Road to the Finals - Round 18

[The Chazz 4,077]

For those who think we are still some slim shance of making finals, below are the matches that we need to keep an eye on for Round 18.

Brisbane vs Melbourne

Who do we need to win: Melbourne (of course!)

Who should win: Melbourne (not biased)

If we are any chance of making the 2010 finals series, the Dees MUST win this game. While our interstate record is poor, we have to be going in to this match with great confidence after an amazing team win last week, while the Lions are struggling BIG TIME. With our fearless leader back this week, this will only strengthen our chances this week.

Sydney vs Geelong

Who do we need to win: Geelong

Who should win: Geelong

Played at ANZ Stadium on Saturday night, the Swans will be looking for a more improved effort this week. While the match committee have left the team unchanged, they do come up against the might of Geelong. The Cats should win this one.

Richmond vs Adelaide

Who do we need to win: Richmond

Who should win: Adelaide

As this match is at the MCG on Sunday afternoon, it will give Richmond more of a chance, especially after the Crows performance in last weeks Showdown. Sadly though, the Tigers recent good form came to an abrupt end last week with a terrible performance against Collingwood. It would take a major turnaround in form to see the Tigers upsetting the Crows.

Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne

Who do we need to win: Western Bulldogs

Who should win: Western Bulldogs

At Etihad on Sunday afternoon, and with a dominant performance against the Dockers last week, the Bulldogs will go in to this match favourites and full of confidence. Will the Roos shut down the Dogs running game and cause an upset? Doubtful.

At the end of Round 18, and being realistic in the above selections, our "section"of the ladder will look like this;

8th - Sydney (36)

9th - Adelaide (32)

10th - North Melbourne (32)

11th - Melbourne (30)

I will aim to do this each week for those that are interested. If you're not interested, this thread does not require your comments.

Nb. My selections over the coming weeks will be based on my realistic opinion, with injuries and betting agency odds being taken in to consideration.

[The Chazz 4,077]

Could Mods please add (Round) 18 to the topic heading.

Cheers

[Eth 4]

Great idea. Hopefully the results fall our way this weekend

[Sir Why You Little 37,120]

If we can pull off a big win against the Bears this week we are a chance to make september, But we really must win a game away from the MCG soon. Once that Ball & Chain is Broken who knows what may happen.

I have a small feeling it could be 1987 all over again-But it does all hinge on this weeks result.-we need 4 points and more Percentage Boost. By Round 22 it's going to be real tight mid table.

[The Chazz 4,077]

Thanks for the feedback guys, will be happy to do it each week if you're interested!

I have sat down and looked at a number of different scenarios, and, mathematically, we are still a chance of making finals if we were to win only 3 of the next 5. A lot of results would have to go our way, but it's not out of the question!

While I'm happy for the Club to be concentrating on one week at a time, it'll be good to see how it all pans out. If we make finals - GREAT! If we don't - I'm still proud of their efforts for 2010.

[Sir Why You Little 37,120]

Thanks for the feedback guys, will be happy to do it each week if you're interested!

I have sat down and looked at a number of different scenarios, and, mathematically, we are still a chance of making finals if we were to win only 3 of the next 5. A lot of results would have to go our way, but it's not out of the question!

While I'm happy for the Club to be concentrating on one week at a time, it'll be good to see how it all pans out. If we make finals - GREAT! If we don't - I'm still proud of their efforts for 2010.

No i believe if we are to make finals, and hopefully win a final at the 'G we have got to win 4-5 and win them big. Momentum will get this side playing Top Footy.

If we limp in on % then it is almost not worth it.

Maybe thats why Michael Voss talked us up this week-we don't like being favourites

[The Chazz 4,077]

No i believe if we are to make finals, and hopefully win a final at the 'G we have got to win 4-5 and win them big. Momentum will get this side playing Top Footy.

If we limp in on % then it is almost not worth it.

Maybe thats why Michael Voss talked us up this week-we don't like being favourites

Trust me WYL - we CAN make the finals if we only win 3 more, providing other results go our way (hence it being a mathematical chance). The more we win, the better our chances. Either way, I think we (or whoever finishes 8th) will play Freo in Freo - a win would not be out of the question there.

Personally, I'd like to see us win 4, but if other teams do the right thing, I could be happy with 3!

[Sir Why You Little 37,120]

Trust me WYL - we CAN make the finals if we only win 3 more, providing other results go our way (hence it being a mathematical chance). The more we win, the better our chances. Either way, I think we (or whoever finishes 8th) will play Freo in Freo - a win would not be out of the question there.

Personally, I'd like to see us win 4, but if other teams do the right thing, I could be happy with 3!

I don't doubt your mathematics Billy, what i am saying is if we are to play in september i want us to go in there at full throttle with momentum-to scrape in, i wonder if it is worth it. But if we get on a roll, running the Ball through the middle over the next 4-5 weeks, well to play a final would be great for those kids.

[The Chazz 4,077]

I don't doubt your mathematics Billy, what i am saying is if we are to play in september i want us to go in there at full throttle with momentum-to scrape in, i wonder if it is worth it. But if we get on a roll, running the Ball through the middle over the next 4-5 weeks, well to play a final would be great for those kids.

Totally agree. If we were to win all 5 it would give the group at lot of confidence = would bean 2 interstate wins and a win against a contender (Hawthorn).

[old55 23,687]

Brisbane vs Melbourne

Who do we need to win: Melbourne (of course!)

Who should win: Melbourne (not biased)

If we are any chance of making the 2010 finals series, the Dees MUST win this game. While our interstate record is poor, we have to be going in to this match with great confidence after an amazing team win last week, while the Lions are struggling BIG TIME. With our fearless leader back this week, this will only strengthen our chances this week.

The bookies have Brisbane favourites - "follow the money" is usually a good idea.

A win for us would be against the odds.

[The Chazz 4,077]

The bookies have Brisbane favourites - "follow the money" is usually a good idea.

A win for us would be against the odds.

I did see that Old55, but I couldn't not pick Melbourne based on form. Home ground advantage is why they are favourite, but it is worth noting that "the smart money"has come for Melbourne - I think we opened up at around $2.15, now down to $2.06 or similar.

[Demon Rob 2]

from above;

> Percentage Boost. By Round 22 it's going to be real tight mid table.

> If we limp in on % then it is almost not worth it.

just remember percentage is now irrelevant, unless we have another draw.

I remember hand writing ladder predictions back in 87 and following them through the last rounds,

so much easier now with internet ladder prediction sites.

[The Chazz 4,077]

The drawn game against Collingwood could help us should it come down to that. Means our percentage will be somewhat irrelevant as the sides above us could be 1/2 a game in front of us, or 1/2 a game behind us.

[Dee*ceiving 1,690]

You beat me to it DR, % is irrelevant at the moment pending either:

The Dees playing in another draw

Another team or teams in ladder positions 7 - 12 playing in a draw

[Dee*ceiving 1,690]

Great post though, Billy

[Sir Why You Little 37,120]

You beat me to it DR, % is irrelevant at the moment pending either:

The Dees playing in another draw

Another team or teams in ladder positions 7 - 12 playing in a draw

Aah yes the draw..Forgot that little one. My Mistake-but who is to know whether another one will occur??

Last Friday's game was a beauty-Tough [censored] Hawthorn (The Sewerage Club, a mate calls them!!)

BUT still we need to win BIG if we are to make it to september. Those to young to remember '87 must realize the Emotional Momentum the club built up in those last 6 weeks and 3 in the finals was incredible.

It all starts this week-enemy territory. If we win, we deserve a crack.

[45HG 1,559]

I think I'll just go for the dees for the next few weeks and see if the cards fall

our way toward the end.

[Skipper3 7]

Nice work Billy.

[DeezMan 4]

A pity about those bloody Bombers destroying St Kilda. Seriously... wtf??? I do not for the life of me understand that mob down at Bomber Land...

The Dons are trying so hard to finish above Melbourne! But they have a very tough run home (Carlton, Pies, Brissy and then Doggies). Hopefully we can finish above Essendon seeing as our run home is significantly better!

Whilst I like the idea of this thread, it's too much of an even comp to predict who will finish where!!

- Sydney should fall out of the 8 as their run home is worse than Essendon's (Cats, Hawks, Freo @ Subi, Dogs and then Brissy @ Gabba)!!!

- North have the Dogs, Freo @ Etihad, Saints, Eagles @ Subi and then MELBOURNE!

- Adelaide's run is: Tigers @ the G', St Kilda @ Etihad, Brissy @ Gabba, Pies @ the G' and then St Kila @ AAMI!!! Look at how much they have to travel from now until Round 22!! Melbourne, then Melbourne again, then to Brisbane, then to Melbourne and then to Adelaide!! Tough.

- And we have Brissy at Gabba, Richmond, Hawks, Port @ AAMI then North.

Our run home is significantly better but I feel the only team we will beat is Richmond. We don't travel well AT ALL (especially to Adelaide!!), Hawks are far too classy and North have the wood over us!

[RalphiusMaximus 6,088]

A pity about those bloody Bombers destroying St Kilda. Seriously... wtf??? I do not for the life of me understand that mob down at Bomber Land...

The Dons are trying so hard to finish above Melbourne! But they have a very tough run home (Carlton, Pies, Brissy and then Doggies). Hopefully we can finish above Essendon seeing as our run home is significantly better!

Whilst I like the idea of this thread, it's too much of an even comp to predict who will finish where!!

- Sydney should fall out of the 8 as their run home is worse than Essendon's (Cats, Hawks, Freo @ Subi, Dogs and then Brissy @ Gabba)!!!

- North have the Dogs, Freo @ Etihad, Saints, Eagles @ Subi and then MELBOURNE!

- Adelaide's run is: Tigers @ the G', St Kilda @ Etihad, Brissy @ Gabba, Pies @ the G' and then St Kila @ AAMI!!! Look at how much they have to travel from now until Round 22!! Melbourne, then Melbourne again, then to Brisbane, then to Melbourne and then to Adelaide!! Tough.

- And we have Brissy at Gabba, Richmond, Hawks, Port @ AAMI then North.

Our run home is significantly better but I feel the only team we will beat is Richmond. We don't travel well AT ALL (especially to Adelaide!!), Hawks are far too classy and North have the wood over us!

Agreed.

We are our own biggest stumbling block at the moment. On form and ladder position we should be able to beat both Brisbane and Port, but our habit of falling apart on road trips could see us throw both games away. We desperately need to win this weeks game just to show ourselves that it is possible to win away from the G. I honestly think that this is a pivotal moment. If we can get a win in Brisbane it might give the boys some confidence to carry them over the line in Adelaide, but if we fall flat again there is no way they will take Port at home. That would leave us with a possible two wins from the final five rounds and no way to challenge for the 8.

Looking on the bright side though, this is not a season where we were expecting to make finals, and if we do only pull off 2 wins from the last 5 games we'll end up with 8 wins and a draw. I think that would have been enough to satisfy most of us at the start of the season. I'm pretty sure I had that range down as a good year. Making finals, or even giving them a really good scare, would be surpassing all reasonable expectations. I would be thrilled if we pulled it off, but I will be quite happy with two or three more wins and a big platform for next years finals tilt.

[Demon17 5,191]

[quote name='billy2803' date='30 July 2010 - 01:24 PM'

I will aim to do this each week for those that are interested. If you're not interested, this thread does not require your comments.

Nb. My selections over the coming weeks will be based on my realistic opinion, with injuries and betting agency odds being taken in to consideration.

[H_T 3,049]

I think I'll just go for the dees for the next few weeks and see if the cards fall

our way toward the end.

Indeed.

Btw, WYL, I replied to you last week that % would be irrelevant if we were the only team thereabouts with a draw.

Go Dees!

[Grandson of a gun 276]

Great post Billy.

Nice analysis.

I share your enthusiam and hope but the realistic side of me unfortunately doesn't align and i think we will finish in the 10-12 range. But who knows hey.............

[Sir Why You Little 37,120]

Indeed.

Btw, WYL, I replied to you last week that % would be irrelevant if we were the only team thereabouts with a draw.

Go Dees!

Sorry mate, must have missed that one. i am still travelling abroad in warm weather right now. I did see last nights game though-saints Footy is wobbling!! My Brother will be speechless....

[PeterJames 46]

Well at least Rioli won't be playing against us!