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Match Preview and Team Selection - Round 20

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HISTORY TALKS ... by The Oracle

History says that Melbourne has no chance whatsoever of beating the Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium on Sunday evening.

This is despite the fact that when the two clubs locked horns about 12 weeks ago, the Demons had an emphatic 39 point win.

However, that result came at the end of the Doggies' three game losing streak - their lowest ebb for the year to date - and the landscape has changed dramatically since then. In fact, the Western Bulldogs have rewritten their history in that short space of time.

Today it's unanimous among most pundits that the Dishlickers under Luke Beveridge are the feel good story of the season having recently pushed aside the Tigers from that mantle before sneaking ahead of the Swans to snatch a place in the top four.

There's also the matter of the venue for this meeting. The Westen Bulldogs have a sensational record against Melbourne at Etihad Stadium with eight wins from nine games while the place is a "bogey" ground for the Demons whose only win over the Dogs there was in in round 19, 2007 - a game that marks the historic (or should I say prehistoric?) occasion of their last win at the Docklands.

Since then, Melbourne has been involved in the AFL's biggest venue hoodoo losing 21 games in a row at Etihad. Their last trip there would still be causing them nightmares after conceding a hard fought lead in the last twenty seconds against St. Kilda to go down in embarrassing fashion by 2 points.

What this means is that a Demon win will not only defy history; it will be a major upset and in order to achieve that, it will require a supreme effort from the team leaders and the younger brigade like Jesse Hogan, James Brayshaw and up and comers in Max Gawn and Jack Viney. And even then ...

THE GAME Western Bulldogs v Melbourne at Etihad Stadium Sunday 16 August 2015 at 3.20pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall: Western Bulldogs 74 wins Melbourne 85 wins 1 draw

At Etihad Stadium: Western Bulldogs 8 wins Melbourne 6 wins

Last Five Meetings: Western Bulldogs 3 wins Melbourne 2 wins

The Coaches: Beveridge 0 wins Roos 1 win

MEDIA

TV - Channel 7 Fox Sports 3 @ 3.00pm (live)

Radio - Triple M 3AW

THE BETTING

Western Bulldogs $1.22 to win Melbourne $4.25 to win

LAST TIME THEY MET Melbourne 15.13.103 defeated Western Bulldogs 9.10.64 at the MCG in Round 8, 2015

After a slow start the Demons took control and made a statement to the rest of the football world that they wouldn't be pushed around any more. They led at every change to win by 39 points with key positions Jesse Hogan and Cam Pedersen kicking three goals each.

TEAMS

WESTERN BULLDOGS

B: Dale Morris, Michael Talia, Matthew Boyd

HB: Robert Murphy, Joel Hamling, Easton Wood

C: Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae, Shane Biggs

HF: Luke Dahlhaus, Tory Dickson, Stewart Crameri

F: Lachie Hunter, Jack Redpath, Jake Stringer

FOLL: Tom Campbell, Mitch Wallis, Liam Picken

I/C: Caleb Daniel, Sam Darley, Jarrad Grant, Lin Jong

EMG: Tom Boyd, Daniel Pearce, Josh Prudden

IN: Robert Murphy

OUT: Bailey Dale (omitted)

MELBOURNE

B: Colin Garland, Lynden Dunn, Neville Jetta

HB: Daniel Cross, Tom McDonald, Jeremy Howe

C: Jack Grimes, Angus Brayshaw, Heritier Lumumba

HF: Matt Jones, Chris Dawes, Bernie Vince

F: Jeff Garlett, Jesse Hogan, Jack Watts

Foll: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney

I/C: Rohan Bail, James Harmes, Viv Michie, Alex Neal-Bullen, Christian Salem

EMG: Mark Jamar, Aidan Riley, Billy Stretch

IN: Rohan Bail

OUT: Dom Tyson (hamstring)

One of these sides is fighting for a top four spot while the other is firmly entrenched in the bottom six but their immediate fate and the outcome of this game might well be determined by a couple of key forwards who have taken their time to establish places in their respective teams and have had very different pathways into the AFL.

Melbourne's Jesse Hogan was drafted by the Demons as a 17 year old from Western Australia in October 2012 when he was taken as a pre-listed selection in the AFL's mini draft. We had a glimpse of him in the 2013 NAB Cup but he could not play AFL for Melbourne in his first season and he spent the year playing with the Casey Scorpions where he won that club's best and fairest and kicked 39 goals in 15 games. A knee injury late against Bendigo late in the year put a premature end to his season (he missed the VFL finals) but worse was to come when he injured his back in a 2014 pre season game which ruled him out for all but one game with the Casey Scorpions.

He finally made his AFL debut in this year's season opener on 4 April 2015 against the Gold Coast kicking two goals and taking seven marks. His goal tally is now up to 36; he leads the competition in contested marks and is favourite for the AFL Rising Star. He already has a bag of five goals against St. Kilda at Etihad and last week, he booted four goals and was his team's best in their defeat at the hands of North Melbourne.

The Bulldogs' Jack Redpath (194cm, 104kg) from Kyneton was selected with pick 62 in the 2012 Rookie Draft. The tall forward was already 21 years of age when drafted and like Hogan made his preseason debut in the first round of the 2013 NAB Cup. However, he spent two seasons in the VFL with Williamstown and then most of last year with Footscray before making his AFL debut in Round 16 of 2014.

He was the Bulldogs' leading goal kicker in their VFL premiership team and is now beginning to establish himself at full forward ahead of high priced young recruit Tom Boyd from the Giants. His career games total is 10 and he has kicked a modest total of 12 goals but against Port Adelaide last week he kicked four goals.

Although not directly opposed to each other, if one of these power forwards can fire and boot a bag of goals, his team's winning chances will soar.

The same can be said of the ruck duels. The Demon midfield is improving steadily and the Doggies on ball division has also come on in leaps and bounds under the tutelage of coach Luke Beveridge. The ruck is where I expect Melbourne to press home the advantage of an in form 208cm Max Gawn who is one of the top four ruckmen in the competition in terms of hit outs and contested marks and who was an emergency when these teams last met.

Newly re-signed on a three year contract, Gawn has been a revelation since he broke into the side in mid season after a heartbreaking run with injuries. He keeps getting better and if he's on song this week against the Western Bulldogs, we could see Melbourne rewrite some more of its history and break yet another hoodoo in 2015.

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    Our current team vs last time greatly improve our side and we have the inside nous of McCartney. Advantage to us.

    But its hard to be optimistic as our players are recovering from the flu making it difficult to play out 4 qtrs.

    Their form and two key changes for them vs last time give the advantage to WB:

    - they played no recognised ruckman.

    - their 'great white hope' did nothing and as our 'Great White Hope' :cool: so eloquently pointed out, was subbed off! (Will laugh if Jesse has another shot at Murphy about that)!

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    "Today it's unanimous among most pundits that the Dishlickers under Luke Beveridge are the feel good story of the season"

    This is what I want next year. I want the Demons to be universally regarded as the feelgood story of 2016.

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    Our current team vs last time greatly improve our side and we have the inside nous of McCartney. Advantage to us.

    But its hard to be optimistic as our players, recovering from the flu on a 6 day break makes it difficult to play out 4 qtrs.

    Their form and two key changes for them vs last time give the advantage to WB:

    - they played no recognised ruckman.

    - their 'great white hope' did nothing and as our 'Great White Hope' :cool: so eloquently pointed out, was subbed off! (Will laugh if Jesse has another shot at Murphy about that)!

    6 day break?

    a week should be fine for the players to recover from the sniffles.

    The young dogs are due for a poor game after being up for so long and by god we are due a win at that horrible ground. Lets smash em!

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    What this means is that a Demon win will not only defy history; it will be a major upset and in order to achieve that, it will require a supreme effort from the team leaders and the younger brigade like Jesse Hogan, James Brayshaw and up and comers in Max Gawn and Jack Viney. And even then ...

    Not convinced he's got what it takes.

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    "Today it's unanimous among most pundits that the Dishlickers under Luke Beveridge are the feel good story of the season"

    This is what I want next year. I want the Demons to be universally regarded as the feelgood story of 2016.

    I can tell you right now we won't be. There is a widely held perception that the MFC is an AFL lovechild. It's okay now that we are non-threatening, but watch them come out of the woodwork once we actually do start to challenge, bemoaning the Frawley and Scully compensation, the Roos and Jackson appointments etc. Facts can go out the window very fast.

    I've already adopted an "us against them" mentality in readiness. We won't have many well wishers when (if) we become a top four side.

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    Our current team vs last time greatly improve our side and we have the inside nous of McCartney. Advantage to us.

    But its hard to be optimistic as our players, recovering from the flu on a 6 day break makes it difficult to play out 4 qtrs.

    Their form and two key changes for them vs last time give the advantage to WB:

    - they played no recognised ruckman.

    - their 'great white hope' did nothing and as our 'Great White Hope' :cool: so eloquently pointed out, was subbed off! (Will laugh if Jesse has another shot at Murphy about that)!

    LH, While the flu can knock some around, we will actually have a full 7 day break as we played 1.10pm Sunday last week and play 3:20pm Sunday this week. Bulldogs do have an extra day though as they played Saturday last round.

    I think we're a real chance, but we have to start as we did against the wobbles.

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    I can tell you right now we won't be. There is a widely held perception that the MFC is an AFL lovechild. It's okay now that we are non-threatening, but watch them come out of the woodwork once we actually do start to challenge, bemoaning the Frawley and Scully compensation, the Roos and Jackson appointments etc. Facts can go out the window very fast.

    I've already adopted an "us against them" mentality in readiness. We won't have many well wishers when (if) we become a top four side.

    Tell me, P-man, does the P in P-man stand for "paranoid"?

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    Quite right DubDee and D- Worshiper...it is a 7 day break

    Reminder to self: do not post on DL before 9.00am or learn to count! :cool:

    I have corrected my earlier post.

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    Tell me, P-man, does the P in P-man stand for "paranoid"?

    Peppery.

    I'm sure there will be many who are happy for the supporters who have sat through the steaming turd that has been the last decade. Or indeed several decades. But I'm expecting some grinding of teeth.

    Which I'm okay with. Being hated is a good thing.

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    SQUAD SELECTION: Christian Salem, Mark Jamar and Billy Stretch have all been named in our extended squad for this Sunday's game against the Western Bulldogs.

    Melbourne Squad v Western Bulldogs

    B: Colin Garland, Lynden Dunn, Neville Jetta
    HB: Daniel Cross, Tom McDonald, Jeremy Howe
    C: Jack Grimes, Dom Tyson, Heritier Lumumba
    HF: Matt Jones, Chris Dawes, Bernie Vince
    F: Jeff Garlett, Jesse Hogan, Jack Watts
    Foll: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney

    I/C (from): Christian Salem, Angus Brayshaw, Billy Stretch, Viv Michie, Alex Neal-Bullen, Mark Jamar, James Harmes

    Milestone: Matt Jones (50 games)

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    Melbourne Squad v Western Bulldogs

    B: Colin Garland, Lynden Dunn, Neville Jetta
    HB: Daniel Cross, Tom McDonald, Jeremy Howe
    C: Jack Grimes, Dom Tyson, Heritier Lumumba
    HF: Matt Jones, Chris Dawes, Bernie Vince
    F: Jeff Garlett, Jesse Hogan, Jack Watts
    Foll: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney

    I/C (from): Christian Salem, Angus Brayshaw, Billy Stretch, Viv Michie, Alex Neal-Bullen, Mark Jamar, James Harmes

    Milestone: Matt Jones (50 games)

    Salem is back. I hope he plays

    Bulldogs changes

    In: R. Murphy, D. Pearce, J. Prudden, T. Boyd

    Out: B. Dale (omitted)

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    Quite right DubDee and D- Worshiper...it is a 7 day break

    Reminder to self: do not post on DL before 9.00am or learn to count! :cool:

    I have corrected my earlier post.

    My problem is after 9pm. Wonder what the big Russian thinks of the taste of his carrots?

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    My, slightly autistic, bulldogs mad mate sent me this when i asked his thoughts. He has been spot on every time with his "analysis" in the past:

    Beveridge throwing darts at the team list again like last time. We've upgraded a bloke who hasn't played a game in 3 years and has an average record at VFL level. Last week we were missing 7 of our best 22 and looked like superstars so who knows. Dees underrated again though but you'd think at Etihad the Dogs have the advantage. Money on the line for the Dees would be a good bet. Watched the Dees/North game and didn't think the final score was a very good reflection at all.

    Also, no Roughead or Roberts back yet so Hogan will kick 5+ playing on 3rd string KPD Talia like he did last time.. Can't see Hamling playing on him and think he might be a bit quick/tall for Morris. Talia's probably the only guy not pulling his weight in our team at the moment but injuries have kept him in. Jamar, Salem, Stretch some pretty handy in's for Melbourne. Also sounds like a line up of James Bond villains.

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    Changes to the starting 18 are still possible.

    Grimes out.

    Cross to the wing.

    Salem to the back flank.

    Bench - Angus, Harmes, ANB, Stretch

    People want Michie out after a few games, fair enough. I want Grimes out after a few years.

    Cut the crap, move on, play the future.

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    We get referee #28. Don't know his name but i know he makes me shake my head a lot.

    Is he the fat one?

    Edit: I just checked and it's not the fat one, it's the one with the odd eyebrows who doesn't seem to like is very much.

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    Is he the fat one?

    Edit: I just checked and it's not the fat one, it's the one with the odd eyebrows who doesn't seem to like is very much.

    That's the guy :mad:

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    I can tell you right now we won't be. There is a widely held perception that the MFC is an AFL lovechild. It's okay now that we are non-threatening, but watch them come out of the woodwork once we actually do start to challenge, bemoaning the Frawley and Scully compensation, the Roos and Jackson appointments etc. Facts can go out the window very fast.

    I've already adopted an "us against them" mentality in readiness. We won't have many well wishers when (if) we become a top four side.

    Adopt the IDGAF mentality.

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    I'd be very surprised if Salem wasn't named and expected to play.

    Expect him to ease into it as the Sub.

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    Changes to the starting 18 are still possible.

    Grimes out.

    Cross to the wing.

    Salem to the back flank.

    Bench - Angus, Harmes, ANB, Stretch

    People want Michie out after a few games, fair enough. I want Grimes out after a few years.

    Cut the crap, move on, play the future.

    Bold and provocative statement of reality !! I like it agree entirely!!

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