Michael Newton

[Doggo 32]

To prevent me hijacking another thread, i wanted to start a new one all about Newton. Without trying to turn this into a player bash, i'm interested to know everyones thoughts regarding Juice and whether he'll make it, and the reasons behind them?

The majority of this post i wrote in another thread weeks ago when Newton wasn't getting a game, but I thought it might be more relevant now he's back in the side. Obviously i'll be happy to be proven wrong, but IMO he just doesn't have what it takes. He has some 'nice' parts to his game, but is lacking the major fundamentals to being a good AFL key forward. He's the icing and the cherry on top, minus the cake.

He's tall, he can jump and can take a big pack mark with a clear run at the footy. He's got good hands. He's shown good goal sense. He's also improved his defensive side, which he copped a lot of criticism for in the past, and his attitude and team play is much better now. So why isn't he cracking a regular game, considering all the improvements he's made, plus the fact that he consistently kicks goals for Casey, and that we're crying out for another key position forward to take the reigns from Robbo? Brad Miller has gone backwards in that regard, so why no love from the FD for Juice?

IMO, the areas most lacking in his overall package, and basically that which is stopping him from having the same impact at AFL level that he has at VFL level, are: lack of leg-speed and endurance (or perhaps work-ethic?) on the lead; a lack of upper body strength in one-on-one contested situations; and shocking accuracy in front of goal.

A forward in modern AFL footy needs to be able to do more than just take a pack mark with an unimpeded run and jump, and get the occassional ground level goal. At VFL level, where the game is slower and the bodies not as strong, it might work a treat. At AFL level that style of play is largely hit-and-miss. Good forwards in the AFL need to be able to get on their bikes and make several, hard, intelligent repeat leads. Think Riewoldt, Richo, Franklin etc. I've never seen him in my time watching him play for Melbourne, Casey and Sandy, display any sort of real speed, or the work-ethic and endurance to make several, hard, repeat leads. More often than not, he prefers to be the old-style 'stay-at-home' forward, calling for the ball to be kicked long, high and on his head, despite being outnumbered by zoning defenders. Might have worked in the 80's and 90's, but that style of play isn't going to cut it these days with the growing trend of pushing numbers behind the ball and teams playing 'rolling zones'.

The most effective way to beat numbers and find space inside the crowded forward 50's of the modern game is to be constantly on the move. Robbo, despite all his defensive flaws (and like Newton, his love for the ball to be kicked on his head), is actually a great exponent of this part of forward line movement. He's constantly moving in and out of dangerous spaces, presenting up and doubling back, creating doubt in his defenders mind, and space for others by drawing defenders to and from the footy. Newton hasn't shown any great ability or forward smarts to do that yet. But hard, repeat leading is just one (albeit important) aspect of modern forwardline play.

To be fair, not every KPF needs to have the speed and endurance of a Nick Riewoldt, Richo or Buddy on the lead to be effective. If, like Newton, you aren't the greatest 'lead-up' forward, you need to excel in another important area; one-on-one/body-on-body, contested marking, ie. you need to be strong! Guys like Bradshaw, J Roughead or Kurt Tippett, not the quickest or best lead-up forwards, but exceptionally strong in the upper body. They thrive on the physical side of marking contests and the "tests of strength". Newton struggles with this side of AFL footy more than any other area IMO. After 4 seasons on an AFL list, his body still looks immature and he's nowhere near strong enough to play as the body-on-body type. Yet he calls for the ball in contested situations more than he leads out to present.

The real 'elite' forwards have the ability to do both; lead hard and repeatedly, AND use their body strength in one-on-one situations: Riewoldt, Richo, Fev, Lloyd, J Brown, Buddy, Roughead etc. The 'good' forwards generally can do one of the two really well, and the other at least adequately.

Newton is barely adequate in both areas. Add to that his erratic kicking, and the lack of opportunity he's been given at the top level suddenly looks a lot more justified. Unless he can put some serious muscle on in the next pre-season, or can gain an extra yard in pace and a bigger engine, he's always going to be too limited a player to succeed at AFL level, IMO.

Everyone wants a 194cm key forward who jumps on the head of packs and takes huge screamers. But what good is that if he can't lead well, isn't strong or fast, and is about as reliable a shot for goal as Richo on a bad day? Not much if you ask me.

Your thoughts? Will he or won't he make it?

Sorry about the long post.

Edited July 28, 2009 by Doggo

[Guest Rojik of the Arctic]

I would love to be proved wrong on this but it's a no from me. Miller and him are the same. They look good in the 2's but lost at the top level. I thought that he looked better when he was leading up the ground on Sunday but Brad can do the same thing, so we are left with 2 players that can grab a mark 80m out but can't do anything special with it, and when they are 40m out can't convert. I don't know what we should do about him. Maybe a rocket up the bum is needed over the pre-season or else he will be 24 and playing country football and wondering what could have been.

[hells bells 2,022]

Your thoughts? Will he or won't he make it?

IMO, he should have shown more by now, 4ish years in the system and can barely crack a game in the seniors and isn´t dominating the VFL.

History books will be marked as

Michael Newton

No. 29

BIO

2007 mark of the year

..

..

..

Not much else

I think he´s got 1 more year on his contract. Needs to get his head read to work out his kicking for goal problem if he´s to be any chance.

Would love to see him make it but I don´t hold great hopes for him.

[BAMF 3,787]

He's got another year left on his contract. So i guess he has one more roll of the dice.

5 years in and we haven't managed to get anything out of him yet. Not even showing signs that he could break out to be a good player.

[Binmans PA 26,049]

I think there were signs earlier this season that he was beginning to find his feet. He was getting the ball a lot and in dangerous positions, but he just could not convert. If he gets it right, I still believe he could be a player.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

I would love to be proved wrong on this but it's a no from me. Miller and him are the same. They look good in the 2's but lost at the top level. I thought that he looked better when he was leading up the ground on Sunday but Brad can do the same thing, so we are left with 2 players that can grab a mark 80m out but can't do anything special with it, and when they are 40m out can't convert. I don't know what we should do about him. Maybe a rocket up the bum is needed over the pre-season or else he will be 24 and playing country football and wondering what could have been.

Both Miller and Newton have question marks about whether they will make it or not. Newton has some talents but really is flaky between the ears and I dont think gets whats required at AFL level. I think he is start to twig to it but its a slow process.

Miller does not have that same ability but relies on his athleticism and work ethic to make the most of his limited talents. IMO its not enough and at year end Miller is likely to be delisted.

Newton is a question mark. He has another year on his contract but sands in the hour glass are starting to run down. He needs to get his head right to maintain his position in the AFL. That includes kicking goals from gettable shots. ATM he is as good as a golfer that cant putt. With Watts coming on, Jurrah looking special and Bate starting to mature I am not sure the window of opportunuity that has been crying for Newtonto step up will be there in 9 to 12 months unless there is a big change. He will be fascinating to observe re his progress or lack thereof.

[Hannabal 4]

Newton is adequate at VFL level, but he's not even a gun there. And at his age he should be.

Won't make it at AFL.

[JACKATTACK 17]

I voted No, but I don't think it is that black or white,a more relevant question would be:

Considering he has a year left on his contract would you;

1: Keep Juice on the books.

2: Pay out his contract and delist.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

2: Pay out his contract and delist.

You have penchant for suggesting this treatment. Do you understand the ramification for doing this with other players, their player managers and the AFL? Clearly not

You just dont go and do this unless the situation is extreme. (eg Carroll).

Its not a viable nor sensible option. We either keep him for a year or trade him.

[Guest melbman]

I'd love to see him succeed, both for himself and for the team, but I think he is too passive by nature and the hunger for competition isn't as strong for him as it is in the gun players IMO

That's probably a long bow to draw considering I've never spoken to the guy but there you go.....

[Grand New Flag 3,226]

I think Newton is our best weapon in "list management". I am certain we will continue to play him for the remainder of the season where he is very likely to waste many of our scoring opportunities with appalling kicking. His attitude and defensive ethic this season has been a significant improvement on previous seasons. He is a fantastic mark.......... but....... he can't kick, is terrible under his knees, is pathetic under pressure, has not learnt how to lead, and most importantly has failed to take opportunities.

Football is a game of opportunity. Success is defined by those teams (both on field and off) and individuals who are able to take their opportunities and those which are not. The MFC is currently trying to take its opportunity to pick up two of the best 18 year olds in the country. Newton has never been able to take his opportunity and has major limitations particularly with his kicking. Thus it makes good sense for Melbourne to play him at the moment.

Personally I don't think he will make it, and I am not too interested in being proven wrong this season. What scares me though is that Newton is the sort of player who one day will have a day out kick 8 straight and deliver us a win, which at the moment would be an unwanted win. Hopefully DB would move him to CHF or give him a run at CHB if he starts having this sort of game this season.

Delisting time will be hard work this season. If it came down to the 6th player to be delisted I would much prefer it to be Newton paying out his contract than Robertson who has had no preseason, back from a horrific injury, yet still demands the best defender which opens up opportunity for our new young forward line. Robbo has bleed for this club while Newton has treated his contract with contempt at times.

[JACKATTACK 17]

You have penchant for suggesting this treatment. Do you understand the ramification for doing this with other players, their player managers and the AFL? Clearly not

You just dont go and do this unless the situation is extreme. (eg Carroll).

Its not a viable nor sensible option. We either keep him for a year or trade him.

Kneejerk.

At no point did I suggest that option 2 was my preference. I simply suggested that given the results of the poll, that the people who voted 'No' would then be forced to ask this question. If you must know I voted 'No' to the Poll, and probably fall on the line of giving Juice another year (1) as per his contract, but only just. And given the general feel of some posters here I would suggest that many would prefer option 2, despite the need to appease other players.

As I see it one of Bell, Dunn, Newton & PJ (who all have contracts for next year?) will have to be moved on, so we face the situation anyway. I would be dissapointed if the club holds on to sub-par players simply because they don't want to get players and player managers off side.

[Jaded No More 57,810]

Newton is adequate at VFL level, but he's not even a gun there. And at his age he should be.

Won't make it at AFL.

Agreed.

The goal kicking is the least of his problems.

It's the positioning, the lack of smarts, the inability to read the play etc... etc... that makes him a passable VFL player and one that is very very unlikely to make it in the AFL.

That his kicking skills are poor is the cherry on top of the salty cake.

[Vipercrunch 2,804]

I voted Yes. I do however think that it might take a switch of clubs to get him motivated enough to get to the standard. The good old "change of scenary" and "needed the reality check" sort of thing. I wouldn't be surprised if one day he kicks a bag against Melbourne, but I would prefer him to be kicking them for us.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Kneejerk.

At no point did I suggest that option 2 was my preference. I simply suggested that given the results of the poll, that the people who voted 'No' would then be forced to ask this question. If you must know I voted 'No' to the Poll, and probably fall on the line of giving Juice another year (1) as per his contract, but only just. And given the general feel of some posters here I would suggest that many would prefer option 2, despite the need to appease other players.

As I see it one of Bell, Dunn, Newton & PJ (who all have contracts for next year?) will have to be moved on, so we face the situation anyway. I would be dissapointed if the club holds on to sub-par players simply because they don't want to get players and player managers off side.

I am glad the responsibility does not rest in the hands of supporters. They would be the last people who should be making such decisions on list management.

I think you need to understand what you do when sign a contract for 2 or 3 years it represents a commitment to the player and their stakeholders to honour that contract with the Club or seek other terms of trade with another Club that will at least fulfil the contract provided the player honours their conditions.

You really damage the relationship with the actual players, their teammates, their player managers (who often represent a number of clubs). Player managers have a big influence on the terms and conditions that players contract with your club and other clubs. Pulling the contract or just paying it out causes immeasurable bad blood about the Club within the industry. Its something no Club let alone our Club can ill afford to do.

Furthermore we can hardly go cap in hand to the AFL for further funding if we are repeatedly paying out contracts early. It smacks of incompetence and bad business. Every Club holds players on their list they will ulitimately delist. But they dont pay out early except in extreme circumstances pay out any player because of it.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

That his kicking skills are poor is the cherry on top of the salty cake.

For a full forward, its a pretty big cherry!

[JACKATTACK 17]

I am glad the responsibility does not rest in the hands of supporters. They would be the last people who should be making such decisions on list management.

I think you need to understand what you do when sign a contract for 2 or 3 years it represents a commitment to the player and their stakeholders to honour that contract with the Club or seek other terms of trade with another Club that will at least fulfil the contract provided the player honours their conditions.

You really damage the relationship with the actual players, their teammates, their player managers (who often represent a number of clubs). Player managers have a big influence on the terms and conditions that players contract with your club and other clubs. Pulling the contract or just paying it out causes immeasurable bad blood about the Club within the industry. Its something no Club let alone our Club can ill afford to do.

Furthermore we can hardly go cap in hand to the AFL for further funding if we are repeatedly paying out contracts early. It smacks of incompetence and bad business. Every Club holds players on their list they will ulitimately delist. But they dont pay out early except in extreme circumstances pay out any player because of it.

I don't think it is as ugly as you make it out to be, in the case of Newton he might be better served to be paid out, be free to move to another club via the PSD and maybe give himself a chance in a different environment. A win-win for club and player, Newton could even get a double dip. I'm not advocating it in this case, i am simply suggesting it as a realistic option that is certainly worth considering, i'm sure the club is also considering it.

[e25 5]

I am glad the responsibility does not rest in the hands of supporters. They would be the last people who should be making such decisions on list management.

I think you need to understand what you do when sign a contract for 2 or 3 years it represents a commitment to the player and their stakeholders to honour that contract with the Club or seek other terms of trade with another Club that will at least fulfil the contract provided the player honours their conditions.

You really damage the relationship with the actual players, their teammates, their player managers (who often represent a number of clubs). Player managers have a big influence on the terms and conditions that players contract with your club and other clubs. Pulling the contract or just paying it out causes immeasurable bad blood about the Club within the industry. Its something no Club let alone our Club can ill afford to do.

Furthermore we can hardly go cap in hand to the AFL for further funding if we are repeatedly paying out contracts early. It smacks of incompetence and bad business. Every Club holds players on their list they will ulitimately delist. But they dont pay out early except in extreme circumstances pay out any player because of it.

I can see the club during trade week actively seeking a trade of a player such as Bell, Dunn, Newton, Bate, PJ, Bartram etc. plus our 3rd round pick for an average quality young player.

It'd be purely to free up list space, but I think it needs to be done.

Trades like this to create list / cap space happen all the time in other sports, like NBA and in this case we must be no different.

[do it 4 robbie 1]

I'd love to see him succeed, both for himself and for the team, but I think he is too passive by nature and the hunger for competition isn't as strong for him as it is in the gun players IMO

That's probably a long bow to draw considering I've never spoken to the guy but there you go.....

Spot on.

I had a chat to `Juice' with a mate of mine before the walk to the G day last year. He was in the crowd and not playing - not sure why. We stood there stunned as he told us he was glad he wasn`t playing as it was a miserable day for a forward weather wise. It was raining. Maybe he was trying to look cool in front of a couple of young guys, i don`t know, but it wasn`t what we were expecting. He may enjoy his footy but the passion to suceed or more importantly win just wasn`t there and thats what we all want.

[Akum 2,660]

The goal kicking is the least of his problems.

It's the positioning, the lack of smarts, the inability to read the play etc... etc... that makes him a passable VFL player and one that is very very unlikely to make it in the AFL.

That his kicking skills are poor is the cherry on top of the salty cake.

This is true to an extent. On the other hand, if he'd kicked straight on Sunday he could/should have got 4 or 5, despite all his other deficiencies. And he did heaps more than Jesse White, who's supposed to be good, have lots of potential etc.

The point is, what do we want from him? I suppose when it comes down to it, if he can get even just 2 or 3 goals a game, he's worth his place in the side no matter how bad he looks, or whether he gets them by pack-crunching marks or not. If he plays every game & gets 50 goals in a season, that's a good contribution, worth his place in the side. Especially if he keeps up his current level of defensive pressure.

So IMO, whether he makes it in the AFL or not is purely down to whether or not he can improve his kicking for goal, especially from set shots. And that's just impossible to predict.

[Vipercrunch 2,804]

If he kicked all the easy ones, he would be easily averageing 2-3 a game, and would have a few bags of 4+. There have been comparisons made in previous threads between him and Hawkins. I am of the view that Newton would kick more goals if he was in Geelongs forward line than Hawkins does, and that is if he still missed the occasional easy one.

[donny williams no 25 0]

Both Miller and Newton have question marks about whether they will make it or not. Newton has some talents but really is flaky between the ears and I dont think gets whats required at AFL level. I think he is start to twig to it but its a slow process.

Miller does not have that same ability but relies on his athleticism and work ethic to make the most of his limited talents. IMO its not enough and at year end Miller is likely to be delisted.

Newton is a question mark. He has another year on his contract but sands in the hour glass are starting to run down. He needs to get his head right to maintain his position in the AFL. That includes kicking goals from gettable shots. ATM he is as good as a golfer that cant putt. With Watts coming on, Jurrah looking special and Bate starting to mature I am not sure the window of opportunuity that has been crying for Newtonto step up will be there in 9 to 12 months unless there is a big change. He will be fascinating to observe re his progress or lack thereof.

--. This is a good post. Some say he's no good below his knees but in that area he's better than Neitz was.

I was at a dinner shortly after the match v Richmond, when DB spoke and pointed out that Newton ghad missed a couple of easy goals, he'd kicked one beauty on the run. Yet, after the match v Adelaide he was dropped-- too soon in my view.And at another function I attended Schwarz described him as having a 'big,hoofing kick.[i have an idea that last year Schwarz was mentoring him}

He's only 22 and has only played about that number of games. Unless we think that Watts will be a key forward next year,[i think it will be 2011] I believe Newtion is important to the club's prospects in 2010--I don't know thereafter

[titan_uranus 22,342]

I said most of this in the Votes thread, but Newton is an average VFL player who just isn't good enough at AFL level. He doesn't have any of the required talents to be a full forward. I see no chance of Newton 'making it'.

[Rogue 585]

IMO he's had enough shots at goal - if he'd kicked with a decent eff we'd be talking about him differently.

If he can fix his kicking issues I think he'll stay in the system beyond this year.

[rpfc 27,449]

--. This is a good post. Some say he's no good below his knees but in that area he's better than Neitz was.

I was at a dinner shortly after the match v Richmond, when DB spoke and pointed out that Newton ghad missed a couple of easy goals, he'd kicked one beauty on the run. Yet, after the match v Adelaide he was dropped-- too soon in my view.And at another function I attended Schwarz described him as having a 'big,hoofing kick.[i have an idea that last year Schwarz was mentoring him}

He's only 22 and has only played about that number of games. Unless we think that Watts will be a key forward next year,[i think it will be 2011] I believe Newtion is important to the club's prospects in 2010--I don't know thereafter

2010?

Are energies should be focussed on developing a flag-winning team - we are building for 2012 onwards.

If you don't see Newton as the answer beyond 2010, then what is the point?

He'd just get in the way of Watts' development.