Welcome to Demonland: Jake Lever

[Ethan Tremblay 30,856]

40 minutes ago, chook fowler said:

My sphincter went into spasm when I saw the deal. Hope he's worth it.

That’s only because you knew Adelaide weren’t using any lube. 

Edited October 12, 2017 by Ethan Tremblay

[MudDogs Gawn Win.. someday 499]

I hope like [censored] that our first rd pick to adelaide next year is at THE VERY WORST PICK 11!!

Hopefully we reap the same rewards that Richmond did paying overs for Prestia!

[Purple77 1,001]

I mean, gut feel/initial reaction was that we overpaid.

But, really, he did finish in the All-Aus squad at 21 years of age... which Treloar didn't do. IMO, we probably paid the market price in the end, but with a hint of "we could have paid less" about it.

[beelzebub 23,347]

2 minutes ago, Dappa Dan said:

There's a lot of confusion about that rule. Geelong broke it, but requested permission from the AFL, which they gave. I feel like it's something that would have cancelled the trade had that rule still been in effect. So we should be ok.

Im not sure if ANYONE actually understands how it works.....least of all the AFL !!

[Ethan Tremblay 30,856]

I think peoples ego’s get in the way when it comes to these trades. It’s not about ‘beating’ or ‘screwing over’ another team at the trade table. 

Welcome Jake.

Edited October 12, 2017 by Ethan Tremblay

[Gator 17,332]

Hindsight:

If the 2012 draft was done again Viney would be a top 5 draft pick, probably top 3.

If the 2013 draft was done again and Hogan participated instead of being a 2012 mini draft pick he'd be a top 5 pick.

If the 2014 draft was held again Petracca and Lever would be top 3.

If the 2015 draft was done again Oliver would arguably be no.1, but certainly top 2.

That's 5 elite talents from the pointy end of the draft over the last 5 drafts periods.  Another club would be hard pressed to match that (other than perhaps GWS).  

 

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

2 minutes ago, Tony Tea said:

 ("Next year's draft" is always a superdraft.) 

Well that's not true at all. An above average draft is talked about as a superdraft. And a slightly shallow draft is looked on as "weak." People go to the extreme of whatever the popular opinion is. This year was spoken about as a "weak" year for the last 3 years. Next year has been a superdraft for the last 18 months.

One annoying thing about these popular opinions is they tend to be self fulfilling. Predicted superdrafts always end up being exactly that. And weak drafts always end up with only a few AA players. You should have seen the pasting I got when I suggested it was a shame we got the first two picks in a weak draft year when we took Scully and Trengove. Now go back and look at that draft. It stunk. The predictions weren't wrong.

[Red and Bluebeard 2,084]

Just now, beelzebub said:

Im not sure if ANYONE actually understands how it works.....least of all the AFL !!

If someone the AFL likes breaks the rule, then they can get away with it with a little bit of lip service. If it is someone the AFL doesn't like, they get hit with a ton of penalties. Simples!

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

2 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Im not sure if ANYONE actually understands how it works.....least of all the AFL !!

It's one of the funniest things happening in AFL at the moment. Now that we're bringing in draft day trading, I think this rule will be considered an oddity of history.

[buck_nekkid 5,856]

Confucius say “Lever in hand, better than 2 fulcrum in bush”

smart fella, that Confucius.

Lever ready to go now, draft pick 2018 may be good 2020.

behavioural economics here is clear.  We have taken the lower risk payout early rather than higher risk payout later.  With optimism bias, we may believe we could grab 2 superstars with those picks.  Reality suggests our strike rate is lower than that.

we also have a good recent record of lower picks delivering the goods.

The deal is about lower risk, faster reward with a dose or reality thrown in.  

On this basis - and where we are at, it’s a good deal.  We will know in the next couple of years if it is a great one.

[Gator 17,332]

In essence:

Lever (top 3 worthy and a known quantity from 2014) + 35

For

Pick 10 + a pick in the teens in 2018 (hopefully)

Plus loose change where we're better off.

It's a no brainer.

[Redleg 40,895]

1 hour ago, binman said:

You agree with yourself?

 

Not always.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

4 minutes ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

I think peoples ego’s get in the way when it comes to these trades. It’s not about ‘beating’ or ‘screwing over’ another team at the trade table. 

No disrespect, but that's EXACTLY what it's about. Trade tables and free agency if done badly can be the difference. Noone knows that better than MFC fans.

Everyone's making good reasons for why it's a good trade. And good reasons for why it's not. The only real question that will last into the coming years is... what's better... Lever and no 2018 first rounder. Or Lever AND a 2018 first rounder. The second option is always preferable.

I've noticed the glass-half-full folks on here haven't made the argument "There's no way we could have kept that 2018 first rounder." I suspect the truth is we could have, with a lot of messing around with later picks. THAT'S the point. 

Pick 35 could be the next Hunt. Lever could go on to win 3 Norm Smiths and a couple of Blueys. It's irrelevant. We'll never know now what we could have done with that extra first round pick. The pick that everyone seems to agree we could have kept.

I'm still waiting with bated breath though. Two second rounders (albeit late) and the Watts trade. You never know. We could find ourselves with, say, the Pies 2018 first rounder. There's no doubt that as of now, the Pies 2018 first rounder will end up being an earlier pick than our first rounder in 2018.

[Adam The God 30,219]

41 minutes ago, ProDee said:

Hindsight:

If the 2012 draft was done again Viney would be a top 5 draft pick, probably top 3.

If the 2013 draft was done again and Hogan participated instead of being a 2012 mini draft pick he'd be a top 5 pick.

If the 2014 draft was held again Petracca and Lever would be top 3.

If the 2015 draft was done again Oliver would arguably be no.1, but certainly top 2.

That's 5 elite talents from the pointy end of the draft over the last 5 drafts periods.  Another club would be hard pressed to match that (other than perhaps GWS).  

 

How's that for a spine too? Elite talents in every area of the field, all in the same age bracket. It's a bit insane really.

If Salem and Gus reach close to their potential, we are going to have a scary amount of elite talent. That's not even including the support crew of Hunt, Hibberd, Jetta and even Jones and Tyson.

Very exciting. And all pretty much down to this current FD. The one some are [censored] on.

Edited October 12, 2017 by A F

[FarNorthernD 5,861]

Using the AFL points system and assuming no great ladder improvement from us next year we have effectively given up pick 4 for Lever. I think everyone here would do that deal. Hopefully that is a worst case scenario. If we improve like we expect and Adelaide falter that could translate to pick 5-6

Also whilst next years draft may well be very good whatever player we would have got would take at least 2 years in the system before we got significant results. That brings us to the 2021 season. Lever will be lining up round one next year. 

[nosoupforme 3,085]

On 10/6/2017 at 5:56 PM, buck_nekkid said:

The media are paid to speculate - and to create controversy and click bait.  At the end of the day, our FD isn’t sitting there saying “wow!  We got that so wrong!  Because Weaful Wee said he is worth a first rounder, we need to change our thinking”.  Ignore the idiots, ignore the chaff.  

Lever is not worth 2 first round picks. However if that is what it took to get him over the line ?????????.

And they say that next years draft is the strongest since 2001, the Riewoldt Draft and so on. Wait and see. Thats what we are going to be doing.

[DSP 1,488]

6 minutes ago, fndee said:

Using the AFL points system and assuming no great ladder improvement from us next year we have effectively given up pick 4 for Lever. I think everyone here would do that deal. Hopefully that is a worst case scenario. If we improve like we expect and Adelaide falter that could translate to pick 5-6

Also whilst next years draft may well be very good whatever player we would have got would take at least 2 years in the system before we got significant results. That brings us to the 2021 season. Lever will be lining up round one next year. 

Any club would give up pick 4 for Lever.

He is ready to go. No need for development. Slots in and we have 3 All Australian Squad defenders at our disposal.

This trade will pay off in spades soon enough.

[Willmoy1947 4,085]

3 hours ago, binman said:

Agree.

Leaving aside questions about the weird homo erotic analogies (we've been reamed, bent over again etc etc) the deal is fine.

Considering Taylor's record we could well have a smokey earmarked for pick 35 or 3rd round and as we all know outside say the top 12 the draft is a lottery anyway.

Many people argued we were bent over with Melk and even Hibberd. Melk is in our best 22 and Hibberd has been a suburb pickup - have we ever recruited a player who got selected in the AA team in their first year with us (or even subsequently?).

As you say PD Lever is a perfect fit for our back line and i have no doubt it is the reason we were so keen to land him. 

Th other thing that has to be factored in is doing the trade early makes our trading a lot simpler now.  We know what have in hand and what we can't offer. If the lever trade had held up other deals - which it may well have if not done to say the final day - this would have had unintended consequences and may well have cost us a player we were keen on.

Good job Mahoney and crew.

Good summary BM and to cap it off, this bloke is a man of his word. Forget about your Managers and all that he stuck with the job he wanted done and no wavering whatsoever,  from what i could sense......

[Redleg 40,895]

42 minutes ago, ProDee said:

Hindsight:

If the 2012 draft was done again Viney would be a top 5 draft pick, probably top 3.

If the 2013 draft was done again and Hogan participated instead of being a 2012 mini draft pick he'd be a top 5 pick.

If the 2014 draft was held again Petracca and Lever would be top 3.

If the 2015 draft was done again Oliver would arguably be no.1, but certainly top 2.

That's 5 elite talents from the pointy end of the draft over the last 5 drafts periods.  Another club would be hard pressed to match that (other than perhaps GWS).  

 

We are being rebuilt very well, in order to be a flag contender and adding Lever today was another vital cog.

It continues.

[Willmoy1947 4,085]

3 hours ago, Moonshadow said:

Rather than look it as 2 x 1st rounders, look at what number the picks are. So over two years it's a pick 10 and (arguably) pick 14 with a swap of later picks. And we get the best young defender in the game, recently in AA squad, massive leadership potential. 

 

Trump impersonation.....

[John Crow Batty 8,863]

Seriously, when was the last time a player with his high stature and profile landed at the club? Must have been Jeff White two decades ago. 

[binman 42,891]

39 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Not always.

i know the feeling.

[Bang Bang Bang 5,824]

47 minutes ago, Dappa Dan said:

Well that's not true at all. An above average draft is talked about as a superdraft. And a slightly shallow draft is looked on as "weak." People go to the extreme of whatever the popular opinion is. This year was spoken about as a "weak" year for the last 3 years. Next year has been a superdraft for the last 18 months.

One annoying thing about these popular opinions is they tend to be self fulfilling. Predicted superdrafts always end up being exactly that. And weak drafts always end up with only a few AA players. You should have seen the pasting I got when I suggested it was a shame we got the first two picks in a weak draft year when we took Scully and Trengove. Now go back and look at that draft. It stunk. The predictions weren't wrong.

Two things.

Predicted superdrafts hardly ever end up being as good as projected. Rave about 2001 all you want, but then came 2006, 2008 and 2012, all of which have flunked. Meanwhile, 2013 and 2015 were considered weaker yet look the best of recent years.

Secondly, we could have picked Scully (2x AA squad), Martin (best player in comp), Talia (AA) and Fyfe (AA) with 1,2,11 and 18 in 2009. That's just off the top of my head.

[binman 42,891]

Just now, binman said:

i know the feeling.

no you don't

[praha 11,240]

This trade is essentially backing in the current group of players and coaching team. If we finish lower than 4th we've absolutely gifted Adelaide two good young players for one. 

This is the epitome of the club drinking its own bathwater. I don't mind it, and good to see the club backing itself in. But gee, it's an immense risk.