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In Season - Loading/Periodisation: Put your conjecture here.



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1 hour ago, JimmyGadson said:

I don't think a comment from an ex-coach or player such as, "they look like they've been in a heavy loading phase which is contributing to their poor performance" is giving anything away. 

Especially if it's universally known that clubs do it as so many keep saying. 

Why wouldn't it be a talking point more often if it's so relevant? 

My thoughts are that maybe it has an effect and maybe it doesn't. Every week the media dissect a game to the nth degree, you'd think they would talk about this topic more if it was such an influencing factor? They don't hold back on taboo topics, if this is that. 

It simply doesn't make sense. 

But they really don’t dissect games much at all and this is why the afl media is a useless joke of a product that will hopefully one day be overhauled/modernised. Who amongst them would you say is a good analyst?

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1 minute ago, von said:

But they really don’t dissect games much at all and this is why the afl media is a useless joke of a product that will hopefully one day be overhauled/modernised. Who amongst them would you say is a good analyst?

Anyone watch Lloyd on Sun footy show yesterday?

Am sure there would have been no accountability to how wrong he is/was? 
 

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57 minutes ago, von said:

But they really don’t dissect games much at all and this is why the afl media is a useless joke of a product that will hopefully one day be overhauled/modernised. Who amongst them would you say is a good analyst?

There's a difference between being an expert on football and an expert at analysis and therein lies the problem with football commentators.

They may have great knowledge of the game (e.g. tactics at stoppages, defensive set ups or forward craft) but they show a lack of understanding of basic principles of data analysis and interpretation (e.g. consideration of data quality, causal direction, confounding factors). They also express common cognitive biases such as recency bias (David King ) and overconfidence bias (Dermie). This is to be expected; just as it takes years to develop a knowledge of the game so to it takes years to acquire proficiency in data analysis & interpretation.

Alas, sophisticated analysis and interpretation would make for dry media content (though the Mongrel Punt shows it's possible) . So, content makers proceed with the maxim "enrage to engage"!    

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7 minutes ago, speed demon said:

There's a difference between being an expert on football and an expert at analysis and therein lies the problem with football commentators.

They may have great knowledge of the game (e.g. tactics at stoppages, defensive set ups or forward craft) but they show a lack of understanding of basic principles of data analysis and interpretation (e.g. consideration of data quality, causal direction, confounding factors). They also express common cognitive biases such as recency bias (David King ) and overconfidence bias (Dermie). This is to be expected; just as it takes years to develop a knowledge of the game so to it takes years to acquire proficiency in data analysis & interpretation.

Alas, sophisticated analysis and interpretation would make for dry media content (though the Mongrel Punt shows it's possible) . So, content makers proceed with the maxim "enrage to engage"!    

Surely there’s room for that in a world that is currently void of it. A bit of dry amongst the dribble. I think there’s a lot of football fans crying out for it. 

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10 minutes ago, speed demon said:

There's a difference between being an expert on football and an expert at analysis and therein lies the problem with football commentators.

They may have great knowledge of the game (e.g. tactics at stoppages, defensive set ups or forward craft) but they show a lack of understanding of basic principles of data analysis and interpretation (e.g. consideration of data quality, causal direction, confounding factors). They also express common cognitive biases such as recency bias (David King ) and overconfidence bias (Dermie). This is to be expected; just as it takes years to develop a knowledge of the game so to it takes years to acquire proficiency in data analysis & interpretation.

Alas, sophisticated analysis and interpretation would make for dry media content (though the Mongrel Punt shows it's possible) . So, content makers proceed with the maxim "enrage to engage"!    

The art of commentary and analysis is to make the dry engaging and relatable to the novice. Employing boofhead ex-players as special comments isn't going to help them achieve this so they just go the lowest common denominator route.

Edited by Dr. Gonzo
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30 minutes ago, speed demon said:

There's a difference between being an expert on football and an expert at analysis and therein lies the problem with football commentators.

They may have great knowledge of the game (e.g. tactics at stoppages, defensive set ups or forward craft) but they show a lack of understanding of basic principles of data analysis and interpretation (e.g. consideration of data quality, causal direction, confounding factors). They also express common cognitive biases such as recency bias (David King ) and overconfidence bias (Dermie). This is to be expected; just as it takes years to develop a knowledge of the game so to it takes years to acquire proficiency in data analysis & interpretation.

Alas, sophisticated analysis and interpretation would make for dry media content (though the Mongrel Punt shows it's possible) . So, content makers proceed with the maxim "enrage to engage"!    

Nice to see some here have a concept of data analysis. People need to realize it's entirely possible to be a subject matter expert (i.e. an ex player) without having any of the skills required to analyze and interpret datasets 
 

Great post mate 

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23 minutes ago, von said:

Surely there’s room for that in a world that is currently void of it. A bit of dry amongst the dribble. I think there’s a lot of football fans crying out for it. 

There is, but not on TV. TV has never been a medium that promoted deep intellectual discussion. David King and Leigh Montagna are about as deep as it gets unfortunately. Their big 4 stats are about the most detailed actual data that you are likely to see on the box. 😔

 There are plenty of interesting online sites like stats insider. If you really love data  and analysis, TV is a dead end.

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3 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

Man. 

The legs this tosh has been given is too much to bare. 

I listened to crunch time on Saturday where Leon Cameron was part of the panel. Not once was there mention of bouncing after going through a heavy loading period from him. 

And he spoke to why we were able to respond. 

What I can't understand is why not one ex-player or ex-coach ever talks about it. And the conclusion I've come to is because IT'S SIMPLY OVERBLOWN

Perhaps there are minimal gains. 

But the way posters are going on about it in this thread is face-palm worthy. 

As I've asked before, if you or others have a better explanation for the unique shape of Melbournes 2021 season (9W's followed by a 9 game stretch of 4W-1D-4L, then 7W straight), as well as how closely their 2022 season mirrors 2021 so far, than what loading provides, I and I'm sure others, are ready to consider it.  None of the other vocal doubters have so far even attempted an explanation.

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41 minutes ago, speed demon said:

 

Alas, sophisticated analysis and interpretation would make for dry media content (though the Mongrel Punt shows it's possible) . So, content makers proceed with the maxim "enrage to engage"!    

I thought that was the case until I read in their article from Fridays game this beauty - "I'd argue that Melbourne simply wanted this one more."

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4 minutes ago, Vipercrunch said:

As I've asked before, if you or others have a better explanation for the unique shape of Melbournes 2021 season (9W's followed by a 9 game stretch of 4W-1D-4L, then 7W straight), as well as how closely their 2022 season mirrors 2021 so far, than what loading provides, I and I'm sure others, are ready to consider it.  None of the other vocal doubters have so far even attempted an explanation.

 

Screen Shot 2022-08-01 at 13.43.15.png

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I can't recall a player be8ng specifically asked about loading, so this interview by Tony Leonard with Jake Lever caught my attention.

How you interpret Jake's response will probably depend on where you sit with loading, but it is intersting nonetheless.

From 4.13.

https://omny.fm/shows/3aw-is-football/jake-lever-joins-us-from-the-winning-rooms

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Tony Leonard is under the radar as a commentator. Great interviewer as well. Laughed at the LJ Thin Lizzy reference.

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1 minute ago, Damo said:

Tony Leonard is under the radar as a commentator. Great interviewer as well. Laughed at the LJ Thin Lizzy reference.

Me too.

Pretty spot on too - Jackson's hair isn't quite as frizzy as Phil Lynott, but I can see where he was going.

image.png.05ab30af600d04c36c8dbec5e25c54c5.png

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35 minutes ago, binman said:

I can't recall a player be8ng specifically asked about loading, so this interview by Tony Leonard with Jake Lever caught my attention.

How you interpret Jake's response will probably depend on where you sit with loading, but it is intersting nonetheless.

From 4.13.

https://omny.fm/shows/3aw-is-football/jake-lever-joins-us-from-the-winning-rooms

Yeah, that was interesting although I wouldn’t think any player would admit to loading as it is admitting to ‘excuses’ in effect. So not surprised he downplayed the inference.

Interestingly, he said Goodwin was impressed with training for 10 weeks and that the impact his been late from training to game day. Does that mean he wasn’t impressed previous to that? 

Those banked wins in the start of the year are so curious to me now; were we playing well or just better on latent talent? Did PA and GWS really need to holistically change how they play to lessen the damage? Might have been intimidation through reputation.

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13 minutes ago, rpfc said:

Yeah, that was interesting although I wouldn’t think any player would admit to loading as it is admitting to ‘excuses’ in effect. So not surprised he downplayed the inference.

Interestingly, he said Goodwin was impressed with training for 10 weeks and that the impact his been late from training to game day. Does that mean he wasn’t impressed previous to that? 

Those banked wins in the start of the year are so curious to me now; were we playing well or just better on latent talent? Did PA and GWS really need to holistically change how they play to lessen the damage? Might have been intimidation through reputation.

My interpretation of what he said from about 3mins 40 on, was “goody always says there is a delay for the benefits from our good work at training to show on game day”  ie train hard for a month, then benefits a few weeks after that. 

“we have been training hard for a good 10 weeks” certainly interesting. Then a bit of a softener/downplay afterwards when he said “we always train hard” 

“We are a team that push the boundaries with training” also interesting. 

Edited by 1964_2
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48 minutes ago, binman said:

I can't recall a player be8ng specifically asked about loading, so this interview by Tony Leonard with Jake Lever caught my attention.

How you interpret Jake's response will probably depend on where you sit with loading, but it is intersting nonetheless.

From 4.13.

https://omny.fm/shows/3aw-is-football/jake-lever-joins-us-from-the-winning-rooms

I sincerely hope that discussions on ‘loading’ doesn’t get out too much into mainstream media.   

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7 minutes ago, Wodjathefirst said:

I sincerely hope that discussions on ‘loading’ doesn’t get out too much into mainstream media.   

Agree. As long as us “loaders” continue to be seen as nutters, who are just part of Binman’s cult we should be safe    :))

 

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7 minutes ago, 1964_2 said:

Agree. As long as us “loaders” continue to be seen as nutters, who are just part of Binman’s cult we should be safe    :))

 

I wish it was that easy, history would suggest  we have to keep Binman alive.  I believe it went a bit pear shaped when another cult leader many years was crucified, a few of his followers were  not long after then also taken out (and I’m not talking about being taken out for lunch!). 

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8 minutes ago, binman said:

Why?

Good question.  I expect that loading is not a ‘trade secret’ in the industry and as been suggested by others is also practiced by other teams (eg Geelong).  I’m purely guessing here- some teams would not be in a position to load because of where they are in their team building cycle / results in earlier games (eg Collingwood /Footscray).

I know I haven’t answered your question because I really can’t! I am desperately clutching at straws here with my next comment.  I just can’t imagine how mainstream media could handle it over a given period of time.  For example if they had said over the past  month or two that Melbourne was ‘loading’ and was effecting our game day performances it I guess would be viewed by others (depending on their perspectives as either 

a) poor excuse for losing games or

b) disrespectful for the teams that just beat us

And if it was reported as thus I can only imagine that Goody for example would have to say something like ‘no we are training hard at the moment but we are not losing or playing badly because we are in a loading phase’.  It would have short lifecycle (I’m guessing again)

I personally don’t have much respect for the media and I can’t see how they could maintain credible discussion for a sustained period of time.  On face value it would seem just up their alley, sprouting something contentious.  So to answer your question ‘why?’ I simply can’t!

Though I must add that when I mentioned to mates of mine who barrack for Collingwood that we only lost to them earlier in the season because we were loading, they saw me a being a bit of a nutter and a sore loser.  I am soooo looking forward to this coming Friday 

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46 minutes ago, binman said:

Why?

A shorter or alternate answer could be that if it is not discussed in the media, then supporters of other clubs would think that we are not that good (because of the loses that we incurred during the season proper) and are beatable.

So when we start winning again as we now have just begun, it makes winning just that little bit more sweeter - eg against Collingwood and Carlton in the next two weeks 🤞Bring it on

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I agree with all of the above.

I wish tbey did talk about it, as part of the footy media's job is to help fans make sense of what we are watching.

Even if they only touched on it as a potential variable, fans could take it into account when trying to make sense of why a team can go 10 zip, then say 50 50 for the next 10 games.

Fans could still reject the concept, but at the moment the narrative almost always circles back to a supposed weakness of the club being discussed- eg mentally weak, game plan worked out, complancey, lack of hunger, players not invested, drinking their own bathwater etc etc.

But leaving that aside, there is lots of intersting considerations - eg is it worth risking nor finishing top 4 by going too hard, is a particular game style disadvantaged more by fatigue than others, how do they message it, does the age of the squad matter, do some teams push through it better eyc etc.

The simple explanation of why the footy media don't discuss it is money. 

They (and the AFL) no doubt worry fans will switch off during this phase if they know the game quality will be impacted by loading.

Which it is, but it also means outcomes are more unpredictable- which is great for fans supporters non top 4 sides.

So I doubt discussing loading would actually impact the bottom line.

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28 minutes ago, binman said:

 

I wish tbey did talk about it, as part of the footy media's job is to help fans make sense of what we are watching.

 

I can’t imagine that’s what they are measuring when looking at whether they are successful or not. Causing emotional responses and creating discussion points that stir debate would have to be number one with a bullet. I wish they were interested in educating the fans but I don’t see it. It feels more like a soap opera than a sport at times

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