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Free Kick Differential 2021

Demonland
in Melbourne Demons

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47 minutes ago, loges said:

I must admit when Nichols paid the free for a hold behind the play where the ball had travelled to plus a 50m penalty, I wondered if he was making it up.

Also, Gawn, Oliver, May and TMAC need to accept umpiring decisions quickly without throwing their arms in the air. That the boys can control, it might just turn around any perception that our leaders sook too much on the field.

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    18 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

    Weagles are in the plus...no surprises there.

    An interesting stat would be the free kick differential for Home games only for Crows, Power, Weagles and Lions.

    I'm betting it would blow this stat table away and confrim the ' Noise of Affirmation'?

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    1 minute ago, Demon17 said:

    An interesting stat would be the free kick differential for Home games only for Crows, Power, Weagles and Lions.

    I'm betting it would blow this stat table away and confrim the ' Noise of Affirmation'?

    I have West Coast's stats from this year.

    208 frees to 188 for WCE from 11 Home Games at Optus Stadium.

    They won the free kick count 7 of 11 times.

    Twice had 10 or more frees than the away side.

    There are no stats for free kicks not paid.

    No surprises that one of the free kick counts that they lost at home this year was against ... surprise surprise ... the Bulldogs.

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    On 5/17/2021 at 12:58 PM, Yung Blood said:

    Surprised WC so low...

    They only play half their games at home.

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    4 minutes ago, Demonland said:

    I have West Coast's stats from this year.

    208 frees to 188 for WCE from 11 Home Games at Optus Stadium.

    They won the free kick count 7 of 11 times.

    Twice had 10 or more frees than the away side.

    There are no stats for free kicks not paid.

    No surprises that one of the free kick counts that they lost at home this year was against ... surprise surprise ... the Bulldogs.

    That bulldogs game was with no crowd. 🧐

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    5 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

    An interesting stat would be the free kick differential for Home games only for Crows, Power, Weagles and Lions.

    I'm betting it would blow this stat table away and confrim the ' Noise of Affirmation'?

    The stat I mentioned above puts the eagles at + 27 ahead at Optus.  As logic in umpire behaviour would suggest. They are Plus 4 across the whole season.

    But the killer aspect of this was that when the Dogs played over there the Free scores were 18 to 11 - Dogs favour.

    Doggies have unlocked this seceret and we need to find out what it is clearly.

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    6 minutes ago, Demonland said:

    I have West Coast's stats from this year.

    208 frees to 188 for WCE from 11 Home Games at Optus Stadium.

    They won the free kick count 7 of 11 times.

    Twice had 10 or more frees than the away side.

    There are no stats for free kicks not paid.

    No surprises that one of the free kick counts that they lost at home this year was against ... surprise surprise ... the Bulldogs.

    Thats the underlying issue isn't it.

    The crowd screams and the free is paid.

    A Dees player is pushed in the back - silence -play on.

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    2 hours ago, Jumping Jack Clennett said:

    I think our persistent tendency to be on the wrong side of the free count is crucially significant in our prospects of becoming a powerful club.

    I think we need a strategic approach to fixing this. Here are some suggestions  from me, and I'd welcome other Demonlanders to contribute.....

    1./ invite senior umpires to training. Tell them we're worried about our players giving away too many frees. Ask them what we should do to stop it. Especially invite umpires who have been noted to treat us badly(Nicholls, No.22, Margetts )

    2./Instruct our coaches to study footage of the Bulldogs, to try to determine how they do so well with frees ,year after  year .

    3./ Without complaining publicly about the umpires, make it clear, through the media, that our free kick differential is unacceptable to us.  I think umpires need to be aware that some  free statistics look bad. It's been noticeable on occasions ,when the half-time stats are bad ( say, 12 to 4), there appears to be an attempt to even it out.  It's as if the umps have been informed of the discrepancy.

    4./ On field....be polite to umps. Chat to them happily in the rooms , and before the bounce while waiting for the ads to finish.Always pick up the ball for the umps and hand it back with a grin after a skewed bounce. It's worth trying to ingratiate yourselves. It might just turn a 50:50 our way soon after.  I loved Max's comment at Docklands that day in 2020 after a dubious ruck free.."that's ruck-craft, bigboy!"...BUT..he's suffered with adjudications on 50:50's ever since.

    What do other Demonlanders think?

    You won't have to worry about Margetts "treating us badly" any more. he's announced his retirement.

    As an aside, I'm fascinated that people can identify which umpires they believe treat Melbourne worse than others. Apart from Nicholls standing out because of his lack of hair, I don't know one from another. And even if I did, I can't see who pays, or doesn't pay, the free kicks. Is there data somewhere that people refer to which shows this?  

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    22 minutes ago, Demonland said:

    In devastating news for the Eagles ...

     

    He’ll miraculously appear on the Eagles board in a few years, loyal servant that he is.

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    42 minutes ago, Demonland said:

    In devastating news for the Eagles ...

     

    Gee that is good news now what about Nichols

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    Next honour will be Life Membership for Margetts at WC.

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    19 hours ago, Whispering_Jack said:

    And look at that! Our 2 remaining games are against teams in the top 4. A disgrace. 

    For these remaining games, do not expect the situation to change. In fact, it has been growing for several years and is now customary to any game we play (and for other teams down on the gurgling, umpiring vomit list). The growth of these inequities has been such that for our last two games this season, the situation is odds-on to grow further.

    We, as a team and as a committed throng of keen supporters, are simply not wanted by the prevailing hierarchy of the AFL; otherwise, appropriate and fair intervention in such outcomes and automated penalties would have been addressed, ages ago.

    Another factor that is questionable in the extreme is aligned to the free kick differential: the 'unseen' infringement that is destroying Aussie Rules like a cancer.

    How many times do we have to watch deliberated, injurious and rule-breaking assaults on players?

    Gawn and Clarrie, for example, have endured playing careers marred by punches (and worse) from behind - generally to the head - and holding offences continuously applied when nearing the ball, and rule-based compensation is ignored by umpires according to some unstated, non-transparent motives of firstly, the AFL hierarchy and secondly, the umpires and their grossly unnecessary agenda to affect as far as possible the outcomes and conduct of games on a poorly maintained even playing field.

    These unawarded frees mount considerably across a game and as stated by one astute observer, lead to one rule for one side, no rules applications for the other side (MFC). Consistency is missing.

    Outcomes bias at the level of an AFL team predominates. For the MFC, these examples, as well, now extend across the fielded team with no let-up for the two examples cited above.

    Hence, the differential rises in frequency and across the number of teams in the League; hence, the anomolies under the alleged watch of the AFL hierarchy; hence, the dark and unhealthy sentiments of many footballing supporters across many of the teams representing the AFL guinea-pig charade. 

    And then, we have the Match Review Panel - a farce of continuous privilege and reducing justice where again, there are rules for some that do not apply to others. This is how the AFL wish to conduct themselves. They so do on our behalf extremely underhandedly, maintaining these immense faults as tenets of their silent deception.

     

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    20 hours ago, The heart beats true said:

    How can one team AVERAGE 4 more free kicks than their opponent EVERY week? It’s not even like this is the first time it’s happened. 

    https://www.sportingnews.com/au/amp/afl/news/a-procession-of-clubs-complain-to-afl-about-bulldogs-free-kicks-damien-barrett-western-dogs/3v04w7zxcsah14xx243jf8tzr

    How can anyone take the linked article seriously… “leading journalist Damien Barrett” should automatically mean every reader assumes the whole article is satire. Even back in 2017 he wasn’t a leading journalist. Never was and never will be.

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    2 hours ago, The heart beats true said:

    That bulldogs game was with no crowd. 🧐

    Great point and proves the Noise Affirmation theory IMO.

    Take out the Dogs game and across only other Optus games , the eagles are Plus 34 Frees at home games.

    Equates to around 5 extra frees a home game, not to mention all the oppo frees missed due to crowd silence

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    3 hours ago, Demonland said:

    In devastating news for the Eagles ...

     

    Now he can hold his Eagles membership without being caught out.

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    23 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

    Great point and proves the Noise Affirmation theory IMO.

    Take out the Dogs game and across only other Optus games , the eagles are Plus 34 Frees at home games.

    Equates to around 5 extra frees a home game, not to mention all the oppo frees missed due to crowd silence

    Whilst I agree with the Noise Affirmation Theory I also subscribe to the Bulldogs Are the Darlings of the AFL Theory led by their AFL Poster Boy Bontempelli.

    The Bulldogs are probably the only team that could debunk the Noise Affirmation Theory.

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    There is a significant amount of talk in here about bias and conspiracies and favourability etc.

    I'd be really interested in as deep an analysis of free kick counts as possible. Why do the Dogs and Eagles, for example, get so many more than their opponents, and why does Richmond concede so many?

    The two main times a free kick is awarded are tackles and marking contests. As to tackles, most free kicks go to the player with the ball (holding the man, push in the back, high contact, tripping, dangerous tackle) as the tackler only has one option (holding the ball). Similarly in a marking contest we know that the player in front is going to get free kicks for holds, pushes in the back or high contact a lot more than the player behind.

    Is it really that fanciful to wonder whether the Dogs get more free kicks because, for example, they're first to the ball more often than their opponent, and therefore get more free kicks from bad tackles? Or that their key position players hold front position more often and therefore get free kicks more than other clubs?

    Similarly with Richmond they've regularly played with aggression in their era of dominance and have pushed the envelope, giving away professional free kicks where needed as well. Is it that surprising then that they concede more frees than they get?

    I have no data on any of this but it's a topic that is missing from this thread, which focuses solely on incompetence, bias and corruption.

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    On 3/30/2021 at 11:47 PM, Demonland said:

    I'm shocked.

    166542405_1867660023408217_2670941786786

    Graphic has disappeared. Can we get it back?

    Or where is it from?

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