Run home to Finals - 2018

[What 18,810]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-07-29/the-run-home-round-19

[titan_uranus 25,255]

4 hours ago, Petraccattack said:

Hawks with a huge % boost today, and the Cats have two % booster games in Rounds 22 and 23 at home as the AFL continues to gift them a charity draw.

Our percentage is not looking like our saviour just yet...  we must annihilate the Suns to give us more breathing space.

Why is that a "charity draw"?

It just means they've had to play their more difficult games already.

They've already had their 5 interstate trips, they were forced to have a "home" game against Richmond at the G, and their repeat games were against Richmond, Hawthorn, Melbourne, Sydney and Gold Coast (i.e. four finals contenders plus GC).

[DubDee 26,674]

Man it’s gonna be tight. Difference between 3 and 10th at round 23 might only be a game! 

North should make it now with 3 definite wins and 1 probable win

Collingwood will fall back into the pack. 

We need two wins and we should be ok to get 8th spot at least. 

[loges 6,767]

3 hours ago, sisso said:

We should pound the Suns into oblivion: young injury weakened team who can't wait for the season to end vs a hungry team with this group's first chance for finals....should be a no-contest 

Smacks a bit like the second last game of 2017 against Brisbane. If we get on top we must go for the big win. Not take our foot off yhe pedal.

[Rogue 585]

11 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Need to play smart against GCS. Percentage is irrelevant (we are miles in front of everyone else) so a nice regulation 30 point win would be nice. Get a good break in Q1 and then just close out the game

That is crazy talk. I would have thought missing out on finals by the slimmest of margins last year would have taught us that percentage can be critical, and teams like Hawthorn and Geelong could rapidly make ground if we only stagger across the line and then have a bad loss or two. If we're up by five goals at quarter time we should be aiming to replicate that in each of the remaining quarters - a 20 goal win, thanks. That said, I'm not taking the win as a given - recent rounds have shown us that the bottoms teams are causing upsets every now and then, and I don't want it to be against us.

[What 18,810]

1 hour ago, DubDee said:

 

North should make it now with 3 definite wins and 1 probable win

 

Lions at the GABBA this upcoming round is not a probable win for them.

If I was a betting man I'd back the Lions.

[John Demonic 5,988]

Did some predictors and have us beating GCS/SYD and losing to WCE and then playing GWS in round 23 for 5th (W) or falling to 9th with a Loss. However GWS could actually be 4th without any chance of moving from the position, so who knows if they'll rest, play bruise-free footy or if they use it as an MCG rehearsal and we have a big fight on our hands, which is a rehearsal for us too.

On the other hand, if we pull off the miraculous and win all 3 games, then Us v GWS is a battle for 3rd or 4th place, loser gets 5th or 6th. 

I don't even want to bother with calculating finals with a loss to Sydney & WCE, that will definitely be predicated on many upsets for teams in contention.

Edited July 29, 2018 by johndemonic

[Skuit 10,031]

Pragmatic dream ladder after round 23?

Pretty much the automated AFL ladder predictor.

Week one:

Richmond v Port (Richmond in cruise control without a proper tune-up before yet another bye)

GWS v Hawks (goodbye long-term nemesis)

Geelong v MFC (at MCG after we've dominated them for the past three matches w/o the W)

West Coast v Collingwood (Pies go on the road to WA)

Week two:

Port v GWS (goodbye scary upstarts)

Collingwood v MFC (Pies returning from WA road trip)

Week three:

Richmond v MFC (our best chance against an underdone Tigers outfit before the big dance)

West Coast v Port (see-ya Jack)

Grand final

West Coast v MFC (glory)

[Pates 9,697]

Every game is crucial, but ultimately we just have to keep our focus on week to week. We win next week vs GC and it's well and truly laid out in front of us. 

I'm feeling better in that I think on our day every game in front of us can be a win, but we've been burnt so many times it's hard not to be hesitant about being too optimistic.

Treat every match as if we're playing the reigning premiers.

[Mt. Dee-Maaan 608]

just did the ladder predictor for the last four rounds...after a few glasses of talisker single malt. GREAT NEWS! we won't lose a game for the rest of the year *insert excitement emoji* i also found that i cannot tip against richmond and essendon seem to have momentum with them at the moment.. my ladder has richmond taking first spot by 3 games and essendon winning but still missing finals on percentage ([censored] me i would crack up if that happened). 

 

[highroller 112]

12 hours ago, Dr.D said:

I seriously think people like you should be banned from this site. Anyone talking about finals should eat their words. Apparently, last season wasn't a big enough example of people getting ahead of themselves. i still don't think we make finals, and that will stay that way until we actually make finals. 

get a grip dude seriously!!! sorry for being positive around a place that is full of negativity and hate towards our players most of the time. If you want to always think the worst go for it but I want us in the business of winning flags and you are trying to conjure up ways how we will inevitably fail again - think its you would should clear out

[jnrmac 20,375]

On 7/17/2018 at 9:50 PM, Pates said:

About bloody time, though as you point out it’s none of the key/star players. How do you think they would go with Rance out for the year (Lever) and Cotchin (Viney) out for an extended period of time. 

Would they still be cruising easy on top?

I’ve said it so many times you can’t win/compete for premierships without luck and they have had it in spades. Not taking away from their achievements because every premiership team every year has had it. 

I don't disagree per se but the Bulldogs had some pretty key injuries in their premiership year particularly to their defence with Easton Wood and Murphy. Stringer was injured in key parts of the year as well...

[dl4e 5,851]

We have to win the next 2 games. We can then hope for a win against wet coke or giants. We don't want to be in a position of turning up to round 23 where a win we make the 8 or lose and we are out. The matter has to be resolved before round 23.

Don't underestimate the swans.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

If we win the next two games (we are getting Sydney at a great time) then I think we should make finals regardless of the last two games.

[Diamond_Jim 12,772]

10 hours ago, Rogue said:

That is crazy talk. I would have thought missing out on finals by the slimmest of margins last year would have taught us that percentage can be critical, and teams like Hawthorn and Geelong could rapidly make ground if we only stagger across the line and then have a bad loss or two. If we're up by five goals at quarter time we should be aiming to replicate that in each of the remaining quarters - a 20 goal win, thanks. That said, I'm not taking the win as a given - recent rounds have shown us that the bottoms teams are causing upsets every now and then, and I don't want it to be against us.

Have you done the maths on what is required to move the percentages at this time of the year.

Last year we had one of the lowest percentages in the group vying for the 8. This year we have the highest percentage in the league bar Richmond.

It's not a factor this year.

Far more important is to practice a defence style that allows us to stop the run ons we have seen in the last two weeks. We're not going anywhere unless our defence improves.

Edited July 30, 2018 by Diamond_Jim

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,548]

A disastrous and heart breaking scenario which sees us missing the finals on 13 wins:

MELBOURNE:

GG      W

Sydney   L

WCE    L

GWS   W

 

GEELONG:

Richmond  W

Hawthorn   L

Freo            W

GC            W

 

HAWTHORN

Essendon    W

Geelong      W

St Kilda     W

Sydney     L

 

SYDNEY:

Collingwood  W

Melbourne   W

GWS          L

Hawthorn     W

 

5. GWS     14-7-1

6. Hawthorn    14-8

7. Geelong    14-8

8. Sydney    14-8

9. Melbourne 13-9 

   

[Diamond_Jim 12,772]

28 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

A disastrous and heart breaking scenario which sees us missing the finals on 13 wins:

MELBOURNE:

GG      W

Sydney   L

WCE    L

GWS   W

 

GEELONG:

Richmond  W

Hawthorn   L

Freo            W

GC            W

 

HAWTHORN

Essendon    W

Geelong      W

St Kilda     W

Sydney     L

 

SYDNEY:

Collingwood  W

Melbourne   W

GWS          L

Hawthorn     W

 

5. GWS     14-7-1

6. Hawthorn    14-8

7. Geelong    14-8

8. Sydney    14-8

9. Melbourne 13-9 

   

Unlikely to occur but wonderfully worked scenario.

I think we need to win 3 out of 4 to go into the finals with any sort of momentum. Given relative form lines, wins against GC and Sydney are a must and it's about time we won a 50/50contest. Anything less we are just making up the numbers.

What I find even more interesting in coming weeks is the positions of the interstate sides and who has the home ground advantage.I know Bulldogs did it in 2016 but hard to see that replicated.

Edited July 30, 2018 by Diamond_Jim

[jnrmac 20,375]

1 hour ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Have you done the maths on what is required to move the percentages at this time of the year.

Last year we had one of the lowest percentages in the group vying for the 8. This year we have the highest percentage in the league bar Richmond.

 It's not a factor this year.

Far more important is to practice a defence style that allows us to stop the run ons we have seen in the last two weeks. We're not going anywhere unless our defence improves.

This

[Nasher 33,686]

31 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

A disastrous and heart breaking scenario which sees us missing the finals on 13 wins:

MELBOURNE:

GG      W

Sydney   L

WCE    L

GWS   W

 

GEELONG:

Richmond  W

Hawthorn   L

Freo            W

GC            W

 

HAWTHORN

Essendon    W

Geelong      W

St Kilda     W

Sydney     L

 

SYDNEY:

Collingwood  W

Melbourne   W

GWS          L

Hawthorn     W

 

5. GWS     14-7-1

6. Hawthorn    14-8

7. Geelong    14-8

8. Sydney    14-8

9. Melbourne 13-9 

   

The Sydney that lost to Gold Coast and Essendon in consecutive weeks is going to beat Collingwood, Melbourne and Hawthorn? K.

[Demonland 74,430]

The sliding doors nature to the run home is killing me. 2nd or 9th or somewhere in between. Please transport me to the good alternate reality.

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,548]

21 minutes ago, Nasher said:

The Sydney that lost to Gold Coast and Essendon in consecutive weeks is going to beat Collingwood, Melbourne and Hawthorn? K.

It's a scenario, not a given.

I still think Sydney have some bullets left. Write them off at your own peril.

[Grimes Times 1,278]

52 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

A disastrous and heart breaking scenario which sees us missing the finals on 13 wins:

MELBOURNE:

GG      W

Sydney   L

WCE    L

GWS   W

 

GEELONG:

Richmond  W

Hawthorn   L

Freo            W

GC            W

 

HAWTHORN

Essendon    W

Geelong      W

St Kilda     W

Sydney     L

 

SYDNEY:

Collingwood  W

Melbourne   W

GWS          L

Hawthorn     W

 

5. GWS     14-7-1

6. Hawthorn    14-8

7. Geelong    14-8

8. Sydney    14-8

9. Melbourne 13-9 

   

You can add north to that list who should/could win all 4 remaining games and end on 14 wins.

We need to win 3 more to be sure. If we only manage 2 wins 2 looses we require either Haw or Gee to go 2-2 as well in the last 4.

What we need to cheer for is Rich to beat Gee. Ess to beat Haw and then haw v gee the following week one has to loose allows Melb to get away with a 2-2 record and get in with superior percentage.

[loges 6,767]

7 minutes ago, Grimes Times said:

You can add north to that list who should/could win all 4 remaining games and end on 14 wins.

We need to win 3 more to be sure. If we only manage 2 wins 2 looses we require either Haw or Gee to go 2-2 as well in the last 4.

What we need to cheer for is Rich to beat Gee. Ess to beat Haw and then haw v gee the following week one has to loose allows Melb to get away with a 2-2 record and get in with superior percentage.

Sydney are struggling !

[Lucifers Hero 40,716]

This week's summary for the last four rounds (and I've shown the number of 8 point games for each team).

 

Comments:

• Tigers entrenched at the top.
• WCE have probably done enough to keep 2nd spot.
• Port (not playing well and a really tough draw) and Pies (lots of injuries) can certainly slide out of the top 4 with GWS best placed to replace them. 
• Melb have a tough set of games but should make the 8.  
• If Hawks roll Ess this week they will make it. 
• Thanks to us the Cats will make it.
• Sydney will struggle to get back in the 8.
• Roos look  to have an easy draw but they go to the Gabba (Lions) and AO (Adelaide) so I reckon they will miss the 8. 
• Ess:  Need to win all 4 to overcome low %.

We are one of the inform sides so I think we can win all the games.  But will be happy with two good wins and two small losses to keep our % up.

It would be very funny if the Roos get in the 8 and push Scott's twin brother's Cats out!!

My dearest footy wish is for Ess to miss the finals!!

Edited October 21, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[Philthy 284]

I am going to back the boys in to win all 4!!!!