Hypotheticals on Tasmania entry concessions

[Skuit 10,031]

Two-pronged question. 

Hun journalist Sam Hamburger has reported the 'Tasmania Devils' will likely receive very different draft concessions than the Giants and GWS.

See here for non a non-paywalled report: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-17/australia-to-miss-2030-climate-goal-by-couple-years-oxford-says?srnd=green&embedded-checkout=true

If you were an AFL administrator, how would you manage the Devil's entry?

Also, the draft hand-outs to the previous two expansion clubs undoubtedly impacted the MFC's rebuild while we were at the bottom of the pack. 

Forecasting ahead, how do you think the next round of proposed concessions may impact our club and others? Is there a strategy we can put in place to mitigate? 

(For the record, I'm not sjit-stirring: I'm all for the Tasmanian expansion, and would love to see an NT-based club enter the league at the same time or thereabouts) 

[The Jackson FIX 3,512]

Access to the best free agents at a time when our highest paid players are coming off the books my biggest concern. 

We’ll either be paying inflated prices or just won’t get a look in at all. 

 

[Skuit 10,031]

41 minutes ago, The Jackson FIX said:

Access to the best free agents at a time when our highest paid players are coming off the books my biggest concern. 

We’ll either be paying inflated prices or just won’t get a look in at all. 

 

But if they raid our star player free agency stocks toward the end of their careers on big $ it could set us up for a rapid rebuild through high-end draft compo and trade cookies, no? Maybe the timing will be perfect?

Edited March 19, 2024 by Skuit

[DistrACTION Jackson 10,728]

30 minutes ago, Skuit said:

But if they raid our star player free agency stocks toward the end of their careers on big $ it could set us up for a rapid rebuild through high-end draft compo and trade cookies, no? Maybe the timing will be perfect?

This is true, as long as there is compensation.

I think our list management and drafting team are one of the better ones, so will back us to have a good strategy in place.

[The Jackson FIX 3,512]

1 hour ago, Skuit said:

But if they raid our star player free agency stocks toward the end of their careers on big $ it could set us up for a rapid rebuild through high-end draft compo and trade cookies, no? Maybe the timing will be perfect?

Two things;

 

1. I don’t think there will be much  compensation for the new club picking up free agents 

2. Our top tier will be old men by that time (Lever, Trac, Oliver well into their 30s and Gawn, May, Viney will be in retirement villages).

 

[BigMacjnr 283]

There is more information filtering through on what the concessions will look like: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/department-of-trade/afl-2024-tasmania-devils-to-trade-for-players-using-draft-picks-15-million-salary-cap-bonus-targets-colby-mckercher-latest-news/news-story/7d372c8697ccc249148d9b43a26602d6

Summary they will likely get strong draft picks ie. 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 10, 11 but they will be forced to trade in talent with some of those selections. Sounds like they will also have an additional $1-1.5m in sign on bonuses to sign free agents which will be factored into the compensation pick return for the club losing the player. 

I would imagine they would also have NGA academy rights to Tasmanian players with either pre-listing or bid-matching capabilities. 

This sounds like a much friendlier structure than what GWS and Gold Coast had and won't overly hurt the clubs who are rebuilding at that time. 

[Little Goffy 14,963]

Most of our current top players will be retired or close to it by 2028 (or whenever Tasmania actually enters the competition).

At the moment our younger-end players seems to be a large swell of quality without many obvious super stars of the future. That could be a problem if we don't unearth any young guns in the next few drafts or Free Agent periods, but it also makes our future list quite resilient to losing individual players.

We are likely to have a massive chunk of salary cap space available as soon as the end of this season and certainly over the next few years.

I wonder... would recruiting top-end free agents between now and 2028 actually insulate us from Tassie impacts? It would seem anyone who changes club right before Tassie comes in would not be thinking so much of making another switch just a couple of seasons later. Perhaps that is the path to ensuring our wave of respectable, capable draftees are still supported by the star power which takes teams from competitive to dominant?

It'll all be fine when we pick up Andrew Brayshaw, Luke Davies-Uniake, both De Konigs, Oscar Allen, and Jacob Weitering in a single free agency period! #megaraid

A little side note; the linked article in the original post was for a Bloomberg report about Australia not meeting its 2030 climate targets. I can see how 'things which have been promised for decades but seem to always slip further away' could get that and a Tassie team mixed.

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

1 hour ago, The Jackson FIX said:

Two things;

 

1. I don’t think there will be much  compensation for the new club picking up free agents 

2. Our top tier will be old men by that time (Lever, Trac, Oliver well into their 30s and Gawn, May, Viney will be in retirement villages).

 

What I hear is there will be great compensation for RFA as signing bonuses will be factored into the equation. So someone like Rivers going, which might get us a round 2 pick suddenly nets a round 1 compensation pick. Kozzy might go from back end round 1 to top 5 etc or may net multiple compensation picks.

The picks offered to Tassie will be similar to GWS but they can only trade them this time around.

[Left Foot Snap 2,609]

7 hours ago, Skuit said:

 

(For the record, I'm not sjit-stirring: I'm all for the Tasmanian expansion, and would love to see an NT-based club enter the league at the same time or thereabouts) 

I'd hate to see an NT based team. Too sparsely populated in Alice Springs and way too hot in Darwin.

I think a third Perth club should be looked at. They produce bucket loads of talent, would make more local derby's and if you had to play two of their teams in Perth you could schedule them back to back and stay in the city for both games and amortise the travel Liabilty. (Also think this should be considered for the WA games interstate some times).

[pitmaster 3,592]

There was something on Fox about access to all Tasmanian father son prospects. Luckily we're not counting on too many of those. 

[Roost it far 10,136]

Are they drafting in 2026?

[Diamond_Jim 12,773]

34 minutes ago, Left Foot Snap said:

I'd hate to see an NT based team. Too sparsely populated in Alice Springs and way too hot in Darwin.

I think a third Perth club should be looked at. They produce bucket loads of talent, would make more local derby's and if you had to play two of their teams in Perth you could schedule them back to back and stay in the city for both games and amortise the travel Liabilty. (Also think this should be considered for the WA games interstate some times).

Perth or Adelaide makes sense... (Canberra would be an interesting business case)

The NT business case made far less sense than the Tasmanian one but perhaps they could play a few games in Singapore 😅

[Left Foot Snap 2,609]

Love Singapore, but better be the best air-conditioned stadium ever built!

[Skuit 10,031]

5 hours ago, BigMacjnr said:

There is more information filtering through on what the concessions will look like: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/department-of-trade/afl-2024-tasmania-devils-to-trade-for-players-using-draft-picks-15-million-salary-cap-bonus-targets-colby-mckercher-latest-news/news-story/7d372c8697ccc249148d9b43a26602d6

Summary they will likely get strong draft picks ie. 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 10, 11 but they will be forced to trade in talent with some of those selections. Sounds like they will also have an additional $1-1.5m in sign on bonuses to sign free agents which will be factored into the compensation pick return for the club losing the player. 

I would imagine they would also have NGA academy rights to Tasmanian players with either pre-listing or bid-matching capabilities. 

This sounds like a much friendlier structure than what GWS and Gold Coast had and won't overly hurt the clubs who are rebuilding at that time. 

Thanks for adding my originally intended link. I see mine is about something completely unrelated. @Demonland Is it possible to fix that please? 

[Sir Why You Little 37,457]

3 hours ago, Left Foot Snap said:

I'd hate to see an NT based team. Too sparsely populated in Alice Springs and way too hot in Darwin.

I think a third Perth club should be looked at. They produce bucket loads of talent, would make more local derby's and if you had to play two of their teams in Perth you could schedule them back to back and stay in the city for both games and amortise the travel Liabilty. (Also think this should be considered for the WA games interstate some times).

Playing in the NT over a whole season is ludicrous. Going from that heat to games in Melbourne and Tasmania regularly would make the players sick, no doubt about it 

 

[Skuit 10,031]

6 hours ago, The Jackson FIX said:

Two things;

 

1. I don’t think there will be much  compensation for the new club picking up free agents 

2. Our top tier will be old men by that time (Lever, Trac, Oliver well into their 30s and Gawn, May, Viney will be in retirement villages).

 

Why do you think the AFL would lower the free agency compo for Tasmania? What would be the practical reason if Tas were being made to draft out of the top end anyway (although I doubt that will apply to the top two or three draft concessions)? I would imagine they'd also want to encourage clubs to let their RAs go. 

Edited March 20, 2024 by Skuit

[Diamond_Jim 12,773]

3 minutes ago, Skuit said:

Why do you think the AFL would lower the free agency compo for Tasmania? Would would be the practical reason if Tas were being made to draft out of the top end anyway (although I doubt that will apply to the top two or three draft concessions)? I would imagine they'd also want to encourage clubs to let their RAs go. 

Many people here assuming the AFL want to help this team be successful/competitive in the short term. This team is not an AFL lovechild such as GWS or GCS

[DEE fence 5,054]

More worried about someone like JT leaving as head of recruiting, will be an attractive job with all that trading to be done. Would want 4 1st round picks if he got poached.

[DEE fence 5,054]

I would sooner have a NZ team than a NT team if the competition was going to expand again, would be the largest domestic completion on earth geographically,  not that I can see it happening.

[Fat Tony 5,337]

6 hours ago, BigMacjnr said:

There is more information filtering through on what the concessions will look like: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/department-of-trade/afl-2024-tasmania-devils-to-trade-for-players-using-draft-picks-15-million-salary-cap-bonus-targets-colby-mckercher-latest-news/news-story/7d372c8697ccc249148d9b43a26602d6

Summary they will likely get strong draft picks ie. 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 10, 11 but they will be forced to trade in talent with some of those selections. Sounds like they will also have an additional $1-1.5m in sign on bonuses to sign free agents which will be factored into the compensation pick return for the club losing the player. 

I would imagine they would also have NGA academy rights to Tasmanian players with either pre-listing or bid-matching capabilities. 

This sounds like a much friendlier structure than what GWS and Gold Coast had and won't overly hurt the clubs who are rebuilding at that time. 

It will be a big hit for the bottom teams and almost identical to the situation when GWS came into the competition. The wooden spooner will get pick 5 instead of pick 1.

[spirit of norm smith 16,679]

Devils to get 

draft picks 1,3,5,7, 19,21,23,25 in draft “two years” before into competition 

then draft picks 1,4,7, 10,13, 19, 22, 25 in the draft prior to coming into the competition 

that’s 16 draft picks to acquire the best young talent.  Must trade at least 3 of these picks to clubs to acquire ready to go players 
 

free agent sign up availability 

priority access to delisted free agents etc 

access to any father sons from the TSL, VFL or AFL playing above 100 games. 

[Waltham33 475]

If you have to provide excessive concessions for new clubs at this stage it says little for why you need the club.  

[The Jackson FIX 3,512]

One of the journos came out tonight and said a likely model would be Tassie will get access to a bucket load of draft picks but there will be conditions on them trading a certain number of those picks 

[whatwhat say what 23,855]

2 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Devils to get 

draft picks 1,3,5,7, 19,21,23,25 in draft “two years” before into competition 

then draft picks 1,4,7, 10,13, 19, 22, 25 in the draft prior to coming into the competition 

that’s 16 draft picks to acquire the best young talent.  Must trade at least 3 of these picks to clubs to acquire ready to go players 
 

free agent sign up availability 

priority access to delisted free agents etc 

access to any father sons from the TSL, VFL or AFL playing above 100 games. 

That’d make the leg up that the two northern franchises got look like chicken feed

[Fat Tony 5,337]

3 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Devils to get 

draft picks 1,3,5,7, 19,21,23,25 in draft “two years” before into competition 

then draft picks 1,4,7, 10,13, 19, 22, 25 in the draft prior to coming into the competition 

that’s 16 draft picks to acquire the best young talent.  Must trade at least 3 of these picks to clubs to acquire ready to go players 
 

free agent sign up availability 

priority access to delisted free agents etc 

access to any father sons from the TSL, VFL or AFL playing above 100 games. 

So the best draftees wait a year to play AFL. No way the AFLPA should agree to that.