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Quarters won

Radar Detector

By Radar Detector
in Melbourne Demons

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Radar Detector Redleg

Radar Detector   1,339

Posted
Posted

In the wake of the understandable hand-wringing after the Brisbane loss, I thought it would be interesting to have a look at the "Quarters won" stat. In particular and despite obvious skill deficiencies, how much have we actually improved and how far do we have to go?

Historically, over the last 6 years, a team has to win 2.1 quarters on average per game to make the finals (a drawn quarter = 0.5). Improving this ratio to 2.5 quarters per game will place a team in contention for top 4. In contrast, the Demons circa 2013 won a meagre 0.9 quarters per game to finish second last in one of the worst seasons in our history.

This season, we sit 15th on the Quarters Won table with a much more respectable 1.6 per game, comfortably ahead of GWS and St Kilda (1.2 each) and a long way ahead of Brisbane on a surprisingly low 0.9 (although this is rising steadily). As a side note, our best QW stat since our last finals appearance was 1.7 per game under Bailey in 2010 which lead to 8 wins.

What does this all tell us? There are obviously many factors at play but it is obvious that the improved competitiveness that most have suspected is real. A similar improvement next year would have the side pushing for finals. That said, our fourth quarter win ratio is only 33% lending weight to Paul Roos' comments after the Brisbane game that the losing habits of some players are worse than even he expected. T_U highlighted in a previous thread that we have been in the lead in the last quarter of a number of games but won less than half which goes to the same issue.

Either way, it appears obvious that the Paul Roos method has improved the side markedly in a competitive sense but we need to add some class to ensure that the improved competitiveness does not go to waste.

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Nasher Legend

Nasher   33,109

Posted
Posted

Bailey copped a hiding on here years ago when he spoke about winning more quarters. I never understood why so many on here hated the talk of winning more quarters.

Because in the black and white land of a football supporter's forum, there are only winners and losers. We're not allowed to enjoy progress or minor victories along the way.

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Adzman Redleg

Adzman   2,085

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I think this is reflective of the fact we probably don't have an even contribution across all players each week. It is the same guys putting in every week, with other guys putting in every now and then.

We need more guys winning their position on the ground to stop these horror 10-15 min stretches where we score nothing and the opposition pours on a few unanswered goals. Happens far too often for a defensively minded side. They just fade, and before we know it 10 minutes of play in a quarter has sealed our fate.

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Wiseblood Legend

Wiseblood   24,636

Posted
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I think this is reflective of the fact we probably don't have an even contribution across all players each week. It is the same guys putting in every week, with other guys putting in every now and then.

We need more guys winning their position on the ground to stop these horror 10-15 min stretches where we score nothing and the opposition pours on a few unanswered goals. Happens far too often for a defensively minded side. They just fade, and before we know it 10 minutes of play in a quarter has sealed our fate.

And our problem is that the brain fades are horrendous - it's not as if we look poor for a few minutes, cough up goals and then right the ship. When teams get a run on they smash us and we still find it hard to stem that flow and turn the tide back in our direction.

Good stat though RD, and it shows that there is genuine improvement for us. We all want wins, me included, but we are certainly headed in the right direction to reap the rewards of the hard work the players are putting in.

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rpfc Legend

rpfc   27,531

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Win quarters ... blah blah. Win GAMES !!!!!!!

How do you think you win games?

What are games made up of?

If you won 4 quarters, do you think you would win the game?

Answer the rhetorical questions at your leisure.

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mrtwister Redleg

mrtwister   650

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Posted (edited)

I think the fact that there are only 2 games (so far) this season that we have failed to win a quarter (both WA teams) suggests a substantial improvement on last season.

Also, I'd rather win 1 quarter by 50 and lose 3 quarters by 2, than the other way around.

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Chook Legend

Chook   14,592

Posted
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I think the fact that there are only 2 games (so far) this season that we have failed to win a quarter (both WA teams) suggests a substantial improvement on last season.

Also, I'd rather win 1 quarter by 50 and lose 3 quarters by 2, than the other way around.

So for you, percentage is the most important thing? Paul Roos seems to agree, and so do I.

Winning quarters is meaningless if the ones you lose are lost decisively and the ones you win are won by the skin of your teeth.

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mrtwister Redleg

mrtwister   650

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So for you, percentage is the most important thing? Paul Roos seems to agree, and so do I.

Winning quarters is meaningless if the ones you lose are lost decisively and the ones you win are won by the skin of your teeth.

Exactly.

Quarters aren't the definitive result.

Everybody would take 3 wins by 2 points and 1 loss by 40.

But if these were results of quarters in a single game, I think the preference would obviously be different.

Look at Geelong's % compared to other top 8 teams. Wouldn't exactly say they're struggling and they've probably won a few games in which they've only won 1 or 2 quarters but I'd love to be where they are.

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Nasher Legend

Nasher   33,109

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Look at Geelong's % compared to other top 8 teams. Wouldn't exactly say they're struggling and they've probably won a few games in which they've only won 1 or 2 quarters but I'd love to be where they are.

Geelong's % is only as low as it is because of that one belting they took against Sydney. If you exclude that result their % is around 120% - still not around the 140% of the top teams, but much better. Just goes to show what a difference one game can make it if it's on the extreme end of the scale.

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Forest Demon Redleg

Forest Demon   4,681

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As frustrating as the loss was on Sunday, only a sheer lunatic can't see we have dramatically improved. We are still well off the pace but we have definitely eaten into that gap considerably this year. We were so far back it wasn't funny under Neeld.

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