Gainline - An Interesting Take on Team Sport Success

[rjay 25,357]

Check under this link around the 2min mark on the Hungry for sport page      11:19 Ben Darwin; Gainline.biz on Hungry for Sport 

I thought Demonlanders might be interested in discussing the ideas brought forward by Ben Darwin (starts around the 2min mark). He's researched pretty much all the major team sports around the world, not just AFL to come to his conclusions.

I guess it grabbed me as I must admit to agreeing with his conclusions and have thought along these lines from observation rather than research.  Of course I also liked that his research showed us to be in a good place as club going forward, also that Collingwood were in screwed.

My take on his research is that if you build a stable club, recruit (in AFL language the draft), develop your own players (you can augment the list but not too many outsiders) and don't look to recruit big fish as saviours, then success will come...

Edited February 15, 2017 by rjay

[Demons2riseagain 36]

1 hour ago, rjay said:

Check under this link around the 2min mark on the Hungry for sport page      11:19 Ben Darwin; Gainline.biz on Hungry for Sport 

I thought Demonlanders might be interested in discussing the ideas brought forward by Ben Darwin (starts around the 2min mark). He's researched pretty much all the major team sports around the world, not just AFL to come to his conclusions.

I guess it grabbed me as I must admit to agreeing with his conclusions and have thought along these lines from observation rather than research.  Of course I also liked that his research showed us to be in a good place as club going forward, also that Collingwood were in screwed.

My take on his research is that if you build a stable club, recruit (in AFL language the draft), develop your own players (you can augment the list but not too many outsiders) and don't look to recruit big fish as saviours, then success will come...

It certainly makes sense. Interesting that he talks of statistically, no coach can do better than a %5 gain when big churn occurs. Lookout bucks and Eddie!

[Sir Why You Little 37,342]

Interesting logic

i tend to agree although our years with ND were all over the place

[rjay 25,357]

7 hours ago, Demons2riseagain said:

It certainly makes sense. Interesting that he talks of statistically, no coach can do better than a %5 gain when big churn occurs. Lookout bucks and Eddie!

Geelong are another one to watch. They built their premiership sides from their own but have moved away from that model.

Can the Danger inspired Cats win another flag or will it be a fail?

[praha 11,253]

6 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Interesting logic

i tend to agree although our years with ND were all over the place

So many variables that caused that, though. As a club we had poor facilities, poor standards, little accountability both on and off the field. We had coaching stability but a high list turnover and constant stream of injuries throughout each season. Daniher also threw in the towel early in seasons (around half-way) if we weren't going too well. As he did in 1999, 2001, 2003. I think Danners was among the league's first "tankers". He was just too smart to get caught. 

[Sir Why You Little 37,342]

44 minutes ago, praha said:

So many variables that caused that, though. As a club we had poor facilities, poor standards, little accountability both on and off the field. We had coaching stability but a high list turnover and constant stream of injuries throughout each season. Daniher also threw in the towel early in seasons (around half-way) if we weren't going too well. As he did in 1999, 2001, 2003. I think Danners was among the league's first "tankers". He was just too smart to get caught. 

Maybe you are right but the "Bounce Back" was so strong!

98-06 is an era only a psychiatrist could understand!!

[Moonshadow 17,678]

Still, if a big fish wanted to come to us and it filled a need would we really say no? 

[3183 Dee 2,915]

7 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Maybe you are right but the "Bounce Back" was so strong!

98-06 is an era only a psychiatrist could understand!!

And 2007-2013 needs a clinical psychiatrist!

[ArtificialWisdom 4,045]

it will be interesting to see how his research compares us to St Kilda. Given we tend to be importing 1 to 3 players a year where as St Kilda seems to be linked to import every player in the league. Possibly with the theory being "If we have all the players then we cant lose" 

[Sir Why You Little 37,342]

1 minute ago, 3183 Dee said:

And 2007-2013 needs a clinical psychiatrist!

Yes indeed

[FarNorthernD 5,861]

13 hours ago, rjay said:

Check under this link around the 2min mark on the Hungry for sport page      11:19 Ben Darwin; Gainline.biz on Hungry for Sport 

.....................

My take on his research is that if you build a stable club, recruit (in AFL language the draft), develop your own players (you can augment the list but not too many outsiders) and don't look to recruit big fish as saviours, then success will come...

So this guy has taken all the emotion out of it and scientifically worked out that Collingwood are the most likely to go down and Melbourne the most probable to rise. It may not still be Valentines Day but I want to buy this guy some roses

[DeeSpencer 26,498]

Chicken v Egg is always my problem with this thinking.

The teams that are stable and only augment their list often do that because they've got the right coach, the star players and the right culture. If you don't have that set up then keeping stability with the wrong set up will just prolong the pain.

The Bulldogs tried the stability approach under Macca but realised the culture wasn't right, the coach wasn't really working out and they were missing some important parts of the playing group. The captain walked out, the coach got the lemonade and they spent big time on Tom Boyd. All kind of moves that go against the working theory here. But now the culture is and coaching is probably stable and I doubt they'll be making wholesale changes any time in the next decade really.

[DeeSpencer 26,498]

The encouraging thing about the Demons recent build has been we have some confidence in Misson in fitness, Viney as list manager, Taylor in recruiting, Mahoney as GM football and several of the assistant coaches. 

I think a big part of why unstable programs don't succeed is because every time they fire a coach they have to rebuild most of their football department and do that without any football IQ around the place. As Dees fans we know all about that. 

Not to be too negative but I think we might have to make some big calls over the next few years if things aren't going to plan - be that on coaches, players, footy department staff etc but this time it shouldn't be a panicked tear down job like in years previous but actually informed decision.