BOUND FOR SOMEWHERE ELSE - a Demonland Feature

[mauriesy 7,352]

I see the first benefit rock concert to save North Melbourne is already being put in place as we speak.

[Nasher 33,617]

Look, I get the impression that I am obviously the only one around here who thinks that Sydney can't handle two teams at present...

Not at all. I for one think you present a very strong argument.

The problem is though, that from afar many of us in the southern half of the country probably can't really come to terms with how deeply rooted league's hold on Sydney really is.

Your example of a second team to the Storm in Melbourne is a great one. There's no way Melbourne could support a second team in that sport. Melbourne is AFL mad. The converse applies in Sydney.

The Swans have been in Sydney for nearly 25 years, and only recently have they really been able to stand on their own two feet, but even then it's wobbly. Paul Roos has said ad nauseum that his side can't afford to bottom out because it would be disasterous for the club off the field. It has the potential to do all their hard work. I think the AFL is making all the right steps in promoting the game in Sydney, but the market penetration for League is too deep. With time, AFL support might deepen given all the AFL's legwork to date, but it has an awfully long way to go.

A good discussion overall.

[occo 2]

i feel really sorry for the kangas. They are basically being pushed around and intimidated to leave. Clubs like collingwood, carlton, essendon, richmond, st kilda, geelong will remain as melb based teams till...well forever. I think melbourne are in a difficult position. the afl can cut our funding like they have threatend to do so with the kangs. There is one possitive on our side. the building of the new stadium which will act as a home base.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Not at all. I for one think you present a very strong argument.

The problem is though, that from afar many of us in the southern half of the country probably can't really come to terms with how deeply rooted league's hold on Sydney really is.

Your example of a second team to the Storm in Melbourne is a great one. There's no way Melbourne could support a second team in that sport. Melbourne is AFL mad. The converse applies in Sydney.

The Swans have been in Sydney for nearly 25 years, and only recently have they really been able to stand on their own two feet, but even then it's wobbly. Paul Roos has said ad nauseum that his side can't afford to bottom out because it would be disasterous for the club off the field. It has the potential to do all their hard work. I think the AFL is making all the right steps in promoting the game in Sydney, but the market penetration for League is too deep. With time, AFL support might deepen given all the AFL's legwork to date, but it has an awfully long way to go.

A good discussion overall.

There is no doubt Sydney is rooted towards RL. However the penetration of Aussie Rules is greater in Melb than the penetration of RL in Sydney. NSW/Qld effectively carries ARU as well as the competition from the world round ball game. They also have the Sydney Swans.

In Melbourne, the Storm is a News Corp heavily funded interstate club with average attendance of 11,500 per game. The average crowd for an AFL game is approx. 36,000. Melb Storm is a splinter mark in a city that clearly has not embraced the Storm any more than a passing distraction. IMO the Storm has no real traction in Melbourne and is still a News funded charity and will be ad infinitum. Its a top performing RL club.....for Melburnians...so what.

The average crowd to an RL game in Sydney in 2007 (despite growing attendances) is only 15,750. The average crowd to a Swans game in Sydney is 19,701. Sydney is far more establish there than the Storm is here. I would not expect a 2nd team to be easily embraced by Sydney and see it as a 10 year plan to get acceptance.

But if the AFL dont aggressively pursue the biggest market in Australia which is not yet totally dominated by another sport yet then it is nuts. Longer term the AFL is at great risk to other sports with only one AFL team. The World game is still to really rise in this country at some point and its impact could be far greater than it is now.

The AFL needs to move to strengthen the beach head in the northern States and be ready to commit capital to the Gold Coast and Sydney rather than propping up Clubs with a legacy of history that are proven that they cant financially stand alone or build a a well supported brand.

[beelzebub 23,382]

Very good perspective there Rhino. I must admit ai do have a bit of an internal chuckle when i see those little namby pamby stadia in NSW often half filled with what is to us a paltry attendance. ....and thats good for them !! lol.

Both leagues AFL and NFl are propped p by money...media money. The difference i would suggest is that there is far more direct invlovement into NRL by the funder. The AFL to this observer seems more consolidated and its own entity, just an opinion.

The face of this nation is changing.. many of our so called "traditional " roots are no more relevant than a 4n 20....i.e...it aint what it used to be ( aussie for a start..lol ). Demographics are movng etc.

Just as an observation there is a fair following of NRL that is Kiwi and Islander based...whenether it be first or 3rd generation... Many new spectators to sport dont have these past allegiancies ...they simply want to be entertained..and maybe a feel good warm and fuzzy by winning.

Quite simply if Melbourne had a team representing in MahJong we'd probably barrack for them... ( do we?? lol )

If Sydney feels wobbly then I still fervently beleive a second team will bolster ( not detract ) their position. It says to many this game is fair dinkum..not just a bunch of blow ins etc. from the AFL's point there must be economies of scale in development and poromotion.. Also leverage with media. This I have no dount is some of the thinkig also in a GC team establishing.

Put it this way....would you rather stand on one leg or two ??

[Demons 32 235]

The World game is still to really rise in this country at some point and its impact could be far greater than it is now.

You would have to see it as a huge threat now wouldn't you?

I believe the A-League is definately starting to surpass Rugby (both codes)

It is a nation wide league. All you have to do is look at attendances to realise as well.

The crowds show up in the same numbers as the Rugby teams in NSW.

Around 15,000-20,000.

In Melbourne, the Victory attract a guaranteed 30,000+.

With over 40,000 for big games involving Adelaide United and Sydney FC.

However this is also the reason why a team like the Kangaroos are in so much trouble.

The fact is, Melbourne Victorys attendance is higher than ours, dogs, kangas (with no other Melbourne clubs filling the holes. Of 30,000 there, guaranteed 25,000 are Victory supporters.

They have taken off and become far more exciting and popular than the Storm have ever been. The fact they had more members in their 3rd year than the Kangaroos have is the perfect showing of why the Kangaroos must leave Victoria.

[beelzebub 23,382]

when the A league is still around in its same form in 20 years...then I might get concerned.. Until then.. its justa continual morphing from one idea to another. Are there really any more peopel attending the premier level of soccer this year than say 1o years ago ??. the teams have changed a bit.. the venues a bit better.. but i seriously doubt, despite al the hooopla that soccder is any more entrenched today at all. Its justa bit better presented and marketed.

I havent noticed large scale defection to the code ...have you

[Diablo 1]

The AFL will be PRAYING that the FFA don't win the right to host the 2018 World Cup. It's a decade away yet, but if it happens, expect the other codes to suffer immensely, especially if Australia qualify and do remotely well.

[beelzebub 23,382]

rubbish...it will be a pasing infatuation.. was there a mass exodus to rugby ??

Aussies and Melbournians esp wil get behing whatever it is for the duration...then its Flinders St all return to normal viewing.

they've been hyping Soccer since I dont know when.. and its only got them a marginal progression.

[Kit Walker 225]

You would have to see it as a huge threat now wouldn't you?

I believe the A-League is definately starting to surpass Rugby (both codes)

It is a nation wide league. All you have to do is look at attendances to realise as well.

I'm a very big fan of soccer and follow the Victory but to say it's overtaking the major football codes as a spectator sport is too long a bow to draw.

Victory is averaging about 25 000 a game for home games, slightly more against major drawcards like Sydney, a bit less against Wellington. Perth is a problem as they can't get home crowds of 10 000, and the rest make do around the 15 000 mark. These are the crowds they can draw when NOT going head to head with AFL/Rugby. Basically the only time Melbourne would get a crowd that low is if not playing well and playing against a low drawing opponent (NM or interstate club).

As I understand it, the non-footy season fixture was very deliberate because they would get smashed, both in terms of crowds and in media coverage.

The other problem soccer has, is that unlike the AFL, RL and Union, you will never have the best players in the world play here. You won't even get the best Australians.

[Diablo 1]

rubbish...it will be a pasing infatuation.. was there a mass exodus to rugby ??

Aussies and Melbournians esp wil get behing whatever it is for the duration...then its Flinders St all return to normal viewing.

they've been hyping Soccer since I dont know when.. and its only got them a marginal progression.

Soccer is a sleeping giant, though. Rugby has a decent following, but it is not a sport that has anywhere near the underlying support that Soccer does. It (soccer) is probably the most popular sport at school level (I know it was a couple of years ago when I was at school; we fielded about 4 open soccer teams and 1 footy team), because it is not very physical, and the basic skills are easy to develop. There was never any real danger of Rugby taking off after the World Cup in 2003; it was not that popular to begin with. Soccer, on the other hand, is extremely popular with younger people, and if it is not their favourite sport, then it is almost always their second favourite, especially in Victoria.

[beelzebub 23,382]

for starters...Im not anti round ball... Im just observing what has happened over many years.

There is a reasoanbly good saturation of soccer at junior levels, has been for quite a while..say last 25 years. Does this translate into wholesale anihalation of other codes.. Strangely not.. You ( I'd ) actually expect more of an impact. It just never seems to come.

I know a lot of mums etc prefer socer because they think its 'safer' than league or footy. But even this doesnt end up translating into numbers later in life.

I would expect soccer to continue to grow about 10-15 % in real terms and then peak..and plateau.

As someone has pointed out...no sooner does anyone get good than they pop off overseas.. . the A league is a brave attempt to rederess this but its still embryonic.. and still very much an experiment in the happening.

Ths is not to say teh AFL can be complacent. Indeed much of the thinking in moving teams around is to shore up the code and continue its healthy presence

Soccer will grow.. better establish itself. but its never going to be a serious threat to AFL.. As unbiased as I can say this it might be more of a threat to the Rugby codes.

now.... where do I put my money down on the Gold Coast Kangas ???

[TonyMelb 7]

Look, I get the impression that I am obviously the only one around here who thinks that Sydney can't handle two teams at present, but I am the one who lives here and as such probably have a slightly better handle on what this city will or could handle. Or at least better than those who don't live here.

Do I think that the media will shun a second team? No, of course not, but after the initial blitz I think that it will fall back into the same level of exposure we have now. It could even split the time now given to the Swans, which is the only AFL news (other than any Cousins related drama) we really get on a regular basis.

League, whether you like it or not, is still the dominant force up here and while a second team could conceivably gain some exposure it is a massive thing to do and shouldn't be done just to trump league on their own home turf, because despite the will (and there will be a way eventually) it just isn't' that simple.

Having more to report on doesn't mean we will get more AFL on our screens, it won't automatically increase the level of media exposure we get, which is a whole other argument entirely and one that will not be solved until the broadcasters put the code first and ratings second. In other words, when hell freezes over.

And if the AFL were serious about selling their code to doubting Sydney-siders there are easier and less intrusive and over-wrought ways to gain exposure in the current and immediate market than to shove a Melbourne-based side into Western Sydney. Besides exposure isn't the only issue, it is just the one I could think of.

Sydneysiders ar not typical Aussie sports fans - the Rugby League crowds have traditionally been much smaller than usual weekend crowds elsewhere in the country. The clubs were build up financially on the back of RSL clubs and pokies revenues..When I lived in Sydney in the mid 1980's average crowds were 8,000 to 15,000 for clubs like Balmain or the rabbitohs which were the traditional inner suburban teams with long and strong history. The inner clubs have fallen away since for same reasons as Nth Melb and Bulldogs have - the demographics on inner suburban populations have changed.

Participating membership and crowd attendances has always been a negative in Sydney & is why SFC struggles unless in finals and is also why the AFL and other codes have tried developing teams elsewhere such as Canberra and north coast. Even the Canberra raiders who were very successful some years ago have struggled. Canberra is showing similar traits and lack of success of both Nth Melb and Sydney FC to cultivate any supporter base there is indicative. Their failure is not because its AFL (noting that a bloke who wore no25 and took the odd specky in 1970 era came from there) but because they are not inclined to sign up sporting memberships generally ( maybe cos there are a lot of fencesitters who sway with political winds in ACT???).

So Qld is different scenario. However the issue is one of timing and when a 2nd team can be supported given growth of overall support over time. Thats is why the comment of 1 team every 10 years aimed to be moved is about right.

[Diablo 1]

for starters...Im not anti round ball... Im just observing what has happened over many years.

There is a reasoanbly good saturation of soccer at junior levels, has been for quite a while..say last 25 years. Does this translate into wholesale anihalation of other codes.. Strangely not.. You ( I'd ) actually expect more of an impact. It just never seems to come.

I know a lot of mums etc prefer socer because they think its 'safer' than league or footy. But even this doesnt end up translating into numbers later in life.

I would expect soccer to continue to grow about 10-15 % in real terms and then peak..and plateau.

As someone has pointed out...no sooner does anyone get good than they pop off overseas.. . the A league is a brave attempt to rederess this but its still embryonic.. and still very much an experiment in the happening.

Ths is not to say teh AFL can be complacent. Indeed much of the thinking in moving teams around is to shore up the code and continue its healthy presence

Soccer will grow.. better establish itself. but its never going to be a serious threat to AFL.. As unbiased as I can say this it might be more of a threat to the Rugby codes.

now.... where do I put my money down on the Gold Coast Kangas ???

I think thats a pretty good 'riposte', if you like; I agree with most of that. I still think it is more of a threat than you give it credit for. Let's face it, Australia has hardly been a success at soccer over the past 2-3 decades, so there has never really been much a catalyst to really fire the game to a new level. The World Cup last year had absolutely massive support here, and there can be little doubt that that support leads to more widespread popularity at all levels; particularly those that are accessible to bandwagon jumpers. If a World Cup were held in Australia, and Australia were even moderately competitive in the tournament, you could expect double, probably triple, and possibly quadruple the support, as well as the severe deflection of attention away from the AFL in it's 2018 season.

I have no doubt, Belzebub, that AFL will be the number 1 sport here indefinitely. But Soccer represents a far greater threat than a 10-15% popularity. It only needs something to ignite it. Currently the game is going through a rebirth here with the A-league, but with a catalyst the flow of good-players through the league will pick up, and with better players comes increased popularity and penetration at the professional level, which would start to significantly divide the AFL's pie.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

The AFL will be PRAYING that the FFA don't win the right to host the 2018 World Cup. It's a decade away yet, but if it happens, expect the other codes to suffer immensely, especially if Australia qualify and do remotely well.

The FFA wont win the right to host the 2018 World Cup unless they play the games at 2am in the morning. There is no way a 3rd rate nation in a crap zone for TV will be given the rights.

However, soccer is not an infatuation. It has a strong following here and in my opinion poses more of a serious threat to AFL than RL which I think is a provincial fat necks sport that has got nowhere to go but disappear out of News Limited's backside.

The AFL should always be on its guard. Its a one country code and will always suffer from that.

[Diablo 1]

The FFA wont win the right to host the 2018 World Cup unless they play the games at 2am in the morning. There is no way a 3rd rate nation in a crap zone for TV will be given the rights.

The TV zone is poor, I admit, for broadcasting into Europe at least. But what about South Africa? Surely if they were actually given the 2010 world cup then Australia are in with a chance. South Africa are even worse at soccer than we are, and not the safest of countries, for the massive tourist influx, to boot. In any case, I think it's important that the AFL have some form of contingency strategy ready to go in case the FFA get the chocolates.

[Nasher 33,617]

The FFA wont win the right to host the 2018 World Cup unless they play the games at 2am in the morning. There is no way a 3rd rate nation in a crap zone for TV will be given the rights.

And the WC would be held in our winter, yes? In which case, good luck getting access to stadiums fit for that grade of competition. I can't see the other codes jumping out of the way to make their stadiums available.

[rpfc 28,734]

There isn't a market for 'second' teams in Sydney or Melbourne. The AFL will be putting a club in the west of Sydney and funding it entirely for decades.

The notion that the NRL has a weaker hold on Sydney isn't a theory supported by most of people in that city. To them there is only one footy. Attendances can be misleading. Remember NRL saturates that City, moreso than AFL and Melbourne.

There are 9 clubs in Sydney, and Newcastle and the Dragons very close by. Move toward the ACT and there is Canberra. And TV ratings are still good for NRL.

The AFL needs 16 teams and Melbourne needs to carry alot of those teams. 2 teams in SA, WA, Qld (Lions & GC), and Sydney (Swans & West Sydney) would be exhausting those markets. You can't just say move more out of Melbourne because they would have no place to go, no markets to tap.

You may suggest Sydney (being a large city) should house more than 2 clubs but if there is no-one willing to watch them then the point is moot, Melbourne will support 7 clubs. The AFL needs to keep 16 in the competition for commercial reasons and will support the remaining clubs indefinitely.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

The AFL needs to keep 16 licences in place for commercial reasons and for exactly commercial reasons will not have just under half of them housed in one state. And only two of the seven AFL clubs are stand alone profitable. It beggars commercial sense.

In Sydney they support RL , RU and to a lesser extent AFL and soccer. Its is far from a one horse town. RL is pumped hard into Sydney because News needs to get a return on the disasterous investment in funding it years ago. Attendances, TV ratings are a very good measure of interest in a sport. RL struggles while the AFL is achieving credible numbers with just one club.

If AFL is too survive as the premier sporting competition it must increase its foothold in NSW. It knows that it cannot turn its back on further opportunities there.

Any move by a side from Victoria to NSW will only happen after significant investigation by the AFL and the commitment to that 2nd NSW club similar to what Sydney has got.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

The TV zone is poor, I admit, for broadcasting into Europe at least. But what about South Africa? Surely if they were actually given the 2010 world cup then Australia are in with a chance. South Africa are even worse at soccer than we are, and not the safest of countries, for the massive tourist influx, to boot. In any case, I think it's important that the AFL have some form of contingency strategy ready to go in case the FFA get the chocolates.

TV time is poor for both the US/South America and Europe. Australia is a small market with limited upside for soccer.

South Africa is:

1. Tapped into the Euro time zone

2. A growing market for soccer with huge upside.

You are dreaming if you think we are in with a show for 2018.

[Diablo 1]

You are dreaming if you think we are in with a show for 2018.

I'm pretty sure most people would have said the same thing about South Africa a few years back. I don't think we are in with a major chance by any stretch, but it is not outside the realms of possibility.

[Kit Walker 225]

TV time is poor for both the US/South America and Europe. Australia is a small market with limited upside for soccer.

South Africa is:

1. Tapped into the Euro time zone

2. A growing market for soccer with huge upside.

You are dreaming if you think we are in with a show for 2018.

Ever the optimist......

Australian TV times are poor for Europe but excellent for the fast developing (and extremely lucrative) Asian market of China, Japan, South Korea and SE Asia generally. Also, midday/early afternoon games fit right into the US west coast's primetime - the west coast having a large number of soccer fans due to the large Mexican population in southern California.

2018 may be too early but it's by no means a hopeless case.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Ever the optimist......

Australian TV times are poor for Europe but excellent for the fast developing (and extremely lucrative) Asian market of China, Japan, South Korea and SE Asia generally. Also, midday/early afternoon games fit right into the US west coast's primetime - the west coast having a large number of soccer fans due to the large Mexican population in southern California.

2018 may be too early but it's by no means a hopeless case.

Asian would tune in just as readily if it was in Europe.

The West coast of the USA is small beer. Its the East coast that takes in Argentina and Brazil that will bring in the bucks.

Its not impossible but not an attractive financial option.

I'm pretty sure most people would have said the same thing about South Africa a few years back. I don't think we are in with a major chance by any stretch, but it is not outside the realms of possibility.

No not at all.

The rise of Cameroon 15 years in World soccer followed by Nigeria heralded the dawning of Africa's acceptance of the world game. With 680 million people on that continent FIFA were itching to do it.

Its a possibility but a long one.

Lets get back to the plight of the Roos!

[beelzebub 23,382]

You have to wonder if Laidley hasnt smelt a rat all along !!! I reckon he knows the Roos are blowing chunks and scratching to keep their word on anything.

This is a team haemoraging badly whilst the directors play violins !!

[Whispering_Jack 30,579]

I was at the same school as the Kangaroos major shareholder Peter de Rauch. His father was the PE teacher and he was as tough and as hard a bastard as they come. We were subjected to such torture in our first PE class that every muscle in my body aches even today when I merely think about it. If the son is as tough as his old man I reckon he will make a good fist of staring down the AFL powerbrokers but I reckon he might be fighting a losing battle.