PREGAME: Rd 11 vs St. Kilda

[Deemania since 56 6,809]

37 minutes ago, Maldonboy38 said:

I really hope Woewodin gets a full game. Looks steady and able to cope with speed and pressure at AFL level. If we have to play Hunter, let him be the sub. 

Yes. Agree with this summation.

[Deemania since 56 6,809]

37 minutes ago, DemonWA said:

I assume Woey will be playing Howes role or a HBF.

Might find Hunter and Langdon start on the wings with Caleb as the sub? (He's faded out a little in recent weeks)

I have what are perhaps, illusions, but I see a good serviceable game from Woey interacting really effectively with either Hunter and/or Langdon from HBF, by foot, by hand and by opportunity creations.

[titan_uranus 25,255]

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

I presume expected score was in the Dogs favour?

Yes, Dogs by 5 on xScore

 

[DubDee 26,675]

Good to see accountability in selection

Happy for Tommo too! hope he kills it

[John Demonic 5,988]

1 hour ago, Deemania since 56 said:

Ha, ha! How do you really feel? 

He won't be happy until Billings is behind bars for his crimes against football

[binman 44,825]

59 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Yes, Dogs by 5 on xScore

 

5 rushed skews things doesn't it.

Not all of their rushed were misses as such. And rushed points all add to the score, so i don't think it makes sense to not include them in the actual score.

If yoy incude the 5 rushed to the actual score above it's it score 88 to expected score of 92, and their accuracy looks better.

The problem for the dogs was the actual and x and actual score lines diverged the wrong way in the last quarter.

[Demon Dynasty 17,165]

4 hours ago, Red But Mostly Blue said:

Didn't see the Howes move happening, 

Comes down to that one lack of follow up effort to at least try and chase after being turned by Harley

Bottom line... never give up on the contest.

Edited May 24, 2024 by Demon Dynasty

[David-Demon 570]

On 21/05/2024 at 09:43, WERRIDEE said:

I still have respect for BBB because he is a premiership player but I admit he's cooked.

Of course and I apologise for not saying that. 

On another note: Billings must be devastated at being dropped against his old side considering he played every game till now this season. 

[Mel Bourne 4,541]

7 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Come on mate, you’re better than that. 

Is he? 

I have not found evidence to support this. 

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,552]

For those that are surprised Howes got dropped, I reckon it was mainly due to the lack of chase on Harley Reid as he ran into an open goal.

He simply jogged and gave up rather than at least attempt to run Reid down.

Standards need to be reset in this under performing club at the moment.

[Lil_red_fire_engine 11,383]

8 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Standards need to be reset in this under performing club at the moment.

Dont disagree with this. However plenty of examples last weekend with more experienced players where a message could have been better set. Either way Howes looked like he was starting to tire and with Tomlinson, TMac, May better to play a touch smaller/faster being Howes kind of plays in between. 

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,892]

On 23/05/2024 at 16:52, loges said:

Does Tommo need to intercept though or just lock down and negate until Lever gets back. He wasn't the worst in his last couple of games, few and far between they may have been.

Seems like McDonald will intercept/3rd-man from what I’ve heard 

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,892]

13 hours ago, Deemania since 56 said:

Yes. Agree with this summation.

Club hopefully agree.. strange but I have a feeling Hunter is gonna play well, don’t ask me why!

Edited May 24, 2024 by Tolstoys Nudge

[samcantstandya 1,080]

53 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

For those that are surprised Howes got dropped, I reckon it was mainly due to the lack of chase on Harley Reid as he ran into an open goal.

He simply jogged and gave up rather than at least attempt to run Reid down.

Standards need to be reset in this under performing club at the moment.

I reckon you're right he lost focus, didn't chase hard enough and gave up. Needs to drop it before it becomes habit.

[samcantstandya 1,080]

7 hours ago, David-Demon said:

Of course and I apologise for not saying that. 

On another note: Billings must be devastated at being dropped against his old side considering he played every game till now this season. 

We've carried him and he didn't convert his opportunities.

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,892]

Just now, samcantstandya said:

We've carried him and he didn't convert his opportunities.

Shame cus he has something we just need to have him slot a few and I think his confidence will shoot up!  

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,892]

13 hours ago, Deemania since 56 said:

I have what are perhaps, illusions, but I see a good serviceable game from Woey interacting really effectively with either Hunter and/or Langdon from HBF, by foot, by hand and by opportunity creations.

I actually have same thought but then 50/50 between Hunter and Windsor as Sub as Windsor starts games well.. Hunter not running hard at Casey etc as reported by @georgeontheouter drastically overstated, he played his role & just didn’t get near it enough & I had a feeling he’d be close to selection and was told as such. He adds some much-needed cheek and mongrel for mine!

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,892]

15 hours ago, Cranky Franky said:

Moniz Wakefield has been a mile ahead of Hunter in the last few Casey games.

That’s just completely untrue! Hunter role totally different, and has been working back form several soft-tissue injuries — it’s apples and oranges! AMW atm doesn’t have AFL Level disposal or running patterns but is def closing in. Hunter has merely been used at VFL level as a tune-up for his AFL return. Some players just don’t play well at VFL level and vice-versa, Hunter a proven AFL level player, so this comment just isn’t quite right in my opinion and humble one at that.

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,892]

15 hours ago, jnrmac said:

I presume expected score was in the Dogs favour?

Not even close — unless you can’t X Score which is severely flawed!

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,892]

14 hours ago, binman said:

I don't know, but I assume so.

The dogs really should have won, swans had stopped to a walk. Though to be fair the dogs had injuries.

That last quarter looked like a dees game with all the misses.

That 50 was a shocker.

Suggest that umpire will get a rest, whilst Nicholls controversy last night gets full AFL Support.. absolute free kick everyday of week and tbh I’m really tired of McRae passive-aggression & hope maybe someone will finally call it out in mass-hysteria-media as his pressers are getting more and more virulently poor.

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,892]

21 hours ago, The Taciturn Demon said:

Long-time reader, first-time contributor. (I was on Demonology years back and always appreciated the thoughts of much more knowledgeable, perceptive and insightful Demons supporters than me.)

I appreciate that anyone who makes it to this level, let alone plays dozens or hundreds of games, is an exceptional footballer. But everything is relative...

Lachie Hunter. What's going on there? What do Goodwin and the decision makers like about him? I know he may not play this week, but in the recent press conference, Goodwin made it sound like he desperately wanted him in the team as soon as possible.

Is there something he does really well that isn't obvious to a person (me) with (at best) a mediocre understanding of the nuances of modern football? I ask because from what I see, the "brilliant footy IQ" we heard about at the time he was recruited, has never materialised. I don't remember it being there at the Bulldogs, to be honest. I don't see him as a particularly good kick (even over 25 to 30 metres), he's not a robust player, he doesn't kick many goals, he seems to take players on at the most inopportune times and the underground handball is almost like a tic. 

I see last year he was in the top 150 in the league for score involvements (behind only Petracca, Pickett, Viney, Neal Bullen and Chandler). Is it as simple as that? Despite the apparent sloppiness, is he in fact a very effective link player? 

Or is he just a known quantity benefiting from a reasonably conservative football department? Is it simply a case of better the devil you know than a debutant or five-gamer?

Hunter is a much stronger defensive runner, and has a very astute footy IQ. In modern game, turnover is crucial — Hunter is one the best exponents we have in terms of helping create turnover by being in the right places and putting pressure on in a more implied way, as well as being physical around the contest, he does lots of deft touches, ground-handballs etc that help us in transitioning the ball effectively which is crucial in punishing turnover. He also has a good i50 brain with angles and finishes better than Billings as well. Proven AFL level exponent where his impact can’t always be measured, as even pressure acts don’t quite showcase his importance in this area and in his defensive running patterns that are extremely effective. 

[layzie 34,528]

Yeah I would have preferred to see AMW get a go but Hunter has his chance now.

Little sad that this week was the week to chop Billings. Bit of a sucker for games against the old mob.

While Howes wasn't flash last week but didn't see this coming. Interested to see what we have in store for our backline.

[dazzledavey36 56,336]

1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

For those that are surprised Howes got dropped, I reckon it was mainly due to the lack of chase on Harley Reid as he ran into an open goal.

He simply jogged and gave up rather than at least attempt to run Reid down.

Standards need to be reset in this under performing club at the moment.

There's an attempt to chase and then there's desperation. Unfortunately he just gave up way too easily and it didn't look good at all. 

He wasn't the only one on the day but this particular incident certainly stood out the most.

Howes played his best footy and got recruited off the back of playing as a floating tall similitude to Jack Gunston. I wonder if this is something the club will trial over the next 12 months? To me he's still a but shaky in defence and whilst 10 games so far this year is a good starting point, I really think he'd be a good option up forward. 

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,892]

21 hours ago, binman said:

Last night's game was yet another example of what i'm talking about above.

The dogs had a whopping 16 center clearances last night, twice as many as the Swans who could only manage 8. 

The Swans were plus 3 for around the ground stoppages, meaning the dogs were +5 for total clearances 

Six years ago if a team had 16 center clearances and their opponent only 8, that would be the ball game.

But as is often the case now, the dogs center square domination was not a decisive factor in the game.  

They scored 6.6.42 from stoppages (in total, ie centre and around the ground combined) to the swans' 5.2.32.

Like so many games now, the decisive factor was scores from turnover, with the dogs scoring 6.10.46 from turnovers and the Swans 11.2.68.

On turnovers, there is no doubt the dogs inaccuracy hurt them, they had 16 to 13 turnover scores after all.

But an interesting factor to consider, particularly as it relates to the discussion about us changing our game plan, is that the dogs dominated inside 50s, particularly in the last quarter, winning inside 50s 60-48.

I think there is enough evidence now to suggest the time in forward half model, high inside 50 numbers with lots of reentries into a crowded forward line (ie our 2021-23  game plan) contributes to inaccuracy. 

The other interesting stat from last nights game, also relevant to the midfield discussion (given the key role mids play in terms of winning contested possessions), is the dogs smashed the swans for contested possessions 138 to 105.  

I truly wish more ppl would engage with this topic. Post-clearance ball is VITAL in today’s transition based game! It all stems from the Tigers glad years, albeit a diff version to today, but it is all about pressure and stand-rule was created due to tigers effective mgmt of not allowing teams easy kicks & basically “mucking-the-game” into creating turnover again albeit with diff method of fwd momentum and hacking fwd rather than smooth transition footy were seeing now.
 

Pies and somewhat Blues (yes, contested/clearance based blues) post their losing streak really honed this turnover/trans craft and it’s also why this year they’re not as effective for other teams have taken it further and that is what WE/DEES are trying to do. It’ll take time, but I’m convinced it WILL click at some stage & like late 2020 when we started our fwd-half game, it’ll then start to click more and more effectively. The method is all about running patterns once turnover is created and getting separation from other teams zone so each week looks slightly diff but idea is to get ball from turnover, breaking up chains, explode out with handball and then gain control by hitting angled targets that can take advantage of stand-rule in fed half by then getting easier hit-ups i50 but not from ‘leads’ so much as from players running in Trans to certain hot-spots that allow better shots at goal.
 

We’ve not perfected it yet but blv me Hunter and Lingers, Windsor ALL play crucial role alongside Nibs, Chinny Chandler, Kos, Trac etc as hopefully you’ll start to see this week against a defensive team like Saints who cough-up regularly due to poor kicking players outside of Wanganeen-Milera, 1-2 others — they have butchers disposing of the ball and it should give us a good-look at where we are at and how much we can punish will dictate the game. 
 

For all those peeps bemused by Hunter selection, it’s 💯 strategy execution based! It’s also why Billings was hoped to be as good but unfortunately he’s just not taken enough chances and is not getting there fast enough defensively so hence why Hunter now gets his shot as he always was going to. It’s also why Howes comes out, as without Lever/Hore we need balance & cannot have he and Woey in same defence & Salo they want midfield. This means Woey is marked to play full game — mark-it down, Howes out means he is a near certainty!

[binman 44,825]

24 minutes ago, Tolstoys Nudge said:

Suggest that umpire will get a rest, whilst Nicholls controversy last night gets full AFL Support.. absolute free kick everyday of week and tbh I’m really tired of McRae passive-aggression & hope maybe someone will finally call it out in mass-hysteria-media as his pressers are getting more and more virulently poor.

Funny you should mention that.

He did the half time interview they do walking with the coach to the bench.

Was rude and didmissive. Made some lame joke at the end about Sarah knowing how much he 'loves' those interviews.

Passive aggressive was exactly the thought i had. I wondered waht that was all about given hsi image as Me Media 

Then when they went back to the commentary team Brian Taylor contextualized his comments and tone, saying Mcrae doesn't like in match interviews which is why he doesn't do them often.

What coach does? [censored] poor if you ask me