Engorged Onion said:

I'd argue we are too fit... it just doesn't look like it 😇 yet...😍

Yes. The fact we had a flat spot at the same time last year makes me believe this is factored into the long term plan. 
Losing S May has made it harder, because he brings Mr Ed into the game. 
If Ed is beating his opponent all day, we win

[The heart beats true 17,912]

2 hours ago, Fork 'em said:

We've got it right once in the last 57yrs.

There’s 2 ways to decipher information. One is you look at all the data available, even if almost none of it is relevant. The other way is to look at the most relevant recent data.

So when the threads title asks a specific question in relation to a specific time period I know which theory I’d use.

Or we could talk about 1965 some more? 32 years before Clayton Oliver was born.

[DeeSpencer 24,908]

Lever’s cooked and the backline has battled injuries and in game injuries, overall just hasn’t covered the ground at half back as they did last year. Salem hopefully finds some continuity now and May comes back in.

Tom McDonald’s a clear missing piece across half forward. He makes a 2 way effort as well. Brown clearly battling - as he did for most of last year to be fair before a strong finals.

Are the mids as fit? Well… I’d say Viney, JJ and Sparrow are putting in work. Langdon maybe not 100% since injury but before that was looking his usual self. Harmes maybe the same.

Oliver has been tagged or faded a little in second halves but he’s clearly racking it up.

Petracca is the big one. He took his game to incredible levels under Burgo. And his game style and body shape are both very rare. Hopefully the bye can tune him back up.