THE NEW SYSTEM by The Oracle

On Friday night, Melbourne returns to what some describe as its "hoodoo" ground - Etihad Stadium at which it has lost 10 consecutive games since 2007. Ironically, the last time the team won at the Docklands was when it beat the Bulldogs in an upset result under caretaker coach, Mark Riley. That victory ultimately impacted on the club's draft position under the then existing rules and deprived it a year later of the opportunity to draft Nick Naitanui with a priority pick at the start of the selection process in addition to Jack Watts in the 2008 AFL National Draft.

Coach Dean Bailey and his men will have to break more than just a supposed ground hoodoo to win this game. The Demons seem to do well enough under their coach against clubs from outside of this State (particularly at home) but, of the other Victorian teams, wins have been restricted to only Essendon and Richmond. Rodney Eade's men have won all four games between the two clubs since Bailey took the helm as coach at Melbourne at the beginning of 2008.

Certainly, the Demons owe the Doggies one!

For starters, the Bulldogs coaxed Mission Foods away from the club as major sponsor a few years ago when it was struggling for a backer. Since the day the story of that event broke, I haven't so much as looked at a taco (but I do use Kaspersky products and get around on Hancook Tyres).

That's only the tip of the iceberg as far as I'm concerned. Bailey's second game as coach of Melbourne was against the Scraggers at the MCG. A week earlier, they lost the opening game of the season to Hawthorn by a margin in excess of 100 points. In game two they fared slightly better losing by 95 points against a far superior combination. Current Demon midfield coach Scott West polled the three Brownlow votes for the Western Bulldogs.

They met later that year at Etihad and the Doggies toyed with a dismally undermanned opponent to win by only 31 points in a lacklustre game. I rarely leave a game early but I was already at Flinders Street station at the final siren. That was in Round 15, 2008 and it was the last time the teams faced off against each other at the Docklands - exactly three years ago!

In the past two seasons, the clubs have met once each year with the Western Bulldogs victorious on both occasions but only by much narrower margins. The gap between the teams is narrowing.

All that said, I think the talk of hoodoos is not all that it's cracked up to be. I tend to agree with Bailey when he points to the fact that during this period his team has been in the development phase. We've seen this season that this process is proceeding apace and recently has beginning to bear some fruit - three wins in the past four weeks and a place in the top eight is testament to this. Despite the Dogs winning their last two games against lowly Adelaide and the Gold Coast Suns, they have been trending in the opposite direction.

In the long run it turns out that the Dishlickers from out Footscray way don't even have the edge over Melbourne at Friday night's venue, the Demons leading 6-5 overall.

And let's not forget that it was less than a month ago that Melbourne broke its Friday night "hoodoo" beating Essendon and winning a Friday night game for the first time since the 2006 Elimination Final.

The time is right for the Demons to show their mettle and to lay some ghosts of the recent past to rest.

THE GAME

Western Bulldogs v Melbourne at Etihad Stadium – Friday 1 July 2011 at 7.40pm (AEST)

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall: Western Bulldogs 69 wins Melbourne 83 wins

At Etihad Stadium: Western Bulldogs 5 wins Melbourne 6 wins

Since 2000: Western Bulldogs 9 wins Melbourne 10 wins

The Coaches: Eade 4 wins Bailey 0 wins

MEDIA

TV Channel 7 at 8.30pm (delayed telecast)

Radio - 3AW Triple M SEN K-Rock ABC774

THE BETTING Western Bulldogs to win $2.00 Melbourne to win $1.80.

LAST TIME THEY MET

Western Bulldogs 10.10.70 defeated Melbourne 9.12.66 in Round , 2010 at The MCG.

Fourteen months have passed since the painful late May Friday night when Melbourne did everything but win the game. It was the night of the breast cancer awareness promotion and the Demon uniform carried a pink yoke rather than a red one. Most experts acknowledge that Melbourne was the better team but the more experienced Western Bulldogs prevailed after scoring two late goals to scrape home. Tom Scully was outstanding all game but put in an exceptional final quarter.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

Backs James Strauss James Frawley Daniel Nicholson

Half backs Colin Garland Jared Rivers Nathan Jones

Centreline Jack Trengove Colin Sylvia Brad Green

Half forwards Tom Scully Liam Jurrah Cale Morton

Forwards Ricky Petterd Jack Watts Stefan Martin

Followers Mark Jamar Brent Moloney Jordie McKenzie

Interchange Jamie Bennell Sam Blease Jordie Gysberts Jeremy Howe

Emergencies Clint Bartram Matthew Bate Lynden Dunn

In Sam Blease

Out Joel Macdonald (Knee)

WESTERN BULLDOGS

Backs Robert Murphy Lukas Markovic Easton Wood

Half backs Dale Morris Tom Williams Lindsay Gilbee

Centreline Daniel Cross Matthew Boyd Liam Picken

Half forwards Shaun Higgins Liam Jones Luke Dahlhaus

Forwards Jarrad Grant Barry Hall Daniel Giansiracusa

Followers Ben Hudson Griffen Adam Cooney

Interchange Ed Barlow Andrew Hooper Sam Reid Callan Ward

Emergencies William Minson Christian Howard Jayden Schofield

In Jarrad Grant Andrew Hooper Lukas Markovic Sam Reid

Out Christian Howard William Minson Jayden Schofield Justin Sherman

Sometimes things happen for a reason. Demon fans were distraught earlier this year when, after notching up their biggest win since Dean Bailey took over as coach against Adelaide, the team seemed to fall into a black hole of injuries and suspensions.

In the space of a fortnight the list went from being virtually injury free (we were waiting for Tom Scully but just about everyone else was right) to having more than a dozen players unavailable including Jack Grimes and Jake Spencer out for the year. Mark Jamar's knee was to keep him out for six weeks, Aaron Davey and Colin Garland were major losses. Youngsters in Rohan Bail and Luke Tapscott reaching the peak of their form and others who would have been handy back ups were all on the sidelines. Jack Trengove was the victim of the AFL's infamous tackling rule, Lynden Dunn gone for two after a brain fade and Austin Wonaeamirri went home on compassionate leave to grieve the loss of a father and mentor.

We were starting to wonder whether the selectors would have enough numbers to pick a team.

The darkness before the dawn came on a Friday night at Carlton when an under resourced team played what was allegedly "bruise-free" football. In this negatively charged atmosphere, nothing went right.

As it happened, that Friday night turned out to be the darkness before the dawn for the Demons. Players stepped up, new men came into the team and the outfit that's wearing the red and the blue these days, is significantly different. With the return of key players back into the new mix, we see a team exuding confidence. The ruck/ forward combination of Mark Jamar and Stefan Martin is close to the best in the AFL. Jack Watts has stepped up as a forward, the midfield with Scully, Trengove, Jordie McKenzie and Jordan Gysberts augmenting the power of Brent Moloney and Nathan Jones is increasingly elevated in stature by the week. New faces in Jeremy Howe and Dan Nicholson continue to contribute and you get the feeling that Liam Jurrah is about to lift the roof of the stadium where he debuted a little over two years ago.

The Bulldogs are coming back to some semblance of form after a horrible start to the season and Friday's game will undoubtedly be a major challenge for them. However, the Demons have the momentum and the reward of a finals position is almost within their grasp. It's time to erase the memory of that night fourteen months ago when they wore pink and were pipped at the post.

Melbourne by 29 points.

It's petty, but I also haven't purchased a Mission Foods product since then. Bury the hoodoo and let's get on with it.

No excuses this week. We are in better form and should account for the Dogs.

Dees by 35 points, Watts to kick 5.

Blease to make debut. Joel Mac out.

Perhaps a more apt heading than you initially planned WJ.

If we have 22 blokes who are as hard, fierce, courageous and dashing as Sean Wight then we will not only win easily, but we will do him proud.

Smash those Doggies boys and give Sean one final rousing send-off!!!

Perhaps a more apt heading than you initially planned WJ.

If we have 22 blokes who are as hard, fierce, courageous and dashing as Sean Wight then we will not only win easily, but we will do him proud.

Smash those Doggies boys and give Sean one final rousing send-off!!!

You're right about that. It was the Oracle's heading and obviously written before Sean passed away.

He's happy to change it but perhaps some suggestions ...

Team is in: Blease in for MacDonald.

MELBOURNE

Backs James Strauss James Frawley Daniel Nicholson

Half backs Colin Garland Jared Rivers Nathan Jones

Centreline Jack Trengove Colin Sylvia Brad Green

Half forwards Tom Scully Liam Jurrah Cale Morton

Forwards Ricky Petterd Jack Watts Stefan Martin

Followers Mark Jamar Brent Moloney Jordie McKenzie

Interchange Jamie Bennell Sam Blease Jordie Gysberts Jeremy Howe

Emergencies Clint Bartram Matthew Bate Lynden Dunn

In Sam Blease

Out Joel Macdonald (Knee)

Good luck to Sam... first of many games in the red and blue.

Sam Blease in for his first game. This gives the team plenty of run at Etihad - like it!

Joel Macdonald (knee) the only out.

Good luck on your debut Sam.

IN: Sam Blease (Eastern Ranges)

OUT: Joel MacDonald (knee)

All the best Sammy.

edit: -

Team:

B: Nicholson Frawley Strauss

HB: Jones Rivers Garland

C: Green Sylvia Trengove

HF: Morton Jurrah Scully

F: Martin Watts Petterd

Foll: Jamar Moloney McKenzie

Int: Blease, Bennell, Gysberts, Howe

Emerg: Bartram Bate Dunn

Milestone: Garland - 50 games

I think that makes it 37 players used this season so far in total .

Gratz to Belase on his first game. Good luck!

Congrats to Sam Blease......been waiting for this kid to get a game for ages. Him and skulls best mates! Good luck

It's an exciting change.

We must be hitting a new record for least games played in the 22. BRFE?

I am loving how we are blooding new players and creating a merit based system.

Really happy to see Blease get some game time at the top level. From all reports he's got the dash and kick to be a weapon in the future. Once again coach Bailey takes the development route. Hats off to him for this.

Congratulation to Sam Blease, hope he does well at AFL level

It's an exciting change.

We must be hitting a new record for least games played in the 22. BRFE?

Amazing isn't it?

Out: 104 games

In: 0 games

Didn't think the number would get a lot lower than it has been. That said, a few numbers have rejoined the side since we last got a count.

lost me sorry, wtf is brfe

Big Red Fire Engine

It's petty, but I also haven't purchased a Mission Foods product since then. Bury the hoodoo and let's get on with it.

Nope its not petty, I do the same, and have trained my missus to do the same. Even if the mission products are on special, never buy!

Good luck to Bleasey. It is good to see as has been mentioned younger players getting a game on merit, not draft position and reputation

alone. Lets hope Lucas Cook and maybe even Tom McDonald can string a few good games together and also get a taster of what is required in

the big show before the end of the year...

Before the debacle I got their burritos pack, absolutely terrible.

I thought that Sam would be our X factor when he was drafted, i am really looking forward to seeing if the wait was worth it.

It's an exciting change.

We must be hitting a new record for least games played in the 22. BRFE?

I decided to actually do some analysis for myself for once rather than waiting for someone else to do it.

All stats count the number of matches played PRIOR to the match.

Melbourne's total matches played this week will be 1252. Gold Coast's last week as 1180. Gold Coast's lowest total of the season was against Melbourne with a paltry 802 games. Anyone want to hazard a guess as to why we flogged 'em? Brown and Ablett out makes a huge impact on their total, not to mention their ability as a side.

Interesting to note that last week against Richmond, we actually took in the more experienced side, however this week's change (Macdonald out, Blease in) would've tipped us under.

This week we will not see Melbourne's most inexperieced side. Its most inexperienced side of the year beat the Bummers by 33 points, with a tally of 1138 games between them. How delightful, couldn't have happened to a nicer bunch.

Our opposition's experience tally this week is 2156, which is AFTER they lose two 100+ gamers from their side and replace them with kids. This is a seriously experienced side, and we're every chance to severely embarrass them.

Best of luck to Sam Blease, do us proud!

These are the games we must be winning if we are a genuine finals chance. I reckon we can stand up and keep our spot in the eight. Dees by 34.