Back in 1987 after a promissing start to the season we faltered somewhat and after round 12 we only had five wins and seemingly little chance to the make the finals. We all know what happened then. This season has started in a somewhat similar fashion. Sparkling form mixed with some backsliding performances and a radical new game plan that hasn't quite clicked in a consistent manner. A missing ingredient is confidence to maintain 100% effort and work rate with good sides  and shake off some long standing bogeys.

Edited June 13, 20169 yr by america de cali

Collingwood, we just beat Collingwood mate. They'll be counting themselves lucky if they stay out of the bottom 4. I like the enthusiasm but temper your expectations a bit. 

Can't see us winning 5+ more games.

We've had an incredible run with few injuries to key players and our second half of the season is very difficult.

Our backline is still very dodgy. We are lucky that Collingwood are genuine poo at the minute because good teams would have absolutely punished some of our back-play yesterday.

You can't play finals with a backline of two McDonalds and Frost as your key pillars.

 

It's hard to gauge given our form oscillations earlier in the year. But of the current top 8 teams we've played, we knocked off GWS, and pushed the Kangas and Hawks. So we might be a chance against a wounded or napping top 8 team, if we can consistently string together our best for a month or three. 

Which, having just said it, feels unlikely. But you never know. 

Big game vs Swans, must win some of these against the odds to stay in touch and build confidence and form.

Don't think they will make finals "but could have a big say in shaping them. "

Just now, america de cali said:

Back in 1987 after a promissing start to the season we faltered somewhat and after round 12 we only had five wins and seemingly little chance to the make the finals. We all know what happened then. This season has started in a somewhat similar fashion. Sparkling form mixed with some backsliding performances and a radical new game plan that hasn't quite clicked in a consistent manner. A missing ingredient is confidence to maintain 100% effort and work rate with good sides  and shake off some long standing bogeys.

I like the sentiment mate, although I still think we're one year away from playing finals.  We still have our inconsistent moments and, as young sides do, we make mistakes at crucial times.

But you can see the progression there.  While rolling Collingwood is nothing to get all that excited about, what we did see was a backline that was far more cohesive.  It worked harder and won plenty of contests and we saw how much better we look when it occurs.

Our next two games will tell us something - if we roll the Swans and go close to the Crows then we are in with a very small shot.  Lose the next two, which is likely, and we'll be out of the hunt.

I will say this, though - isn't it nice to actually be talking about finals at this stage of the season.  Makes for a nice change.

To get into 8th this year you will need 13 wins, which means 7 from the remaining 10 for us. With 5 games against top 8 teams and port at home and staints again playing finals seems like more than stretch 

Got to beat some good sides to do it. But that is how it should be. 

Confidence can be built. But our first quarters are not sharp enough to this point. 

But we are a chance if the players take themselves to the next level

up to them. 

Beating the swans is the test

1 hour ago, america de cali said:

Back in 1987 after a promissing start to the season we faltered somewhat and after round 12 we only had five wins and seemingly little chance to the make the finals. We all know what happened then. This season has started in a somewhat similar fashion. Sparkling form mixed with some backsliding performances and a radical new game plan that hasn't quite clicked in a consistent manner. A missing ingredient is confidence to maintain 100% effort and work rate with good sides  and shake off some long standing bogeys.

We would need to play much better in the second half than the first adc.

We have beaten one team in the top eight.

The fixture is harder from here as we play a higher ratio of the better teams.

We have improved substantially this year to IMO a mid ladder side 9 - 11.

We are still a long way off beating the better sides keep in mind we have the youngest team going round at present.

Young players tend to drop off as the year goes on.

We have beaten GWS, Collingwood twice, Richmond, Gold Coast and Brisbane.  It is like 1998 we will need to beat West Coast at Subiaco plus another 6 matches.

Nick Nat is a huge out for West Coast. If we do make the 8, I can see us overtaking them.

Nice thought but who is going to drop out?

WCE are a game and % ahead of us (and Port @ 9th).  It has 7 wins.  Only needs 6 from final 10 to get to the 13 and stay in 8.

That means it needs to lose 4 of the 10 by BIG margins.  Unlikely given they have 4 games at home and away games vs BL, Collingwood, Carlton and Freo (at DS).  Without Nic Nat they won't win them all but they will win enough to stay in the 8.

The finals train has left the station for us this year...but next year...a very different story.

3 minutes ago, Moneider96 said:

Nick Nat is a huge out for West Coast. If we do make the 8, I can see us overtaking them.

Well we have to beat them  in Perth on July 23rd.

Good luck with that Moneider96 with or without NN.

Let's just leave the "F" word out of the equation and adopt the most famous of all football cliches. "We're just taking it one week at a time."

 

GO DEES!

An important consideration for us ATM is that there is still incentive for the players to make the finals. Last couple of seasons at this stage our window was already closed.  A major factor with the modern game is attrition. If we can keep our best players on the field  we are a good chance if one or two of the current 8 fall off. Remember last season with GWS. Injury ruined their season.  Still a lot of ifs and buts but our season ain't over just yet.

6 minutes ago, The Reverend said:

Let's just leave the "F" word out of the equation and adopt the most famous of all football cliches. "We're just taking it one week at a time."

 

GO DEES!

That sentiment is for the players. Supporters can fantasise as much as they like. 

7 minutes ago, america de cali said:

An important consideration for us ATM is that there is still incentive for the players to make the finals. Last couple of seasons at this stage our window was already closed.  A major factor with the modern game is attrition. If we can keep our best players on the field  we are a good chance if one or two of the current 8 fall off. Remember last season with GWS. Injury ruined their season.  Still a lot of ifs and buts but our season ain't over just yet.

Correct. The chance is still there IF the players want it. 

They all have to play well, but that can happen. 

Sure many are young. But they were also not around 3 years ago

Jack Watts is so much better when Dawes is playing a good game

25 minutes ago, america de cali said:

An important consideration for us ATM is that there is still incentive for the players to make the finals. Last couple of seasons at this stage our window was already closed.  A major factor with the modern game is attrition. If we can keep our best players on the field  we are a good chance if one or two of the current 8 fall off. Remember last season with GWS. Injury ruined their season.  Still a lot of ifs and buts but our season ain't over just yet.

Agreed.

We are very unlikely to make finals, but how long has it been since our season was still relevant at the halfway mark?

At least there is a strong motivation to go out each week, because mathematically finals are still on the cards. 

24 minutes ago, america de cali said:

An important consideration for us ATM is that there is still incentive for the players to make the finals. Last couple of seasons at this stage our window was already closed.  A major factor with the modern game is attrition. If we can keep our best players on the field  we are a good chance if one or two of the current 8 fall off. Remember last season with GWS. Injury ruined their season.  Still a lot of ifs and buts but our season ain't over just yet.

For us to play finals wins against Adelaide, Port Adelaide and West Coast are all non-negotiable and we would have to win against 1 more top side assuming all 'should wins' are won. We could just as easily lose all 4 of them alone win them all! Look forward to next year we are coming! just not quite yet.

17 minutes ago, ArtificialWisdom said:

For us to play finals wins against Adelaide, Port Adelaide and West Coast are all non-negotiable and we would have to win against 1 more top side assuming all 'should wins' are won. We could just as easily lose all 4 of them alone win them all! Look forward to next year we are coming! just not quite yet.

We are a bit like a plane at an airport, we seem to finally have all the passengers, luggage, food etc on board (which we haven't managed for a decade or more), we have left the gate (which we have done before but we took too many passengers along for the ride), and we are currently taxiing out to the run way. We seem to take a wrong turn here and there but instead of ending up back in the gate as we have in the past we seem to be able to make the right turn again and head back towards the run way again. 

I think we are close to finding the end of the runway, it really good be any week now although I think next year is more likely. Hopefully by the end of the next year we are in the air and the likes of the Hawks and Roos are coming in to land as Freo did this year!

There have been a couple of games this year where I have said "if we win this, I will entertain finals". Those being the Doggies game and maybe even the Port/Hawthorn games recently. This weekend is another one of those, but the Swans are a very good side, at home, who are also on the rebound, so I think a win this weekend is unlikely.

If we are going to have any chance of beating the Swans, it has to be now while they are without Tippett and most likely Rohan and no Sam Reid to come in to replace Tippett.  Still a very big ask, but definitely not outside the realms of possibility.  Taking confidence from that into the break when we have a chance to recharge our batteries, and anything is possible in the run home (although I'm sticking by my original prediction of 10th).

Obviously, if we keep going how we're going, we won't play finals. But momentum is a funny thing. A big win against a top 8 side would be the thing that lights the powder keg.  

The game against the Crows at the G after the bye is a big one. That is winnable. If we win that then we are in it up to our ears.  

I've got 3 or 4 possible wins to come. But boy it would be good to knock off Hawthorn and/or Sydney. That would illustrate significant progress this year. 

3 hours ago, radar said:

Don't think they will make finals "but could have a big say in shaping them. "

Yes definitely agree wth this

but pls stricken Finals from your pitched tongue (pun for lid off) my demon friends until we beat either Sydney , awfulthorn, WC or Dangeelong 

3 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

I've got 3 or 4 possible wins to come. But boy it would be good to knock off Hawthorn and/or Sydney. That would illustrate significant progress this year. 

Yes