My Round 5 Preview and Prediction

[CHF 2,743]

4-0

4-zero

4- nil

4-zip

4 – nada

I do like the look of that. The 4 is so important as is the figure 16 for the points we have thus far. I also like the number 8 which is the points break we have over a number of the pre-season ‘contenders’.

And there is 2 which is our position on the ladder.

4 rounds, 4 wins and 16 premiership points in the bank.

I watched it live via streaming and a few times I found myself thinking back to my childhood. As a young lad I just loved to go to the Saturday matinee that was on at the local cinema with my mates during the summer holidays. There was always a really good B grade adventure movie on. A western, a pirate saga or a good war story. All good, but my favourite was always the Musketeers. Damn they were good. Always having fun, Always getting into problem places only to be helped out by one of their other three mates. The backyard games after a Musketeers movie would find us with our sword sticks in hand giving a battle cry of “ALL FOR ONE – ONE FOR ALL!!” followed by a charge into Mum’s flowerbed to decapitate the hydrangeas. God, I got into trouble for that.

The Melbourne Musketeers out played the Geelong Flowerbeds in Round 4. We had a musketeer troop in each area of the ground. They supported each other, exerted the pressure needed, were well lead and looked good doing it.

It was another 4 points, but I find these points the sweetest of the season so far.

And so, to the Round 5 encounter with the Hawks at the G on Sunday afternoon. What to say about the Hawks? Well, they have not been great so far this season. In all truth, I have to admit that I have not followed them all that closely. Saw a little of their game yesterday and while they have a couple of handy performers, they also have a lot of ordinary performers. Clarkson did a great job as a rookie senior coach when he first went there but personally, I think he has run his course. I look at them and see a very ordinary list playing to expectations.

The facts:

We are coming off a win at the G against the Flowerbeds - Advantage us.

We still do not look to be playing to our potential – Advantage them

They had a loss over in WA and have the flights to contend with. - Advantage us

Howe injured for them and Lewis rubbed out, May out for us. - No advantage either way (maybe a bit for them with our loss of May)

Problem areas of the game for us (not sure that this is the right terminology given the wins we have had):

After four matches this season we are seeing a very different team performing in the red and blue than was running around last year. My observations are that the players seem to be very clear on their primary roles, playing them confidently and executing well. They also look to be responding to the on-field situation with more awareness. Well done to the coaching staff if this is the case as they look to have made the message simple and straightforward. A bit like the way we are playing at the moment.

Defence, I was a bit worried about in the first quarter when Lever dropped a couple of simple marks that he would normally snaffle. However, once May went off early in the second, Lever rose to the occasion and did not just cut out errors from his game but took the leadership role in that area of the ground and did a great job with his troop of Musketeers. Next week will test our structure down back with the introduction of a new tall defender into the system. Looks as if it will be Petty and I do not mind that. I know I am down on Jetta a bit but I think Clarkson is just the sort of opposition coach that will come up with a plan to exploit Jetta’s limitations. Loved the way that they adjusted to May’s absence. Hunt is in great form.

Hawks have a few good players in the middle but they will have a problem or three covering all of Oliver, Petracca and Viney and getting their own drive from the center. O’meara and Mitchell are the main threats in the middle and they will need to work hard to dictate terms. If we get the ascendancy there and put them on the back foot so they are reactive rather than proactive then that is the game right there. These three along with the support players are doing the job very well. Langdon is a great pickup for us and, as someone on this board observed, he and Hunt seem to feed off each other and I love the sight of the two of them running the wing.

Max and Luke sharing the ruck duties is working well. The fixtures could not have been better for us with the teams we have met so far having not a lot of ruck talent to go against us. This has allowed Max to move around the ground as required covering defence as required and also moving forward to give an extra dimension to the forward structure. It has also allowed Luke to get some good experience and time in the ruck.

If the mids keep to the Musketeer’s philosophy and play well and support each other, then we should dominate this area.

Now for the forwards……. We have to include discussion of them you know…..

The good; we kicked a winning score last week. Fristch with 4 (there is that number again… Fristch to get 5 this week?)

The bad; This is a tough one…… The bad (for Geelong and I hope for Hawks) our forward pressure across the forward 50.

The ugly; Fristch’s hair

Good to be in the situation where our two missing key forwards are back playing and we are in no rush to get them back in the team. What a luxury it is to be able to nurture them to full fitness via Casey.  I will be interested to see who the poor man’s Jayden hunt is sent to cover. Frost on TMac, Fristch? I just see our troop of forward Musketeer’s having too much flexibility for the Hawks defence. We have pressure forwards to tackle and harass, we have a lot of flexibility to rotate players through there to get the matchup we want to try and exploit and we are getting more accurate.

Last week I predicted a 3 goal win and later revised it upwards to 5 goals and we won by 4. This week I do not want to get ahead of myself so I am going conservative and predicting a win to the Dees by 5 goals.

The bandwagon is parked in the driveway, the red and blue livery polished to perfection and the bathwater steamer bubbling away. There are plenty of vacant seats on board at the moment but I am sure with 5-0 against our name the seats will fill fast.

 

“All for one and one for all!”

[Return to Glory 8,443]

CHF, acknowledging I'm too paranoid when it comes to the Dees, I genuinely see this as a big danger match for us. We can't allow Mitchell to run around without any pressure or i could see us getting touched up. Hence, the paranoia

[Pickett2Jackson 3,904]

We will get off the chain against the lowly bottom 4 Hawthorn and pummel them by 80 odd points

[CHF 2,743]

40 minutes ago, Return to Glory said:

CHF, acknowledging I'm too paranoid when it comes to the Dees, I genuinely see this as a big danger match for us. We can't allow Mitchell to run around without any pressure or i could see us getting touched up. Hence, the paranoia

Yeah RtG, I can fully understand your trepidation. I also agree with you vision of Mitchell and the influence he can have but so far this season we have not been deterred from playing the game the way we want to. We have to a great extent imposed ourselves on the games we have played and done so as a team. 

It will take a team effort across the ground from all players to beat us and I do not see the Hawks having that depth of commitment so far this season. 

 

[kev martin 9,951]

An important game for us.

We need to continue our winning momentum. 

Lose and we play the Tige's with our colours lowered. Win and we will have a good chance against them.

Hate to see us go 4 and 2, after a great start.

Clark is a smart coach. It won't be easy. Hopefully our brain trust can predict his plan, as well as change ours on the run, so as to not give them a sniff.

I should have confidence, but we all know,  MFCSS.

Really we should win easily. 

Our effort, tackling pressure, swarm of runners, less clangers (except for a few dropped marks), breaking lines, speed of ball movement, marks in 50 (attack and defence), forcing the opposition to play defensive against us, flexible game plans, nullifying dangerous opposition players, good decision making, our best 6-10 players all up and about, the confidence, getting plenty of looks at scores, pressure for positions, 2nd game at our spiritual home in a row (tigers game will make it 3), we are fit, strong and smart, creative play makes us unpredictable, nothing like training with a smile, we have the right support staff, Casey training facilities appear to be helping, not much going against us at the moment (May is our first real hurdle, not including BB), if we take our opportunities to score goals more often and hold all our simple marks we have it.

Go Dees.

Edited April 12, 2021 by kev martin

[Dame Gaga 2,453]

I agree with the views about the team effort. Being at the ground yesterday, I saw groups of our players getting together if Geelong goaled, before the centre bounce, talking it out and supporting each other. I haven't noticed this before. It was heartening to watch. You don't get to see these things on the TV coverage. 

For the first time in a long time I have a good feeling about the team. They really do work for each other. 

Should defeat Hawthorn. I will be disappointed if we don't after what I saw yesterday.

[Diamond_Jim 12,598]

Remember

It was this game that started the... Is Goodwin the Right Guy thread (and rightly so )

An important one

Dees by 32

[Greendale 350]

I'm expecting more of the same. Hawks to challenge at times throughout the game, but for us to hold our nerve and win without great threat. 5 goal win.

[PaulRB 6,392]

4 goal lead for 4 quarters = 16 goal win.

BOG: Aden Yze (Clarko’s prodigy and nemeses)

Go Demons

[Garbo 1,539]

We looked absolutely stuffed after the game, some of the younger and older players are really going to feel it next game, this is just the start of a long campaign, we are not even 1/6th of the way there. Goodwin needs to perhaps tempt fate against a weaker opposition this week and rotate out a few of the players if they aren’t 100% good to go and get them cherry ripe for the Tigers game. We have the perfect start now we can afford to look slightly ahead rather than week to week. Welcome to the be league boys.

Edited April 12, 2021 by Garbo

[BDA 22,759]

7 hours ago, Pickett2Jackson said:

We will get off the chain against the lowly bottom 4 Hawthorn and pummel them by 80 odd points

Settle down P2J. Don't you realise we're trying to keep a lid on things ?

[BDA 22,759]

8 hours ago, Return to Glory said:

CHF, acknowledging I'm too paranoid when it comes to the Dees, I genuinely see this as a big danger match for us. We can't allow Mitchell to run around without any pressure or i could see us getting touched up. Hence, the paranoia

You should take a look at on the couch from last night. Our pressure stats are off the charts. No way Mitchell or Hawks are allowed to saunter around the G nest weekend. We'll bring the heat. I've no worries on that score.

What i do worry about is our goal kicking. We're not putting teams away so may keep the Hawks in the game due to poor conversion. Despite that i reckon we'll win by 5 goals or thereabouts

[BDA 22,759]

3 hours ago, Garbo said:

We looked absolutely stuffed after the game, some of the younger and older players are really going to feel it next game, this is just the start of a long campaign, we are not even 1/6th of the way there. Goodwin needs to perhaps tempt fate against a weaker opposition this week and rotate out a few of the players if they aren’t 100% good to go and get them cherry ripe for the Tigers game. We have the perfect start now we can afford to look slightly ahead rather than week to week. Welcome to the be league boys.

Never tinker with form.

Jetta and Jones are the only players that will need to be managed during the year but neither showed any signs of weariness

Our fitness levels are good with the best in the business Burgo overseeing the conditioning of the players. We’re 4 games in, players can’t be tired yet. They can rest during the mid season break.

[Wells 11 5,408]

I reckon the hawks may play Frost on Fritsch ( try saying that quickly)  and not cover Jackson so strongly. If that happens he’s going to need to stand up , hold those marks and kick straight to throw the tactical game back our way.

[Josh 1,420]

8 hours ago, Pickett2Jackson said:

We will get off the chain against the lowly bottom 4 Hawthorn and pummel them by 80 odd points

I agree, Petracca to kick 6

[Lil_red_fire_engine 11,217]

This is to me is THE danger game, The weeks press has turned its focus to how great we are playing and that we are likely the real deal. We would have set ourselves for Geelong and looked pretty cooked when the siren sounded. I am worried that we will have our mind set for Anzac Eve and forget the one in the middle. We are against the craftiest coach in the game and whilst the Hawks are not much on paper they have some quality across the lines particularly midfield that need to be respected. 

[leave it to deever 17,511]

1 hour ago, Wells 11 said:

I reckon the hawks may play Frost on Fritsch ( try saying that quickly)  and not cover Jackson so strongly. If that happens he’s going to need to stand up , hold those marks and kick straight to throw the tactical game back our way.

I get the feeling LJ is going to have a Kozzie game and kick 4.

[leave it to deever 17,511]

19 minutes ago, big_red_fire_engine said:

This is to me is THE danger game, The weeks press has turned its focus to how great we are playing and that we are likely the real deal. We would have set ourselves for Geelong and looked pretty cooked when the siren sounded. I am worried that we will have our mind set for Anzac Eve and forget the one in the middle. We are against the craftiest coach in the game and whilst the Hawks are not much on paper they have some quality across the lines particularly midfield that need to be respected. 

Lets me honest. We are Dees supporters. They are ALL danger games.

From the top team to the lowest us Dees fans are in constant angst.

And while I should have been panicking while geelong were surging in the 3rd  though I was a tad worried....for some strange reason I really thought we would win out.

What are these strange emotions?

I get the feeling the players certainly believed they would.

Yes Im worried about his game but not because I think we will take it lightly or the hawks are remotely better.

Im now worried because I dont want this ecstasy of winning to stop.

 

[Demon17 5,188]

11 hours ago, CHF said:

4-0

I watched it live via streaming and a few times I found myself thinking back to my childhood. As a young lad I just loved to go to the Saturday matinee that was on at the local cinema with my mates during the summer holidays. There was always a really good B grade adventure movie on. A western, a pirate saga or a good war story. All good, but my favourite was always the Musketeers. Damn they were good. Always having fun, Always getting into problem places only to be helped out by one of their other three mates. The backyard games after a Musketeers movie would find us with our sword sticks in hand giving a battle cry of “ALL FOR ONE – ONE FOR ALL!!” followed by a charge into Mum’s flowerbed to decapitate the hydrangeas. God, I got into trouble for that.

 

. Langdon is a great pickup for us 

 

If the mids keep to the Musketeer’s philosophy and play well and support each other, then we should dominate this area.

 

“All for one and one for all!”

As usual a lovely piece of prose CHF and a classy nod to Alexander Dumas.

You missed a commentary on pressure acts although alluded to it in the forward line and after the brilliant analysis on On the Couch last night, (those stats are covered on another post) I like Gerard Healy am convinced the team is now onto something and will just get better .

I'd pay to see Fritsch vs Frost clash as a bonus this week.

[titan_uranus 25,020]

46 minutes ago, big_red_fire_engine said:

This is to me is THE danger game, The weeks press has turned its focus to how great we are playing and that we are likely the real deal. We would have set ourselves for Geelong and looked pretty cooked when the siren sounded. I am worried that we will have our mind set for Anzac Eve and forget the one in the middle. We are against the craftiest coach in the game and whilst the Hawks are not much on paper they have some quality across the lines particularly midfield that need to be respected. 

I can't help but share the concern.

There is plenty of evidence so far this year to suggest these sorts of concerns are unfounded. But still.

They used Worpel in a tag on Brayshaw vs Fremantle so I expect him to do the same against Oliver or Petracca. The rest of their midfield is good on paper but not performing: Mitchell, O'Meara, Wingard, Phillips.

My main concern is turnovers across half forward with Jiath and Frost rebounding with pace. They butcher the ball, but we've looked our worst this year (vs St Kilda and GWS) when our opponent takes us on with foot speed through the corridor. I expect Jiath and Frost to attempt that against us.

[Superunknown 4,217]

This was a great OP until the comment about Fritzkrieg's hair. That is some epic coiffure right there my man. Better than some of the feral mullets getting about. Many players could learn from Fritsch's style.

[Garbo 1,539]

3 hours ago, Better days ahead said:

Never tinker with form.

Jetta and Jones are the only players that will need to be managed during the year but neither showed any signs of weariness

Our fitness levels are good with the best in the business Burgo overseeing the conditioning of the players. We’re 4 games in, players can’t be tired yet. They can rest during the mid season break.

Good teams will manage players throughout the year outside the bye, it’s a marathon not a sprint. If we don’t strategically manage players it will blow up in our face sooner or later, either via a spate of soft tissue injuries or just a collapse in form. I’m not saying rest Gawn and trac or players of that ilk now they are in there prime and don’t need it, but the under 22 and Over 30’s will.

Edit also just to add Most teams by now are naturally doing this either via forced changes from injury or due to a loss and needing to change things up. Starting perfectly as we have there has been no need 

Edited April 12, 2021 by Garbo

[DubDee 25,921]

Time to start trusting the team, we have earnt it over the past 4 games. Challenged at times but we never really looked like losing any of the 4 games and all teams have been in 6-12 range - not rubbish teams.

The Hawks without Gunston, Sicicly, Lewis and Day should be an easy win. They are still well coached and have a couple of good mids so we will need to turn up but we should be looking at percentage here 

they have some run off HB which is probably the only concern.

[BDA 22,759]

2 hours ago, Garbo said:

Good teams will manage players throughout the year outside the bye, it’s a marathon not a sprint. If we don’t strategically manage players it will blow up in our face sooner or later, either via a spate of soft tissue injuries or just a collapse in form. I’m not saying rest Gawn and trac or players of that ilk now they are in there prime and don’t need it, but the under 22 and Over 30’s will.

Edit also just to add Most teams by now are naturally doing this either via forced changes from injury or due to a loss and needing to change things up. Starting perfectly as we have there has been no need 

I agree we should manage the older players

In addition to risking form I’m not sure resting players this early sends the right message to the playing group. Resting players against the Hawks could encourage complacency and subconsciously the team could switch off. Classic Melbourne.

The group has shown a lot more maturity this year so maybe they can handle rotation without impacting attitude but I’d be very nervous.

The players were spent at the end of the game but that’s as it should be. The good teams back up week after week. We should as well.  As I said the old legs of Jetta and Jones will need to be managed (so i agree with you there) but unless players have niggles they should not be rested this early imv.

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

Slightly off topic but Jones will not be rested unless injured. Supporters are dreaming if they think he'll be playing his 300th in Tassie. 

Amazing start for us, must look forward to the next block of four games. A long long campaign as many have already stated. 

Frankly, I think we're only inaccuracy off a big big win. It seems our entire 22 have bought in to a really simple game style and I'm loving what I'm seeing. Our effort, tackling, selflessness and team first approach has been unbelievable. If we bring that again, we'll have no problem against Hawthorn. And if we can get deadly in front of goal and stop being wasteful, we will win by 50 plus. 

Must continue to bring the same level of energy to every game. The bar has been set. Forget the ladder position dees. Your intent will dictate the win and loss sheet. 

Up the redlegs. 

 

Ps, the inclusion of Yze and Chocco simply can't be underestimated. Changed the club.