2016 AFL National Draft prospects: The next batch

[spirit of norm smith 16,462]

All nine players listed as nominated by GWS should by drafted.  They can pick 4 that for me are top 20 candidates... Perryman, Setterfield, Macreadie & Mutch.

[Clintosaurus 7,849]

On 31/10/2016 at 8:57 AM, Chelly said:

Drew would be an interesting selection. Goes hard at the ball and has been compared to Jack Viney.

But is 188cm tall.  Knightmare has him ranked #10 in his draft lists. Let's get him! ! ! 

[stinga 566]

On 31 October 2016 at 3:12 PM, Whispering_Jack said:

The AFL has received the following Academy nominations for next month's AFL National Draft:-

Brisbane Lions – Jacob Allison, Nate Dennis, William Fletcher, Jack Rolls, Declan Watson.

GC Suns - Jack Bowes, Dan Charlesworth, Jesse Esam, Nicholas Kempe, Curtis Marsden, Brad Scheer, Max Spencer, Shawn Watson, Josh Williams.

GWS – Isaac Cumming, Sam Fisher, Ryan Garthwaite, Harrison Macreadie, Kobe Mutch, Harry Perryman, Will Setterfield, Zach Sproule, Lach Tiziani

Sydney Swans – Darcy Baron-Hay, Jake Brown, Ryan Hebron, Callum McFadden, Ned Reinhard, Matthew Wilson.

The AFL has received the following Father/son nominations for next month's AFL National Draft:-

 Adelaide – Ben Jarman 
  
Collingwood – Callum Brown, Josh Daicos

Geelong – Sam Simpson

Jake Waterman – West Coast

 

WJ  That makes 34 players to be drafted for which the relative clubs have to put up points to cover them.  In some cases they will use multiple lower picks to make up the required points, but they'll be used up pretty quickly.  Then they will have to use high picks to cover the amount of points required.  This will greatly affect the position of the other clubs picks.  For instance pick 50 might become pick 30 or pick 70.  Do you have any idea how our picks might finish up?

[spirit of norm smith 16,462]

43 minutes ago, Clintosaurus said:

But is 188cm tall.  Knightmare has him ranked #10 in his draft lists. Let's get him! ! ! 

Drew is realistically probably in the draft sights of Kangas (pick 32 or 33), Saints (pick 36), or Geelong (pick 38 or 42).

[spirit of norm smith 16,462]

44 minutes ago, stinga said:

WJ  That makes 34 players to be drafted for which the relative clubs have to put up points to cover them.  In some cases they will use multiple lower picks to make up the required points, but they'll be used up pretty quickly.  Then they will have to use high picks to cover the amount of points required.  This will greatly affect the position of the other clubs picks.  For instance pick 50 might become pick 30 or pick 70.  Do you have any idea how our picks might finish up?

Yes there are about 16 academy players and 4 father/son players that will be drafted, its just when and at what number!!

[Whispering_Jack 30,177]

1 hour ago, stinga said:

WJ  That makes 34 players to be drafted for which the relative clubs have to put up points to cover them.  In some cases they will use multiple lower picks to make up the required points, but they'll be used up pretty quickly.  Then they will have to use high picks to cover the amount of points required.  This will greatly affect the position of the other clubs picks.  For instance pick 50 might become pick 30 or pick 70.  Do you have any idea how our picks might finish up?

We have three "live" picks ATM - 47, 69 and 84 but will be using the third pick for Josh Wagner's rookie upgrade.

I think that pick 47 will see us taking around the 45th to 50th player selected of which 7 or 8 will have been academy or father/sons. Pick 69 could well see us moving up a few selections but I'm not sure it matters much by that stage of the draft.

If we can pick up one good AFL player with our two picks, we're doing well. Hopefully, our recruiting people have some players in their sights who are worthwhile draftees at those levels as well as some more inspired rookie picks like VDB and Wagner.

[DeeSpencer 25,715]

On 31/10/2016 at 4:12 PM, Whispering_Jack said:

The AFL has received the following Academy nominations for next month's AFL National Draft:-

Brisbane Lions – Jacob Allison, Nate Dennis, William Fletcher, Jack Rolls, Declan Watson.

GC Suns - Jack Bowes, Dan Charlesworth, Jesse Esam, Nicholas Kempe, Curtis Marsden, Brad Scheer, Max Spencer, Shawn Watson, Josh Williams.

GWS – Isaac Cumming, Sam Fisher, Ryan Garthwaite, Harrison Macreadie, Kobe Mutch, Harry Perryman, Will Setterfield, Zach Sproule, Lach Tiziani

Sydney Swans – Darcy Baron-Hay, Jake Brown, Ryan Hebron, Callum McFadden, Ned Reinhard, Matthew Wilson.

The AFL has received the following Father/son nominations for next month's AFL National Draft:-

 Adelaide – Ben Jarman 
  
Collingwood – Callum Brown, Josh Daicos

Geelong – Sam Simpson

West Coast - Jake Waterman 

 

I've got it at about 10 who will likely be bid on before our pick 47, with another 3 or so possibles.

Collingwood might have to use 44 and 51 on matching Brown and Daicos.

West Coast might use 54 on Waterman.

Brisbane don't have any mid range picks for Allison so he'll push our picks back if they match a mid range pick for him. 

Gold Coast will use an early pick on Bowes then not have any picks for Scheer until late picks so that might be one to push back.

Then it's just a matter of how many picks GWS need to use for their academy kids and whether they pass after they've drafted all the ones they want anyway or if they make any live picks of non academy players. 15, 37, 39, 45, 52, 55, 57, 58, 59, 60 could all be used up. That's 10 picks for maybe 6 or so kids. 

I'd expect 47 and 69 to end up early 50's and early 60's. Seems unlikely a highly rated draft slider will last until our first pick but the trade off is both picks should be around the mark where the recruiters have some talent they like still available to pick.

[stinga 566]

5 hours ago, Whispering_Jack said:

We have three "live" picks ATM - 47, 69 and 84 but will be using the third pick for Josh Wagner's rookie upgrade.

I think that pick 47 will see us taking around the 45th to 50th player selected of which 7 or 8 will have been academy or father/sons. Pick 69 could well see us moving up a few selections but I'm not sure it matters much by that stage of the draft.

If we can pick up one good AFL player with our two picks, we're doing well. Hopefully, our recruiting people have some players in their sights who are worthwhile draftees at those levels as well as some more inspired rookie picks like VDB and Wagner.

The way I understand it is -

Say North Melbourne bids 11th pick on Collingwood.s father son pick Callum Brown.  Pick 11 is worth 1329 points so collingwood have to come up with those points.

So they use pick 28  @ 667, Pick44 #362, Pick51 @ 259 and pick 62 @ 123 to match the points.  Once you get past pick 60 the points are not worth much.

On that pick alone our 47 becomes 46 , 69 becomes 66 and 84 becomes 81.

If there are another say 5 similar bids on players, I think we could be closer to 40.50 and 70.

[Elwood 3184 1,313]

3 hours ago, stinga said:

The way I understand it is -

Say North Melbourne bids 11th pick on Collingwood.s father son pick Callum Brown.  Pick 11 is worth 1329 points so collingwood have to come up with those points.

So they use pick 28  @ 667, Pick44 #362, Pick51 @ 259 and pick 62 @ 123 to match the points.  Once you get past pick 60 the points are not worth much.

On that pick alone our 47 becomes 46 , 69 becomes 66 and 84 becomes 81.

If there are another say 5 similar bids on players, I think we could be closer to 40.50 and 70.

That works if North bid for him with pick 11 and Collingwood matches that bid.

However, it's unlikely that Brown would attract a bid that high. More likely it would be around the mid 20's and the cost in points to Collingwood would not be anywhere near that high.

[stinga 566]

5 hours ago, Elwood 3184 said:

That works if North bid for him with pick 11 and Collingwood matches that bid.

However, it's unlikely that Brown would attract a bid that high. More likely it would be around the mid 20's and the cost in points to Collingwood would not be anywhere near that high.

Maybe maybe not Brown.  But maybe an academy pick that would sit around 11.  A similar result would occur.

[DeeSpencer 25,715]

5 hours ago, stinga said:

Maybe maybe not Brown.  But maybe an academy pick that would sit around 11.  A similar result would occur.

Some bids consume picks earlier than our 47 and therefore move 47 in. Some bids will be matched with picks after 47 and therefore move 47 out.

As I've posted above I expect a number of bids to move our pick 47 out. But then a lot of picks to be consumed before our next pick which will then move in. A lot depends on GWS and when their bids come and which of their kids they decide to match.

[stinga 566]

I don't see how your picks can go out unless you have academy/Father son picks yourself.  If a club uses an early pick for a player the pick is gone no matter whether an ordinary pick or academy/Father son.  The following picks do not lose their order.  It's only when they have to use multiple picks for one player to make up the required points, then the places come in one or two places.  I have been listening to the commentary and just assumed that picks could go out, but looking at it I don't see how. Tell me if i'm wrong, or explain where I am missing the point as to how the picks can go out.   An example would be good.

[spirit of norm smith 16,462]

Yes agree 47 may end up around '50' and 69 may end up around '66'... strange!!

Prefer Bailey Morrish, Liam Ryan, Brodie Romensky or Jack Maibaum at 47-50

Prefer Hamish Brayshaw, Sam McLarty, Jeremy Goddard or Patrick Lipinski at 66-69.

[old55 23,596]

11 hours ago, stinga said:

I don't see how your picks can go out unless you have academy/Father son picks yourself.  If a club uses an early pick for a player the pick is gone no matter whether an ordinary pick or academy/Father son.  The following picks do not lose their order.  It's only when they have to use multiple picks for one player to make up the required points, then the places come in one or two places.  I have been listening to the commentary and just assumed that picks could go out, but looking at it I don't see how. Tell me if i'm wrong, or explain where I am missing the point as to how the picks can go out.   An example would be good.

A pick can go out if the bid is before your pick and picks used to cover it are after your pick.

[stinga 566]

49 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

A pick can go out if the bid is before your pick and picks used to cover it are after your pick.

I get what you mean, the picks don't go out in number, but a better selection is not available as the player has already gone   Say North bids for an academy player at 11 and GWS use picks after 47 to cover it.  Then North use 11 on another player and all the following picks maintain their number, but a lesser player is available at 12 where that academy player would have slotted in.

Whereas the pick numbers come in, where clubs are forced to use multiple picks prior to yours.  Thanks.

[Moonshadow 17,676]

Hamish Brayshaw..... now where have I heard that surname before? 

Would like to add him to the mix if he aspires to be as good as his brother.

[old55 23,596]

4 hours ago, stinga said:

I get what you mean, the picks don't go out in number, but a better selection is not available as the player has already gone   Say North bids for an academy player at 11 and GWS use picks after 47 to cover it.  Then North use 11 on another player and all the following picks maintain their number, but a lesser player is available at 12 where that academy player would have slotted in.

Whereas the pick numbers come in, where clubs are forced to use multiple picks prior to yours.  Thanks.

Almost right.  The pick numbers do actually change.  North bids at 11, GWS use picks after 47 to cover it and take the academy player at 11, North's pick is then 12 and everyone else's pick is moved back a number also.

It happened to us last year, at the start of the draft we had picks 3 and 7.  We bid on Mills at 3 and Sydney matched and our pick went out to 4 = Clayton Oliver and 7 went out to 8.  Then Gold Coast bid on Jacob Hopper at 7 and GWS matched so all picks after that went out by one more and our original pick 7 ended up as pick 9 = Sam Weideman.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_AFL_draft

Picks coming in - you've got it!

Edited November 3, 2016 by Fifty-5

[ChaserJ 5,096]

Some VFL names that could be in the frame at our picks. Rowan Marshall could be of interest, there are write ups on Keilty and McInerney too:

The 15 VFL stars AFL clubs should consider at 2016 national and rookie drafts

[Dedogtor 66]

4 hours ago, ChaserJ said:

Some VFL names that could be in the frame at our picks. Rowan Marshall could be of interest, there are write ups on Keilty and McInerney too:

The 15 VFL stars AFL clubs should consider at 2016 national and rookie drafts

Ben Long looks sharp! But I guess the challenge is picking the upside player the one who will grow the most being a full time footballer. 

[spirit of norm smith 16,462]

Rookies aplenty here... only Ben Long and Luke Ryan are AFL list quality right now. Agree that there must be an element with those mentioned that they would thrive under an AFL training regime.

No Tim Smith mentioned?? No Lauchlan Dalgleish mentioned?? both would be AFL ready and have mature bodies to step up.

[Whispering_Jack 30,177]

Chris25 has just released the third round of his phantom draft and Melbourne's first pick which was supposed to be 47 is actually at 49 on his analysis. It's an interesting selection:-

Third Round

43. Essendon - Jack Graham (183cm, 83kg midfielder from North Adelaide)

44. Geelong - Mitch McCarthy (196cm, 87kg forward/defender from Dandenong Stingrays)

45. Adelaide - Brandon Parfitt (179cm, 78kg midfielder from NT Thunder)

46. Collingwood bid on Zac Sproule
(GWS Giants Academy*) Bid matched.

46. GWS Giants - Zac Sproule (197cm, 84kg defender/forward from Murray Bushrangers)

47. Collingwood - Jack Maibaum (193cm, 90kg defender from Eastern Ranges)

48. Sydney Swans - Max Lynch (200cm, 96kg ruckman from Murray Bushrangers)

49. Melbourne - Willie Rioli Jnr (177cm, 75kg forward from Glenelg)

AFL Comparison: Daniel Rioli (Richmond)
He's a 21 year old now, but some might remember him from his draft year playing for the NT. He was generally considered one of the most talented kids in the whole draft pool, the only problem was that he couldn't run and weighed well above 90kg. The way he's changed his body shape and fitness level is a credit to him, and he can now push up into the midfield. But his goal sense is absolutely elite, I think he could play next season and win games off his own boot in a matter of minutes.

50 Carlton bid on Isaac Cumming (GWS Giants Academy*) Bid matched.

50. GWS Giants - Isaac Cumming (183cm, 74kg midfielder from North Adelaide/GWS)

51. Carlton - Louis Cunningham (181cm, 77kg midfielder from Oakleigh Chargers)

52. Sydney Swans - Ben Davis (187cm, 84kg forward/defender from UNSW)

53. Western Bulldogs - Ben Long (183cm, 71kg forward/defender from NT Thunder/Footscray)

54. Collingwood - Elliot Himmelberg (196cm, 89kg defender from Redlands)

55. Adelaide - Lachlan Cameron (192cm, 88kg defender from West Adelaide)

56. Richmond - Willem Drew (188cm, 78kg midfielder from North Ballarat Rebels)

[ChaserJ 5,096]

Another phantom draft, this time from AFL Draft Central. They have us taking Lyons (been linked with us through a few draft coverers n the media) and Lebois. Both have historical links to the club, with Lebois being a relative of Aaron Davey.

October 2016 Phantom Draft AFL Draft Central

 

[Whispering_Jack 30,177]

4 hours ago, ChaserJ said:

Another phantom draft, this time from AFL Draft Central. They have us taking Lyons (been linked with us through a few draft coverers n the media) and Lebois. Both have historical links to the club, with Lebois being a relative of Aaron Davey.

October 2016 Phantom Draft AFL Draft Central

A brief reading of that draft suggests that the experts at AFL Draft Central aren't up with the latest. They have Melbourne taking Oscar McInerney with their third pick which looks reserved (unless something unusual happens) for the Josh Wagner rookie upgrade. They also have GWS matching a bid for academy player Max Lynch who hasn't been nominated as an academy selection.

[spirit of norm smith 16,462]

Yes most Phantoms are not up to date but they are mostly well informed. Knightmare is the best but Chris25 has some cred. Mfc unlikely to grab Willie Rioli. We are ok for small forwards.

Should grab either Liam Ryan (Subiaco) at 47 or alternatively Daniel Allsop in rookie draft if the brains trust wanted another small fwd. 

 

[ChaserJ 5,096]

16 hours ago, Whispering_Jack said:

A brief reading of that draft suggests that the experts at AFL Draft Central aren't up with the latest. They have Melbourne taking Oscar McInerney with their third pick which looks reserved (unless something unusual happens) for the Josh Wagner rookie upgrade. They also have GWS matching a bid for academy player Max Lynch who hasn't been nominated as an academy selection.

Yep, think this was up a week or so before Wagner was upgraded. From recollection there's a disclaimer that live selections would change as further delistings and rookie upgrades were likely to occur after they posted the phantom draft.