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NON MFC: Round 16


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4 minutes ago, dl4e said:

I am reading a lot of delusional nonsense on this thread. We do not deserve to play finals and nor are we a chance. Don't rely on others to do the dirty washing. 

Carlton didn’t deserve to play finals in 2013 either. Just saying...

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So assuming we win our last two, basically we need one of the three to happen in order to make the eight:

1) Pies lose both their last two games (GC and Port)

2) Saints lose both their last two games (WCE and GWS)

3) Dogs lose one of their last two games (Hawks and Freo)

I actually think the most likely is the Dogs dropping one of their games. Hawks are due for a win I feel.

 

Edited by At the break of Gawn
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12 minutes ago, At the break of Gawn said:

So assuming we win our last two, basically we need one of the three to happen in order to make the eight:

1) Pies lose both their last two games (GC and Port)

2) Saints lose both their last two games (WCE and GWS)

3. Dogs lose one of their last two games (Hawks and Freo)

I actually think the most likely is the Dogs dropping one of their games. Hawks are due for a win I feel.

 

Freo are a good chance to beat Bulldogs in Cairns on a dewy night.Great it's up there and not Metricon where they played the last 6/8,while we're Metricon,Alice Springs,Cairns,Cairns,Gabba,Metricon on mostly 4/5 day breaks!!!

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1 hour ago, DubDee said:

perhaps more likely is the dogs to lose to Freo in the last round - if we win our 2 last games we'll get in 8th assuming no big jumps in %

10 minutes ago, At the break of Gawn said:

So assuming we win our last two, basically we need one of the three to happen in order to make the eight:

1) Pies lose both their last two games (GC and Port)

2) Saints lose both their last two games (WCE and GWS)

3) Dogs lose one of their last two games (Hawks and Freo)

I actually think the most likely is the Dogs dropping one of their games. Hawks are due for a win I feel.

Correct, if we win both of our last two games then any of the above three scenarios sees us make finals.

The St Kilda scenario requires us to make up 7% on St Kilda. Given we'll be winning twice and they'll be losing twice from here, that is probably not that much of a stretch.

The other two don't rely on percentage but obviously require upsets.

The only relevant game to be played before we play GWS is St Kilda v West Coast on Thursday night. If St Kilda win that, we'll know we're down to only two of these options being available. But, in what I think is good news, we'll still have the Dogs and Collingwood games unplayed when it's our turn, so we won't know for sure. Means we can't get ahead of ourselves and hopefully helps us focus.

 

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9 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Correct, if we win both of our last two games then any of the above three scenarios sees us make finals.

The St Kilda scenario requires us to make up 7% on St Kilda. Given we'll be winning twice and they'll be losing twice from here, that is probably not that much of a stretch.

The other two don't rely on percentage but obviously require upsets.

The only relevant game to be played before we play GWS is St Kilda v West Coast on Thursday night. If St Kilda win that, we'll know we're down to only two of these options being available. But, in what I think is good news, we'll still have the Dogs and Collingwood games unplayed when it's our turn, so we won't know for sure. Means we can't get ahead of ourselves and hopefully helps us focus.

 

Chances of us winning the last two? Not good I would think on past performance.

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1 hour ago, McQueen said:

The Teague train has derailed. 

I wish my postings had this effect on the MFC. 

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Just now, layzie said:

I wish I shared your optimism in winning the last two TU. I really do.

I'm not optimistic about us winning our last two at all. I'm barely optimistic about us winning even one of them.

But, if we do win our last two, Carlton won't be passing us. 

The pessimistic outlook would suggest this: we lose our last two, Carlton beats Adelaide, Fremantle beats North, and we end up 13th.

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