13 minutes ago, Vipercrunch said:

Here's the rough map of how I think our loads could have looked using the 10 Percent Rule, which is the rule of thumb for improving running milage.  This method is all about increasing milage (and therefore fitness) without risking injury.  Like many rule of thumbs, there is a lot of conjecture about this one, especially that is is too conservative for experienced and elite runners (which AFL players would be), but it is still a useful principle to look at the method athletes use to increase performance.

1. Round 1 to 9 (WCE) on May 15th we were in maintenance phase at whatever level was reached after our shortened preseason, with minimal (if any) increase in load.
2. Round 10 to 13 (NMFC, Freo, Syd, Coll) - the first phase of the build, incrementally increasing the training load by 10% each week.  If 100% is our maintenance week load, we would have gone 110%, 121%, 133% then 146% in the week before the Collingwood game.
3. 9 day break with the BYE Round - Recovery phase, so reduce training amount by two-thirds of previous week, meaning we are back to 98%.  Come out looking the freshest we have looked for many weeks against Brisbane.
4. Round 16 to 19 (Adel, Cats, Port, Dogs) - Back to loading, starting with a 10% increase from our previous load week (146%) so it is 161%, 177%, 195% then 214% of our original maintence training load.
5. Round 20, reovery week,  so back down to 144%, which because of the work done over the previous 9 weeks, the players can now manage easily, meaning we come out looking fresh against Freo.  Hopefully.
6. Round 21 onwards - back to a maintenance program, which could be at the 214% level, or they might hold at a lower level given they want to maintain "peak" for 8 weeks.

All of this is load is monitored using GPS (recording distance and intensity of milage), plus other metrics that ensure the individuals are reaching but not exceeding the desired fatigue levels.  Using GPS monitoring in games and at training means they can better handle loads despite varied length of breaks between games etc.

If the increased load AFL players can safely manage is actually say 15%, the peak week of the program outlined above would be 306% of the original starting load, which is incredible.

Great post. 

Thanks. Let's hope to see an energy bump. 

Although it'll still be hard to tell what the motivation behind a response will be given our backs are against the wall! 

30 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Our game relies heavily on defence. 

Our suscess in September last year came because we were the fittest team in the AFL at that stage which allowed us to excecute a game plan that relies heavily on defence and grinding the oppenent into the dirt with hard two-way running.  It is impossible to maintain that level of fitness for the entire season plus finals.  Human bodies just don't work like that.  If you accept that, then you also have to accept that to ensure you are at the fitness level required in September to excecute the game plan, you have to sacrifice performance at stages before September to reach the required level.  It doesn't mean fatigue caused by loading is the only factor in our perfromances, but when a team can't execute their gameplan for entire games because of fatigue, it is not surprising at all that they get picked apart and overun, especially if their gameplan in centred around being fitter than the oppisition.

And as has been said many times before, loading came up long before we lost a game this year.  Binman (and perhaps others) raised it before the season started.  It's not a knee jerk reaction to make people feel better about losing.  

44 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Maybe:

• freo won because we had a heap of players covering covid absentees and the newbies made cohesiveness harder.  May out early and Freo exploited all that in the second half.
• Sydney and Geelong won because they used different tactics that challenged us.  As Goodwin has said clubs always try new things and we learn from them.
• bulldogs won because we were missing most of our fwd line and key interceptor, Lever.
• Coll won because we had only half our backline.

They as the better teams also exploited our lack of a settled forward line.

Our game relies heavily on defence.  In our losses to top 8 sides only in the Geelong game did we have all of May, Lever, Petty, Salem.  So maybe their and other key player abscences have been significant.

I fully believe we and other clubs use a loading program.  And that there are various loading programs/models available.  Not all clubs will use the same program/model altho in principle they have loading and tapering phase(s).  I just get frustrated with the ardent followers on here when they don't really acknowledge the above facts in our losses, in particular other club's coaching tactics.  Which by the way doesn't mean 'we have been found out'.  It simply means that on the day what they did worked better than what we did.  They just say 'other factors' affect results.  Then happily promote loading in our wins/losses without really knowing which loading program is being followed or when the loading and tapering phases are timed nor how that timing relates to our losses, except guesswork.

So when we lose the first thing that comes up is 'loading'.  And as for a 'loading end' party, please.

And some loading proponents have started talking about how 'lucky' we were last year...

I haven't heard anyone in the loading periodisation discussions suggest any such thing. Loading only explains our performance vs our best performance. It has nothing to do with whether our game plan stacks up or whether other teams have found a way to combat our plan(s). I'm only taking this on because it seems to pop up again and again. I think I speak for all people who have posted in support of this theory/approach. It is only A factor not the only factor. It can explain our cyclic drop off in intensity and leads us to hope that when the pointy end of the season comes we will not see that drop off. There are so many other factors also at play - injuries, growth of other teams, changes/new strategies we have not seen before, in game tactics and changes. Nobody is denying any of these things.

1 hour ago, Vipercrunch said:

Our suscess in September last year came because we were the fittest team in the AFL at that stage which allowed us to excecute a game plan that relies heavily on defence and grinding the oppenent into the dirt with hard two-way running.  It is impossible to maintain that level of fitness for the entire season plus finals.  Human bodies just don't work like that.  If you accept that, then you also have to accept that to ensure you are at the fitness level required in September to excecute the game plan, you have to sacrifice performance at stages before September to reach the required level.  It doesn't mean fatigue caused by loading is the only factor in our perfromances, but when a team can't execute their gameplan for entire games because of fatigue, it is not surprising at all that they get picked apart and overun, especially if their gameplan in centred around being fitter than the oppisition.

And as has been said many times before, loading came up long before we lost a game this year.  Binman (and perhaps others) raised it before the season started.  It's not a knee jerk reaction to make people feel better about losing.  

It isn't helpful to take one sentence: 'Our game relies heavily on defence' out of context of my post.  I'm not sure what the above post has to do with what I wrote.  I listed some key facts in our losses to very good sides and some of the best coaches in the league.  Ignore them if you like.

There are lots of reasons why players fatigue in games, loading is but one of them.  I clearly said I believe in the loading programs. 

All sports have loading so it doesn''t take a crystal ball to predict it at the beginning of a season.

Edited July 25, 20222 yr by Lucifers Hero

1 hour ago, FlashInThePan said:

I haven't heard anyone in the loading periodisation discussions suggest any such thing. Loading only explains our performance vs our best performance. It has nothing to do with whether our game plan stacks up or whether other teams have found a way to combat our plan(s). I'm only taking this on because it seems to pop up again and again. I think I speak for all people who have posted in support of this theory/approach. It is only A factor not the only factor. It can explain our cyclic drop off in intensity and leads us to hope that when the pointy end of the season comes we will not see that drop off. There are so many other factors also at play - injuries, growth of other teams, changes/new strategies we have not seen before, in game tactics and changes. Nobody is denying any of these things.

The way it is often presented on DL is that it is the major factor contributing to our losses.  And the facts I listed are rarely given much discussion regarding those losses but mentioned in passing or generalities as the last few lines of your post do.

I'll repeat, I believe in loading programs.

Edited July 25, 20222 yr by Lucifers Hero

If this true and we can basically predict how we will perform based on loading, the sport really is in a bad place. It’s turned into a battle of who is the fittest or who has the best phys-edders 

2 hours ago, Vipercrunch said:

Our suscess in September last year came because we were the fittest team in the AFL at that stage which allowed us to excecute a game plan that relies heavily on defence and grinding the oppenent into the dirt with hard two-way running.  It is impossible to maintain that level of fitness for the entire season plus finals.  Human bodies just don't work like that.  If you accept that, then you also have to accept that to ensure you are at the fitness level required in September to excecute the game plan, you have to sacrifice performance at stages before September to reach the required level.  It doesn't mean fatigue caused by loading is the only factor in our perfromances, but when a team can't execute their gameplan for entire games because of fatigue, it is not surprising at all that they get picked apart and overun, especially if their gameplan in centred around being fitter than the oppisition.

And as has been said many times before, loading came up long before we lost a game this year.  Binman (and perhaps others) raised it before the season started.  It's not a knee jerk reaction to make people feel better about losing.  

Awesome break downs Viper.

I believe.

22 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

The way it is often presented on DL is that it is the major factor contributing to our losses.  And the facts I listed are rarely given much discussion regarding those losses but mentioned in passing or generalities as the last few lines of your post do.

I'll repeat, I believe in loading programs.

I kind of view it differently to this. 

Firstly, no matter what training program, strategy and everything else we put in place, there will always be losses. 

The aim is not to go through the season un-defeated. And it’s often just not possible to state with certainty why we lost games. 

If you are a “believer” of loading, it’s not so much justifying losses, or claiming what the “major contributing factor” was, but more providing a point as to why we can expect better performances approaching finals and during finals. 

It also allows you to look past a few “areas of concern” that are unlikely to be a problem when closer to our best (from a fitness & intensity & pressure perspective) 

All to be revealed the next few weeks 

3 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

So when we lose the first thing that comes up is 'loading'.  And as for a 'loading end' party, please.

I'm disappointed LH, I came up with the Loading End party idea. Hurt.

😜

50 minutes ago, layzie said:

I'm disappointed LH, I came up with the Loading End party idea. Hurt.

😜

Are we free to go ahead with our planned Loading End parties Friday night? 

 

Loading gets raised so often as an alternate view to those who accuse the players of simply not trying hard enough or being complacent.  Or those who want to make drastic changes to our gameplan or who believe bringing in a debutant (JVR) will cause so much excitment within the paying group they will start to play better.  Or who, like someone did after our most recent loss, wants to remove our coach and throw everything after Clarkson.  

Edited July 25, 20222 yr by Vipercrunch

36 minutes ago, 1964_2 said:

Are we free to go ahead with our planned Loading End parties Friday night? 

Well I am regardless, these croissants and array of cheeses aren't going to eat themselves!

7 hours ago, Vipercrunch said:

Here's the rough map of how I think our loads could have looked using the 10 Percent Rule, which is the rule of thumb for improving running milage.  This method is all about increasing milage (and therefore fitness) without risking injury.  Like many rule of thumbs, there is a lot of conjecture about this one, especially that is is too conservative for experienced and elite runners (which AFL players would be), but it is still a useful principle to look at the method athletes use to increase performance.

1. Round 1 to 9 (WCE) on May 15th we were in maintenance phase at whatever level was reached after our shortened preseason, with minimal (if any) increase in load.
2. Round 10 to 13 (NMFC, Freo, Syd, Coll) - the first phase of the build, incrementally increasing the training load by 10% each week.  If 100% is our maintenance week load, we would have gone 110%, 121%, 133% then 146% in the week before the Collingwood game.
3. 9 day break with the BYE Round - Recovery phase, so reduce training amount by two-thirds of previous week, meaning we are back to 98%.  Come out looking the freshest we have looked for many weeks against Brisbane.
4. Round 16 to 19 (Adel, Cats, Port, Dogs) - Back to loading, starting with a 10% increase from our previous load week (146%) so it is 161%, 177%, 195% then 214% of our original maintence training load.
5. Round 20, reovery week,  so back down to 144%, which because of the work done over the previous 9 weeks, the players can now manage easily, meaning we come out looking fresh against Freo.  Hopefully.
6. Round 21 onwards - back to a maintenance program, which could be at the 214% level, or they might hold at a lower level given they want to maintain "peak" for 8 weeks.

All of this is load is monitored using GPS (recording distance and intensity of milage), plus other metrics that ensure the individuals are reaching but not exceeding the desired fatigue levels.  Using GPS monitoring in games and at training means they can better handle loads despite varied length of breaks between games etc.

If the increased load AFL players can safely manage is actually say 15%, the peak week of the program outlined above would be 306% of the original starting load, which is incredible.

That sounds awfully reasonable 

5 hours ago, DubDee said:

If this true and we can basically predict how we will perform based on loading, the sport really is in a bad place. It’s turned into a battle of who is the fittest or who has the best phys-edders 

Not true. You still need enough top A grade talent and the best bottom six etc. it probably just helps seperate the top 4 from each other and probably always has.

I have a theory that isn't on here so I'll opinionate and if wrong happy to be pulled up.

Firstly I don't believe we are in a loading phase. I think we have held on to a game plan far too long that has been dissected and beaten and we refuse to change.

Secondly the major difference for me is mental fatigue. We are not handling being the "hunted". All our losses we have been trying to hold on and our opposition has run over the top of us. It's hard work. It's not as much fun and all we feel after a win is relief. Not a natural uplifting joy. Well certainly not as much as last year. We are not "loading" we are tired. Mentally fatigued. This is easy enough to fix but Goodwin and co. are super slow to do anything at this point.

Thirdly "Jimmy's wing is Broken". Our defensive wing has been picked apart and is not working anymore. We are slow and predictable and our turn-overs here are killing us. Jimmy Jordan whenever he gets the ball stops and props then kicks down the line to a tall. There is no speed or dare. Jimmy is a lovely bloke but in the words of Jack Elliot he is "a good ordinary footballer". He needs to be re-invented. This wing is the source of the problem with other aspects of our game including Salem, Bowey and Brayshaw. This brings me to number four

Brayshaw is not being used to his capacity. Goodwin said he was reluctant to move Brayshaw. He should try the opposite. Every position he has played he has mastered. He is a GUN. Look at the way Dogs use their midfielders. Duncan is played everywhere. Bont goes wherever he feels he is needed. They are much more flexible. Brayshaw being stuck in the backline is stupid. No wonder he wants to leave. He should be played in a variety of positions as required from forward to back. His marking is a weapon. His strength is similar to a Dusty. Leave him one out in the forward line and he'd win every contest.

Furthermore if we lose Brayshaw I'll be ropable. We need to sign him up and promise him the next Captaincy when he and Max think it appropriate.

So for a start Jordan out. And move Brayshaw. 

59 minutes ago, deespicable me said:

I have a theory that isn't on here so I'll opinionate and if wrong happy to be pulled up.

Firstly I don't believe we are in a loading phase. I think we have held on to a game plan far too long that has been dissected and beaten and we refuse to change.

Secondly the major difference for me is mental fatigue. We are not handling being the "hunted". All our losses we have been trying to hold on and our opposition has run over the top of us. It's hard work. It's not as much fun and all we feel after a win is relief. Not a natural uplifting joy. Well certainly not as much as last year. We are not "loading" we are tired. Mentally fatigued. This is easy enough to fix but Goodwin and co. are super slow to do anything at this point.

Thirdly "Jimmy's wing is Broken". Our defensive wing has been picked apart and is not working anymore. We are slow and predictable and our turn-overs here are killing us. Jimmy Jordan whenever he gets the ball stops and props then kicks down the line to a tall. There is no speed or dare. Jimmy is a lovely bloke but in the words of Jack Elliot he is "a good ordinary footballer". He needs to be re-invented. This wing is the source of the problem with other aspects of our game including Salem, Bowey and Brayshaw. This brings me to number four

Brayshaw is not being used to his capacity. Goodwin said he was reluctant to move Brayshaw. He should try the opposite. Every position he has played he has mastered. He is a GUN. Look at the way Dogs use their midfielders. Duncan is played everywhere. Bont goes wherever he feels he is needed. They are much more flexible. Brayshaw being stuck in the backline is stupid. No wonder he wants to leave. He should be played in a variety of positions as required from forward to back. His marking is a weapon. His strength is similar to a Dusty. Leave him one out in the forward line and he'd win every contest.

Furthermore if we lose Brayshaw I'll be ropable. We need to sign him up and promise him the next Captaincy when he and Max think it appropriate.

So for a start Jordan out. And move Brayshaw. 

Oh dear. Where are we on the ladder again?

Edited July 25, 20222 yr by djr

6 hours ago, DubDee said:

If this true and we can basically predict how we will perform based on loading, the sport really is in a bad place. It’s turned into a battle of who is the fittest or who has the best phys-edders 

This has been the case for a while mate. The "science" is just now better understood by the common man. Loading has been common practice in basketball and baseball in the US where there are extremely long seasons, you often see the best teams separate from the pack after the all-star breaks (equivalent to probably rounds 15-17 in AFL). Risky as you comprimise momentum. 

33 minutes ago, deespicable me said:

I have a theory that isn't on here so I'll opinionate and if wrong happy to be pulled up.

Firstly I don't believe we are in a loading phase. I think we have held on to a game plan far too long that has been dissected and beaten and we refuse to change.

Secondly the major difference for me is mental fatigue. We are not handling being the "hunted". All our losses we have been trying to hold on and our opposition has run over the top of us. It's hard work. It's not as much fun and all we feel after a win is relief. Not a natural uplifting joy. Well certainly not as much as last year. We are not "loading" we are tired. Mentally fatigued. This is easy enough to fix but Goodwin and co. are super slow to do anything at this point.

Thirdly "Jimmy's wing is Broken". Our defensive wing has been picked apart and is not working anymore. We are slow and predictable and our turn-overs here are killing us. Jimmy Jordan whenever he gets the ball stops and props then kicks down the line to a tall. There is no speed or dare. Jimmy is a lovely bloke but in the words of Jack Elliot he is "a good ordinary footballer". He needs to be re-invented. This wing is the source of the problem with other aspects of our game including Salem, Bowey and Brayshaw. This brings me to number four

Brayshaw is not being used to his capacity. Goodwin said he was reluctant to move Brayshaw. He should try the opposite. Every position he has played he has mastered. He is a GUN. Look at the way Dogs use their midfielders. Duncan is played everywhere. Bont goes wherever he feels he is needed. They are much more flexible. Brayshaw being stuck in the backline is stupid. No wonder he wants to leave. He should be played in a variety of positions as required from forward to back. His marking is a weapon. His strength is similar to a Dusty. Leave him one out in the forward line and he'd win every contest.

Furthermore if we lose Brayshaw I'll be ropable. We need to sign him up and promise him the next Captaincy when he and Max think it appropriate.

So for a start Jordan out. And move Brayshaw. 

I reckon we just don’t want it enough. Happy with one. The stars have all signed their big contracts and are just going to coast through to retirement now. Brayshaw is about to sign but it will only result in him settling in to mediocrity for 5 years before moving to Perth. Jackson is gone and we will get nothing back but a Brent Grgic type. Can’t see us being relevant moving forward. You’re right with the bulldogs and look at the wins losses and percentages for the year. Backs it up perfectly. Strong observation. Not to mention how well they stacked up against us last year when it mattered. Bevo is clearly a mastermind, not the unhinged madman some have claimed.

9 hours ago, Vipercrunch said:

Here's the rough map of how I think our loads could have looked using the 10 Percent Rule, which is the rule of thumb for improving running milage.  This method is all about increasing milage (and therefore fitness) without risking injury.  Like many rule of thumbs, there is a lot of conjecture about this one, especially that is is too conservative for experienced and elite runners (which AFL players would be), but it is still a useful principle to look at the method athletes use to increase performance.

1. Round 1 to 9 (WCE) on May 15th we were in maintenance phase at whatever level was reached after our shortened preseason, with minimal (if any) increase in load.
2. Round 10 to 13 (NMFC, Freo, Syd, Coll) - the first phase of the build, incrementally increasing the training load by 10% each week.  If 100% is our maintenance week load, we would have gone 110%, 121%, 133% then 146% in the week before the Collingwood game.
3. 9 day break with the BYE Round - Recovery phase, so reduce training amount by two-thirds of previous week, meaning we are back to 98%.  Come out looking the freshest we have looked for many weeks against Brisbane.
4. Round 16 to 19 (Adel, Cats, Port, Dogs) - Back to loading, starting with a 10% increase from our previous load week (146%) so it is 161%, 177%, 195% then 214% of our original maintence training load.
5. Round 20, reovery week,  so back down to 144%, which because of the work done over the previous 9 weeks, the players can now manage easily, meaning we come out looking fresh against Freo.  Hopefully.
6. Round 21 onwards - back to a maintenance program, which could be at the 214% level, or they might hold at a lower level given they want to maintain "peak" for 8 weeks.

All of this is load is monitored using GPS (recording distance and intensity of milage), plus other metrics that ensure the individuals are reaching but not exceeding the desired fatigue levels.  Using GPS monitoring in games and at training means they can better handle loads despite varied length of breaks between games etc.

If the increased load AFL players can safely manage is actually say 15%, the peak week of the program outlined above would be 306% of the original starting load, which is incredible.

Interesting theory 

if we don’t look much fitter over the next month would you be willing to say your theory is incorrect?

7 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Interesting theory 

if we don’t look much fitter over the next month would you be willing to say your theory is incorrect?

Absolutely.  

The equation is easy. 
 

We win = Not loading 

We lose = Loading 

15 minutes ago, von said:

I reckon we just don’t want it enough. Happy with one. The stars have all signed their big contracts and are just going to coast through to retirement now. Brayshaw is about to sign but it will only result in him settling in to mediocrity for 5 years before moving to Perth. Jackson is gone and we will get nothing back but a Brent Grgic type. Can’t see us being relevant moving forward. You’re right with the bulldogs and look at the wins losses and percentages for the year. Backs it up perfectly. Strong observation. Not to mention how well they stacked up against us last year when it mattered. Bevo is clearly a mastermind, not the unhinged madman some have claimed.

Oh, I didn't realise I was being so negative. I really like the reference to Brent Grigc. I don't think it's all doom and gloom though. I just think that we've more than come back to the pack and we need to re-invent ourselves a bit. We have a good list and yet we are going through a period where our weaknesses and inefficiencies are being exposed.

As to Luke Beveridge I think tactically he is superior to Goodwin. Goodwins major move in the last 5 minutes was to send May forward. Dogs couldn't win this year, they over-achieved last year, but they were an improved side on Saturday night from what we have seen. He has done a good job to keep them relevant while they improve their list.

42 minutes ago, djr said:

Oh dear. Where are we on the ladder again?

Yeah sure we're second with a bullet. We're loading and about to explode again and go undefeated for the rest of the year. Personally I think you're clutching at straws. But I'll be very happy to be wrong.

1 hour ago, deespicable me said:

I have a theory that isn't on here so I'll opinionate and if wrong happy to be pulled up.

Firstly I don't believe we are in a loading phase. I think we have held on to a game plan far too long that has been dissected and beaten and we refuse to change.

Secondly the major difference for me is mental fatigue. We are not handling being the "hunted". All our losses we have been trying to hold on and our opposition has run over the top of us. It's hard work. It's not as much fun and all we feel after a win is relief. Not a natural uplifting joy. Well certainly not as much as last year. We are not "loading" we are tired. Mentally fatigued. This is easy enough to fix but Goodwin and co. are super slow to do anything at this point.

Thirdly "Jimmy's wing is Broken". Our defensive wing has been picked apart and is not working anymore. We are slow and predictable and our turn-overs here are killing us. Jimmy Jordan whenever he gets the ball stops and props then kicks down the line to a tall. There is no speed or dare. Jimmy is a lovely bloke but in the words of Jack Elliot he is "a good ordinary footballer". He needs to be re-invented. This wing is the source of the problem with other aspects of our game including Salem, Bowey and Brayshaw. This brings me to number four

Brayshaw is not being used to his capacity. Goodwin said he was reluctant to move Brayshaw. He should try the opposite. Every position he has played he has mastered. He is a GUN. Look at the way Dogs use their midfielders. Duncan is played everywhere. Bont goes wherever he feels he is needed. They are much more flexible. Brayshaw being stuck in the backline is stupid. No wonder he wants to leave. He should be played in a variety of positions as required from forward to back. His marking is a weapon. His strength is similar to a Dusty. Leave him one out in the forward line and he'd win every contest.

Furthermore if we lose Brayshaw I'll be ropable. We need to sign him up and promise him the next Captaincy when he and Max think it appropriate.

So for a start Jordan out. And move Brayshaw. 

You had me nodding along about the mental fatigue, but you loose me thereafter. Still, your opinion has merit and you've made some good points. I'll also be sad if Gus leaves