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Ladder predictor

SFebes
SFebes
in Melbourne Demons

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On 6/14/2018 at 5:39 AM, timbo said:

Not sure we have the coaching nous and personnel or preparation tonshut Sydney down (QBW execution and preparation or lack thereof massively worrying )

on buddy, does anyone know what Leigh Matthews is doing that day?

Hitman Maynard might be a good sacrificial lamb for Buddy. Ha ha ha.

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    Ladder predictors are a waste of time. Here is the only prediction meaningful - No-one can beat Richmond on the MCG

     

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    1 hour ago, bobby1554 said:

    Ladder predictors are a waste of time. Here is the only prediction meaningful - No-one can beat Richmond on the MCG

     

    It’s just a bit of fun, gets people discussing our draw, don’t take so seriously. We can beat tigers with a full side

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    On 6/14/2018 at 2:40 AM, Petraccattack said:

    I mentioned in another thread that we can make the finals with 13 wins as long as we keep our percentage up over 120. The ladder predictor was in line with that.

    Has a team on 13 wins ever missed finals under the Final 8? 13 wins almost guarantees participation. 12 wins and % usually gets the job done. 

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    2 hours ago, Radar Detector said:

    Has a team on 13 wins ever missed finals under the Final 8? 13 wins almost guarantees participation. 12 wins and % usually gets the job done. 

    Not under the current final 8 system (i.e. since 2000). But Carlton missed the finals in 1992 with a 14-8 record. 

    Having said that, running through the ladder predictor shows that it's entirely feasible for us to miss the finals even if we get to 13-9. It would just be so MFC, wouldn't it? Last year we break the record for smallest percentage gap to miss, then we go on to be the first team in the modern era to miss with 13 wins.

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    2 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

    Not under the current final 8 system (i.e. since 2000). But Carlton missed the finals in 1992 with a 14-8 record. 

    Having said that, running through the ladder predictor shows that it's entirely feasible for us to miss the finals even if we get to 13-9. It would just be so MFC, wouldn't it? Last year we break the record for smallest percentage gap to miss, then we go on to be the first team in the modern era to miss with 13 wins.

    Can I get odds on that because right now I will put money on it if so.

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    While we were poor against the filth, our prior six weeks were very good - excellent. If we can bring that form for the last ten weeks we will win 6-7 if the last 10 matches. That gives us 14-15 wins and a place in the eight, maybe even sneaking into top four if results fall our way!

    Somewhere between 4-6 and at least one finals win would be a good progression from last year. 

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    9 minutes ago, SFebey said:

    Updated running prediction

     

    image.png.87073195006c581f14d121f65e081396.png

    Awesome WCE away Week 1 with them getting a 5 goal umpire assisted head start

     

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    51 minutes ago, SFebey said:

    Updated running prediction

     

    image.png.87073195006c581f14d121f65e081396.png

    North only winning another 4? They should have 6 in the bag without trying and another two 50/50

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    Reckon we will be 9th again. We can’t progress using players like ANB and Harmes as core rather than depth players and are carrying geriatrics like Vince , Lewis and dare I say it Jones. We need another 2 good draft years to progress much further.

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    22 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

    North only winning another 4? They should have 6 in the bag without trying and another two 50/50

    Do the predictor, have a crack.

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    56 minutes ago, Demon3 said:

    Elimination final v Pies. 

    ladder pred.JPG

    This is around what I've got as well - North losing to the Dogs would have been a major bonus for us. Thanks Mitch Wallis you campaigner.

    Edit - There is a North vs WCE game in Hobart in Round 19 that is massive, the Roos winning there wouldn't be an upset and they get that then we're likely cactus unless we beat Adelaide + one of Sydney, Geelong or West Coast. 

    Edited by Supermercado
    Pessimism

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    40 minutes ago, chook fowler said:

    Reckon we will be 9th again. We can’t progress using players like ANB and Harmes as core rather than depth players and are carrying geriatrics like Vince , Lewis and dare I say it Jones. We need another 2 good draft years to progress much further.

    We should also give the kids like Petty a game to see how they play, you never know we just might find one or two who can get us playing at the next level?

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    The predictor auto tip looks like it uses a lot of historical data which is as sound a basis as any to predict on. A week 1 Elimination Final flogging at the hands of Collingwood does not make me happy. I would much prefer to play anybody else (and lose to them). Literally anyone.

    Actually I don't know if anyone has done this, but I ran the predictor about 10 times and variously had us

    7th playing Pies or Cats W1 @6th

    6th playing Cats  or Pies @ 7th W1 (reversal of above)

    5th playing GWS, Hawks or Roos @ 8th

    No scenarios put us 8th or out of 8, and no scenarios put us above 5th. Of the above games I reckon we could account for GWS, Hawks, Roos and maybe Cats (low confidence though). Confidence low v pies.

    ==

    Some big games

    Pies V Tiges @ G R 19. Crikey.

    Tigers Cats @ G R20. Crikey.

    image.png.5b54c67a0dcdf874c34f337db7e55d15.png

    Edited by timbo

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    Okay, I've had a bit of a play with the ladder predictor and it seems to be that the top 6 is pretty settled; I have the hawks as high as 5th given expected results.  

    The final two spots come down to Roos, Dees and the Pies.  A few games with these sides are  50-50, but on the law of averages the effect will be either 9th place or a bottom half of the 8.   

    Reality is the Dee's cannot afford to drop a game to a weak team and needs win a game against gws or better.  The draw of the other teams doesn't allow for any other slipups.

    Still if we can't win these game then reality is we also don't deserve to be there!!!

     

     

     

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    43 minutes ago, Ungarie boy said:

    Okay, I've had a bit of a play with the ladder predictor and it seems to be that the top 6 is pretty settled; I have the hawks as high as 5th given expected results.  

    The final two spots come down to Roos, Dees and the Pies.  A few games with these sides are  50-50, but on the law of averages the effect will be either 9th place or a bottom half of the 8.   

    Reality is the Dee's cannot afford to drop a game to a weak team and needs win a game against gws or better.  The draw of the other teams doesn't allow for any other slipups.

    Still if we can't win these game then reality is we also don't deserve to be there!!!

     

     

     

    If we lose to all of Freo, Sydney, Adelaide, Cats and WCE we're done. Even with flogging Suns, Bulldogs, Saints by 10g + and GSW by 2 pts.

    If we miss based on this %, heads must roll. Or else I want a scene from GoT: Shame, Shame, Shame.

    See below.

    image.png.c0f8d771890e49476cd74abb262fcf7d.png

    Dawks have a muy fantastico run home

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    On 6/25/2018 at 11:17 AM, timbo said:

    Awesome WCE away Week 1 with them getting a 5 goal umpire assisted head start

     

    No way will pies end 4th with their difficult draw without treloar

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    I have us peaking at 2nd at the start of one of the rounds, but then dropping to 9th by season's end and losing the last three. That's with a mostly conservative estimate, and few upsets in matches between teams with more than 5 places between them on the ladder.

    Sorry, fam.

    PS. Sorry for the image ?

    Screenshot_20180629-154256.thumb.png.e05c2e812c53d13c97965935615ba7c4.png

    Edited by praha

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    14 minutes ago, praha said:

    I have us peaking at 2nd at the start of one of the rounds, but then dropping to 9th by season's end and losing the last three. That's with a mostly conservative estimate, and few upsets in matches between teams with more than 5 places between them on the ladder.

    Sorry, fam.

    Screenshot_20180629-154256.thumb.png.e05c2e812c53d13c97965935615ba7c4.png

    Same, I had us to second I think after winning this week by 10goals, I think pipping Freo then rolling the Suns by 10goals. Beat GWS 2 pts in last round as must win and still miss by a game.

    Losses to Geelong, Radelaide, WCE and Sydney - all games in range 5pts to 5 goals. Loss to GFC 5 pts, Radelaide 20, WCE 5 goals, Syd 6 goals.

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    Adelaide have  WC, Tiges and Cats so will be 6 wins 10 losses when we meet them.  season over.   we should beat them

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    16 minutes ago, DubDee said:

    Adelaide have  WC, Tiges and Cats so will be 6 wins 10 losses when we meet them.  season over.   we should beat them

    Like Collingwood and North last year?

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