First of all, I really don't know. But I would hazard a guess that over 50% of the top 10 don't make it to 150 games (since the draft came in)

Ah, perceptions are everything. As per the post higher up the page, it's closer to a third (37%).

Or to put it another way, 2/3 of these top 10 players will not make it to 150 games - astute selection or not.

http://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/zak-jones-the-brother-of-melbourne-demons-star-nathan-is-likely-to-go-in-the-first-round-of-the-afl-draft/story-fnelctok-1226761658596

Young Zak is apparently in the mix at pick 12 just 3 spots off our pick surely we would have some inside knowledge of just how good young Jones is and is going to be, looks like a massive bolter up the order now. Would we think about it if our first choice was already gone at pick 9?

As long as we don't take Lennon. Quigbey torn him apart in his mock draft....... last bloke I remember him pulling apart was Lucas Cook - pity BP didn't read.

If my livelihood was traipsing around the country being paid to choose the best junior footballers in the land I'd bloody well want any player I picked in the top 10 to play 150-200 games. There's clearly no guarantee, development, injuries, etc., but given a level playing field it's what I'd expect. And it would be what the club that paid me expected.

I reckon if we looked at Stephen Wells top 20 picks over the last 15 years he'd have exceptional outcomes. It's what I'd expect too.

Or to put it another way, 2/3 of these top 10 players will not make it to 150 games - astute selection or not.

If they don't make it they weren't "astute".

http://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/zak-jones-the-brother-of-melbourne-demons-star-nathan-is-likely-to-go-in-the-first-round-of-the-afl-draft/story-fnelctok-1226761658596

Young Zak is apparently in the mix at pick 12 just 3 spots off our pick surely we would have some inside knowledge of just how good young Jones is and is going to be, looks like a massive bolter up the order now. Would we think about it if our first choice was already gone at pick 9?

He's not considered top 10 material.

Why do you care where he goes ? I have no more interest in him than any other player in the draft. Whoever is best available should be picked at 9.

BH - Love your attitude about 'best available'. But what is best available? What set of attributes actually makes best available? I know what I look for in a footballer is completely different to what we as a club have identified at the pointy end of the draft for past however many drafts. I want hunger, desire for the contest, I want a team oriented approach, I want blokes who can read the play and get to where the footy is going to be, and then go and get it - if they can do that I am then concerned about kicking skills and speed. Not the other way around.

I know your hatred of picking someone because they are the brother or son or cousin of someone on our list. Zac interests me because he won Vic country's MVP ant the national carnival, he was written of before he started at under18 level and has continually proved the doubters wrong - I like his attitude. The fact he is Nathan's little brother adds a little intangible to the equation - potentially could help unite a team that has been fractured for many years now.

So he's not considered top 10 material but he is apparently considered top 12 material - splitting hairs for mine. If he plays like big brother he will get to 150-200 games to me that would justify a top 10 pick

BH - Love your attitude about 'best available'. But what is best available? What set of attributes actually makes best available? I know what I look for in a footballer is completely different to what we as a club have identified at the pointy end of the draft for past however many drafts. I want hunger, desire for the contest, I want a team oriented approach, I want blokes who can read the play and get to where the footy is going to be, and then go and get it - if they can do that I am then concerned about kicking skills and speed. Not the other way around.

I know your hatred of picking someone because they are the brother or son or cousin of someone on our list. Zac interests me because he won Vic country's MVP ant the national carnival, he was written of before he started at under18 level and has continually proved the doubters wrong - I like his attitude. The fact he is Nathan's little brother adds a little intangible to the equation - potentially could help unite a team that has been fractured for many years now.

So he's not considered top 10 material but he is apparently considered top 12 material - splitting hairs for mine. If he plays like big brother he will get to 150-200 games to me that would justify a top 10 pick

I doubt he'll go in the top 20; may be wrong but I think there are quite a few ahead of him.

BH - Love your attitude about 'best available'. But what is best available?

It means picking who you think is the best player and not the best type, i.e. not picking for needs. We need pace, but if you rate Sheed as a better mid than Freeman you pick Sheed. It's not picking a key position player just because you need one. For example, when we picked Molan he wasn't best available. Craig Cameron wouldn't dispute this.

Clubs have ranking systems and spend a laborious amount of time rating players, from there they form their "best available".

Same process picked Toumpas last year ahead of Wines.

Injuries aside, I'm backing Toumpas to be better than Ollie (not withstanding their first year's output).

Best player available. "Needs" is secondary.

So he's not considered top 10 material but he is apparently considered top 12 material - splitting hairs for mine. If he plays like big brother he will get to 150-200 games to me that would justify a top 10 pick

Because some amateur draft expert says he is top 12 material doesn't make it so. The proof will be on Thursday as per draft position and then the next 1-10 years to see if that ranking is correct.

As long as we don't take Lennon. Quigbey torn him apart in his mock draft....... last bloke I remember him pulling apart was Lucas Cook - pity BP didn't read.

I've heard the club is keen on Lennon. Freeman would be handy but they don't expect him to be available at 9.

There could be a slider - maybe Aish - as he's regarded as more of an outside midfielder.

I like Quigley's description of Freeman - stamina, pace and a little bit of a pudge. And he still won the repeat sprints. His downside is his hands but he is born with stuff other players don't have.

It's disappointing to read that Quayle (and everyone else) reckons we need pace, when we have one of the quickest linebreakers around in Sam Blease. Please give him one good pre-season.

I've heard the club is keen on Lennon. Freeman would be handy but they don't expect him to be available at 9.

There could be a slider - maybe Aish - as he's regarded as more of an outside midfielder.

I like Quigley's description of Freeman - stamina, pace and a little bit of a pudge. And he still won the repeat sprints. His downside is his hands but he is born with stuff other players don't have.

It's disappointing to read that Quayle (and everyone else) reckons we need pace, when we have one of the quickest linebreakers around in Sam Blease. Please give him one good pre-season.

So that's one player that's not even in our best 22 atm with line breaking pace and that's enough for you??

So that's one player that's not even in our best 22 atm with line breaking pace and that's enough for you??

Be nice to have at least one player in the side with pace.

And atm - with all the changes - no one knows our best 22.

There is a lot of debate about who we end up with at pick 9 but rest assured I am confident that Roos will make a very astute pick. I am now more interested in picks #40 and #57 where we are less certain the chouce left available.

Personally I want Scharenberg but in the likely scenario of him being gone, my preference is Sheed, Dunstan or Freeman then Salem. Do not want Lennon or Bontempelli. By the way, I'm basing this on next to nothing - just phantom drafts and some highlights vids.

People say Roos this Roos that, but it will be Jason Taylor who calls the shots on draft day. Given he was Derek Hine's right hand man before joining us I have plenty of faith that he will get us a good player at 9. Collingwood between about 2004-present have not wasted a first round pick. Bodes well.

Personally I want Scharenberg but in the likely scenario of him being gone, my preference is Sheed, Dunstan or Freeman then Salem. Do not want Lennon or Bontempelli. By the way, I'm basing this on next to nothing - just phantom drafts and some highlights vids.

People say Roos this Roos that, but it will be Jason Taylor who calls the shots on draft day. Given he was Derek Hine's right hand man before joining us I have plenty of faith that he will get us a good player at 9. Collingwood between about 2004-present have not wasted a first round pick. Bodes well.

Yes, it will be Taylor and Viney. Roos will have input but those two will do what they did last year hopefully - it looks to be a very good draft class.

Apparently, the club has inquired about Matty's injury and have asked for some scans. Looking a tad more likely than before as it seems that some clubs don't want to worry about his injuries. Anyway, injuries or no injuries, this kid will be a steal at pick 9 if he's still there.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/star-draft-prospect-matthew-scharenberg-could-slide-down-the-order-as-it-emerges-he-is-battling-feet-injuries/story-fni5f22o-1226761380277

Does anyone know what time and what broadcast type and time the draft this year is? SEN again at 7'ish?

Does anyone know what time and what broadcast type and time the draft this year is? SEN again at 7'ish?

Fox footy at 7.40. AFL on line as well. Demonland for up today's news.

Cheers.

Zak Jones could end up being the best player in the draft, and be in the top 3 players in the afl in 6 years. We could do worse than pick him at 9

We could do worse than pick him at 9

that is not a criteria.

That means we are happy with our draft pick James Strauss cause we could have done worse and drafted Tom Swift.

Hope we draft Dom Sheed. Looks a pure footballer

Zak Jones could end up being the best player in the draft, and be in the top 3 players in the afl in 6 years. We could do worse than pick him at 9

Take the romance out of this scenario in what universe does this occur ?

Zak Jones could end up being the best player in the draft, and be in the top 3 players in the afl in 6 years. We could do worse than pick him at 9

Ok that's pushing it a bit far now..