Winning shouldn't be a surprise

[ChaserJ 5,157]

In the wake of the great win against Brisbane (seriously can't remember seeing the Dee's play such a good brand of footy), my thought's inevitably drifted to how many wins the Dee's could manage this year. Is final's football an expectation too optimistic, or is it fair? The bottoming out process has not been an enjoyable spectacle for any Demon fan, but can we now declare it over, and the team officially rebuilt? Going into the season I was convinced that 6-8 wins would be satisfactory, but now I'm not sure. Certainly the last three seasons have seen my lower my expectations significantly, so I had to delve into the history books (or history website in this case) to see whether I had been selling my beloved Dee's too short.

Looking at other teams who have dipped into the draft well to rebuild, St Kilda seemed like the most obvious starting point for comparison. From a team that missed the finals by a game (and percentage admittedly) on 10 wins in 1999, the Saints went a deplorable 2 and 19 in 2000. Hello Nick Riewoldt and Jason Koschitzke. 2001 saw the Saints improve to 4 and 18, which netted them Luke Ball at the pointy end of the superdraft. Dal Santo came via a draft pick received for Barry Hall, Matt Maguire and Leigh Montana also came on board in a very good draft meeting for the Saints. A improvement to 5 wins in 2002 saw Brendon Goddard arrive (thanks to Carlton's draft exclusion due to salary cap breaches...nice).

After 3 years of talent stockpiling at the cost of onfield success saw a dramatic improvement in 2003. The ladder only had the Saints improving by four places, but the number of wins had jumped to 11, 2 games out of the 8. An even greater jump followed with 16 wins leading to a 3rd place finish. The Saints were well and truly off. Hawthorn went from consecutive bottom 3 finshes in 03 and 04, to 9th in 05 to finals footy in 06 before winning the premiership. 3 years seems to be the time it takes to rebuild a team from loser to genuine competitor via the draft. Hard to believe that Geelong had a (relatively) rough patch, missing the finals from 2000-2002. Whilst never finishing low enough to qualify for a priority pick, these years still saw the Cats recruit a large portion of their current superstar team. In their third rebuilding year the Cat's managed only 7 wins, but managed to reverse the win loss column and finish in 4th with 14 wins in 2004.

Melbourne have hit some painful lows over the last three years, but if these precedents are any indication, the Dee's still have plenty to offer this year, not just in terms of excitment, but also in the wins column. Finals aren't just an optimistic expectation, they are a realistic one.

Edited April 29, 2010 by ChaserJ

[H_T 3,049]

Well supported post ChaserJ. I guess we may have more of an indication after the next 3 weeks. Nth, Dogs, Eagles.

Let us also not forget that some are of the opinion last season could well have been 6-7 wins.

[Adelaide Demon 0]

I said before the start of the season that 8 wins was the aim. After the last month, I think 10 would be breaking even from this point forward. Feels good to say that. Looking at the draw, I honestly think we will be 11 wins 11 losses after 22. This week will be a very interesting one. If we did win 10-12 games, it would be a very rapid rise. I think the Hawks' rise was something that we should hope for, and I think we will emulate it. I think that a model of, starting with the season following the lowest finish(es), 7-8 wins, 10-12 wins, 13-15 wins, Prelim finals, GF/Flag(s), is realistic and should be what we are aiming for. Although if we get 10-11 wins this season that would be a great bonus and could put us a year ahead on that timeline.

[ChaserJ 5,157]

This article seems to run corollary to the opening post:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/demons-rule-draft/story-e6frf9jf-1225827457502

[rpfc 28,779]

I'm much more concerned with exposure to the AFL of our young talent and consistent application rather than wins.

We are not a chance to win the flag this year, so development of our youngsters should be the priority - if that leads to wins (it is at the moment) then so be it.

[Dreamin' Demon 10]

I'm sticking to my 6-8 wins for the year. As much as I hate to say it - but i'm not looking forward to the floggings that we will receive this year - and we will get them.

We are still a developing list & recent wins have overshadowed that we are still young, inexperienced & our injury list is short.

[Trengove_is_God 0]

If we werent tanking last year would have won 7-9 games.

This season I will not accept any less than 8, but I am thinking now that we will make it to double figues and maybe even the Finals.

[Roost It 1,434]

I'm sticking to my 6-8 wins for the year. As much as I hate to say it - but i'm not looking forward to the floggings that we will receive this year - and we will get them.

We are still a developing list & recent wins have overshadowed that we are still young, inexperienced & our injury list is short.

I'm over floggings and I'm pretty sure our players are too. Yes we our young, inexperienced & our injury list is short however we still have Morton, Strauss, Cheney, Bail, Miller, Rivers, Jetta and Maric who have all played senior football and could easily slot into our side. Not to mention one fairly handy Number 1 pick as well as a bloke from Yuendumu who all may look upon your post with the same disdain I just did.

The 6-8 wins thing is "SO PRESEASON"

Minimum 10 with ease.

[Sir Why You Little 37,134]

Most teams in the AFL now have inexperienced Kiddies on their lists, so i don't know whether i can accept that excuse any more.

How Hungry is our team this year? Not next year or 2012, but this year. Games such as tomorrow will give all of us an idea.

Personally having jim stynes on the boundry at each games end is a huge Bonus. It lifts EVERYONE.

If the Hunger is there this year, we can play finals-We do have experience on our list as well.

A good run with injuries will be a major factor this year.

Do it for Jimma Demons B)

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

If you take a close look at the best performed sides of last year, I reckon we have them beaten going on not just the Brisbane game, but any game of the last 4 weeks. Adelaide, Brisbane, Collingwood... we know we either can or have beaten them... And Geelong (running on about 3 cylinders at the moment), Saints and Dogs (both looked like they'd struggle against us going by last night).. that's the top 6 from last year right there.

It's odd, but going up against the Dockers or Swans right now seems like the most daunting task in footy.

Truth be told I think those sides will all lift mid-year and reclaim their spots in the 8. But given we have 3, maybe after today 4 wins... we're already approaching the halfway mark in the "W" column of what we'd need.

This year, and any year it seems these days, is ALL about injuries. WHo has them and who doesn't defines your season.

[Allen Jakovich 516]

As I wrote in my sig in round 22 last year, we will make the finals.

Whether we can win a final, I'm not sure at this stage.

[Jarka 767]

At the start of the season I thought that 6-8 wins would be acceptable, but now anything seems possible. The club has already overtaken my expectations so I'm loathe to set a new target. We're still a young developing team and at some stage we have to get games into Watts, Blease, Gysberts, Strauss, Fitzpatrick, Jurrah, Wona etc.

We've got some tough games coming up, starting today, so I think the next two weeks will give us a good indication of where we're at.

[timD 994]

What has confused me is the form of the mids. Junior, beamer and jones have, IMO, never played this well and NEVER played this well all at the same time. Jordie is a revelation and scully and trenners are just quietly good. The running defence is reliable: Bruce, macdonald and grimes all run hard, link well, and can outmark opponents regularly. When we get that overlap run going, we look fantastic and we have not been able to do it for more than moments over the last 3 years. Who would have thought that so many pennies would drop simultaneously?

[Jaded No More 68,974]

scully and trenners are just quietly good.

That is the textbook definition of keeping a lid on it

[timD 994]

My hopes have been so categorically razed in the past that I just gotta, Jaded.

[Old Gregg 1]

I tried to read this post, but I couldn't get past the 4 errant apostrophes in the first two sentences...sorry

Eventually got there though, good analysis