Free Kick Differential 2021

[jnrmac 20,053]

19 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

There is a significant amount of talk in here about bias and conspiracies and favourability etc.

I'd be really interested in as deep an analysis of free kick counts as possible. Why do the Dogs and Eagles, for example, get so many more than their opponents, and why does Richmond concede so many?

The two main times a free kick is awarded are tackles and marking contests. As to tackles, most free kicks go to the player with the ball (holding the man, push in the back, high contact, tripping, dangerous tackle) as the tackler only has one option (holding the ball). Similarly in a marking contest we know that the player in front is going to get free kicks for holds, pushes in the back or high contact a lot more than the player behind.

Is it really that fanciful to wonder whether the Dogs get more free kicks because, for example, they're first to the ball more often than their opponent, and therefore get more free kicks from bad tackles? Or that their key position players hold front position more often and therefore get free kicks more than other clubs?

Similarly with Richmond they've regularly played with aggression in their era of dominance and have pushed the envelope, giving away professional free kicks where needed as well. Is it that surprising then that they concede more frees than they get?

I have no data on any of this but it's a topic that is missing from this thread, which focuses solely on incompetence, bias and corruption.

Is there a statistics page of frees?

ie A breakdown of what the frees were for?

That would be the frst step in analysing it...

[Jumping Jack Clennett 1,777]

21 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

There is a significant amount of talk in here about bias and conspiracies and favourability etc.

I'd be really interested in as deep an analysis of free kick counts as possible. Why do the Dogs and Eagles, for example, get so many more than their opponents, and why does Richmond concede so many?

The two main times a free kick is awarded are tackles and marking contests. As to tackles, most free kicks go to the player with the ball (holding the man, push in the back, high contact, tripping, dangerous tackle) as the tackler only has one option (holding the ball). Similarly in a marking contest we know that the player in front is going to get free kicks for holds, pushes in the back or high contact a lot more than the player behind.

Is it really that fanciful to wonder whether the Dogs get more free kicks because, for example, they're first to the ball more often than their opponent, and therefore get more free kicks from bad tackles? Or that their key position players hold front position more often and therefore get free kicks more than other clubs?

Similarly with Richmond they've regularly played with aggression in their era of dominance and have pushed the envelope, giving away professional free kicks where needed as well. Is it that surprising then that they concede more frees than they get?

I have no data on any of this but it's a topic that is missing from this thread, which focuses solely on incompetence, bias and corruption.

I think the fallacy in the reasoning above about the Bulldogs is apparent when the number of possessions is taken into account.

The Bulldogs often have a large differential greatly in their favour, even when the opposition has more possessions.So the man with the ball in the opposition is being penalised. They must be far better tacklers than any other side.

 

[CHF 2,718]

23 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

There is a significant amount of talk in here about bias and conspiracies and favourability etc.

I'd be really interested in as deep an analysis of free kick counts as possible. Why do the Dogs and Eagles, for example, get so many more than their opponents, and why does Richmond concede so many?

The two main times a free kick is awarded are tackles and marking contests. As to tackles, most free kicks go to the player with the ball (holding the man, push in the back, high contact, tripping, dangerous tackle) as the tackler only has one option (holding the ball). Similarly in a marking contest we know that the player in front is going to get free kicks for holds, pushes in the back or high contact a lot more than the player behind.

Is it really that fanciful to wonder whether the Dogs get more free kicks because, for example, they're first to the ball more often than their opponent, and therefore get more free kicks from bad tackles? Or that their key position players hold front position more often and therefore get free kicks more than other clubs?

Similarly with Richmond they've regularly played with aggression in their era of dominance and have pushed the envelope, giving away professional free kicks where needed as well. Is it that surprising then that they concede more frees than they get?

I have no data on any of this but it's a topic that is missing from this thread, which focuses solely on incompetence, bias and corruption.

I have been wondering if there is any detailed data on frees, not just across the whole of the competition. I would like to see where/what we win frees for and where/what we give them away for compared to the rest of the teams. I am sure that someone is doing this and that clubs have access to it. I think it would be valuable knowledge to have on a week to week basis so that you know how to counter opposition teams.

Any one know where this data might be?

[Little Goffy 14,443]

While we're in the hunt for free kick data, I'd be fascinated to see a timeline of them over the course of games.

I'm absolutely sure that much of the differential in our game against West Coast game in a couple of bursts, most notably the alarming one right after the restart.

Would be interesting to see the extent of a relationship between free kick 'momentum' and overall game momentum. Before? After? Side by side?

[Demonland 71,285]

9 hours ago, Mono said:

Graphic has disappeared. Can we get it back?

Or where is it from?

It was the free kick differential after Round 2 which was the first round of the season that Zero Hanger release their Free Kick Differential graphic.

I'm not sure why it disappeared but here it is again.

[Jumping Jack Clennett 1,777]

1 hour ago, Demonland said:

It was the free kick differential after Round 2 which was the first round of the season that Zero Hanger release their Free Kick Differential graphic.

I'm not sure why it disappeared but here it is again.

I can’t see the relevance of this “ one-off” stat from round  2. .Is it trying to show the Dogs DONT get a dream run?

Edited August 12, 2021 by Jumping Jack Clennett
Typo

[Demonland 71,285]

2 minutes ago, Jumping Jack Clennett said:

I can’t see the relevance of this “ one-off” stat from round  2. .Is it trying to show the Dogs DONT get a dream run?

They probably complained to the AFL.

Rd 1 vs Collingwood + 4

Rd 2 vs WCE in Melbourne -5

Rd 3 vs Kangaroos + 9

Rd 4 vs Brisbane + 14

Rd 5 vs Suns + 1

Rd 6 vs GWS + 1

Rd 7 vs Richmond - 4

Rd 8 vs Carlton + 3

Rd 9 vs Port - 2

Rd 10 vs St. Kilda + 10

Rd 11 vs Melbourne + 1

Rd 12 vs Freo  = 0

Rd 13 Bye

Rd 14 vs Geelong + 8

Rd 15 vs WCE + 7

Rd 16 vs Kangaroos + 7

Rd 17 vs Sydney + 13

Rd 18 vs Suns - 1

Rd 19 vs Melbourne + 14

Rd 20 vs Adelaide = 0

Rd 21 vs Essendon  + 3

[Boots and all 1,000]

2 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

While we're in the hunt for free kick data, I'd be fascinated to see a timeline of them over the course of games.

I'm absolutely sure that much of the differential in our game against West Coast game in a couple of bursts, most notably the alarming one right after the restart.

Would be interesting to see the extent of a relationship between free kick 'momentum' and overall game momentum. Before? After? Side by side?

The location too, free kicks inside the oppo forward 50 are the killers.

[Mono 455]

2 hours ago, Demonland said:

It was the free kick differential after Round 2 which was the first round of the season that Zero Hanger release their Free Kick Differential graphic.

I'm not sure why it disappeared but here it is again.

Pretty sure the graphic I saw had doggies at +86.

Too much red wine?

[Demonland 71,285]

30 minutes ago, Mono said:

Pretty sure the graphic I saw had doggies at +86.

Too much red wine?

They are plus 83 as at Round 21. See graphic below.

The graphic in my post above  was from Round 2 from the original post in this thread. 

[titan_uranus 24,970]

7 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Is there a statistics page of frees?

ie A breakdown of what the frees were for?

That would be the frst step in analysing it...

Yep, agree. I'm sure this data exists, but I've never seen it made available publicly.

Separate to any discussion about bias/the Bulldogs, I'd be keen to know what sorts of errors we are making more often than other clubs. 

4 hours ago, Jumping Jack Clennett said:

I think the fallacy in the reasoning above about the Bulldogs is apparent when the number of possessions is taken into account.

The Bulldogs often have a large differential greatly in their favour, even when the opposition has more possessions.So the man with the ball in the opposition is being penalised. They must be far better tacklers than any other side.

That's my point: they may well be, and if they are, it stands to reason they'd get more free kicks.

Tackling properly is a skill, like kicking and marking. It isn't silly at all to suggest one side might do it better than another, and that should be borne out in a higher free kick count.

[titan_uranus 24,970]

Tonight's game is a great example of what I was saying above.

Richmond are -4 in free kicks tonight. They've given away a stack of off the ball, or late hit, or undisciplined, free kicks tonight.

It's not a conspiracy or anti-Richmond bias, it's just a side which infringes on the rules a lot.

[Demonland 71,285]

2021 Home & Away Free Kick Differential

[mauriesy 7,256]

So four teams in the 8 are very positive (+146) and four are somewhat negative (-45).

Two teams in the top 4 are positive (+45) and two are negative (-22).

Significance?

[deelusions from afar 1,776]

16 minutes ago, Demonland said:

2021 Home & Away Free Kick Differential

Worst result for a team in the 8.

[In Harmes Way 7,736]

Does this mean we play unsociable footy?

[Demonstone 22,300]

It's less than one kick per game.  Nothing to get upset about, folks.

[Mazer Rackham 14,971]

I ran this through the old stats calculator. Mean -0.11, standard deviation 31.7. All numbers comfortably within 3 standard deviations. Chance of 72 or more: 1%. Change of -86 or lower: 1%. So outliers, but (unfortunately) nothing extraordinary.

I also ran it through the old conspiracy calculator and it ranked the Dogs as "teachers pets". So again no raised eyebrows.

I also ran it through the old mongrel calculator and it confirmed that Richmond are in fact mongrels. So that makes it official.

Edited August 24, 2021 by Mazer Rackham

[Hellish Inferno 992]

The only thing that really stands out is the bookends

At one end the cheats and the other end the thugs

[Macca 16,906]

3 hours ago, Demonstone said:

It's less than one kick per game.  Nothing to get upset about, folks.

Agreed, and how many individual acts influence a game of footy?

Kicks,  handballs,  marks,  contested marks (forward line?) punching clear,  spoils,  spoils to create a boundary throw in,  tap outs,  tap outs to advantage,  positioning of the onballers at stoppages & centre bounce downs,  tagging,  knock-ons,  individuals running to flood,  formation needs,  bumps,  running to create midfield stoppages,  running to press forward,  2-way running,  double teaming,  blocking,  pressure acts,  1%ers,  shepherding,  shots at goal etc etc etc

However, actual talent levels are needed with all those examples.  Fitness, selfless acts and teamwork are huge factors as well

So the footy acts number in the thousands.  That's where games of footy are won & lost

And without a great degree of talent along with top level coaching, a team can't hope to win big anyway

Edited August 24, 2021 by Macca

[leave it to deever 17,511]

On 8/12/2021 at 6:13 PM, Little Goffy said:

While we're in the hunt for free kick data, I'd be fascinated to see a timeline of them over the course of games.

I'm absolutely sure that much of the differential in our game against West Coast game in a couple of bursts, most notably the alarming one right after the restart.

Would be interesting to see the extent of a relationship between free kick 'momentum' and overall game momentum. Before? After? Side by side?

Clearly demonstrated in the cats second qrt onslaught imho.

[radar 1,865]

Ya, how many are “let go”

Selwoods throws and insufficient intent

Dangerfield’s 25 m runs

Hawkins “dump” tackles - two weeks in a row

 

[Demonland 71,285]

On 8/24/2021 at 6:03 PM, Demonland said:

2021 Home & Away Free Kick Differential

After the first week of Finals ...

Bulldogs +80

Geelong +34

GWS +31

Port +11

Brisbane -10

Melbourne -12

Sydney -14

Essendon -19

 

 

[jnrmac 20,053]

Last 10 finals Dogs have won the free kick count. Just sayin....

[Nairobi_Demon 335]

On 8/12/2021 at 1:31 PM, Boots and all said:

The location too, free kicks inside the oppo forward 50 are the killers.

Will be interesting to watch these passages of play once the ProVision is online:

 

Dogs back to dominating the free kick count, 22 to 14 today.