Season 2024 Over for Clayton Oliver

[FreedFromDesire 563]

3 hours ago, binman said:

How did you arrive at our sixth best rated mid on Wheelo's ratings?

@WheeloRatings's app is terrific. One reason why is the way you can sort the data

As i have noted previously, the Champion data player rating is the best measure of players as it measures the impact of every involvement a player has in a game and as is the most obbjective measure.

I'm not counting Max as a mid, nor Rivers, who didn't play enough games as a mid to be fairly compared - but even if I did include him clarry still shaded him imo.

And didn't include tracc because he only paid 13 games. If I did, obviously he's our best mid this season.

I'll acknowledge unquestionably our best mid is a stretch, but i maintain he was our best mid over the whole season.

IMO he just shaded jack viney who dropped away alarmingly in the second half of the season (and thanks to clarry escaped much scrutiny). 

This is the player ratings for the last 20 games they've played, which is why Gus is listed.

Clarry and Jack have both played 21 games this season, and it's worth noting clarry played a defensive mid role for much of the season (relevant for his disposal numbers).

Jack just shaded clarry for player ratings and clearances, but clarry bested jack for disposals, centre clearances and contested possessions - all important kpis for mids.

Leaving aside the discussion on midfield, the table makes for interesting reading.

Leaving gus and tracc aside, clarry is our sixth highest rated player in his last 20 games. Meaning he is ahead of fan favorites like may, Lever, mcvee, langers and Windsor.

Hence my comment that I'd bet dollars to donuts he'll be top 10 in the bluey.

If you are a regular demonland reader you'd think a top 10 in the bluey would be impossible given the assessment by most posters of his form this season.

It seems clear doesn't it? (Image below) Gawn, Petracca, Viney, (I didn't include Pickett), ANB, And yes, Rivers, all ahead of Clarry.

I'll raise a couple of points with you regarding how you've chosen to define it:

Your statement about Oliver was "And unquestionably still be our best midfielder this year." My apologies if I've got the wrong context on that, but even by your own differing ratings that is not correct.

Now, given you've said "this year" I'm not sure why you'd use:

a) AFL ratings which I believe are a rolling 2 year period (it could be 18 months, but either way, not simply this year)

b) A previous 20 game metric that includes Brayshaw, who didn't even play this year.

Wheelo's ratings are for this year only. So that to me is the best player rating system to go by. 

Yes, you could argue Rivers shouldn't be counted as a mid - So for arguments sake then, let's combine Rivers and Pickett as 1 midfielder, as that would be pretty balanced given their time spent there. That still puts Oliver a fair few rungs down, and certainly nowhere near our best mid for this year.

Secondly, in terms of ratings, midfielders will always lead the way given the way these things are statistically based, so comparing a midfielders ratings to that of a key defender, half back or wingman is a little unfair. Also, to go back to your statement "And unquestionably still be our best midfielder this year."

Using simply clearances, contested possessions and disposals to judge Clarry as our best mid this year is not a very in-depth look at things from someone who I've read on here for a long time and very much appreciated the depth you go to in your looks at footy. I think perhaps in your defence of Oliver, which I'm with you on albeit in a different approach, you're reaching for things to protect him. I can understand that.

"Top 10 in the Bluey" seems a long way from "unquestionably still be our best midfielder this year." Especially in a year with so many injuries. Let's keep in mind, Oliver has featured in the coaches votes only once this season - he scored 9 in round 1. He hasn't been in the votes since. Viney has been in numerous times, and Rivers has been in multiple times since going into the midfield. I rate the coaches award very highly, and that would plainly tell you what they think of where Oliver sits in our midfield ratings.

We're probably splitting hairs somewhat, I agree with you much of the criticism has been overboard, but my view on that is that is due to the context of this season, not his actual performance. By every measure of this season, he has a long way down on what we would expect from him in a normal year with the right preparation and less impact from injury.

Edited August 17 by FreedFromDesire

[binman 41,906]

1 hour ago, Gator said:

Oliver is being paid a fortune to be what is currently the shell of his former self.

There are mitigating circumstances.  For this year, at least.

He's supposed to be in his absolute prime years.  An important point not to overlook.

Either get him fit, or believe that he's fully committed and able to do so, or trade him for a very good pick in what's an excellent draft.

I agree Gator.

I think the evidence this season is he has been been fully committed. Tried his guts out every week.

But he was never going to get anwhere near his optimal condition given his off season.

Get his surgery done and he can attack the preseason.

I'm working on the assumption that if the club doesn't trade him the club believes that is what will happen.

But we have a big chunk of our salary cap tied up in clarry, which apart from getting value from that investment, it makes it more difficult to bring in a gun on a big contract (it doesn't seem to have impacted our ability to resign a bunch of key players).

So, he needs to get back to his best next season.

Edited August 17 by binman

[FreedFromDesire 563]

2 minutes ago, binman said:

I agree Gator.

I think the evidence this season is there's no question has been he has been fully committed.

But he was never going to get anwhere near his optimal condition given his off season.

Get his surgery done and he can attack the preseason. I'm working on the assumption that if the club don't doesn't trade him the club believes that is what will happen.

But we have a big chunk of our salary cap tied up in clarry, which apart from getting value from that investment, it makes it more difficult to bring in a gun on a big contract (it doesn't seem to have impacted our ability to resign a bunch of key players).

So, he needs to get back to his best next season.

I can't remember exactly what stat it was, so my apologies if I butcher it, but I do recall a week or two ago reading somewhere that Oliver was leading us for one of the repeat pressure style metrics - Honestly don't remember the exact stat, but it backs up your assertion there that he has been committed, but just physically hasn't been able to do the things we would normal expect would be his minimum.

[binman 41,906]

37 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

You know this is part of the problem, right?

Yes, but only in the sense that we lost losing one of best four mids in gus before a ball was bounced, lost another best four mid (and arguably the best mid in the AFL - and def top 5) in tracc and had viney, who rounds out our best 4 mids, clearly struggling with his shoulder for big chunks of the season.

So, two of our best four mids not available and the other two carrying injuries.

In terms of our midfield strength, I had expected sparrow to go up a level, but he appears to have plataued. I think kolt will go into the middle sooner rather than later as he looks a natural inside mid.

And I haven't given up on laurie.

We need to replace gus, but otherwise, IMO, we have other drafting and trading priorities, namely elite kicks who can run and carry (eg players we have been linked with like cummings and houston) and a legitimate forward ruck to give maxy a chop out.

Edited August 17 by binman

[dimmy 1,278]

General Question :

Do we get any allowance for Gus or do we just go into the draft needing to fit one more spot (which could be pick 298).

But we get exemption for Gus' salary in total player payments ???

Facts not rhetoric please.

[goodwindees 2,352]

Guys, I’m hearing that Clayton is not totally off the table. 
He’s gettable for the right offer. 

[whatwhat say what 22,031]

1 minute ago, goodwindees said:

Guys, I’m hearing that Clayton is not totally off the table. 
He’s gettable for the right offer. 

would have to be a very good offer indeed, i suspect

[Sir Windsor 132]

2 minutes ago, goodwindees said:

Guys, I’m hearing that Clayton is not totally off the table. 
He’s gettable for the right offer. 

Why would we do it now. It was on 12 months ago. We’d struggle to get a first round pick for him now.

[adonski 10,774]

7 minutes ago, goodwindees said:

Guys, I’m hearing that Clayton is not totally off the table. 
He’s gettable for the right offer. 

Did Trac put a call in

[Jaded No More 67,532]

10 minutes ago, goodwindees said:

Guys, I’m hearing that Clayton is not totally off the table. 
He’s gettable for the right offer. 

What would be a right offer? 

[BW511 2,564]

Going all in on trying to keep Trac beyond 2025 then

Edited September 5 by BW511

[wheaters31 667]

Crows have always been interested, despite the risk.

I wonder if they'll throw pick 4 + steak knives at us?

[Sir Why You Little 36,569]

21 minutes ago, goodwindees said:

Guys, I’m hearing that Clayton is not totally off the table. 
He’s gettable for the right offer. 

Not surprised to see that…

[goodwindees 2,352]

Let me say very clearly that the Dees are not shopping Clayton, but they have been asked if 2 first rounders would get it done, and I believe it wasn’t totally shut down / dismissed. 
 

[ANG13 1,968]

32 minutes ago, goodwindees said:

Guys, I’m hearing that Clayton is not totally off the table. 
He’s gettable for the right offer. 

Thanks for sharing, always appreciate your information. My automatic response to this is he will be somewhere else next year, I would imagine there would be a club willing to give up something for him. 
 

I will be gutted if he goes but at the same time depending on how the trade may look I will understand it. 

[BDA 22,231]

2 first rounders is tempting but one would have to be top 5 pick. 

[ANG13 1,968]

2 minutes ago, goodwindees said:

Let me say very clearly that the Dees are not shopping Clayton, but they have been asked if 2 first rounders would get it done, and I believe it wasn’t totally shut down / dismissed. 
 

Geelong?

[Jaded No More 67,532]

4 minutes ago, goodwindees said:

Let me say very clearly that the Dees are not shopping Clayton, but they have been asked if 2 first rounders would get it done, and I believe it wasn’t totally shut down / dismissed. 
 

How does Clarry feel about this? I doubt he would want to leave. 
Two first rounders seems well under unless they’re firmly within the top 10. 
 

If we trade Clarry we are admitting that we are rebuilding. Window will be firmly shut. 

Edited September 5 by Jaded No More

[adonski 10,774]

1 minute ago, ANG13 said:

Geelong?

Tigers perhaps?

[Jaded No More 67,532]

2 minutes ago, ANG13 said:

Geelong?

Geelong wouldn’t have the draft capital, especially if you believe his other news that they’re getting Bailey Smith. 
 

[DiscoStu17 671]

30 minutes ago, wheaters31 said:

Crows have always been interested, despite the risk.

I wonder if they'll throw pick 4 + steak knives at us?

They love a ranga 

[ANG13 1,968]

Just now, Jaded No More said:

Geelong wouldn’t have the draft capital, especially if you believe his other news that they’re getting Bailey Smith. 
 

Probably not but from what you read which of course is not always accurate they have been interested for a while. I think even @picket fence may have hinted at them a while ago. 

[Jaded No More 67,532]

1 minute ago, ANG13 said:

Probably not but from what you read which of course is not always accurate they have been interested for a while. I think even @picket fence may have hinted at them a while ago. 

Being interested and being able to do a trade is not the same thing. Pies are very interested in Trac.

[Nascent 8,592]

31 minutes ago, wheaters31 said:

Crows have always been interested, despite the risk.

I wonder if they'll throw pick 4 + steak knives at us?

I reckon its crows. Pick 4 plus crows future 1st would be very tempting. I'd hate to see him go, one of the best players I've seen in red and blue.

[Demon Disciple 11,601]

2 first rounders could be picks 19 & 20, given f/S and academy picks. Would have to be 2x top 10 picks for it to even be considered