The Pick 1 Thread

[Stiff Arm 4,419]

58 minutes ago, old55 said:

I'm going all in, assuming we like Duursma ...

WC give 1 + 23 get 2 + 6 + 42 - result: 2, 6, 37, 42, 58

North give 2 + 3 + 18 get 1 + 11 + F1 - result: 1, 11, 15, 17, 57 + F1

MFC give 6 + 11 + F1 + 42 get 3 + 18 + 23 - result 3, 18, 23, minus F1

23 is a valuable pick because it's the first pick in round 2 on night 2 and clubs who want a slider will pay a F1 for it.

You can leave the F1 and 18 out of it if you prefer.

Pick 3 will end up at 4. That won't get us Duursma, but it will be enough for McKercher 

[Adam The God 30,217]

10 minutes ago, SthSea22 said:

WC will win either way

NM and MFC will be paying overs 

But it depends how you rate the currency of exchange.

If I'm paying overs and it's in Russian Rubel or Zimbabwean dollars, what matters is what I eventually get in exchange.

[old55 23,539]

19 minutes ago, Stiff Arm said:

Pick 3 will end up at 4. That won't get us Duursma, but it will be enough for McKercher 

Are you sure North think Duursma > McKercher?

[Mach5 4,767]

18 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

The article says:  "Under the Kangaroos’ offer, they were getting extra value equivalent to pick 23, while under the Demons’ offer (if they were to finish fourth again next year), they were getting extra value equivalent to pick 8."

Our offer differential is better than equivalent pick 8 when the full trade value of 11 is factored in.

Fully trust JT et al  but...

All hypothetical. I’m also not sure how they put a value on our F1 pick, other than assuming we’ll finish in the same position as this year.

[old55 23,539]

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

I don't think Melbourne is going all into get pick 3. Its pick 1 or nothing (ie: keep 6 and 11)

Frankly I'd be very happy with that, especially if we get Curtin at 6.

[Mach5 4,767]

17 hours ago, Binmans PA said:

I'd argue it's a values proposition now mate. Draft picks or the player you eventually get. Six good or okay players versus one Christian Petracca or Clayton Oliver. I like the aggressive backing of our recruiting team.

But it sounds like it's a moot point anyway. 

What would you prefer? What would be more critical in chasing a flag?

Petracca.

OR

Jordon, Harmes, Bowey, Spargo, Sparrow & Chandler.

I know what I’d go for.

(not to mention most from the latter list could be replaced to a degree using DFAs & late picks)

Edited October 26, 2023 by Mach5

[Mach5 4,767]

I wonder if 6 & 8 would be enough to entice WC, assuming they believe Curtin would be available at 6 and he remains to be their obsession.

That’s also based on the assumption Geelong would want pick 11 & our F1 to get pick 8. It’s a lot.

Maybe the AFL would approve us getting a F3 back for Sydney’s F2 that we own, and then still being able to move our F1 as we’d have 2x F3. I’m sure they’ve signed off on similar in the past.

If I was WC, I’d probably prefer pick 11 & the F1, and I could do my own deals to move up the order if I want to, with more assets so I don’t overpay.

[Slartibartfast 17,257]

Everyone assumes WCE want Curtin.  Where is the evidence?

[Stiff Arm 4,419]

57 minutes ago, old55 said:

Are you sure North think Duursma > McKercher?

I think most people think Duursma  > McKercher, but I also think North have a raft of potential A Grade mids, and Duursma offers them something of exceptional quality but different. 

If they nab Reid and/or Duursma this draft, plus possibly another pick inside 10 they can consider themselves well and truly KOTD

Just my opinion, though

Edited October 26, 2023 by Stiff Arm

[Garbo 1,534]

2 hours ago, old55 said:

I'm going all in, assuming we like Duursma ...

WC give 1 + 23 get 2 + 6 + 42 - result: 2, 6, 37, 42, 58

North give 2 + 3 + 18 get 1 + 11 + F1 - result: 1, 11, 15, 17, 57 + F1

MFC give 6 + 11 + F1 + 42 get 3 + 18 + 23 - result 3, 18, 23, minus F1

23 is a valuable pick because it's the first pick in round 2 on night 2 and clubs who want a slider will pay a F1 for it.

You can leave the F1 and 18 out of it if you prefer.

This years draft is quite weak after the first 10 by all reports, no way would it be worth giving up 3 first rounds picks to to effectively upgrade pick 6 to 3 those other picks aren’t worth a whole lot. Even if we won the flag next year 18 next year is worth more than 18 this year and we might finish significantly lower making the deal even worse. At best I’d think 6 and next years 1st for 3 would be sufficient.

[Mach5 4,767]

Fox think we’ve played our best hand already. That may be the case, but it doesn’t mean WC can’t sit on it and think about it, then accept at the last minute.

Fox also thinks that WC have told North that both pick 2 & 3 need to be involved, and I can’t see any way that this happens. I also doubt they’d offer a F1 as it’d also be a top 4 pick.

If one of us gets creative with Geelong, it could work.
6, 8 & 42 might get the deal over the line. Otherwise WC might cave at the bell & accept our offer as the best on the table.

I live in hope.

Edited October 26, 2023 by Mach5

[Gator 17,332]

1 hour ago, Slartibartfast said:

Everyone assumes WCE want Curtin.  Where is the evidence?

I suspect they'd be keen on the best player in WA.

Hardly a wild guess.

[The Jackson FIX 3,099]

5 hours ago, bandicoot said:

No phantom draft has curtin top 5… north aren’t picking him for pick 2 or 3

From what I have read, no reputable phantom drafts have happened yet. Cal Twomeys latest one was a ‘rankings list’ which is different to a phantom draft (doesn’t consider team needs etc - just a list of best players).

Just because he isn’t ‘ranked’ inside the top 6 doesn’t mean they don’t believe he will go within the top 6.

The reliable phantom drafts typically drop a few days out from the draft

[Little Goffy 14,520]

23 hours ago, BangBnagBang said:

Cal Twomey reporting on the latest GETTABLE ep that Melbourne offered 6,11,42 and F1 during trade week!!!!!

Feels slightly less wild to say "pick 11 and 18 to upgrade 6 to 1" but... still...

That said, for about the last ten years the exact picks 6 and 11 have been pretty cursed. If you are superstitious then be glad to be shuffled to 7 and 12 by Gold Coast's first academy pick!

In Jason Taylor we trust.

[58er 6,422]

3 hours ago, Mach5 said:

What would you prefer? What would be more critical in chasing a flag?

Petracca.

OR

Jordon, Harmes, Bowey, Spargo, Sparrow & Chandler.

I know what I’d go for.

(not to mention most from the latter list could be replaced to a degree using DFAs & late picks)

Well that’s a stupid list as of now as Harmes and JJ are home already. Our depth would be from 20 down and you could still lose Trac or Clarry to a serious injury for weeks snd where would you be even if you picked up Reid. 

Honestly some of the thoughts called creative by their authors are both fantasy and stupidity wrapped in one. 

Those six players or similar would make about 2/3 wins possibly to WC an that’s all. The beauty of them for us is they have 5/7 A graders leafing them and are based on a system that has proved reasonably successful over a period. The current WC is far behind AFL standards at present so it’s not the solution for them to gobble up six ?varying players from B to C. 

Yeswe get Reid but again it’s only one player. Not a great idea. 

Better start your thinking on a good morning rather than after a hard night’s drinking!! 

 

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

1 hour ago, Mach5 said:

Fox think we’ve played our best hand already. That may be the case, but it doesn’t mean WC can’t sit on it and think about it, then accept at the last minute.

Fox also thinks that WC have told North that both pick 2 & 3 need to be involved, and I can’t see any way that this happens. I also doubt they’d offer a F1 as it’d also be a top 4 pick.

If one of us gets creative with Geelong, it could work.
6, 8 & 42 might get the deal over the line. Otherwise WC might cave at the bell & accept our offer as the best on the table.

I live in hope.

6,8,42 just means 11,F1 goto Geelong to get 8. Could be a 3 way deal perhaps? Given how difficult Geelong were in trade week, I doubt they'd get involved for that deal. But they will need picks in 24 to try and bring Darcy down from Freo. Our F1 might just be enough carrot there. 

[Mickey 4,659]

1 hour ago, Mach5 said:

Fox think we’ve played our best hand already. That may be the case, but it doesn’t mean WC can’t sit on it and think about it, then accept at the last minute.

Fox also thinks that WC have told North that both pick 2 & 3 need to be involved, and I can’t see any way that this happens. I also doubt they’d offer a F1 as it’d also be a top 4 pick.

If one of us gets creative with Geelong, it could work.
6, 8 & 42 might get the deal over the line. Otherwise WC might cave at the bell & accept our offer as the best on the table.

I live in hope.

 

[Nascent 9,212]

2 hours ago, Mickey said:

 

Eagles fans will probably love it but doesn't come across as professional.

Edited October 26, 2023 by Nascent

[Lord Travis 10,727]

20 minutes ago, Mickey said:

 

Cringe worthy and unprofessional. Our reported offer was overs as is. I'd be taking it off the table now given the rejection and then that pathetic statement. Their use of that meme makes them look like this meme

 

We'll just take Reid back in a few years for a fraction of the cost thanks. 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Lord Travis

[Demonland 72,124]

 

[Mach5 4,767]

It wouldn’t be the first time a social media manager has gone too hard on a topic only to bring chagrin to an organisation.

I think WC’s current hard stance might be that it’s not a sufficient offer, but the social media manager wouldn’t be privy to what they will eventually be willing to accept in the absence of better offers.

[deelusions from afar 1,810]

35 minutes ago, Demonland said:

 

It's quite funny - Gary wants Harley sooo bad!  Goin into bat for the dees but trying to not to b=make it too obvious!

[deelusions from afar 1,810]

24 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

It wouldn’t be the first time a social media manager has gone too hard on a topic only to bring chagrin to an organisation.

I think WC’s current hard stance might be that it’s not a sufficient offer, but the social media manager wouldn’t be privy to what they will eventually be willing to accept in the absence of better offers.

You're probably right - but if you were involved in the recruiting or management of WCE you would not want your social media manager doing this now as it just boxes them into a corner.

[Slartibartfast 17,257]

3 hours ago, Gator said:

I suspect they'd be keen on the best player in WA.

Hardly a wild guess.

I reckon they’d be after the best player in the draft. If Curtin is genuinely outside the top few I don’t think being from WA would be a primary consideration. I’d want the best player, but that’s just me. 

[Mach5 4,767]

21 minutes ago, deelusions from afar said:

You're probably right - but if you were involved in the recruiting or management of WCE you would not want your social media manager doing this now as it just boxes them into a corner.

It doesn’t really though. There’s one person in particular that would look silly.