Top 8 Now Fixed - according to history

[daisycutter 29,616]

also called dustinophobia or martinophobia

Quote

Causes[edit]

Though the exact cause of ailurophobia is unknown, ailurophobes often trace their fear back to early in their childhood. This is a trend observed in many other specific phobias, especially those involving animals.^[9] One theory is that a singular traumatic incident, like being attacked by a cat or witnessing a cat attack someone else, can trigger the development of this phobia. Other theories as to the inception of ailurophobia include the individual observing another individual's fear, or being inundated with troubling information about the danger of cats.^[9]

Another explanation could be that humans are somewhat preconditioned to fear felines because big cats' ancestors preyed upon human's ancestors. This may be the origin of leophobia (fear of lions), tigriphobia (fear of tigers), leopardaliphobia (fear of leopards) and acynonixphobia (fear of cheetahs). Fearing these predators is rational because the danger they can represent, however fearing domestic cats is irrational, due to their small size.^[4][10]

 

[PaulRB 6,363]

1 hour ago, Deepfreeze said:

 

I took this snap to stir someone last season.

Suppose a few of these were 9 on the trot as opposed to 9-0

 

 

Nice that we could update it with...

"2021 PREMIERS - MELBOURNE

2022 PREMIERS - TBD"

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

22 hours ago, radar said:

Saw Gaza’s On The Couch 

Perth game not mentioned, but every other review features a “like Melbourne” or “except Melbourne” or “Melbourne lesson” 

Thanks for the post, but I'm struggling to see what it has to do with this topic.

14 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

If Rich play Carlton, Geelong, Saints or Melbourne in a final the game will be at the G.  They have shown they can win finals at the Gabba. 

With their draw they have a good chance of finishing 4th.  Even finishing outside the top 4, in 2020 they had to win play 4 finals to the flag.

I'm not all gung-ho for them winning finals or the GF just saying they have the ingredients to win a few, perhaps more than other teams except the Dees.  After all the GF is played at the G and neither Freo or Lions have a good record their. 

I did the ladder predictor today and had them finishing 7th with a 13-9 record which is 8-5 for the rest of the Season but what would I know?  You don't finish 4th unless you're at least 15-7 so they'd need to go at an impressive 10-3 to achieve that. They are yet to play 5 of the 7 sides above them in the 8 (and lost to the other 2- Melbourne & St Kilda) so that will be a challenge.

I'm not saying Richmond can't win away finals (2-1 record 2017-20) but I'm not sure what winning finals at the Gabba actually tells us. 2019-20 2-1 at the Gabba plus 1-0 at Carrara but 2 of those 4 were against Victorian teams. I do take your point about the MCG. Richmond & Melbourne are going to be the only Finals teams that play home there. I'm not saying Richmond can't win from outside the Top 4. I'm just saying they haven't actually done it yet so why is everyone so convinced they can?

9 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

Well yes, I have them most likely to finish with 19 wins, followed by 18 then 20. On average 18.4 wins.

Sorry Wheelo. That was just my poor attempt at being humourous. I understand how you arrived at something other than a whole number. Maybe we should use the median or mode rather than the mean. They're all averages 😄.

6 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

No it went to a top 6 in 1991 and top 8 in 1994. The AFL moved to the current final eight system in 2000 (from the McIntyre final eight system used from 1994-1999).

We long-suffering (up until last year) Melbourne fans are totally across different finals systems. I timed my run brilliantly (not). Born in 1960 so too young for the 1954-64 period but managed to catch about 20 years of no finals appearances (including 4 wooden spoons) pre-1987.

Page-McIntyre Final 4 System introduced 1931, McIntyre Final Five System introduced 1972, McIntyre 1st Final Six System introduced 1991, McIntyre 2nd Final Six System introduced 1992, McIntyre Final 8 System introduced 1994, AFL Final 8 System introduced 2000. I'm still not sure whether I'm totally over beating Adelaide in the 1st Round of the 1998 Finals and seeing them win the Premiership 3 weeks later.

Edited May 17, 2022 by Sydney_Demon
Typo

[radar 1,865]

AFL has since admitted they got the Adelaide final wrong

[Garbo 1,534]

On 5/15/2022 at 7:50 AM, Demon17 said:

Over the last 30 years, the Final 8 is settled by Round 9 and only the order of the 8 changes.

Thus we can say now the Pies, Power, Dogs and Hawks have missed out.

And the average annual movement in and out of the 8 is 2.8 teams, rounded up to 3. So this year is an outlier with 4 new teams from last year.

My argument there is that in 2021, the Dons were a false dawn and should not have made the 8, so they don't count this year as a failed finalist, and the Tiges are back where they belong talent-wise anway.

Great to see Freo make it..  And the Dogs slip up.  But again, never has a losing GF team made the GF the following year.

In other words when the Dees beat you, you stay beaten.

I can’t be bothered to look up every year but swans 2017 comes to mind they didn’t first get In the 8 until round 16

[Wrecker46 2,982]

I tried to multi bet the top 8 into each other and the TAB wouldn't let me. Said it was related.

It's not like betting on Fritch kicking 6 into Melbourne winning.

It seems seperate to me.

[Lucifers Hero 39,811]

On OTC this week Garry Lyon said Melbourne rate them as the hardest team we have played so far. 

It will be interesting to see if GCS can make a run for finals. 

They have winnable games:

• 2 X North
• 2 X Hawks
• 1 X Crows
• 1 X Ess
• 1 X Eagles

Slightly more challenging:

• 1 X Bulldogs
• 1 X Port
• 1 X Pies

Unlikely wins:

• 1 X Cats
• 1 X Rich
• 1 X Lions

Such a shame King isn't playing.  Would like to see them make the 8.  They seem a decent lot without the arrogance of their franchise sibling.

[Kent 2,909]

3 hours ago, Wrecker46 said:

I tried to multi bet the top 8 into each other and the TAB wouldn't let me. Said it was related.

It's not like betting on Fritch kicking 6 into Melbourne winning.

It seems seperate to me.

I also tried the same bet 

Couldnt get it placed for some reason

 

[titan_uranus 25,020]

58 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

On OTC this week Garry Lyon said Melbourne rate them as the hardest team we have played so far. 

It will be interesting to see if GCS can make a run for finals. 

They have winnable games:

• 2 X North
• 2 X Hawks
• 1 X Crows
• 1 X Ess
• 1 X Eagles

Slightly more challenging:

• 1 X Bulldogs
• 1 X Port
• 1 X Pies

Unlikely wins:

• 1 X Cats
• 1 X Rich
• 1 X Lions

Such a shame King isn't playing.  Would like to see them make the 8.  They seem a decent lot without the arrogance of their franchise sibling.

The thing about their fixture though is that of those three hard games, two of them (Geelong and Richmond) are at home.

They currently lead the competition for wins over current top 8 sides (they have three, tied with St Kilda). If they can sustain that sort of football for long enough this year, their fixture presents them with a golden chance to make finals.

Agree re: King. Chol-Casboult is doing surprisingly well for them, but if they had King they'd be a seriously difficult force given they are, I think, the AFL's number.1 side for time spent in forward half.

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

10 hours ago, Sydney_Demon said:

Sorry Wheelo. That was just my poor attempt at being humourous. I understand how you arrived at something other than a whole number. Maybe we should use the median or mode rather than the mean. They're all averages 😄.

Sorry, I did think that might be the case 😊 Median and mode would probably work for individual models, but it's harder with Squiggle given each model uses a different number of simulations. I'm always partial to mean 😉

10 hours ago, Sydney_Demon said:

We long-suffering (up until last year) Melbourne fans are totally across different finals systems. I timed my run brilliantly (not). Born in 1960 so too young for the 1954-64 period but managed to catch about 20 years of no finals appearances (including 4 wooden spoons) pre-1987.

Page-McIntyre Final 4 System introduced 1931, McIntyre Final Five System introduced 1972, McIntyre 1st Final Six System introduced 1991, McIntyre 2nd Final Six System introduced 1992, McIntyre Final 8 System introduced 1994, AFL Final 8 System introduced 2000. I'm still not sure whether I'm totally over beating Adelaide in the 1st Round of the 1998 Finals and seeing them win the Premiership 3 weeks later.

Yeah I'm not sure I'm totally over Adelaide winning that premiership either, but last year certainly helped!

I must admit, whilst the McIntyre final 8 system wasn't perfect, I did prefer certain aspects of it.

[titan_uranus 25,020]

17 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

Sorry, I did think that might be the case 😊 Median and mode would probably work for individual models, but it's harder with Squiggle given each model uses a different number of simulations. I'm always partial to mean 😉

Yeah I'm not sure I'm totally over Adelaide winning that premiership either, but last year certainly helped!

I must admit, whilst the McIntyre final 8 system wasn't perfect, I did prefer certain aspects of it.

Out of interest, which aspects did you prefer?

I struggle to identify a way in which the McIntyre system was better than the current system.

[DubDee 25,868]

I predict Port will replace the Tigers in the 8 as the only change. 

Tigers are not the same team as 2020. They are 14-16 since then. 

they will probably beat the bombers this week but then expect 4 straight losses

[Watson11 2,240]

1 minute ago, DubDee said:

I predict Port will replace the Tigers in the 8 as the only change. 

Tigers are not the same team as 2020. They are 14-16 since then. 

they will probably beat the bombers this week but then expect 4 straight losses

I agree.  Richmond currently are ranked 18 for conceding scores from inside 50s which is a pretty impressive effort considering Essendon, West Coast, and North are better.  As soon as they play a decent defence they are toast.  The 31 to 14 scoring shots against us is a true reflection of where they are at.

Port also made 2 adjustments to game style 4 weeks ago that seem to be working and since then are conceding less goals per inside 50 than us. They have played some average teams though so this week will test out their new style properly.

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

2 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Out of interest, which aspects did you prefer?

I struggle to identify a way in which the McIntyre system was better than the current system.

The main thing I liked was that the probability of winning the premiership was more in line with ladder position. Currently, the only advantage to finishing 1st over 4th or 5th over 8th is the home advantage and there's a big drop off from 4th to 5th. I think my feelings probably stem from 2004 when Melbourne lost to Essendon in the elimination final! 😂

I am not advocating going back to that system though.

Source: https://researchbank.swinburne.edu.au/file/ca205430-48c0-4721-8dd7-b05b36f4df8b/1/PDF (Published version).pdf

[Demon17 5,188]

On 5/17/2022 at 2:54 PM, Katrina Dee Fan said:

Sorry to be pedantic, but the top 8 system didn't start until 2000 :) in 1994 they went to a top 6 (prior to that it was a top 5 for a period of time after much of the competition it being a top 4).

 

Sorry to be pedantic but in 1994 the Top 8 started.

west coast, Blues, North,  cats, dogs, hawks, DEES and pies in that order, then started off with 4 Qualifying finals.

Unless the AFL Tables site is wrong of course.

Edited May 18, 2022 by Demon17

[Demon17 5,188]

On 5/18/2022 at 3:57 AM, Garbo said:

I can’t be bothered to look up every year but swans 2017 comes to mind they didn’t first get In the 8 until round 16

Good pick up Garbo.  There were a couple of outliers I missed but odds of change still a few chances out of 240 in that time. 

Its like the AA team. We all have players who should be selcted, but then the question is who do you then drop. I reckon the 8 now has the best 8 teams in it.

Like for Ed Langdon,  - should have been AA last year for sure, but who goes out?

If the AA team was picked on position, which it isn't, then Ed's a certainty this year.

[layzie 33,805]

On 5/18/2022 at 9:51 AM, WheeloRatings said:

The main thing I liked was that the probability of winning the premiership was more in line with ladder position. Currently, the only advantage to finishing 1st over 4th or 5th over 8th is the home advantage and there's a big drop off from 4th to 5th. I think my feelings probably stem from 2004 when Melbourne lost to Essendon in the elimination final! 😂

I am not advocating going back to that system though.

Source: https://researchbank.swinburne.edu.au/file/ca205430-48c0-4721-8dd7-b05b36f4df8b/1/PDF (Published version).pdf

There were some good aspects about the McIntyre system but probably a few more negative ones in my opinion. I did like how the top 4 teams got a home final and the ranking system would at least give teams around that 3rd to 6th mark a chance but when the flaws were exposed they were badly exposed. Beating the reigning premiers in 98 and then having to rely on two road wins by St Kilda and West Coast didn't seem right. it leaves too many things up to the gods.

On the flip side the next year seeing Carlton get completely bathed by Brisbane in a 3rd vs 6th in the qualifying final which sent Bris to a semi against the Dogs and Carlton to a semi against West Coast at the MCG after West Coast WON from 5th against the Dogs the week before on that very ground! We all know what happened next.

This system isn't perfect but it's streets ahead of that one in my view. I know you're not saying to go back to it but that's my take :) 

[Sir Why You Little 37,038]

3 hours ago, Demon17 said:

Sorry to be pedantic but in 1994 the Top 8 started.

west coast, Blues, North,  cats, dogs, hawks, DEES and pies in that order, then started off with 4 Qualifying finals.

Unless the AFL Tables site is wrong of course.

It cannot happen 

AFL Tables being wrong!!!!

[Watson11 2,240]

7 hours ago, Demon17 said:

Good pick up Garbo.  There were a couple of outliers I missed but odds of change still a few chances out of 240 in that time. 

@Demon17 I admire your persistence in your theory but just a couple of other outliers of sides that played finals after being outside the 8 after round 9.

2021 GWS and Essendon

2020 Pies

2019 Bulldogs and Essendon

2018 Pies, Hawks, GWS

2017 Essendon (as well as Sydney)

2015 Dogs and north

2014 Tigers and Essendon

2013 Tigers, Pies, Port

2012 Geelong, Freo, North

2011 Saints

2010 Hawks

2009 Pies, Crows, Carlton

2008 Saints

etc etc

[Sir Why You Little 37,038]

Because meth coke, North, Essendrug and Port have all been bad Starters, there are a lot of Cheap wins this year. Thus the 8 will probably take longer to sort out than usual. 
15 sides can still make it at this stage 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

On 5/18/2022 at 9:51 AM, WheeloRatings said:

The main thing I liked was that the probability of winning the premiership was more in line with ladder position. Currently, the only advantage to finishing 1st over 4th or 5th over 8th is the home advantage and there's a big drop off from 4th to 5th. I think my feelings probably stem from 2004 when Melbourne lost to Essendon in the elimination final! 😂

I am not advocating going back to that system though.

Source: https://researchbank.swinburne.edu.au/file/ca205430-48c0-4721-8dd7-b05b36f4df8b/1/PDF (Published version).pdf

I love that Swinburne paper! I think it's pretty clear from this table that the McIntyre system is more equitable than the current system. But at the end of the day the one big selling point of the current system is that each team is ultimately in charge of it's own destiny and it's easy for fans to understand how it works. The big drop-off from 4 to 5 is tough but frankly the reason Melbourne finished 5th in 2004 and ultimately lost to 8th team Essendon was  because we lost the last 4 games of the season after being top and a game clear after Round 18. Entirely our own fault that we didn't benefit from being in the Top 4.

As you know, the above percentages are overstated for lower teams compared to reality because they don't take into account home ground advantage (nor of course the obvious fact that higher teams are generally better-performed).

I've had a look at recent finals performances. Prior to 2021 the minor premiers hadn't won the Premiership since 2013. Despite that the minor premier has won 7 of the past 22 (since 2000) , 2nd & 3rd teams also 7 and the only other winner was Western Bulldogs who came from 7th in 2016 (but were a lot better than the average 7th team with a 15-7 H&A record). This seems pretty counter-intuitive because at face value 1 & 2 should have equal advantage, then 3 & 4, etc. Why has no-one come from 4th?

But thinking it through, 2 & 3 have a tougher game in the QF but the winner usually has an easier game against 4 in the PF before going on to the GF. 1 normally wins the QF against 4, but then usually has a tougher game against 2 or 3 in the PF, before going on to the GF. 4 has to play the best team away in the QF which it usually loses, then come back through a SF to play 2 or 3 away in a PF. Losing QF teams hardly ever lose to teams from 5-8 in SFs, as they are playing at home and in any case are generally better teams. But again it's toughest for 4 as they have just had  a tough (losing) match to 1 and are usually playing 5 which are close in ranking to them (a case in point: Hawthorn vs Melbourne SF in 2018). 2 or 3 has the luxury of playing 6 or 7. 1 is generally too well-performed to have much trouble with 5 or 8.

So in a nutshell it's important to finish Top 3, rather than Top 4. Of course this is further complicated by not wanting to finish 3rd if the 2nd team is Interstate. I appreciate none of this is overly scientific but it make sense to me at least! 😄

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

On 5/18/2022 at 9:15 AM, Watson11 said:

Port also made 2 adjustments to game style 4 weeks ago that seem to be working and since then are conceding less goals per inside 50 than us. They have played some average teams though so this week will test out their new style properly.

But doesn't that include the Cairns game against St Kilda? In those conditions it was impossible for either side to score goals.

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

9 hours ago, Sydney_Demon said:

I love that Swinburne paper! I think it's pretty clear from this table that the McIntyre system is more equitable than the current system. But at the end of the day the one big selling point of the current system is that each team is ultimately in charge of it's own destiny and it's easy for fans to understand how it works. The big drop-off from 4 to 5 is tough but frankly the reason Melbourne finished 5th in 2004 and ultimately lost to 8th team Essendon was  because we lost the last 4 games of the season after being top and a game clear after Round 18. Entirely our own fault that we didn't benefit from being in the Top 4.

As you know, the above percentages are overstated for lower teams compared to reality because they don't take into account home ground advantage (nor of course the obvious fact that higher teams are generally better-performed).

I've had a look at recent finals performances. Prior to 2021 the minor premiers hadn't won the Premiership since 2013. Despite that the minor premier has won 7 of the past 22 (since 2000) , 2nd & 3rd teams also 7 and the only other winner was Western Bulldogs who came from 7th in 2016 (but were a lot better than the average 7th team with a 15-7 H&A record). This seems pretty counter-intuitive because at face value 1 & 2 should have equal advantage, then 3 & 4, etc. Why has no-one come from 4th?

But thinking it through, 2 & 3 have a tougher game in the QF but the winner usually has an easier game against 4 in the PF before going on to the GF. 1 normally wins the QF against 4, but then usually has a tougher game against 2 or 3 in the PF, before going on to the GF. 4 has to play the best team away in the QF which it usually loses, then come back through a SF to play 2 or 3 away in a PF. Losing QF teams hardly ever lose to teams from 5-8 in SFs, as they are playing at home and in any case are generally better teams. But again it's toughest for 4 as they have just had  a tough (losing) match to 1 and are usually playing 5 which are close in ranking to them (a case in point: Hawthorn vs Melbourne SF in 2018). 2 or 3 has the luxury of playing 6 or 7. 1 is generally too well-performed to have much trouble with 5 or 8.

So in a nutshell it's important to finish Top 3, rather than Top 4. Of course this is further complicated by not wanting to finish 3rd if the 2nd team is Interstate. I appreciate none of this is overly scientific but it make sense to me at least! 😄

Yeah Melbourne certainly had their fate in their own hands in 2004 and should never have finished 5th.

The paper goes into the home ground advantage as you would've seen but I guess the main thing it illustrates is the drop off from 4th to 5th. This is evident when looking at Preliminary Final appearances with 3rd and 4th making the PF 18 times compared to 5th and 6th three and four times respectively. This is of course what you want - the best four teams playing in the Prelims.

As you have noted though, there has been a clear difference in finals results between 3rd and 4th. I have had a look at (since 2000) how far teams finishing in each ladder position made it in the finals and (in addition to not winning a Premiership) 4th has only made the Grand Final three times compared to 15, 12 and 11 for 1st, 2nd and 3rd respectively.

Interestingly, 5th has a 12-10 record against 8th in Elimination Finals but 6th has a 14-8 record against 7th.

The results for the top 4 based on the outcome of the Qualifying Finals are interesting. Teams in 3rd and 4th have each lost the QF 16 times and both ladder positions have made it to the Prelim 12 times. Teams in 4th after losing the QF have a 1-11 record in the PF whereas teams in 3rd after losing the QF have a 5-7 record in the PF and 4-1 record in Grand Finals.

Your hypothesis of 4th having a tougher finals draw does make sense and is certainly backed by the numbers.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,755]

18 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Because meth coke, North, Essendrug and Port have all been bad Starters, there are a lot of Cheap wins this year. Thus the 8 will probably take longer to sort out than usual. 
15 sides can still make it at this stage 

Do you think this year is particularly different from others? Don't you think there are "cheap wins" every year?

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

22 hours ago, layzie said:

On the flip side the next year seeing Carlton get completely bathed by Brisbane in a 3rd vs 6th in the qualifying final which sent Bris to a semi against the Dogs and Carlton to a semi against West Coast at the MCG after West Coast WON from 5th against the Dogs the week before on that very ground! We all know what happened next.

I agree with your points, although that West Coast v Carlton game was only played at the MCG due to the agreement that a match had to be played at the MCG each week of finals. West Coast was the designated home team in that match.