On 25/04/2024 at 09:03, Gawndy the Great said:

I don’t expect to win every week but the last 3-4 weeks we haven’t played good footy and are lucky walking away with 3-1. I’ll eat my hat if we win even 1 out of our next 2. A lot will need to go right I think. 

Still-shots are welcome but only if accompanied by a video. Any short vid platform will suffice, TikTok probs being the best. Thanks in advance. 😉 

  On 25/04/2024 at 09:23, binman said:

To be honest, it feels as if you are simply searching for proof we are no good.

Clearance numbers mean squat. It's about the score from clearances differential. 

As I noted above we have smashing teams for scores from stoppages.

I've no idea what yoy are talking about with our pressure.

We had one quarter out of 28 with a pressure rating of 150 and that's evidence our pressure had been off?

Apart from the lions game, when blund freddy could see we were gassed, it has been largely fantastic.

Go check out the stats file thread. The pressure numbers are there for every game.

And even less idea what you are talking about in terms of our last 3-4 weeks.

Poor against the lions, but we still only got beaten by 22 points.

Poor in the first half last night, we piled on 10 goals to 2 in the second half to win by 43 points (against the same team who rolled the swans a couple of weeks back).

We beat the crows. At Adelaide oval off a five day break.

And in one of the games of the season,  and arguably one of our best games since our flag, we beat Port at Adelaide oval.

But we all see what we want to see i guess.

You're not a Smiths fan by any chance?

It feels like we are no good, you yourself admitted to as much in the previous post. 

I’ll park it here for now and see how the next two weeks unfold. 

To appreciate this win and getting the 4 points I only have to look back at the bad old days when we were perennial bottom four. In those days when we had a first half as we did against Richmond we would back it up with an even worse performance in the second half.

I can take comfort in the way we re-set at half time and took the game away from the opposition. We were not great in the second half but we did respond to the position of the game in a very positive way and we had the talent and ability to do so.

There are a lot of things we could discuss from that performance but I like to look at the positive things.

That was a defensive masterclass for the whole of the game. The back 6 were rock solid. Lever and May lead from the front and the rest of the D50 team supported very, very well.

Tmac, Rivers, McVee and Howe with a couple of others rotating through there as required. 

Tmac is back in the backs and looks solid with great movement. I am one that would have had Tomlinson in there before him  but I have to say that, on performances to date, the selectors have got it right.

Rivers is perfect coming out of the D50. He has speed strength and footy sense to deliver. Once we have a few of the injured back I would like to see him attend a few center bounces.

Mc Vee has slotted in there from last season and plays with a maturity that belies his years.

Howe, I find, is just amazing with how he has performed so far this season. Does his job, beats his man and moves on to the next challenge without fuss.

All this with a couple of our top defenders out with injury.

The win against Richmond was built on our solid defensive foundation.

Mids were not to be seen until the second half and then they only just sparked.

The forwards made the best of what came their way in the second half but a couple of them might be looking over their shoulders at selection time for the team against Geelong.

Get out the team sheet and write in the defenders right now and fill in the rest a couple of days before the match.

 

Just filling in time here watching a whole lot of Victorians running round in Canberra

  1. There are some grounds for calling last night's south The Checker-Yze Cup, on account of the way Richmond were able to shut us down for half the game. Yze went from Melbourne to Richmond, Frank went from Richmond to Melbourne.

2. Checker-Hughes was that smoker sitting next to Our Norm when the '64 siren went. So much for Barassi's excuse that he was worried about Smith looking over his shoulder If Barassi had stayed in red and blue colours. If it was good enough for Checker to blow smoke in Norm's face what was Ron's problem having his old mentor fiddling around with the whiteboard?

  On 25/04/2024 at 08:51, binman said:

We are 5-2 with a healthy percentage, with the most difficult part of our fixture in yerms of scheduling (eg interstate travel and breaks between games) done and dusted.

And we are not playing our best football.

The other big factor is we are trying to implement a changed method, which is always a challenge.

On that front we are number one for rebound 50s (tigers second, cats third). Laudable given better transition from the back half is the foundation of the new method.

You see doom. I see upside.

As clarry said in his post match interview, we started hot  in previous years and fell away.  He said they are focused on setting things up to plsy our best footy come finals.

As someone fully on board Team Change The Way We Play I agree that there was always going to be regression as we did this alteration adaption. 

But make no mistake - there are no guarantees we hit this upside that is readily obvious and continue to be ‘in it but not win it’ - especially when the margins are so small.

We did not need Salem and Bowey to miss extended periods and we can that too into a plus, but we are going to go through impotent periods in the next two weeks and I am intrigued to see what we can achieve. I can’t see us winning either this early into our Renaissance to Interesting Footy but I just want us to continue to counter and pivot and run-and-gun. 

One can’t ascribe our fortunes just yet…

  On 25/04/2024 at 10:11, Gawndy the Great said:

It feels like we are no good, you yourself admitted to as much in the previous post. 

I’ll park it here for now and see how the next two weeks 

I did no such thing.

For petes sake, a third of the way through the season we are 5-2, 4th on the ladder with the 4th best percentage of any team, having played 3 of our 7 games interstate.

5-2. 4th on the ladder. 4th best percentage. With four of our best 22 to come back in (salo,Bowser, Hunter and melk).

And it feels as if we are no good?

Man oh man we see the game differently.

Edited April 25, 20241 yr by binman

It just sucks that we're playing Carlton on a 5 day break (vs 6 days for them)

  On 25/04/2024 at 10:57, rpfc said:

As someone fully on board Team Change The Way We Play I agree that there was always going to be regression as we did this alteration adaption. 

But make no mistake - there are no guarantees we hit this upside that is readily obvious and continue to be ‘in it but not win it’ - especially when the margins are so small.

We did not need Salem and Bowey to miss extended periods and we can that too into a plus, but we are going to go through impotent periods in the next two weeks and I am intrigued to see what we can achieve. I can’t see us winning either this early into our Renaissance to Interesting Footy but I just want us to continue to counter and pivot and run-and-gun. 

One can’t ascribe our fortunes just yet…

Impotent periods - does that mean we need to stiffen our resolve or take some little blue tablets before a game.

  On 25/04/2024 at 08:58, Doug Reemer said:

You’re kidding aren’t you? The centre clearance may have been even, but everything else was deplorable.

Again, look at @binman's post. They failed to score a single goal from stoppage.

You're just inventing a different game inside your own head. It's very odd behaviour.

You too, dazzle. You can like old Reemer's post all day, but your viewpoint is detached from reality.

Edited April 25, 20241 yr by Binmans PA

The Great

👑Gawn just a leader and warrior   Champion ruckman  we are blessed 

👑May love his intensity  marked and defended everything 

The Very Good

👏👏Rivers ran and rebounded and kicked and ran and tackled and ran 

👏👏Lever solid as a rock with interceptions 

👏👏Turner love the Disco fever   Good mark and love the celebrations 

The Good 

👍🏻Langdon another good game across all areas 

👍🏻McVee reliable and controlled Dusty

👍🏻Howes solid just solid again 

Was ok 

Pickett - so close   Started well then drifted but we look dangerous with him in 

Neal- Bullen  got in and under but disposal were ineffective mostly 

Windsor - run run run  good interception goal

Billings - was better but just ok   Pace? Intensity? 

Fritsch - in and out   Two beautiful goals   

Woey jnr - was ok   Run down tackles were good 

Need to lift 

🤞Petracca - sometimes glimpses of his best but went missing as he was tagged    Fumbled and sloppy handballs missed targets   

🤨McDonald - bad turnovers x 3 were costly 

🤞Viney  - a bull and we love JV7 but decision making again was lacking 

🤞Oliver - we know he’s a champion. Skills off but he’s sheer willpower carries him  🤞he discovers his mojo 

Really struggling 

🥶Sparrow - lack of pace showed up last night. Fumbled in 3-4 crucial stages.  Not sure he’s a midfielder 

😭JVR - just can’t hold his marks. He jumps around a lot. Another nearly game   

🥶Chandler - overran the footy   Fumbled   Effort yes but has dropped off again 

* Laurie - sub so limited chances.  Skills yes. Pace no.  Goals were classy.  But he was twice easily beaten in contests and lacks pace. 

🤢Petty - confidence as a forward is shot.  Even shots for goal, he looks uncertain.  Needs to get back to a premiership defender.  
 

Goodwin - laughing at mistakes. That’s ridiculous.  Imagine the great RDB laughing. The coach must demand the highest standards. 

  On 25/04/2024 at 10:57, rpfc said:

As someone fully on board Team Change The Way We Play I agree that there was always going to be regression as we did this alteration adaption. 

But make no mistake - there are no guarantees we hit this upside that is readily obvious and continue to be ‘in it but not win it’ - especially when the margins are so small.

We did not need Salem and Bowey to miss extended periods and we can that too into a plus, but we are going to go through impotent periods in the next two weeks and I am intrigued to see what we can achieve. I can’t see us winning either this early into our Renaissance to Interesting Footy but I just want us to continue to counter and pivot and run-and-gun. 

One can’t ascribe our fortunes just yet…

This to me is now why it will be hard to get a read on the Geelong and Carlton games.

If we've got Woey, Lever and TMac trying to hit those angled kicks into the corridor versus Bowser or Salo, it is pretty likely we'll turn the ball over far more often than we would without those two injured. Huge outs.

  On 25/04/2024 at 11:00, binman said:

I did no such thing.

For petes sake, a third of the way through the season we are 5-2, 4th on the ladder with the 4th best percentage of any team, having played 3 of our 7 games interstate.

5-2. 4th on the ladder. 4th best percentage. With three of our best 22 to come back in (salo, Hunter and melk).

And it feels as if we are no good?

Man oh man we see the game differently.

Change Bowser for Hunter and very likely Melk for McAdam and I agree completely.

  On 25/04/2024 at 09:03, Gawndy the Great said:

I think I’m trying to find the stats that help put facts behind feelings. And what I can see is that  we are way off on the game we used to play. I’ll give Goody the benefit in that we have had double straight set exits and he has recognised the need to change.

Our contested and clearance dominance is significantly off and that for a large parts explains what feels like a huge drop off in our stoppage dominance. Is this a lull? A design change ? Who knows but it’s what our list was built on. 

Our pressure numbers are also really poor with another 150 quarter this year which is deplorable.  Top 4 teams are undone largely through pressure and whilst we are only at round 7, you cannot just flick a switch and expect it to come back.

I don’t expect to win every week but the last 3-4 weeks we haven’t played good footy and are lucky walking away with 3-1. I’ll eat my hat if we win even 1 out of our next 2. A lot will need to go right I think. 

Once you acknowledge the bolded bit, I'm not quite sure I understand most of the rest of the post.

Yes, we are no longer dominating CPs and clearances like we did in 2021-23. Why are you then rhetorically bemoaning this? We have spent the past two years dominating CPs, clearances and time in forward half only to go 0-4 in finals. Very few people, if any, responded to that with "it's OK, let's just do it all again in 2024".

We have made concerted attempts to lower our reliance on stoppage scoring and increase our reliance on turnover scoring. It's therefore no wonder that we're down in those stats you've mentioned.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not quite at the @binman opposite end of the spectrum. IMO we're conceding too much territory to our opponents and spending too much time in our back half. We're clearly still elite at our back half defence and intercept game, and we're more likely to go all the way if we are reliably good at scoring off turnover than off stoppage. But IMO in our desire to shift the balance away from stoppage and towards turnover (or away from scores from front half and towards scores from back half), we've overbalanced. As has been mentioned so far, it doesn't help that we're down Bowey and Salem (and, from pre-season planning, Brayshaw) and have found ourselves with TMac (a terrible field kick) doing so well in most other parts of the game to warrant a spot in the backline. 

  On 25/04/2024 at 12:57, titan_uranus said:

Once you acknowledge the bolded bit, I'm not quite sure I understand most of the rest of the post.

Yes, we are no longer dominating CPs and clearances like we did in 2021-23. Why are you then rhetorically bemoaning this? We have spent the past two years dominating CPs, clearances and time in forward half only to go 0-4 in finals. Very few people, if any, responded to that with "it's OK, let's just do it all again in 2024".

We have made concerted attempts to lower our reliance on stoppage scoring and increase our reliance on turnover scoring. It's therefore no wonder that we're down in those stats you've mentioned.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not quite at the @binman opposite end of the spectrum. IMO we're conceding too much territory to our opponents and spending too much time in our back half. We're clearly still elite at our back half defence and intercept game, and we're more likely to go all the way if we are reliably good at scoring off turnover than off stoppage. But IMO in our desire to shift the balance away from stoppage and towards turnover (or away from scores from front half and towards scores from back half), we've overbalanced. As has been mentioned so far, it doesn't help that we're down Bowey and Salem (and, from pre-season planning, Brayshaw) and have found ourselves with TMac (a terrible field kick) doing so well in most other parts of the game to warrant a spot in the backline. 

.Our dna is contested footy. Our list is built on this. Whilst I said what i said, I highly doubt our contested, forward half game is just being tossed out. That’s the recipe to win finals.
 

Our ball movement and scoring were the areas of concern in past years and moving it faster from back half intercepts is a great source of turnover potential. Also gives our forwards a chance as the old bomb it in and hope for the best doesn’t work. 
 

Clearances and stoppage dominance may not be the honeypot we want but it does give you territory, which is a key part of our dna.
 

people are underrating how well disciplined yze has the tigs playing, particularly given the sheer amount of players they have on the sidelines currently

easy to forget they knocked off sydney when they were absolutely flying

in the first half they closed down space brilliantly and meant we couldn't get any ball movement going, our disposal was atrocious and gifted them scoring opportunities

in the second half we continued to play the way we want to play - not a clearance-based game, but instead a post-clearance possession game - and we pretty much dominated as we expected

 

  On 25/04/2024 at 12:43, Binmans PA said:

Change Bowser for Hunter and very likely Melk for McAdam and I agree completely.

Meant to include Bowser. Brain fade.

Have to see macadam first.

I'd also point out the 52% inside 50 efficiency with 26 shots from 50 entries. 

We were recently getting telephone numbers for entries and doing very little with them. I'd like to see our average across the season but this shows we're doing something right.

  On 25/04/2024 at 12:57, titan_uranus said:

Once you acknowledge the bolded bit, I'm not quite sure I understand most of the rest of the post.

Yes, we are no longer dominating CPs and clearances like we did in 2021-23. Why are you then rhetorically bemoaning this? We have spent the past two years dominating CPs, clearances and time in forward half only to go 0-4 in finals. Very few people, if any, responded to that with "it's OK, let's just do it all again in 2024".

We have made concerted attempts to lower our reliance on stoppage scoring and increase our reliance on turnover scoring. It's therefore no wonder that we're down in those stats you've mentioned.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not quite at the @binman opposite end of the spectrum. IMO we're conceding too much territory to our opponents and spending too much time in our back half. We're clearly still elite at our back half defence and intercept game, and we're more likely to go all the way if we are reliably good at scoring off turnover than off stoppage. But IMO in our desire to shift the balance away from stoppage and towards turnover (or away from scores from front half and towards scores from back half), we've overbalanced. As has been mentioned so far, it doesn't help that we're down Bowey and Salem (and, from pre-season planning, Brayshaw) and have found ourselves with TMac (a terrible field kick) doing so well in most other parts of the game to warrant a spot in the backline. 

That surprises me TU.

I had you pegged as a bit more realistic.

But perhaps I've misunderstood your scaling parameter, and it isn't subjective to objective.

By the by tmac is an excellent field kick.

Which is why he I'd going at 81.8% by foot this year.

By way of contrast salo is at 70.6%

But salo takes on harder kicks I hear you say.

Fair point, though there is still a 11.2% gap between the two.

  On 25/04/2024 at 12:42, Binmans PA said:

This to me is now why it will be hard to get a read on the Geelong and Carlton games.

If we've got Woey, Lever and TMac trying to hit those angled kicks into the corridor versus Bowser or Salo, it is pretty likely we'll turn the ball over far more often than we would without those two injured. Huge outs.

Hard to read and hard to win. 

We may be 5-4 with increased pressure on Goodwin and some maligned players (injured or not) - the pressure to become insular and protective of our backline will be strong and revert to our inert and boring 22-23 style.

We have to put up the losses and be confident that we are on the right path.

Even if it’s for the sake of 2025.

  On 25/04/2024 at 14:10, Gawndy the Great said:

.Our dna is contested footy. Our list is built on this. Whilst I said what i said, I highly doubt our contested, forward half game is just being tossed out. That’s the recipe to win finals.
 

Our ball movement and scoring were the areas of concern in past years and moving it faster from back half intercepts is a great source of turnover potential. Also gives our forwards a chance as the old bomb it in and hope for the best doesn’t work. 
 

Clearances and stoppage dominance may not be the honeypot we want but it does give you territory, which is a key part of our dna.
 

I agree with all of the above.

Contest and pressure is absolutely the foundation of our game. It is fir all clubs. And for the dees the other fundamental is defence.

And I'd agree that come finals our game will revert back to a large degree to a forward half, territory game. That's finals footy. 

But hopefully key elements of the new,  transition from back half method will remain in place.

And hopefully playing a less contested, coal face game during the home and away series will mean we are not as banged up come finals as we were in 2023 and 2022.

I mean think back to those seasons.

At the end of 2022 our first pre finals training session looked like an episode of MASH with all the bandages and limping.

At the end of last season our forward line was missing so many players that we had to bring in an injured tmac. 

It is obvious, and clarry said as much, that they want to make the home and way season less physically taxing. And there is hardly a more taxing method than that used by the dees since the start of the 2021 season.

It makes perfect sense to implement a less taxing methodin the home and away season and kudos to goody for doing so - particularly given the associated risks, winning fewer games being the obvious one.

But in order to change something so fundamental we are going to have to wear some funky stats, some out of character performances and some losses too.

Rome wasn't built in a day.

  On 25/04/2024 at 08:58, Doug Reemer said:

You’re kidding aren’t you? The centre clearance may have been even, but everything else was deplorable.

I take on Binman' s stats about the quality of centre clearances. 

The ccs weren't the issue for me. I thought the midfield problem was generally their lack of impact in general play. Often when they did get the ball ( and statistically they were all down on disposals) it was the errant disposal. If it wasn't for our backline it could have been a very different story.

  On 25/04/2024 at 09:03, Gawndy the Great said:

I think I’m trying to find the stats that help put facts behind feelings. And what I can see is that  we are way off on the game we used to play. I’ll give Goody the benefit in that we have had double straight set exits and he has recognised the need to change.

Our contested and clearance dominance is significantly off and that for a large parts explains what feels like a huge drop off in our stoppage dominance. Is this a lull? A design change ? Who knows but it’s what our list was built on. 

Our pressure numbers are also really poor with another 150 quarter this year which is deplorable.  Top 4 teams are undone largely through pressure and whilst we are only at round 7, you cannot just flick a switch and expect it to come back.

I don’t expect to win every week but the last 3-4 weeks we haven’t played good footy and are lucky walking away with 3-1. I’ll eat my hat if we win even 1 out of our next 2. A lot will need to go right I think. 

I agree with our last two performances being off. But I do give credit to the two games we won in Adelaide. It was, to be fair an unbelievable effort over there. Sadly I think those wins took their toll. And as for the tigers game maybe we over trained in the interim or something. Because despite doubling the tigers score I haven't seen this team fumble and turn it over so much for eons. Hopefully as Bbo said a simple aberration. I'm worried about Petty but I guess stoked about Turner . 

Edited April 26, 20241 yr by leave it to deever

TMac myths - he's a horrible field kick.

According to Wheeloratings he's mid table for turnovers per match and disposals per turnover for key defenders and better than May and Lever on the first and better than Lever but worse than May on the second, probably because May takes some point kick-ins.

Ironically Frosty is pretty close to best KPD in both categories.

  On 25/04/2024 at 23:34, leave it to deever said:

I haven't seen this term fumble and turn it over so much for eons

Nor I. Then there was the second half. 76 % disposal efficiency. Season average all teams is 65%. Truly a game of two halves 😉. Which one is us? I’m going with ‘you’re only as good as your last half”. 

  On 25/04/2024 at 02:25, binman said:

That is just so brilliant.

And is the sort of analysis that coverage of hamwsso desperately needs. It would be so easy to introduce too.

White notes the space viney creates and holds. One thing I noticed about tracc getting tagged by kickett is at centre square stoppages he took kickett away from the drop of the ball. That space often allowed koz to get involved and helped with clean exits.

Which is the sort of thing goody  us referecing when he talks about how we take advantage of a tag on clarry, tracc or Oliver.

Another tick for Goody as Brisbane effectively nullified Trac last week with a wingers tag. Good to see him adapting week by week.