The premiership formula

[bandicoot 1,395]

The last 20 years has seen a common thread amongst all premiers. 

Average  age 26/27

average games 125 - 150

0-50 games - 3 players 

0 - 100 games - 7 players 

150+ games - 10 players 

As basic as this is, age and experience matter. 
bigger bodies, seasoned professionals and a continuaty amongst the core playing group. 
 

dees for the saints games 

average age 25

average games 95

0-5 games - 6

0 - 100 games 12

Over 150 games - 4

The formula for the dees this year is a little short in most categories however with brown, weid, melk and hibbo back the averages start looking a lot better. 
 

next week dees are likely to field the most experienced team in the last 15 years. 
 

It seems that finally the rebuild is coming to an end and the window has swung right open. 

[Left Foot Snap 2,460]

When I see these sorts of threads I have flash backs to Milton the Monster.

When the stiring's done can I lick the spoon?

[58er 6,569]

3 hours ago, bandicoot said:

The last 20 years has seen a common thread amongst all premiers. 

Average  age 26/27

average games 125 - 150

0-50 games - 3 players 

0 - 100 games - 7 players 

150+ games - 10 players 

As basic as this is, age and experience matter. 
bigger bodies, seasoned professionals and a continuaty amongst the core playing group. 
 

dees for the saints games 

average age 25

average games 95

0-5 games - 6

0 - 100 games 12

Over 150 games - 4

The formula for the dees this year is a little short in most categories however with brown, weid, melk and hibbo back the averages start looking a lot better. 
 

next week dees are likely to field the most experienced team in the last 15 years. 
 

It seems that finally the rebuild is coming to an end and the window has swung right open. 

"next week" so after 2 good games Hibbo and Melk are just placed into the team to give us a premiership formula???

I understand the figures but it's about the story behind them and the unique ability to play as a team.

Right  now We are teaming together and a very even contribution from all was the result and rewarded us with a Score that flattered the result, it will come.

No Change except the med sub. Maybe Petty this round.

 

[3183 Dee 2,907]

I think there’s a lot that’s right about those figures, but I believe it points to success for Melbourne in the next few years, rather than this, once the list has organically developed to that age/games demographic.

Another positive thing is that recent recruitment (past 5 years or so) will hopefully lend itself to sustained success.

[Engorged Onion 10,223]

2 hours ago, 58er said:

"next week" so after 2 good games Hibbo and Melk are just placed into the team to give us a premiership formula???

I understand the figures but it's about the story behind them and the unique ability to play as a team.

Right  now We are teaming together and a very even contribution from all was the result and rewarded us with a Score that flattered the result, it will come.

No Change except the med sub. Maybe Petty this round.

 

 

The evidence is, that due to an individual games experience, and continuity playing together with the same players, it gives a team the greatest opportunity to replicate performance consistency, time and again throughout a season.

Edited March 29, 2021 by Engorged Onion

[dee-tox 4,835]

To me a better indicator of a premiership is the bottom six of each team. What I liked on Saturday are the performances of Jordon, Spargo, Kozzie, Rivers, Tomlinson, Nev and Jones.

Aside from manic forward pressure, this is where we have improved and need to continue to improve.

It's easier to play in a winning team but last year we had around 12 guys only that could do it. 

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

5 hours ago, bandicoot said:

The last 20 years has seen a common thread amongst all premiers. 

Average  age 26/27

average games 125 - 150

0-50 games - 3 players 

0 - 100 games - 7 players 

150+ games - 10 players 

As basic as this is, age and experience matter. 
bigger bodies, seasoned professionals and a continuaty amongst the core playing group. 
 

dees for the saints games 

average age 25

average games 95

0-5 games - 6

0 - 100 games 12

Over 150 games - 4

The formula for the dees this year is a little short in most categories however with brown, weid, melk and hibbo back the averages start looking a lot better. 
 

next week dees are likely to field the most experienced team in the last 15 years. 
 

It seems that finally the rebuild is coming to an end and the window has swung right open. 

Yes, but do they make the team look better?

[bandicoot 1,395]

2 hours ago, 58er said:

"next week" so after 2 good games Hibbo and Melk are just placed into the team to give us a premiership formula???

I understand the figures but it's about the story behind them and the unique ability to play as a team.

Right  now We are teaming together and a very even contribution from all was the result and rewarded us with a Score that flattered the result, it will come.

No Change except the med sub. Maybe Petty this round.

 

Melk and hibbo will eventually find their place in the team. Sooner rather than later. They are not the last piece to the puzzle but they will be integral to the season 

[DeeGee 177]

Understand the theory but we have been waiting for years for this to happen. I think the key to having the right age/experience spread is for players to be “good enough” to play 150+ games. In the past we’ve waited for our players to get to the required experience level, but as it turned out- they weren’t good enough.

ps. Hopefully we’ve got enough good players now.

[bandicoot 1,395]

49 minutes ago, DeeGee said:

Understand the theory but we have been waiting for years for this to happen. I think the key to having the right age/experience spread is for players to be “good enough” to play 150+ games. In the past we’ve waited for our players to get to the required experience level, but as it turned out- they weren’t good enough.

ps. Hopefully we’ve got enough good players now.

My point is that the last time this has happened was 15 years ago in 2006. 

[deelusions from afar 1,861]

Amazing it will be the most experienced team in years when we have Kozzie, Jackson, Rivers, Sparrow and Jordon all in the team.  Compare that to last year when we had only a few of those guys and the likes of Melk, Hibberd, Weid etc in.  I know everyone is a year older but how does that work?

[Diamond_Jim 12,628]

There's two types of premiership teams. Those who are great teams and would include the likes of Birsbane, Hawthorn WCE and Richmond in their prime. The other is those who are lucky on the day. Dogs and Port come to mind.

We are definitely in the luck case.

The top 4 is almost sewn up between Port, Tigers and Eagles. Hard to see us being the fourth and you definitely need luck from outside the 4.

[george_on_the_outer 7,711]

This is one of the old furphy's using statistics to form a conclusion after the event.

Players don't get to play 150 games unless they are any good.  They don't get to be 26 and still in the system for the same reason. 

The reason teams win premierships is because they have a sizable group of good players. It's as simple as that.

[bandicoot 1,395]

13 minutes ago, george_on_the_outer said:

This is one of the old furphy's using statistics to form a conclusion after the event.

Players don't get to play 150 games unless they are any good.  They don't get to be 26 and still in the system for the same reason. 

The reason teams win premierships is because they have a sizable group of good players. It's as simple as that.

yes. But to expect greatness from a team that is under that threshold is misguided 

[bandicoot 1,395]

59 minutes ago, deelusions from afar said:

Amazing it will be the most experienced team in years when we have Kozzie, Jackson, Rivers, Sparrow and Jordon all in the team.  Compare that to last year when we had only a few of those guys and the likes of Melk, Hibberd, Weid etc in.  I know everyone is a year older but how does that work?

Jones actually pushes the average up quite significantly... if he doesn’t play the average drops 10 games 

[Mazer Rackham 14,971]

There is a correlation between games played together and overall team success. But which one is the cause?

Bailey had a theory that you "just get games into them" and voila! Success after 100 games/5 years/everyone's 25yo/whatever the benchmark of the day is.

Of course if you have mediocre players who aren't learning anything, a switch doesn't get magically turned on after 100 games. Brendan Bolton found that to his cost. (66 games in his case.)

On the other hand, if you have players who can actually play, and coaches who can get them playing to a system, then the good players help the team win, and they get picked next week. The ones who don't get dropped or turned over. After 5 years, you've got a winning team with a core of good players who've played 100 games together.

Chasing the numbers is cargo cult science.

[DubDee 26,125]

11 hours ago, bandicoot said:

The last 20 years has seen a common thread amongst all premiers. 

Average  age 26/27

average games 125 - 150

0-50 games - 3 players 

0 - 100 games - 7 players 

150+ games - 10 players 

As basic as this is, age and experience matter. 
bigger bodies, seasoned professionals and a continuaty amongst the core playing group. 
 

dees for the saints games 

average age 25

average games 95

0-5 games - 6

0 - 100 games 12

Over 150 games - 4

The formula for the dees this year is a little short in most categories however with brown, weid, melk and hibbo back the averages start looking a lot better. 
 

next week dees are likely to field the most experienced team in the last 15 years. 
 

It seems that finally the rebuild is coming to an end and the window has swung right open. 

Good Post. I have kept on eye on these stats for us over the past 15 years and we are usually the youngest/most inexperienced group.  No doubt you need to get to the other group if you want to win a flag.

I  have always said our best shot of a flag is when Viney, Trac, Oliver, Salem etc are 25yo+ and 100 games+.  this is our generation. going off these stats if we won one this year it would be early, the next 5 years should be interesting.  and if you think - we've said this before - we haven't.  we have never had this sort of talent coming together like this in the past 15 years

[Neil Crompton 5,666]

1 hour ago, george_on_the_outer said:

This is one of the old furphy's using statistics to form a conclusion after the event.

Players don't get to play 150 games unless they are any good.  They don't get to be 26 and still in the system for the same reason. 

The reason teams win premierships is because they have a sizable group of good players. It's as simple as that.

And a good coach!

[DubDee 26,125]

1 hour ago, george_on_the_outer said:

This is one of the old furphy's using statistics to form a conclusion after the event.

Players don't get to play 150 games unless they are any good.  They don't get to be 26 and still in the system for the same reason. 

The reason teams win premierships is because they have a sizable group of good players. It's as simple as that.

therefore these stats should indicate a team has a sizeable group of good players that have a better chance of winning the flag, proving the OP's point, no?

[58er 6,569]

4 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

 

The evidence is, that due to an individual games experience, and continuity playing together with the same players, it gives a team the greatest opportunity to replicate performance consistency, time and again throughout a season.

Melky did not help last year Hibbo was good but injury and form and new faces are all facts of footy life.

We must pick on form and new game plans plus new players ie Jordan, Sparrow FullY deserve their spots and have added different choices in style in our midfield. Now ANB and Pickett are also doing cameos to add to our depth.

Spargo Hunt Jetta Jones Rivers and even Brayshaw all contributed well enough to hold their spots.

Let's  not regard stats like this as the Sole controller of selection if there are reasons for variations which will improve the team and Keep evolving in an attempt to win the Holy Grail. ( Hi Doggies 2016).

I do recognise the value of maturity that say Trac Salem and Lever bring now and others do there is a natural progression in creating  a list For success.

We are potentially closer now than 2018 but I firmly believe that some heroes of 2018 are not shoe ins for the next Finals  tilt or Substantial era of success For our next flag.

For example Bowey or Jetta ? Hibbo or Rivers ?  Rosman or Jonesy  On a wing ? Melksham or Chandler or Laurie.    LJ or Daw?  
A mix of each group as indicated is fine and our 22-27 group are our greatest strength who should lead the charge with others from each group more subject to form and development and experience as a qualification for a spot.

 

 

 

 

[old dee 23,872]

3 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

There's two types of premiership teams. Those who are great teams and would include the likes of Birsbane, Hawthorn WCE and Richmond in their prime. The other is those who are lucky on the day. Dogs and Port come to mind.

We are definitely in the luck case.

The top 4 is almost sewn up between Port, Tigers and Eagles. Hard to see us being the fourth and you definitely need luck from outside the 4.

I would suggest a miracle DJ.

[george_on_the_outer 7,711]

57 minutes ago, DubDee said:

therefore these stats should indicate a team has a sizeable group of good players that have a better chance of winning the flag, proving the OP's point, no?

No...Hawthorn 2008, the Baby Bombers in the 90's, even Brisbane in the early 2000's.  All young teams but loaded with talent such that they were able to win multiple premierships in subsequent years.  Hawthorn and Geelong should have won the past 5 premierships if age and games played was the criteria.

[DubDee 26,125]

yes, I see your point.   

I still think the trend is there. Hawks got one early in 08 and then dominated when their players were in their prime '12-'14. Bombers were an anomaly and Brisbane were not young if I recall correctly.  they fell off a cliff after 2004.

Very difficult to win one without having a bolus of the team in the right age and experience bracket.  even tougher if the talent is not there

[PaulRB 6,411]

3 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

There's two types of premiership teams. Those who are great teams and would include the likes of Birsbane, Hawthorn WCE and Richmond in their prime. The other is those who are lucky on the day. Dogs and Port come to mind.

We are definitely in the luck case.

The top 4 is almost sewn up between Port, Tigers and Eagles. Hard to see us being the fourth and you definitely need luck from outside the 4.

At round 2,  undefeated and in the top 4, nothing is sewn up. 

And each of those great teams, all were seen as “lucky” to win their first flag (think Hawks in 2008), the “greatness” was applied in retrospect. I worry the Doggies have another flag or two in their current (flag winning) group... our unexpected success not dissimilar to their wild ride to their flag...

My point being, retrospective logic is a great way to describe and understand the past, but can be fairly useless in predicting the future... 

 

Go Demons.

[Garbo 1,542]

Think what this shows is regardless of if this group wins a flag we are 2 years away from seeing the best from this group, if we can be in the top 6 this year and top 4 next, that bodes well for potential future success. What you don’t want is to be peaking in 2 years and only getting in lower half of the 8 ala north of a few years back.