1 hour ago, Axis of Bob said:

I was simply using the least biased predictor of what our chances of winning a premiership this year were. Specifically I mostly wanted to demonstrate the point that, despite being top of the ladder, the significant likelihood is that we won't win the flag this year. This point was being made against the 'go all out for a flag' argument.

 

Going 'all out' for a flag is fine for a team that is on its last legs and only has one realistic shot left (like Adelaide in 2017 or Sydney in 2016) but is not the best way to win a flag for teams coming into their premiership window, like us. The best way to win a flag is to be consistently very good over a number of years because there are so many variables that are largely out of a team's control. I think that this is what we should be trying to maximise our ability to win a flag across multiple years rather than looking at 2021 in isolation.

So Ben Brown is finished as an AFL player then?

12 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

So Ben Brown is finished as an AFL player then?

No, but he is tied to us by a contract he signed last year. That means that he's the only one that we know will be with us next year. 

Neither Weideman nor McDonald have contracts for next year, so there is the possibility that Brown will be our only AFL quality key forward, which is not ideal for a team looking to win a premiership that clearly favours a setup with 2 key forwards.

If McDonald leaves as a free agent and Weideman spends the year playing VFL then what do you think becomes of that scenario?

Edited June 8, 20213 yr by Axis of Bob

7 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Mate, seriously?

I'm not shouting about it at all about this topic. I have been measured in my response around my concerns with Weideman on the back of his performance this year. If I am not allowed to express that on here then I'll happy close my account for good.

Read the response. All discussions have been good and well written out by everyone.

Although I replied to your post it was directed at a number of others as well. I've always liked your posts whether I've agreed with them or not and perhaps I wouldn't have quoted you if I had read your later post in reply to AoB. Having said that I will also say that I get it. You have expressed your concerns about Weid and you've gone to great lengths to support your opinion more than once.  I fail to see how I have not allowed you to express your opinion and my comments are around the ad nausum manner in which some posters have run down Weids performance to date, while at the same time promoting BBB as the instant solution based on little except ancient history. You seem to have ignored a part of the post you were affronted by where I stated "If you go back through this thread you might think I'm happy with where he is at, I'm not".

This is what I posted, in part, when replying to Ham back on pg 9. Perhaps we can have a discussion.

I'm in the camp that thinks Weid should be given more time in the Senior side. That's an opinion. My observation of his last 4 games lead me to think he is improving and importantly the non negotiables are being delivered (think "selflessness" "team defence", "positioning", "constant presentation"). That's an observation leading to an opinion.

I don't believe kicking straight for goal or taking every mark as a one touch grab are "non negotiables". I would imagine there are certain KPI's that might need to be met regarding that however. That's a guess leading to an opinion.

A number of posters believe Sam has been given too much time to improve based on his age or time on our list. You have blamed the MFC and the Coaches for failing to develop him properly.

Weid has played 48 senior games, FACT. Last season he played 13 consecutive games (the greatest amount of consecutive games he has ever played by a considerable margin), from R6 to R18. Averaged 2 goals a game R6 to R14. FACT . All his other stats were reasonable for a key forward during this period. Opinion. He fell away badly in the final 4 games particularly in the Cairns games and I'm not going to try and guess why. That would be speculation.

I think he has had a tougher path than most and has had struggles with injuries that have impacted his development, consistency and confidence. I would like to see him get at least another 4 or more consecutive games before doubting him. Opinion.

Even then my opinion would be that the Coaches know what they are doing, more often than not, on the evidence to date.

Sam strikes me as one of those players that everyone wants to come right, but might never do it, and there you go you've gifted 80 games to a player before you realise that while he looked good, looked like he could, and had all the "traits", he just wasn't very good. 

I've heard arguments that we have done it before (Oscar Mac may be another example) - but this is not an argument for the club doing it again, if anything the reverse is true, we shouldn't make the same mistake. 

Is there a better KPF talent that we can obtain ?

Some thoughts - Carlton in disarray, could we chase a McKay? Gary Rohan out of contract at Geelong - can play bigger and would be a great addition to our forward line? Callum Coleman Jones also OOC. Mitch Wallis at the Dogs - could be a handy mid-sized pressure leading forward. 

I admire what the Lions and the Doggies have been able to do with Daniher and Bruce respectively to top up their forward lines.  Do we need to think about the same thing?

2 hours ago, dpositive said:

Weid I see the future, he's still only 24. Back to Casey to continue his development.

His best returns have been as a deep forward converting the upfield work of Brown and Mac in some cases. He can rove around and has been competitive in ruck. He is similar to LJ in stature, mobility and flexibility, but should be developed to replace BB orTMac

TMac and Brown is the now.  Both roving to the wing to create competition and entry points into the deeper forward position .

if one is out the other should be back. They should not be competing together, one takes an opponent out of the contest. Kossie Fritta etc feed off their contests .

If BB or TMac is injured or drops form for 3 games Weid straight in otherwise he stays at Casey. He can return for finals to give chop out or different structure if required. Weid gets told he is the future of a premiership winning decade and if he chooses to go to another club he will be replaced to ensure that success is continued. He will move to a club that will not beat a now substantial club. 

Just as Petty has been promoted from the future, Tomlinson will replace him when fit. May will be replaced Petty,   Hore and Casey players will eventually replace him.

Casey is the development base for the future to complement the stars recruited and drafted. This adds to the brilliant base we have assembled. There are many routes to success we  finally seem to have a greater ability to exploit them.

 

Hore will not be replacing any one Daniel Turner our new 194 cm rookie will do that maybe  even next year.

 

 

3 hours ago, Pollyanna said:

A thoughtful post, well researched as usual Titan.

But are you comparing apples?  Almost all those KPFs with the possible exception of Riewoldt (Lynch?) are the main targets in their teams. Currently that's TMac at MFC and Weid is playing the supporting role.  That was the plan going into the season except that it was meant to be B.Brown playing the key role with Weid supporting, and TMac working out his contract at Casey.

So the I think the question is whether Weid is adequately performing his complementary role to TMac and whether B.Brown would do this better because neither are unseating TMac any time soon who is absolutely on fire.

B.Brown and TMac worked effectively together against the Swans but it seems the FD prefers Weid's attributes to B.Brown's in this role overall, possibly because they value his greater ground ball capability and forward pressure.

I completely agree that Weid needs to start sticking his marks - but his attack on the contest is definitely there, and I agree that he definitely needs to kick those goals - but I know he's a great kick.  The forward line is functioning very well and we're rating high in forward 50 conversions.  I'm patient to see it play out - but I agree Weid needs to be on an improving curve to hold his spot.

That's a fair argument.

I've had a look at some of the arguable second-banana forwards: Hipwood/Daniher (don't know which one is "first" or "second"), Jeremy Cameron, Tom Lynch and Jack Darling. Here are some of their stats for comparison:

1. Score involvements (Weid 4.0): Hipwood 5.4, Daniher 6.2, Cameron 7.5, Lynch 6.5, Darling 6.5
2. Shots on goal (Weid 2.5): Hipwood 3.6, Daniher 3.5, Cameron 5.0, Lynch 4.3, Darling 4.0
3. Goal assists (Weid 0.5): Hipwood 0.4, Daniher 0.5, Cameron 0.5, Lynch 1.0, Darling 0.8.
4. Marks (Weid 4.0): Hipwood 5.5, Daniher 5.2, Cameron 4.0, Lynch 5.2, Darling 6.1
5. Contested marks (Weid 1.3): Hipwood 1.3, Daniher 1.4, Cameron 0.5, Lynch 2.0, Darling 2.2
6. Pressure Acts (Weid 7.3): Hipwood 7.8, Daniher 7.6, Cameron 6.8, Lynch 11.4, Darling 12.8

So clearly Weid is closer to the mark with this bunch of forwards than the ones I compared him to yesterday (Mackay, Walker, Kennedy, Hawkins, Riewoldt, Franklin, Ben King, TMac), which makes sense and indicates your argument is a good one. 

But his numbers are either last or second last when compared to these five forwards on all these metrics which IMO suggests we can get more out of the second KPF than we're currently getting out of Weid.

It's not a massive gap, so it's bridgeable, but I want to see him bridge it sooner rather than later.

14 hours ago, jnrmac said:

He's out of contract 

I'm with Axis - I can't imagine anyone intentionally tanking their personal game to impress prospective clubs. 

1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

That's a fair argument.

I've had a look at some of the arguable second-banana forwards: Hipwood/Daniher (don't know which one is "first" or "second"), Jeremy Cameron, Tom Lynch and Jack Darling. Here are some of their stats for comparison:

1. Score involvements (Weid 4.0): Hipwood 5.4, Daniher 6.2, Cameron 7.5, Lynch 6.5, Darling 6.5
2. Shots on goal (Weid 2.5): Hipwood 3.6, Daniher 3.5, Cameron 5.0, Lynch 4.3, Darling 4.0
3. Goal assists (Weid 0.5): Hipwood 0.4, Daniher 0.5, Cameron 0.5, Lynch 1.0, Darling 0.8.
4. Marks (Weid 4.0): Hipwood 5.5, Daniher 5.2, Cameron 4.0, Lynch 5.2, Darling 6.1
5. Contested marks (Weid 1.3): Hipwood 1.3, Daniher 1.4, Cameron 0.5, Lynch 2.0, Darling 2.2
6. Pressure Acts (Weid 7.3): Hipwood 7.8, Daniher 7.6, Cameron 6.8, Lynch 11.4, Darling 12.8

So clearly Weid is closer to the mark with this bunch of forwards than the ones I compared him to yesterday (Mackay, Walker, Kennedy, Hawkins, Riewoldt, Franklin, Ben King, TMac), which makes sense and indicates your argument is a good one. 

But his numbers are either last or second last when compared to these five forwards on all these metrics which IMO suggests we can get more out of the second KPF than we're currently getting out of Weid.

It's not a massive gap, so it's bridgeable, but I want to see him bridge it sooner rather than later.

Great research thanks Titan! There's 3 A Grade 2nd bananas in there but that's what we need I agree.  Weid needs to improve his output.

Edited June 8, 20213 yr by Pollyanna

5 hours ago, Axis of Bob said:

But why would he not be trying to play as well as he can, just because he's out of contact?

Are you suggesting he'd rather miss out of playing finals? Or playing worse which would reduce the value of his next contract? Or .... ?

It simply doesn't make sense.

I didn't suggest that was his reason. You asked and I stated it could be a reason. We don't know.

He's out of contract and someone could have offered him $850k a season. Who knows?

He hasn't signed a contract with Melbourne.

But that wasn't my point at all if you care to read what I said.

3 hours ago, Axis of Bob said:

No, but he is tied to us by a contract he signed last year. That means that he's the only one that we know will be with us next year. 

Neither Weideman nor McDonald have contracts for next year, so there is the possibility that Brown will be our only AFL quality key forward, which is not ideal for a team looking to win a premiership that clearly favours a setup with 2 key forwards.

If McDonald leaves as a free agent and Weideman spends the year playing VFL then what do you think becomes of that scenario?

McDonald is contracted for next year.

Plus if Brown can remain injury why can’t he put together 2-3 good years at theMFC?

22 hours ago, jnrmac said:

It also shouldn't be an argument about Weid being out of contract and we need to play him so other clubs don't poach him. For all we know he will declare he wants to go to say Collingwood and is performing poorly now because he knows he will be off next year. Not saying that is the case but it could be....

This was your original post on the topic.

In response I asked why knowing he will be off next year would make him perform poorly. You responded that it was because he was out of contract. I didn't think that this was a reason for him to be playing poorly. 

2 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

I didn't suggest that was his reason. You asked and I stated it could be a reason. We don't know.

He's out of contract and someone could have offered him $850k a season. Who knows?

He hasn't signed a contract with Melbourne.

But that wasn't my point at all if you care to read what I said.

So you think it's possible that he could be playing poorly because he's out of contract at the end of the year and may be off to another club. I think it is illogical that a player would not be playing well because they are out of contract. In fact the opposite is more likely to be true, as players are more motivated by the lure of a future big contract when they are coming out of contract.

 But that wasn't your point, if I cared to read what you said.

 

3 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

McDonald is contracted for next year.

You are dead right.

I've been running with the wrong assumption that McDonald was in the last year of his contract, rather than his second last. ?

4 hours ago, dworship said:

Although I replied to your post it was directed at a number of others as well. I've always liked your posts whether I've agreed with them or not and perhaps I wouldn't have quoted you if I had read your later post in reply to AoB. Having said that I will also say that I get it. You have expressed your concerns about Weid and you've gone to great lengths to support your opinion more than once.  I fail to see how I have not allowed you to express your opinion and my comments are around the ad nausum manner in which some posters have run down Weids performance to date, while at the same time promoting BBB as the instant solution based on little except ancient history. You seem to have ignored a part of the post you were affronted by where I stated "If you go back through this thread you might think I'm happy with where he is at, I'm not".

This is what I posted, in part, when replying to Ham back on pg 9. Perhaps we can have a discussion.

I'm in the camp that thinks Weid should be given more time in the Senior side. That's an opinion. My observation of his last 4 games lead me to think he is improving and importantly the non negotiables are being delivered (think "selflessness" "team defence", "positioning", "constant presentation"). That's an observation leading to an opinion.

I don't believe kicking straight for goal or taking every mark as a one touch grab are "non negotiables". I would imagine there are certain KPI's that might need to be met regarding that however. That's a guess leading to an opinion.

A number of posters believe Sam has been given too much time to improve based on his age or time on our list. You have blamed the MFC and the Coaches for failing to develop him properly.

Weid has played 48 senior games, FACT. Last season he played 13 consecutive games (the greatest amount of consecutive games he has ever played by a considerable margin), from R6 to R18. Averaged 2 goals a game R6 to R14. FACT . All his other stats were reasonable for a key forward during this period. Opinion. He fell away badly in the final 4 games particularly in the Cairns games and I'm not going to try and guess why. That would be speculation.

I think he has had a tougher path than most and has had struggles with injuries that have impacted his development, consistency and confidence. I would like to see him get at least another 4 or more consecutive games before doubting him. Opinion.

Even then my opinion would be that the Coaches know what they are doing, more often than not, on the evidence to date.

Brilliant

5 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

That's a fair argument.

I've had a look at some of the arguable second-banana forwards: Hipwood/Daniher (don't know which one is "first" or "second"), Jeremy Cameron, Tom Lynch and Jack Darling. Here are some of their stats for comparison:

1. Score involvements (Weid 4.0): Hipwood 5.4, Daniher 6.2, Cameron 7.5, Lynch 6.5, Darling 6.5
2. Shots on goal (Weid 2.5): Hipwood 3.6, Daniher 3.5, Cameron 5.0, Lynch 4.3, Darling 4.0
3. Goal assists (Weid 0.5): Hipwood 0.4, Daniher 0.5, Cameron 0.5, Lynch 1.0, Darling 0.8.
4. Marks (Weid 4.0): Hipwood 5.5, Daniher 5.2, Cameron 4.0, Lynch 5.2, Darling 6.1
5. Contested marks (Weid 1.3): Hipwood 1.3, Daniher 1.4, Cameron 0.5, Lynch 2.0, Darling 2.2
6. Pressure Acts (Weid 7.3): Hipwood 7.8, Daniher 7.6, Cameron 6.8, Lynch 11.4, Darling 12.8

So clearly Weid is closer to the mark with this bunch of forwards than the ones I compared him to yesterday (Mackay, Walker, Kennedy, Hawkins, Riewoldt, Franklin, Ben King, TMac), which makes sense and indicates your argument is a good one. 

But his numbers are either last or second last when compared to these five forwards on all these metrics which IMO suggests we can get more out of the second KPF than we're currently getting out of Weid.

It's not a massive gap, so it's bridgeable, but I want to see him bridge it sooner rather than later.

Thanks Titan for putting some hard data behind your argument.  One issue for Weid this year is he came into a team that was 8-0 and a forward line that has mostly functioned really well, and especially defensively where they have played a huge part in us being so good at scoring from turnovers. As a consequence, he has been playing a role that is different to what was needed in 2019. In the last 3 weeks he has been an inside 50 target only 4.67x a game. This is really low, and has to be taken into account when comparing him to others, as just based on volume of opportunity his numbers will be lower. 

One thing that stands out a bit is how far behind say Darling he is in pressure acts. Darling is super fit. Last week I though Weid looked a bit slow in some of his chasing. That’s probably just due to his interrupted season. BB I thought looked even more off the pace defensively in his games.

 

As a bit of an update on what some of the people who are involved in the Club actually think about Weid and his current role, head over to the MFC site and listen to Gawny's presser and Richardson's radio interview this week. But don't come back here and say "see, BBB is tearing it up at training". Weid being the 3rd tall target also gets a mention.

40 minutes ago, dworship said:

As a bit of an update on what some of the people who are involved in the Club actually think about Weid and his current role, head over to the MFC site and listen to Gawny's presser and Richardson's radio interview this week. But don't come back here and say "see, BBB is tearing it up at training". Weid being the 3rd tall target also gets a mention.

But BBB is tearing it up at training…

 

Kudos to the 3 people who got that reference.

58 minutes ago, dworship said:

As a bit of an update on what some of the people who are involved in the Club actually think about Weid and his current role, head over to the MFC site and listen to Gawny's presser and Richardson's radio interview this week. But don't come back here and say "see, BBB is tearing it up at training". Weid being the 3rd tall target also gets a mention.

I thought Gawn was respectful and non committal about Weideman's form. He said that we definitely want to keep playing three talls. Jackson, McDonald and then one of Weideman or Brown. He then said there'll likely be a bit of back and forth on this particular spot for the rest of the year.

I didn't feel like he threw Weideman under the bus, but he does say Sam would prefer to be kicking more goals. 

I reckon he has this week to keep competing and hit the scoreboard and if he doesn't snag a few goals (2 or 3), I think it'll be Brown in for Weideman after the bye.

That doesn't mean that's Weideman's last look in this year, but I think Brown will then get a look in for a stretch post bye.

Edited June 8, 20213 yr by A F

42 minutes ago, rpfc said:

But BBB is tearing it up at training…

 

Kudos to the 3 people who got that reference.

Does he have a beard though?

46 minutes ago, rpfc said:

But BBB is tearing it up at training…

 

Kudos to the 3 people who got that reference.

So Weid is to become "Shooter"?

 

 

41 minutes ago, A F said:

I thought Gawn was respectful and non committal about Weideman's form. He said that we definitely want to keep playing three talls. Jackson, McDonald and then one of Weideman or Brown. He then said there'll likely be a bit of back and forth on this particular spot for the rest of the year.

I didn't feel like he threw Weideman under the bus, but he does say Sam would prefer to be kicking more goals. 

I reckon he has this week to keep competing and hit the scoreboard and if he doesn't snag a few goals (2 or 3), I think it'll be Brown in for Weideman after the bye.

That doesn't mean that's Weideman's last look in this year, but I think Brown will then get a look in for a stretch post bye.

Here's hoping Casey can play a game over the bye weekend and we can see how Brown goes. Might be able to get Viney in for a half as well.

1 minute ago, dworship said:

Here's hoping Casey can play a game over the bye weekend and we can see how Brown goes. Might be able to get Viney in for a half as well.

Richo said on radio that Brown's intensity at training has been high and that we try to make training as close to game day intensity as possible. I reckon if Casey aren't able to play, Brown will play anyway. 

5 minutes ago, A F said:

Richo said on radio that Brown's intensity at training has been high and that we try to make training as close to game day intensity as possible. I reckon if Casey aren't able to play, Brown will play anyway. 

If he doesn't kick any goals on Monday that would be likely .

7 hours ago, Nascent said:

Does he have a beard though?

I heard grizzly adams had a beard.

I’m not sure we are going to see the best of the Weid or BB this year. They both missed a chunk of preseason and with the VFL in stop start mode it’s going to be very difficult for either to hit their straps. I hope the Weid starts clunking more marks but more likely he’ll continue contesting and bringing the ball to ground and kicking his 1 goal a game. BB has played 6 games (I think) across VFL and AFL. He missed preseason after an injury hit 2020. It’s no basis to develop a foundation to contribute to a flag chasing team.

Maybe I’m being pessimistic but I don’t think either will hit the heights in 2021

On 6/6/2021 at 12:43 PM, Sargent Shultz said:

Possibly, or maybe they are saving Brown for the back half of the season, maybe they are still unsure about his injury? All i really know is that unless your " inside the tent" all our opinions are just that.

 

Took awhile but finally the coaches agreed with me and guess what -brown goes well and we win