Won four last year, could easily have been 7. That's why I think 8 this year is not out of the question.

Definately will be frustrating. I think we will win 5-7.

In the cold light of January it is a little difficult to see where 8+ wins will come from.

<b>Good chance of victory (7): </b>

Richmond (@ MCG x 2)

North Melbourne (@ Etihad + MCG)

West Coast (@ MCG)

Port Adelaide (@ TIO)

Sydney Swans (@ MCG)

<b>

Unexpected but possible (6): </b>

Collingwood (@ MCG x 2)

Port Adelaide (@ AAMI)

Carlton (@ MCG)

Essendon (@ MCG)

Fremantle (@ Subiaco)

<b>Major upset required (5): </b>

Hawthorn (@ MCG x 2)

Adelaide (@ MCG)

Brisbane Lions (@ MCG)

Western Bulldogs (@ MCG)

<b>No chance (4): </b>

Geelong (@ Skilled)

Adelaide (@ AAMI)

Brisbane Lions (@ Gabba)

St Kilda (@ Etihad)

Nice way of looking at it. Can't really fault any of those groupings. With a bit of luck with injuries hopefully we'll sneak a few wins out of that 'Unexpected but possible' group and end up with around 7-9 wins this year.

Without seeming to cliche a lot will depend on how they get out of the blocks..as will other teams. Even if not necessarily winning all and sundry but getting near...and being at the contest as well as making one then the Dees could get some real belief happening. Especially with G games early.

Some have got 'impossible to win games"....rubbish.. on the day strange things happen.. Weve struggled to get 2 and 3 good quarters together. When that starts happening then youre every chance to win any game.

yesterdays paper over here in the west put us 12th, 6-8 wins, ahead of freo, richmond, essendon and port i think.

I placed a wager on the dees for a long lunch at the Italian on Flinders Lane with my boss. Loser pays. Probably cost about $150 - $200.

If Melbourne comes bottom 3 I lose and pay.

If Melbourne comes 13th we go dutch

Anything above 13th he pays.

I think its a fair bet.

I think 8 wins should be the target for the MFC.

i have a slab bet with 3 different people that melbourne will finish above essendon.

i was laughed at when i offered......

I placed a wager on the dees for a long lunch at the Italian on Flinders Lane with my boss. Loser pays. Probably cost about $150 - $200.

If Melbourne comes bottom 3 I lose and pay.

If Melbourne comes 13th we go dutch

Anything above 13th he pays.

I think its a fair bet.

I think 8 wins should be the target for the MFC.

that's probably exactly fair

Wouldn't mind a season like Essendon's 2009 - a few unexpected but stirring wins against top sides, even at the expense of one or two unexpected losses that should have been wins, and sneak into the 8, even if just to make up the numbers. At this stage that seems a bit of a stretch, but it was for Essendon this time last year - you never know.

I reckon 6-8

I reckon 6-8

After Hearing CC's interview a couple of times yesterday i reckon we shall win 25 Games 0 Losses and the 13th Elusive Flag is ours!!! B) B) .....NEXT.

Edited February 3, 201015 yr by why you little

<b>Good chance of victory (7): </b>

Richmond (@ MCG x 2)

North Melbourne (@ Etihad + MCG)

West Coast (@ MCG)

Port Adelaide (@ TIO)

Sydney Swans (@ MCG)

<b>

Unexpected but possible (6): </b>

Collingwood (@ MCG x 2)

Port Adelaide (@ AAMI)

Carlton (@ MCG)

Essendon (@ MCG)

Fremantle (@ Subiaco)

<b>Major upset required (5): </b>

Hawthorn (@ MCG x 2)

Adelaide (@ MCG)

Brisbane Lions (@ MCG)

Western Bulldogs (@ MCG)

<b>No chance (4): </b>

Geelong (@ Skilled)

Adelaide (@ AAMI)

Brisbane Lions (@ Gabba)

St Kilda (@ Etihad)

Very nice appraisal of our chances this season, Rod. I like it! If it was me, I'd make a few little changes, though.

Like a few others here, I don't think any game is unwinable. Like BB59 says, we pushed last year's losing grand finalists late last season until Bails started tanking (had to take off LJ, who was in the process of ripping them a new one.) Given a change in our motivation this season, from priority picks to winning games, I reckon we are more likely to pinch a game like this. I'd just have one group of games requiring a major upset.

Also, I think there are a bunch of games we should be going into with an expectation that we are going to win. We won't win them all, of course, but we should expect to win most of them.

The remainder of the games are unlikely victories, but we could pinch a few of them.

So it just comes down to how many games within each of these groups we think we might win. Here's my effort ...

<b>Realistic expectation of victory (6): </b>

Richmond (@ MCG x 2)

North Melbourne (@ MCG)

West Coast (@ MCG)

Port Adelaide (@ TIO)

Sydney Swans (@ MCG)

(I think we can win 4 to 6 of these games)

<b>Some chance of victory(7): </b>

North Melbourne (@ Etihad)

Collingwood (@ MCG x 2)

Port Adelaide (@ AAMI)

Carlton (@ MCG)

Essendon (@ MCG)

Fremantle (@ Subiaco)

(and 1 to 3 of these games)

<b>Major upset required (9): </b>

Hawthorn (@ MCG x 2)

Adelaide (@ MCG)

Brisbane Lions (@ MCG)

Western Bulldogs (@ MCG)

Geelong (@ Skilled)

Adelaide (@ AAMI)

Brisbane Lions (@ Gabba)

St Kilda (@ Etihad)

(and maybe 1 of these)

Of course, our chance of victory in all of these games is based on what we think the respective oppositions form will be like in '10. At this stage of the year, we really don't know will exceed expectations and who will disappoint. We just know that at least some teams will do one or the other.

But all else being equal, its 7 to 8 wins for me!

Interesting that the Ox yesterday said on Radio that he expected the Demons to win a minimum of 8 games next year.

Anything less was not acceptable. This has to be a Hard Tough year for the MFC

Young players are going to be pushed hard.

I am just concerned about the Rucks (lack of them) & our lack of experience throughout the side

But i am going to watch and Trust the FD closely this year.

We are almost a new club in all areas.

8 wins,we have 6 games against Richmond,North & Freo and i don't think Port,Essendon and Carlton will be much this year and West Coast could be another win.

This year is just about getting games into our young list and jelling together as a team and keeping injuries to a minimum.

Watts,Grimes,Scully,Trengove,Gysberts,Tapscott,Blease,Strauss,Jurrah,Wona need 60-80 games in them before we become a force.

6 wins:

@ Richmond (rd 4)

@ North Melb (rd 6)

V West Coast (rd 8)

V Essendon (rd 15)

V Sydney (rd 17)

V North Melb (rd 22)

For some reason I don't share a lot of people's optimisim of 8+ wins. Maybe I've been scarred by our 2007-2009 performances. Maybe the majority of our potential has played less than 40 games and that we have still have too many NQR's on the senior list (Bartram, Johnson, Bell, Dunn, Miller, Cheney) that will play most weeks. Maybe our fwd line doesn't have enough bite to kick winning scores every second week.

2010 is still a project year IMO by virtue of having a list that is stockpiled with recent draft picks, and as long as we don't win another spoon (6 wins should be enough) I'll be cool with the above results.

Thanks BBP, u saved me from writing an essay!

6 wins is a fail

7 wins is a pass

8 wins or better will be sensational, and we would be on track for finals in 2011

Very nice appraisal of our chances this season, Rod. I like it! If it was me, I'd make a few little changes, though.

...

So it just comes down to how many games within each of these groups we think we might win. Here's my effort ...

(I think we can win 4 to 6 of these games)

(and 1 to 3 of these games)

(and maybe 1 of these)

Of course, our chance of victory in all of these games is based on what we think the respective oppositions form will be like in '10. At this stage of the year, we really don't know will exceed expectations and who will disappoint. We just know that at least some teams will do one or the other.

But all else being equal, its 7 to 8 wins for me!

Reasonable analysis - what you're saying is somewhere between 5 and 10 wins.

8 wins,we have 6 games against Richmond,North & Freo and i don't think Port,Essendon and Carlton will be much this year and West Coast could be another win.

This year is just about getting games into our young list and jelling together as a team and keeping injuries to a minimum.

Watts,Grimes,Scully,Trengove,Gysberts,Tapscott,Blease,Strauss,Jurrah,Wona need 60-80 games in them before we become a force.

i reckon you can take liam off that list, he's ready to go right now

Edited February 5, 201015 yr by oldman emubitter

8-10 wins for me, I reckon at our best we could be 4-1 after round 5

8-10 wins for me, I reckon at our best we could be 4-1 after round 5

Wonder what Shane Crawford would think about that ...

Wonder what Shane Crawford would think about that ...

He'd think the loss must've been against Hawthorn, because they can do no wrong and the AFL revolves around them.

Loving the Bell Curve, it makes the poll look more believable.

I reckon 8 wins should be the par... cbf working out who we'll actually beat.

I look at it from the point of view that we were tanking last year and could've won 6-7 games easily - Richmond and West Coast for a start, and then possibly even St Kilda or Carlton - Frawley had both Fev and Roo on toast before being dragged. Add natural improvement to that, and an actual desire to win every game possible, and 8-10 wins is very achievable, hopefully finishing 10-12.

I also say that because I have $50 on us not being Bottom 4 with an Essendon fan... c'mon Dees, pull through for me. Incidentally I also have a slab of Crown on the line with the same guy about whether us or them win a flag first.

i have a slab bet with 3 different people that melbourne will finish above essendon.

i was laughed at when i offered......

today is a happy day for me, despite our loss. we had a bad day, they are a rabble. [censored] the lot of them.

I placed a wager on the dees for a long lunch at the Italian on Flinders Lane with my boss. Loser pays. Probably cost about $150 - $200.

If Melbourne comes bottom 3 I lose and pay.

If Melbourne comes 13th we go dutch

Anything above 13th he pays.

I think its a fair bet.

I think 8 wins should be the target for the MFC.

i have a slab bet with 3 different people that melbourne will finish above essendon.

i was laughed at when i offered......

You're both going to salute. Nice work.

I also say that because I have $50 on us not being Bottom 4 with an Essendon fan... c'mon Dees, pull through for me. Incidentally I also have a slab of Crown on the line with the same guy about whether us or them win a flag first.

I have a bottle of Johnnie Blue on the Dees winning a flag before the Bombers! Hope we're both right!

Had a slab on us getting to 8 wins with a Pies supporting friend.

He has already passed on the proceeds!

today is a happy day for me, despite our loss. we had a bad day, they are a rabble. [censored] the lot of them.

make sure you have a laugh when they deliver the slab(s)...well done.