Match Preview - Round 2 Collingwood v Melbourne by DaVe86

[DaVe86 0]

Hi guys, I am a Collingwood supporter and do a weekly match preview for a number of Collingwood boards.

My previews are fairly neutral, although it is catered for the Collingwood fan. I also post them to opposition supporter boards because they are usually beneficial and most opposition supporters take something out of them.

FWIW, i watch every game of footy every week so my opinions are based on what I've seen, not 2nd hand knowledge

Would love to hear feedback. The previews are quite long but i try to cover all bases. I love a good chat about the footy so look forward to generating some discussion out of this.

------------------

The build up to round 1 was huge, and both Collingwood and Melbourne would be disappointed to have lost their first round match.

For Melbourne, many would be pleased with their more competitive spirit and better attack on the ball. However, given their long pre-season and boasting that they are extremely fit, to be overrun in the 2nd half will be of concern. Still, with 4 debutants and a swag of youngsters, Melbourne have shown strong early signs of improvement, and they may not be the easy beats in 09.

Collingwood’s opening round was even more disappointing. The Pies were highly fancied to beat Adelaide comfortably at the G. Adelaide stole the game from Collingwood in the first quarter. Despite a solid comeback, and a corresponding 18 point lead in the 3rd, Collingwood faded and lost its run in the last quarter. A few nervous passages of play from the senior players also cost Collingwood dearly.

It is rare for these 2 sides to play so early in the year. It has been a long time since Collingwood played Melbourne on anything other than Queen’s Birthday holiday. For Collingwood, ‘Blockbuster fatigue’ is no excuse this year.

Collingwood has beaten Melbourne in the past 2 of its encounters, though both games were highly uninspiring or convincing victories. Prior to this, Melbourne had won 4 Queen’s Birthday clashes in a row.

No doubt that this is a rebuilding phase for Melbourne, and Collingwood should rightly go in as favourites. However, I never take a game against Melbourne lightly because the Demons have a tendency to lift against their Black and White foes.

When these sides last met, it was Collingwood who won 116-95. Lockyer surprisingly polled the 3 votes with 20 possessions and 2 goals, whilst Scott Burns was dominant 36 disposals, 6 tackles and 12 marks. He polled 2 votes. Adam Yze’s 25 possession and 2 goal game earnt him the 1 vote.

Brock Mclean also had one of his better matches with 36 disposals and Bruce was prominent with 27. Alan Didak won 22 disposals and snared 2 goals. Sylvia kicked 3 goals from 14 disposals playing up forward.

The Sides

No doubt the sides take a different look in 2009. Yze and Burns have retired, as has Jeff White who had 24 hitouts. Shane Wakelin has also retired, and Simon Prestigiacomo has reclaimed his defensive spot. Melbourne are highly likely to continue to play a lot of younger players, whilst the temptation will also be there for Collingwood to introduce Beams and Sidebottom into the team for their first games.

Melbourne debuted 4 players last week and all were reasonably impressive. Cheney was particularly impressive with 22 disposals and was given defensive tasks throughout. His form over pre-season was strong. He has shown to be a gutsy and hard worker, and although he might look a bit unfashionable out there, he will give 100%. Jake Spencer would have also pleased the coaching staff. Spencer was promoted onto the senior list in the pre-season after Jamar was put on the LTI. Spencer was very promising throughout the NAB cup and has already jumped ahead of Meesen in the pecking order.

Hamish McIntosh perhaps dominated both Johnson and Spencer in round 1 kicking 3 goals. However, for a debutant, Spencer was impressive with 9 hitouts and 8 possessions. He showed a willingness to link up with his midfielders and put himself in the right spots.

The 2 other debutants for Melbourne were 2 indigenous players in Bennell and Jetta. Each were given limited gametime. Jetta did quite well with 16 possessions and a goal and looks the more likely to retain his spot. Melbourne would also have been heartened to see Aaron Davey back looking reasonably fit, although his impact on the game was limited by a tight tag from Rawlings.

Collingwood would have been concerned with the form of some of its senior players. Didak and Davis were prominent but far from their dangerous best. Davis has apparently been suffering from illness leading up to Round 1. Hopefully we can see him return to his damaging best. The forward line never fired up. Cloke, Medhurst and Fraser were all quite uninfluential. Fraser in particular seemed to lack a bit of drive, whilst Medhurst is definitely lacking from a bit of match conditioning after an interrupted pre-season.

I think we’ll see around 3 changes from the Pies this week. What stood out to me against Adelaide is that Collingwood seemed top heavy down back. They played 6 talls. Melbourne are currently lacking a really tall forward line, so I think atleast 1 will have to be dropped. Given the fact Cox was 1 of the better players, I think it’s Goldsack who will have to make way. This should make room for Heath Shaw who missed round 1. It has been quite some time since Heath has played senior footy, so it will be great to see him return.

I also doubt Ben Reid has done enough to earn his spot. Malthouse used him in defence and forward, but he had little influence in either position. His spot will be taken by Anthony Rocca eventually. Rocca played a VFL practice match last week and booted 6 goals, but whether this is enough for him to return straight to the senior side I don’t know. If not, then Dawes may get his call up.

I then think 1 of Beams or Sidebottom will come into the side. Beams in particular has proven himself over the pre-season to be a ready-made AFL footballer. My preference for him would be to come in to replace Ben Johnson. However, Johnson did provide some dash, but I still think his disposal is off the boil.

I’d also love to make room for Ryan Cook who has displayed a greater sense of aggression and has sized up over the pre-season. I think there is room for him in a tagging role.

Bryan should hold his spot in the ruck despite an ordinary game against Adelaide. At this stage, Bryan’s bigger frame may be more imposing on young Spencer and he is less a chance to be outmuscled by Paul Johnson. Unfortunately for Cameron Wood, he may have to wait until he can prove himself in the VFL before earning his spot again.

Melbourne’s greatest hole seems to be the forward line. Without Neitz and Robertson, and with number 1 draft pick Jack Watts seemingly off the selection radar, the need for an influence up forward is pressing. Petterd was impressive as a lead-up forward considering the fact he had an injury ravaged 2008. Miller had little influence against the Kangaroos and will be required to step up to present a tall target. Paul Johnson is an imposing figure and will be used as a tall target between ruck stints as well.

Colin Sylvia was left out of the round 1 squad and will be close to selection. However the word is that his form in the VFL was not up to scratch and he may be left out again for disciplinary reasons. Woonameri is perhaps not quite ready yet as he recovers from injury, although Maric may come in to add some spark. The players to make way may include some of the debutants in Bennell and Jetta.

Despite the lack of key talls, Melbourne may actually look to exploit Collingwood’s lack of small defenders by playing a small forward line. The likes of Davey, Jetta, Sylvia, Petterd etc up forward will no doubt worry the Pies, especially if Malthouse is too stubborn to drop a tall defender.

But there is no doubt the major concern for Melbourne at the moment is contested marking. It was reported in the paper this week that Hamish McIntosh doubled the entire tally for Melbourne in terms of contested marks. He took 2. Incredibly, Melbourne was only able to clutch 1 contested mark in the whole game! Finding the right targets is going to be their major concern.

My Collingwood side:

B: Shaw, Prestigiacomo, Cox

HB: Toovey, Brown, O’Brien

C: Clarke, Swan, Maxwell

HF: Didak, Cloke, Thomas

F: Davis, Rocca, Anthony

R: Fraser, O’Bree, Pendlebury

I: Bryan, Lockyer, Beams, Medhurst

E: Cook, Stanley, Sidebottom

The Matchups

Melbourne’s greatest chance of victory lies in the midfield. If Collingwood gets first hands on the ball, they have the fire power to finish the game off. But Melbourne do have a few nuggetty midfielders who will cause some troubles for Collingwood.

I would like to see Collingwood tag Mclean. He had 36 disposals the last time these 2 clubs met. If Ryan Cook is rightly selected, then he is the prime candidate for the role. Otherwise O’Bree will most likely go head to head.

Toovey v Davey – OK, before you all laugh at me hear me out. There is no one else on our list with the footspeed or defensive capacity to run with Davey. Toovey has closing speed and is a fantastic tackler. Davey will spend large periods of time in the forward line. Many are very critical of Alan Toovey, and I think it is undeserved. But for him to cement his spot in the side, then he has to take a big scalp early in 2009.

The other option is Harry O’Brien. Harry did a fantastic job on guys like Steve Johnson and was good on Porplyzia last week. I just fear that Davey will spend too much time in the midfield and expose O’Brien in this area.

Fraser v Johnson – Paul Johnson has the muscle, Fraser the versatility. Josh’s game against Adelaide was below his usual output. I’m expecting a far greater return from Josh this week and he should dominate around the ground.

Bartram v Didak/Davis – Bartram got the tagging job on Brent Harvey last week and was fantastic. He restricted Boomer to 16 disposals, which is well down on his average. I think he’ll be given the responsibility on one of the Pies dangerous small forwards.

Warnock v Rocca/Anthony – The impressive young defender is most likely going to take whoever goes to Full Forward.

McDonald v Swan – James McDonald returned to some of his best last week with 23 disposals, 10 tackles and 6 marks. Swan also found some touch in the 2nd half. Both are hard nuts and I would love to see this matchup.

Pendlebury v Green

Maxwell v Bruce – Maxwell is playing as a midfielder now and is a good size matchup for Bruce. He is one of their more creative players, but is slightly out of form at the moment. Keeping Bruce quiet will go a long way to ensuring victory.

Lockyer v Buckley – Buckley provides a lot of run off half back, so I would like to see Lockyer in his defensive forward role keeping things tight.

Other than that, its quite hard to do the matchup’s against Melbourne. They are a young side and many players are still finding their footing and role within the team. That makes them a difficult team to plan for. It is hard to know what they will structure up like in the forward line.

This further exemplifies the need I feel to drop a tall defender. Prestigiacomo and Brown will simply take whoever lines up at Full Forward and Centre Half Forward. Harry O’Brien has the capacity to play small, whilst Maxwell will play in the midfield. Collingwood will then need to bring in a range of smaller guys like Shaw, Toovey and Clarke to do the job on the Melbourne small forwards. Shannon Cox did well in his rebounding role last week and will hold his spot.

The Wrap Up

Despite the glaring holes in the Demon side, they did play a good brand of football against the Kangaroos. They feel confident playing Collingwood and will be keen to put up a good showing in front of a large crowd. I hope a good crowd turns up. This is a Collingwood home game, but Melbourne fans need to come out and get behind their team early before it is too late.

I’ll tip Collingwood by 30 points, but I think we’ll see a close game for the majority of the match. Melbourne enjoy playing Collingwood. They feel they match up well and they often go in more hungry.

The midfield battle is the key for Melbourne. Collingwood won the clearances last week but lost the match. I don’t feel the same will happen this week. If Collingwood gets first hands on the ball then their forwards are far too dangerous. Melbourne on the other hand have a suspect forward line who struggles to take contested marks.

It will be interesting to see whether Melbourne employ zoning techniques or flood or go man on man. It is becoming increasingly obvious that Collingwood struggles against the zone. I think we will see more and more clubs use this strategy against the Magpies.

[tarzan16 40]

great preview. thanks very much. very informative

[Gorgoroth 13,023]

Actually one of the best previews I have read, very good ideas and match ups put forward.

It's always good to read a point of view from a opposing supporter who can look at the good and bad for both sides and come up with a unbiased thoughts on a game, I doubt i could.

I'd have Melbourne winning by 100pts and everyone collecting 40 possessions, where we played a long kicking down the guts style of play!

I too think we will match the pies but go down in similar fashion to the Roo's game.

[AzzKikA 2,371]

WOW a filth supporter that I can comprehend and that spells correctly, never thought i'd see the day!

Just mucking around Dave. Thanks for the preview, swaying a little to one side but thats understandable. Who do you think will match up on Jack Anthony?

[DaVe86 0]

WOW a filth supporter that I can comprehend and that spells correctly, never thought i'd see the day!

Just mucking around Dave. Thanks for the preview, swaying a little to one side but thats understandable. Who do you think will match up on Jack Anthony?

Hahah Azzkika...there are a couple of us out there that can spell!

Obviously is swayed towards Collingwood because I write it for Collingwood boards. I find however that most supporters have very little knowledge of the opposition so I try to take a good look at who we have to match up when writing these previews.

Anthony is an interesting matchup and will be for a lot of sides this year.

Rocca may come back this week. There will be a big debate as to whether we bring him through the VFL or straight in. I would like to see him straight back.

If Rocca comes back, you have to put your best defender on him. However it has been Anthony kicking the goals, and he looked pretty sharp against Adelaide.

If no Rocca, then Warnock will go to him...otherwise maybe Garland or Frawley.

[Guest hangon007]

Other than that, its quite hard to do the matchup’s against Melbourne. They are a young side and many players are still finding their footing and role within the team. That makes them a difficult team to plan for. It is hard to know what they will structure up like in the forward line.

These are the comments I found interesting. Nobody knows us ... hope we can use that to our advantage.

[jacey 333]

Nice preview.

James Frawley would be a nice match up on Jack Anthony. Warnock will take Rocca? and Warnock/Garland to Cloke.

Don't think Pies should play Rocca. He should be rusty and should unsettle your forward line but by all means Mick, play him.

[AzzKikA 2,371]

You certainly know your teams outside the Filth Dave. Mine and probably everyone else's thought exactually. I hate to admit it but i think Jack will tear us up on Sat.

[Guest JACKtheRIPPER]

nice preview, your colors make me sick in the stomach.

[Sir Why You Little 37,133]

I hope Rocca Does Play and we run him into the ground by the second Q. Unfit & over rated player that he is. Thanks for the Preview though Dave, although i think it will be a lot closer than 30 points. We do HATE the Filth. 6 Flags remember.

[Guest JACKtheRIPPER]

im sorry for rocking the boat fan, it wont happen again. :D

[Demonland 73,159]

Good grief. Last week I called for Demon fans to put together their thoughts on the forthcoming game and hardly got a response. Now, we get a preview from a Collingwood fan. We'll definitely use it and any other intelligent comments in our preview section later in the week.

[Guest JACKtheRIPPER]

agreed, i now its off the subject, butt i just saw R PRATT on the news and he looks like hes got 6mnths to live, he looked like a dead man walking.

[45HG 1,559]

Great write up mate, thanks for that!

What about Rivers for J.A.?

[DaVe86 0]

Great write up mate, thanks for that!

What about Rivers for J.A.?

distinct possibility. However, given Rivers has had such injury interrupted seasons, reckon he should settle into his 3rd man up role and add some security to the backline.

Don't know if he's ready yet to do the key defensive posts.

But i must admit I'm not sure how he travelled over pre-season and Jack Anthony is not a huge possession winner so Rivers could have a good game on him

[Roost It 1,434]

distinct possibility. However, given Rivers has had such injury interrupted seasons, reckon he should settle into his 3rd man up role and add some security to the backline.

Don't know if he's ready yet to do the key defensive posts.

But i must admit I'm not sure how he travelled over pre-season and Jack Anthony is not a huge possession winner so Rivers could have a good game on him

Warnock to Cloke. He took the honours last year quite comfortably.

Garland seems a good match for Anthony,

Frawley to have a go on Rocca if he plays, his pace could really exploit Rocca if he's not fully fit.

Rivers to Didak

Bartram to take Thomas

Cheney to Davis

[Jerry Lundergard 420]

Warnock to Cloke. He took the honours last year quite comfortably.

Garland seems a good match for Anthony,

Frawley to have a go on Rocca if he plays, his pace could really exploit Rocca if he's not fully fit.

Rivers to Didak

Bartram to take Thomas

Cheney to Davis

I'd have to agree that i think Garland could definitely do a job on Anthony. He has great closing speed and ability to spoil from behind when JA makes those strong, quick leads.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Why don't more of the intelligent/educated pies supporters come out from behind their toothless counterparts? That was quite a read. Well done.

[Nasher 33,617]

Thanks for making an effort to actually know something about our side. That puts you ahead of 95% of footy journos (and 99.99% of opposition supporters) out there. It was a good read.

[agent 99 71]

Great read,plenty there to think about.

good to have an outside opinion.

Now I just need to think of a way to get out of work and get home too melbourne from W.A. early.......

I HATE W.A. WHEN I MISS MATCHES LIKE THIS. :angry:

[Doggo 32]

That's a great read. Heaps better than the fluff you get from the AFL website. Thanks dave86.

[Doggo 32]

It's late. I've just finished doing an assignment for uni due tomorrow and my brain is still in manic hyper-overload! No chance of getting any sleep right now so i've been inspired to have a stab at picking some teams and matchups for this weekend. So here goes.......

My teams and matchups for Round 2:

B: GARLAND WARNOCK RIVERS

F: Anthony Rocca Medhurst

HB: CHENEY FRAWLEY BARTRAM

HF: Didak Cloke Davis

C: BUCKLEY MOLONEY BRUCE

C: Thomas O'Bree Lockyer

HF: GREEN MILLER DAVEY

HB: Maxwell Brown Toovey

F: PETTERD BATE JETTA

B: Shaw O'Brien Clarke

FOL: JOHNSON McLEAN McDONALD

FOL: Fraser Swan Pendlebury

INT: SPENCER, JONES, MORTON, BENNELL

INT: Bryan, Johnson, Cox, Beams

COL- IN: Rocca, Shaw, Beams

OUT: Reid, Goldsack, Prestigiacomo

MEL- Unchanged

There's been a lot of talk on 'Land about changes for next week but having thought about it over the last day or so, i actually think Dean Bailey & co. will go with an unchanged lineup against Collingwood, barring any injury concerns. Sylvia may get lucky and possibly push Jamie Bennell out of the side, but Bennell hardly put a foot wrong in his debut. Not in his favour is the fact the 'Pies don't have the same plethora of slight, speedy small forwards as the 'Roos do, and Bennell may just get dropped due to lack of matchup (as well as needing to hit the gym), not to mention our obvious need for more marking targets in the forward line. Sylvia or Stefan Martin may be called upon in that instance, although Martin should probably spend some time learning to play forward at Casey before being tried in that position at AFL level. Newton may also be an outside chance, although his form has been patchy at best.

FORWARD

Looking over the two teams, one of the first things i notice is that Prestigiacomo doesn't have an immediate match up. For this reason I believe he may be dropped, purely on a 'horses for courses' basis. Maxwell might have been playing midfield so far this year, but he is a very accomplished backman and, IMO, he's a perfect matchup for any one of Melbourne's mid-sized marking forwards in Green, Petterd or Bate. Presti' would probably only be a suitable matchup for Miller playing deep, or possibly Bate, but is at risk of being led far out of his defensive 50 and exposed for agility further up the ground. Paul Johnson is the other match-up that would suit him, but expect PJ to spend more time in the ruck and less forward, as he did against the Roos. Unless Newton plays (which is highly unlikely), there is no-one for Prestigiacomo to play on.

Despite Bate's shocker last week at FF, he should be given the next few weeks to settle into FF before a change is made. He has, after all, been training for that position all preseason. Miller will be used in his lead-up CHF role and Nathan Brown seems the logical matchup for him at CHB. I think Maxwell will start on one of Green or Petterd. We've all seen what Green is capable of as a forward and Petterd showed last week he looks very natural and comfortable up front, as well as being a deceptively strong mark for his size. Reminded me a lot of an early Russell Robertson-- the wobbly tumble punt set shot, then the magnificent checkside goal on the run, the big leap, courage and complete disregard for his own safety in marking contests-- just screamed young Robbo to me! Shaw is the likely matchup for the other of these two.

I've gone with dave86's suggestion that Toovey start on Davey, and picked Marty Clarke to try and rebound off Jetta.

As has been the case for the last two years, Melbourne will struggle in the forward line due to a lack of strong key targets. Unless one (or all) of Bate, Miller, Green or Petterd can present strongly and score multiple goals, Melbourne might be competitive around the ground but will struggle to kick a winning score. Aaron Davey is another who desperately needs to be applying more scoreboard pressure.

MIDFIELD

In the midfield McLean and Swan to go head to head, as will O'Bree and Moloney. I doubt there will be any really hard tags put on, especially not by the 'Pies who will be thinking 'all-out attack'. However, if Swan or Pendlebury start firing expect Bartram (or McDonald) to man either up, with Cheney to swap over to Davis and Bruce to Didak down back. Johnson will want to make amends for his poor efforts on McIntosh last week, despite his improved ruck work. More will be needed of him around the ground against Fraser, although expect him to win his fair share of ruck contests. McIntosh is probably the more accomplished tap ruckman out of him and Frasier and PJ more than broke even in ruck contests last week (although was particularly poor accountability wise). He will need to be wary of Frasier running forward of the ball to provide another marking option up forward. Spencer and Johnson should both have the measure of Chris Bryan when Fraser is off the ground or resting up forward.

Despite breaking even in the clearances and contested ball, Melbourne's midfield looked pedestrian at times against the Roo's. Buckley, Davey and Morton all need to step up from last week, as their run and carry will be a very important factor if Melbourne are to challenge.

BACKLINE

In the backline Garland should get first crack at Anthony, Warnock to go to Rocca and Frawley to Cloke. Each of those key matchups seems the most logical physically and in terms of style of play. Garland will have the speed and reach to go with the strong-leading Anthony, Warnock the strength to compete one-on-one with Rocca, and Frawley the athleticism and overhead ability to man Cloke as a high forward. Rivers will play his customary 'quarterback' role helping out the other talls, most likely lining up on Medhurst and zoning off where possible. I'd give Cheney first crack at playing on Didak, with Bruce and Garland as Plan B & C should Cheney fail, as Didak is capable of really causing us some damage both at ground level and in the air. I like Bartram to do a hard-tag on the lively Leon Davis as he did on Harvey last week in defence and up the ground.

The backline were great against the 'Roos and expect them to give their all again. The 'Pies have some dangerous small-mid forwards who are good marks for their size, in Medhurst, Davis and Didak, as well as Thomas who spends some time in there. All will need to be played very tightly. Bennell may be called upon to man a Davis or Didak, although i fear his lack of body strength may be easily exposed against stronger opponents than North's mosquito fleet.

Melbourne's disciplined young defensive group is coming along in leaps and bounds and if the midfield give a good account of themselves, the key posts should be solid enough to be able to keep the Demons competitive.

RESULT

I love my Demons as much as anyone here on Demonland, and nothing is more pleasing than to see them bury the Magpies as rank-outsiders. But the reality of the situation is Collingwood are a side who should be legitimately pushing for a top 4 position come September, whereas the Dee's will most likely be occupying a place towards the bottom of the table. Without strong marking targets up forward, I fail to see how Melbourne will be able to kick a winning score. Much like last week, the Dee's will be competitive for the majority of the game, but in the end will lack to firepower to put the Pies away as our young kids run out of steam.

As much as i hate to say it, Collingwood by 25 points.

EDIT: This took me an hour to write. Now i'm really tired! Time for bed...

[AzzKikA 2,371]

Nice write up Doggo, pretty much agree with everything. Unfortunately the score too.

[DaVe86 0]

Fantastic post Doggo.

Dropping Presti has been raised a number of times by Collingwood supporters. I hope we don't do it.

I still think Presti should stand at Full Back and take whoever stands there. Whether it be Miller or Johnson or Martin etc.

If Rocca is not back, I wouldn't even mind us switching Nathan Brown up forward to provide a target. We did this with effect against Carlton last year where he kicked 2 early goals. That would allow us to bring another runner into the side.

Although Melbourne lacks key talls, Collingwood was exploited last week for been too tall. We had no run.

I think Reid will be dropped. But instead of replacing him with another tall, we may look to bring in a small and swing Brown up forward if there is no suitable matchup down back.

Think your matchups look great. Agree Maxwell will take either Green or Bruce.

[H_T 3,049]

Fantastic post Doggo.

Dropping Presti has been raised a number of times by Collingwood supporters. I hope we don't do it.

I still think Presti should stand at Full Back and take whoever stands there. Whether it be Miller or Johnson or Martin etc.

If Rocca is not back, I wouldn't even mind us switching Nathan Brown up forward to provide a target. We did this with effect against Carlton last year where he kicked 2 early goals. That would allow us to bring another runner into the side.

Although Melbourne lacks key talls, Collingwood was exploited last week for been too tall. We had no run.

I think Reid will be dropped. But instead of replacing him with another tall, we may look to bring in a small and swing Brown up forward if there is no suitable matchup down back.

Think your matchups look great. Agree Maxwell will take either Green or Bruce.

I think Presti will be named and will play depending upon if Melbourne make changes or not. If there is no change to Melbourne's line up, someone may come in for Presti from the emergencies.