MELBOURNE

Three word analysis

Simply the best

What’s gone right

Barring the loss to Fremantle on the weekend, pretty much everything. There’s barely been one real concern for Melbourne so far this season, with the side looking well and truly the premiership favourites we thought they’d be heading into the season. It still doesn’t even feel like they’re that close to their best at the moment and still they’re a game clear on top of the ladder. Clayton Oliver continues to dominate, Luke Jackson continues to improve and the team’s defence is the best in the game. The draw will get tougher for them from here but they’ve passed virtually every test bar one this season, so it’s hard to see them falling from top spot based on what we’ve seen so far. No team punishes you more and denies you as much on turnover than the Dees.

What’s gone wrong

Steven May’s concussion on the weekend was far from ideal given his importance to the side and the Dockers reminded us the Dees are only human. Their efficiency going inside 50 has been lacking somewhat by their lofty standards. Also, this isn’t the Richmond side that had pressure as its hallmark; Melbourne is 17th in the competition for pressure applied. They break you in different ways, the Dees. Still, there isn’t a whole lot of concern for a side that looks to be building while still banking wins.

Contract and trade priorities

Luke Jackson is the big one, figuratively and literally. He’ll likely command a steep price and will attract interest from both West Australian sides. With Tim English about to re-sign, it means the interest will only grow, and the longer Jackson waits to sign the more worrying it becomes for the Dees. Angus Brayshaw is another member of the premiership core who is yet to commit beyond this year. Other than that there aren’t too many pressing contract issues. From a draft standpoint the club could definitely get further up, with their first pick at the moment No.36. They’ve been mentioned as a team with some interest in Port Adelaide’s Karl Amon.

Grade

A+

Fair summation

Surprised we are only 17th in the comp for pressure applied

18 minutes ago, BDA said:

Fair summation

Surprised we are only 17th in the comp for pressure applied

We have "allowed" more marks than eagles, kangaroos, bombers. A few oppositon teams have chipped it around in their back half leads to a low pressure rating.  I think that's the cause. 

That is a great report coming off a Premiership next three weeks will be decisive.!!

41 minutes ago, BDA said:

Fair summation

Surprised we are only 17th in the comp for pressure applied

Doesn’t surprise me; we just look like we are waiting more and being more patient and letting teams ‘crash against the rocks’ so to speak and the tide goes the other way. 

My read, and of course I may be wrong, is that this a tweak for the season to save our legs as it is unsustainable to do for 25 games a year again. But I say this with a warning - flirting with one’s form and game plan comes with the risk that it is difficult to ramp up again. 

I understand we have other ways to kill teams but pressure is a final winning trait.

2 hours ago, Demonland said:

Luke Jackson continues to improve

Disagree.

24 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Disagree.

He is dealing with Pressure on a weekly basis. 
he is improving. 
All Clubs watched BANG, BANG BANG BANG over summer on repeat 

2 hours ago, BDA said:

Fair summation

Surprised we are only 17th in the comp for pressure applied

We are no 1 for tackles inside 50. Which is a great stat to have

However, I don't think 2-way defensive running = pressure. And i think our two way running is still elite. 

Essendon should be F-

I think A+ is too generous given we have played mostly ordinary opposition and still have a lot of improvement left in us. I think A is about right. 

We will know a lot more after we play Sydney, Brisbane, Collingwood and Geelong.

31 minutes ago, layzie said:

Essendon should be F-

Hopefully they are F - - - - - for many years to come.

Times like this I am glad we lost last week.  If we won, the talk we would - the Unbeatable Demons, can anyone beat them?  will they go 22-0 etc.  although would not pay attention to this noise, some of it does seep in

After losing I am massively fired up to see us win this weekend, more than any week this year

Agree Dundee this is our first real hurdle to be able to respond to the challenges we really need to tweak what we are great at.!!

1 hour ago, Jaded No More said:

I think A+ is too generous given we have played mostly ordinary opposition and still have a lot of improvement left in us. I think A is about right. 

We will know a lot more after we play Sydney, Brisbane, Collingwood and Geelong.

Spot on. A+ is too generous.

Us and Brisbane have the toughest fixture on the run home, closely followed by Bulldogs and St Kilda in that exact order.

Excluding the bottom 6 sides starting from Hawthorn and below who won't be playing finals, Gold Coast have by far the easiest draw while Collingwood, Richmond and Geelong have the next best runs home in that exact order.

 

Edited June 2, 20223 yr by Bring-Back-Powell

1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Spot on. A+ is too generous.

Us and Brisbane have the toughest fixture on the run home, closely followed by Bulldogs and St Kilda in that exact order.

Excluding the bottom 6 sides starting from Hawthorn and below who won't be playing finals, Gold Coast have by far the easiest draw while Collingwood, Richmond and Geelong have the next best runs home in that exact order.

 

Geelong have 3 walkovers, but no other easy games.  5 games are against current top 8 sides with 3 of them tough games at GMBH plus away games against Gold Coast, Port and Richmond (mcg home game for cats) who are 1 and 2 games behind them. I’m not sure their draw is easy with that number of 8 point games (they play dogs 2x and saints as well).  They could miss the 8, but I hope they don’t so we have the satisfaction of beating them again.

It really surprised me that Lever was identified as the Demon https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2022-players-who-need-to-lift-from-every-club-biggest-ratings-drop-off-analysis-down-on-form/news-story/d818efb5dfa214c5aa637d5e5d594ff1

JAKE LEVER (MELBOURNE ) 2021 Games: 25 2021 Rating Points: 12.8 2022 Games: 7 2022 Rating Points: 7.2 Change -44%

The biggest drop off for Lever from 2021 has been his intercept marks (4.1 to 1.7) and intercept possessions (10.3 to 6.6), while as a result he’s recording less disposals overall. But still one of the premier defenders in the competition, Lever has set a much higher standard than most other defenders in the competition.

To my eye this 'drop off' hasn't been noticeable. 

Some could be attributed to his pre-season foot injury and the corked thigh a month or so ago both of which would affect his leap and speed to get to a contest.

But I'm inclined to think opps are trying to reduce his influence by not kicking high or isolating him away from their attacking lanes reducing the intercept opportunities.  

 imv there are various players I would have chosen before Lever. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to watch how the season pans out.  But tbh if the team continues playing the way we are one stat for one player doesn't amount to much.

4 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

It really surprised me that Lever was identified as the Demon https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2022-players-who-need-to-lift-from-every-club-biggest-ratings-drop-off-analysis-down-on-form/news-story/d818efb5dfa214c5aa637d5e5d594ff1

JAKE LEVER (MELBOURNE ) 2021 Games: 25 2021 Rating Points: 12.8 2022 Games: 7 2022 Rating Points: 7.2 Change -44%

The biggest drop off for Lever from 2021 has been his intercept marks (4.1 to 1.7) and intercept possessions (10.3 to 6.6), while as a result he’s recording less disposals overall. But still one of the premier defenders in the competition, Lever has set a much higher standard than most other defenders in the competition.

To my eye this 'drop off' hasn't been noticeable. 

Some could be attributed to his pre-season foot injury and the corked thigh a month or so ago both of which would affect his leap and speed to get to a contest.

But I'm inclined to think opps are trying to reduce his influence by not kicking high or isolating him away from their attacking lanes reducing the intercept opportunities.  

 imv there are various players I would have chosen before Lever. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to watch how the season pans out.  But tbh if the team continues playing the way we are one stat for one player doesn't amount to much.

He’s also had a foot injury, Covid and an ankle injury. 

5 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

He’s also had a foot injury, Covid and an ankle injury. 

🤔 My post noted his injuries:  "...attributed to his pre-season foot injury and the corked thigh a month or so ago...".

I was defending not critcising him.

Edited June 2, 20223 yr by Lucifers Hero

40 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

It really surprised me that Lever was identified as the Demon https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2022-players-who-need-to-lift-from-every-club-biggest-ratings-drop-off-analysis-down-on-form/news-story/d818efb5dfa214c5aa637d5e5d594ff1

JAKE LEVER (MELBOURNE ) 2021 Games: 25 2021 Rating Points: 12.8 2022 Games: 7 2022 Rating Points: 7.2 Change -44%

The biggest drop off for Lever from 2021 has been his intercept marks (4.1 to 1.7) and intercept possessions (10.3 to 6.6), while as a result he’s recording less disposals overall. But still one of the premier defenders in the competition, Lever has set a much higher standard than most other defenders in the competition.

To my eye this 'drop off' hasn't been noticeable. 

Some could be attributed to his pre-season foot injury and the corked thigh a month or so ago both of which would affect his leap and speed to get to a contest.

But I'm inclined to think opps are trying to reduce his influence by not kicking high or isolating him away from their attacking lanes reducing the intercept opportunities.  

 imv there are various players I would have chosen before Lever. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to watch how the season pans out.  But tbh if the team continues playing the way we are one stat for one player doesn't amount to much.

Intercept players rely on pressure up the field on the ball carrier.  Lever is always the player that is positioned to intercept the hack kick forward and last year we were like Richmond at their best. This year we are ranked 17th for pressure.

59 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

🤔 My post noted his injuries:  "...attributed to his pre-season foot injury and the corked thigh a month or so ago...".

I was defending not critcising him.

I know and I was also pointing out that he has not had a  clear run with injuries so their entire article makes no sense.

20 hours ago, rpfc said:

Doesn’t surprise me; we just look like we are waiting more and being more patient and letting teams ‘crash against the rocks’ so to speak and the tide goes the other way. 

My read, and of course I may be wrong, is that this a tweak for the season to save our legs as it is unsustainable to do for 25 games a year again. But I say this with a warning - flirting with one’s form and game plan comes with the risk that it is difficult to ramp up again. 

I understand we have other ways to kill teams but pressure is a final winning trait.

I agree, we seem to be reliant to an extent on implied pressure - that opposition teams seem to spend more time 'mucking around' with the ball against us when moving forward than other teams. like you said we look to be sitting back more, letting them over use it and then back ourselves in the back half to turn it over then move forward.

I actually think this would be one of the easier tweaks to make, and nearly then comes naturally in finals, when the pressure goes up so will the urgency and we'll nearly be forced to move the pressure up the field rather than letting other teams come to us. If by design I think it's perfect and, as we saw in last years finals, we have the players that can adapt to bringing pressure all over the ground - to mine that still makes us very scary. 

3 hours ago, Red and Blue realist said:

I agree, we seem to be reliant to an extent on implied pressure - that opposition teams seem to spend more time 'mucking around' with the ball against us when moving forward than other teams. like you said we look to be sitting back more, letting them over use it and then back ourselves in the back half to turn it over then move forward.

I actually think this would be one of the easier tweaks to make, and nearly then comes naturally in finals, when the pressure goes up so will the urgency and we'll nearly be forced to move the pressure up the field rather than letting other teams come to us. If by design I think it's perfect and, as we saw in last years finals, we have the players that can adapt to bringing pressure all over the ground - to mine that still makes us very scary. 

I does make sense but whenever we inevitably ramp up there will players aggressive and those that are passive from how they have played the last 4 months. 

The problem then is holes emerging that make it easier to transition out of our front half.

My mantra for coaching style and gameplan is whatever you do, everyone has to believe in it. It’s the connection I see as the main risk and I can see us dropping games in the last 6 rounds as we ramp it back up.

The selection of Lever here is just silly given is interrupted start.

Yes he is off 2021 by a fair degree but hello!  I feel he's slowly making up ground with each match.

Getting him back to somewhere near his 2021 best form before finals is as critical as say getting Salem back.

4 hours ago, rpfc said:

I does make sense but whenever we inevitably ramp up there will players aggressive and those that are passive from how they have played the last 4 months. 

The problem then is holes emerging that make it easier to transition out of our front half.

My mantra for coaching style and gameplan is whatever you do, everyone has to believe in it. It’s the connection I see as the main risk and I can see us dropping games in the last 6 rounds as we ramp it back up.

The beauty of the way the team is there's no doubt around the belief in the game plan, we've nearly gone at 'half rat power' for the first half of the season and have still dropped only 1 game. I know the draw is going to get harder, but the transition should be fairly straight forward I would think, we might not fully click in a few games but I fully expect by finals the pressure will be back off the chart, all over the ground, while our implied pressure will continue to cause teams all sorts of issues. Once our pressure is back up it'll create holes in the opposition that makes that transition to our front half so much easier.

1 hour ago, Red and Blue realist said:

The beauty of the way the team is there's no doubt around the belief in the game plan, we've nearly gone at 'half rat power' for the first half of the season and have still dropped only 1 game. I know the draw is going to get harder, but the transition should be fairly straight forward I would think, we might not fully click in a few games but I fully expect by finals the pressure will be back off the chart, all over the ground, while our implied pressure will continue to cause teams all sorts of issues. Once our pressure is back up it'll create holes in the opposition that makes that transition to our front half so much easier.

We will see. Flicking switches is a dangerous game tho. Sometimes it’s flickers for a bit, and sometimes it doesn’t come on when you need it to.