I find it hard to ignore that the three "signature" wins in the last three seasons have all come without Hogan. 2015 in Geelong, Hawthorn last year and now Adelaide.

What does this mean?

He has proved he can be effective forward, floating into the backline, leading up the wings and also centre clearances and genuine onball.

Hogan is clearly an outstanding player and a potential game winner, but what is his best value to the team? 

A genuine utility, which he has done in some games this year, who plays wherever he is needed based on game situation?

Permanent back man to shore up the part of the ground where when under pressure marking targets and a cool head for disposal can be lacking?

My feel is default position should be the backline but not as a one on one defender, with his role tactical based on how the game is unfolding as he is the most versatile single player Goodwin has at his disposal. When things are going poorly, having him stranded deep forward seems a waste.

I think he has shown his best games when he's played as more of a deep CHF than a true FF. When he's a deep FF we seem to be one dimensional with our forward entries and try to pop it on his head. This appears to be a combination of us assuming he'll take the mark or compete, and that he doesn't seem to lead hard enough. 

I think when things click for him we will be a much better team with him but we seem to be too predictable with him as our key forward. 

Yep, best plays higher with Weid in the goal square. 

Our forward line is way less predictable, way more efficient and way more fun to watch when he's not there.

The Adelaide and Essendon wins back that up.

A few weeks back there was the suggestion that he plays part time in the ruck in combo with Watts or Pedo etc and spends the rest of the time as either CHF or Ff. I like this thought as it forces him to compete (i.e. Ruck contest) and then back up his ruck work around the ball, in effect teaching him what we need him doing doing forward. Sure he may be bloody tired doing this, but it will build his tank rapidly and get him into the games when he is in one of those moods.

1 hour ago, Lampers said:

I find it hard to ignore that the three "signature" wins in the last three seasons have all come without Hogan. 2015 in Geelong, Hawthorn last year and now Adelaide.

What does this mean?

It's called the "no expectation effect".

Nothing less, nothing more.

If we played exactly the same with Hogan instead of weid we still would have won. I think it's more everyone's expectation of the result is changed, or at least significantly lowered, when Hogan is out. 

I am hopefully that like the Geelong game a few years ago that seemed like the making of Gawn, that weid takes his effort yesterday and keeps going. The goals and marking will come with a bit more size but the competitiveness was great

It's a puzzling one.

Has the forward-line functioned better in his absences? Are we less predictable and lower the eyes going in? Do we trap it in better and disrupt opposition exit strategy?

If that were the case then it would bear out in the stats - overall points for - goals/scoring shots per i50 etc. It doesn't. 

Nor can Hogan's absence really account for us turning up for four quarters and being ferocious in the contest across the ground. Unless we lift because we think his absence is that detrimental that we have to play out of our skins?

But we've also lost matches in a crappy fashion recently without Hogan and won others in a dominant way with him on board.

Coincidence can be the only real conclusion.

 

 

I think we can make too much of Hogan's influence in terms of score line in the 4 games he has played this season.

Our forward line was very effective last night because our ball movement was quick and effective resulting in a very open forward line. We kicked into dangerous spots, brought the ball to ground well and our forward tackling pressure was excellent.

In the games Hogan has played our pressure, ball movement and skill execution has been much poorer and the backline has been flooded. Add to this Hogan hasn't been at his best in contested marking, which is understandable, but I think he has battled on well and his second efforts/pressure were good v Hawthorn.

As long as he brings pressure and presents as an option - bringing the ball to ground for our smalls and taking contested marks - he is an important player to our team/structure if we are to play finals. I think we will see some very good football from Hogan and some important wins which he heavily influenced throughout this season.

8 minutes ago, Red and Blue realist said:

If we played exactly the same with Hogan instead of weid we still would have won. I think it's more everyone's expectation of the result is changed, or at least significantly lowered, when Hogan is out. 

I am hopefully that like the Geelong game a few years ago that seemed like the making of Gawn, that weid takes his effort yesterday and keeps going. The goals and marking will come with a bit more size but the competitiveness was great

The Weed played his role and it was an encouraging performance from a young forward. Loved his tackle on Sloane and he worked hard. Not really concerned that he was run down a couple of times as he will learn the speed of the game with more experience.

Our forward entries are better when it's a chaos ball bouncing every which way, no joke. Doesn't allow the intercept marks and talls to out mark us and relies on our Small forwards and pressure.

My understanding is he will be out for an extended period of time...

Irrespective of his current issues, I'm still of the opinion he's not made of the right stuff to be the player we expect him to be. 

9 minutes ago, Dees 41231 said:

My understanding is he will be out for an extended period of time...

Based on what?

1 hour ago, ProDee said:

It's called the "no expectation effect".

Nothing less, nothing more.

I think we are going to agree on this one Pro

20 minutes ago, america de cali said:

Irrespective of his current issues, I'm still of the opinion he's not made of the right stuff to be the player we expect him to be. 

I just think we all expect him to be playing at his peak straight away, whereas he won't get there until his mid to late 20s. I imagine the expectations on here would be vastly different to what the coaches want. Let him get to 50 or 100 games before you give up on him

When hogan doesnt play we lower our eyes going into inside 50.

When he does we kick it long to him.

36 minutes ago, Dees 41231 said:

My understanding is he will be out for an extended period of time...

 

I hate these posts.

I feel we will be similar to Hawthorn and Buddy over the last few years, we will be good whether Hogan is there or not.

I think when hogan isn't there we are a bit harder to predict, but we are definitely a better side with him in there and playing well, probably still need to lower our eyes more often and learn lessons from the way we play without him maybe 

1 hour ago, Skuit said:

It's a puzzling one.

Has the forward-line functioned better in his absences? Are we less predictable and lower the eyes going in? Do we trap it in better and disrupt opposition exit strategy?

If that were the case then it would bear out in the stats - overall points for - goals/scoring shots per i50 etc. It doesn't. 

Nor can Hogan's absence really account for us turning up for four quarters and being ferocious in the contest across the ground. Unless we lift because we think his absence is that detrimental that we have to play out of our skins?

But we've also lost matches in a crappy fashion recently without Hogan and won others in a dominant way with him on board.

Coincidence can be the only real conclusion.

 

 

Agree Skuit, the fact that the forward line can function without him opens up the possibility of swinging T Mac forward during games and Hogan back,  they play differently so this would make us less predictable and more versatile with a number of tall swingmen in Watts, TMac and Hogan and throw in Pedo. 

Have to agree the question about Hogan is an interesting one.  Every chance he will end up being a super KPF.  But, on the other hand, with TMac showing he could possible succeed up forward, it begs the question about whether it wouldn't be such a bad idea to give Hogan an extended run at a Key back role.

Wouldn't be the first time that has been a resounding success for Melb.  I well remember when Steve Smith first started with Melb.  Was expected to be a sensational Forward.  But, after a period of mediocre success up forward, they swung him to the backline, where he became an almost overnight sensation as a Key Backman, becoming one of Melb's best ever.

Then, there was another half forward called Gary Hardeman, who also wasn't all that flash up forward, but who became a great backman for us.

So, could the same end up being true for Hogan?  Time will tell...

 

Hogan takes not only the best defender but usually draws a second defender in the air. This makes Garlett much more dangerous at ground level.

Let's not read too much into the wins in his absence, and remember the games we won because of his influence up forward.

Now is not the time to be over analysing our forward. He is having a tough time and needs some support.

If we give him the type of delivery that we provided last night to our forwards then look out. 

2 hours ago, Dees 41231 said:

My understanding is he will be out for an extended period of time...

And the basis of your understanding is...?

Pass the sauce please.

Edited May 14, 20178 yr by Moonshadow