NON-MFC: Rd 21 2023

[Jaded No More 68,976]

  On 06/08/2023 at 01:41, titan_uranus said:

On your theory, does loading have to take place mid-season in order to have effect in September? Or does it only take place then because that's when we get the bye and some longer breaks and can therefore afford to do it whilst minimising impact on games?

If it's the latter, why can't Collingwood be doing it now in an effort to increase their aerobic capacity, if they can afford to lose games now because of their ladder position? They're locked into top 4, and nearly locked into top 2.

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Because a drop off in form that inevitably comes with loading, is not something you want in the lead up to finals. 
Loading also increases the risk of injury. Another thing you don’t want in August. 

Pies were very comfortable inside the top 4 in the middle of the year. I think they loaded around that time, when they had a poor game against West Coast (only kicking away in the last) and lost to us and then barely beat a rampant Adelaide who kicked 7 against them in the third quarter. 
 

They aren’t loading now. They are just feeling the impact of their unsustainable game plan. 
Unlike us they don’t have a defensive mode. They can’t revert to a slog when required. They don’t know how to play any other way and you only need to be a bit off and a bit mentally tired for it all to fall apart. 

Edited August 6, 2023 by Jaded No More

[beelzebub 23,392]

  On 06/08/2023 at 01:39, Jaded No More said:

The media has created a situation where this poor kid can’t win. They made us all believe he’s the best player on planet earth and not in fact a 20 year old in his second season who is bound to have poor games. 
I feel bad for him. Pies will need to manage his mental well being carefully 

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Personally couldn't give a flying f about Collingwood or any of its glamma ;)

May they all rot.

[binman 44,856]

  On 06/08/2023 at 00:53, Watson11 said:

Port are in a different position to pies.  Re loading you can search google scholar on elite performance, loading and tapering, and it’s nonsense that loading needs to be mid season if you want to peak at finals.  In AFL it’s about trying to get extra loads in whenever you can as every bit helps and obviously the bye is a good time to do it. But every other elite sport has peak loads 2-4 weeks before when you want to peak.  As Macca said, the word was the crows did it late in season in 97 and dropped from equal 1st to 4th in their last 4 games but were primed for September.  If any team is going to go all in on loading it’s the Pies right now.  Whether that is the case and a reason for their drop only time will tell but it can’t be ruled out.

As an aside I think the pies are vulnerable and have all season, but I just don’t think the hawks have exposed them any more than the hawks exposed us in 2021.

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Yeah, look as i said you may well be right.

It's all guess work - in large part because of the media's bizarre refusal to at the very least include loading in their discussion.

If you are right, it is a huge gamble. As Selwyn Griffith noted on the dl podcast a huge consideration is loading creates an additional risk (ie in addition to the normal risks of injury in games) of injury.

That's a massive additional risk to take only four weeks from finals - particularly foe a team thst already seemed to have a performance advantage over their opposition.

Let's day you are right. In that scenario, perhaps Murphy's injury may not happen.

Murphy is a critical ayer for the pies because of intercept marking and speed to gey back on when oppo teams turn the ball over and counter attack. 

Let"s say its a four week injury. He won't be back to eve of finals. If there program mirrored ours he'd have 8 weeks to come back in the way clarry has (not saying his injury was loaf related, but i wouldn't rule it out).

There's also the psychological aspect. Historically you want to be playing your best footy NOW. Not losing to the 16th team on the ladder 4 games our from finals, and then have to  back up off a six day break against a the reigning premiers who may need to win to make finals.

All week the pies players, who have received nothing but ridiculously hyperbolic praise all season, will instead have to deal with the equally ridiculous 'has the pies bubble burst' rhetoric tbat will saturate the footy media - not to mention the all pervasive social media ecosystem.

Unlike us, the pies have not had practice in dealing with being questioned en masse.

Edited August 6, 2023 by binman

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

  On 06/08/2023 at 00:03, binman said:

That presser is amazing.

Mcrae looks like he had been on an all night speed bender at a techno club. 

Feedback. I love it.

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All the media has been raving this season and last about how much of a blast of fresh air McRae has been and I agree with them. But clearly, as we all know, it's a lot easier when you're winning games (partly because other teams have fallen over from unloseable positions after buying into the Collingwood comeback hype) and have no injuries. Let's see how McRae stands up if Collingwood actually gets a bit of negativity from the press and even a modest amount of bad luck.  

[Adam The God 30,752]

  On 06/08/2023 at 01:37, titan_uranus said:

They did treat Hawthorn with disrespect. Mitchell had said in the week they were going to tag Daicos but no one tried to help him (compare how we dealt with Starcevich's tag on Trac). Sicily's in AA form and they did nothing to tag him (compare what St Kilda did last week, having been taught that lesson earlier this year). They used the game to drop Cox and try a lineup with one ruckman, without bringing in Frampton.

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Equally, this could be classed as backing in their system to get the job done.

Would you have said we were arrogant not to tag Butters earlier in the year?

I wouldn't. I'd say we backed our system.

McRae said in his post presser, they tried to shift Daicos deep to throw the tag, but it didn't work, and then they just ended up going with it as their coaching team felt it was throwing off their own game too much, trying to engine space for Daicos.

But that to me tells me they're either unsure of their own weaknesses, or he's playing games there with his answer.

Edited August 6, 2023 by A F

[fr_ap 2,566]

McRae's press conference was par for the course. He's always a little twitchy, it's just his way. You're all just looking for cracks way too hard. 

Pies players were laughing on the bench with 30 seconds to go. This won't hurt them - I'm in zero doubt they're loading, for no other reason than they can afford to. Top spot is theirs. They know they've beaten anyone on their day and can win from 5 goals down consistently. 

Sorry to burst the bubble, but they're absolutely primed and this loss is doing nothing other than enhancing their priming. 

Will be beyond surprised if they don't make the grand final. 

[Adam The God 30,752]

  On 06/08/2023 at 01:51, Sydney_Demon said:

All the media has been raving this season and last about how much of a blast of fresh air McRae has been and I agree with them. But clearly, as we all know, it's a lot easier when you're winning games (partly because other teams have fallen over from unloseable positions after buying into the Collingwood comeback hype) and have no injuries. Let's see how McRae stands up if Collingwood actually gets a bit of negativity from the press and even a modest amount of bad luck.  

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I've said it before but he was a poor sport when they lost to Geelong in that QF or it might have been the loss to Sydney. He was interviewed on the ground post game and immediately complained about the umpires.

[Macca 17,127]

  On 06/08/2023 at 01:34, A F said:

Post taper is optimum and then fitness fades progressively from there.

We've got three straight years of evidence on how we approach player management. 

There's a possibility that Collingwood are managing loads, but why would you want to enter the finals with a string of losses?

Historically, the premiers enter the finals series on a run of victories. The only outlier is the Bulldogs.

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So teams aren't at their best when tapering? And we all know that post-tapering teams are at their optimum (in theory)

That's obvious and goes without saying

So again, if the Pies are tapering or increased their training loads*, why can't we use that as a reason that they've lost their last 2? (quiet last quarter's to boot)

All bias aside, aren't the outcomes similar for all teams with the loading/tapering process (including an arch enemy)

As @Watson11 highlighted, the Crows told the world that they loaded and tapered in 1997 ... lost 2 of their last 3 and barely got over the line against the 10th team in the other match ... and went from top to 4th in the process

Then won the flag (1997)

Did the same in 1998 and triumphed again

*With the weekend off prior to the finals, extra training 'towards' the end of the season can be managed

 

[Adam The God 30,752]

  On 06/08/2023 at 01:56, Macca said:

So teams aren't at their best when tapering? And we all know that post-tapering teams are at their optimum (in theory)

That's obvious and goes without saying

So again, if the Pies are tapering or increased their training loads*, why can't we use that as a reason that they've lost their last 2? (quiet last quarter's to boot)

All bias aside, aren't the outcomes similar for all teams with the loading/tapering process (including an arch enemy)

As @Watson11 highlighted, the Crows told the world that they loaded and tapered in 1997 ... lost 2 of their last 3 and barely got over the line against the 10th team in the other match ... and went from top to 4th in the process

Then won the flag (1997)

Did the same in 1998 and triumphed again

*With the weekend off prior to the finals, extra training 'towards' the end of the season can be managed

 

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Of course, they could be tapering. My point is I doubt it, because why would you taper into the last month of footy? Super dangerous...

But if you want to go with tapering, sure.

[Jaded No More 68,976]

It still shocks me that so many posters on here don’t believe in us at all, but will back Pies to the bitter end 

[Demonland 74,467]

  On 06/08/2023 at 00:32, binman said:

Teams can only do the extra training loads in and around the bye period, because the two week break gives them some chance to recover. And then maybe a top up after.

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I recall seeing a lot of Pies players going OS during the bye week to places like Bali. I have no idea whether they used this break to train or party but if they did more of the latter would that have been ideal and perhaps we are seeing the dividends now?

[biggestred 5,311]

Pies play cats twice

Dees and Port both lost in geelong

So we should look forward to the pies also losing in geelong. Oh, wait

Edited August 6, 2023 by biggestred

[Macca 17,127]

  On 06/08/2023 at 01:59, A F said:

But if you want to go with tapering, sure.

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I'm not going with anything.  None of us know much at all about training loads

I'm saying that anything is possible so if people here are prepared to let our team off the hook due to loading, equally, they must take the same attitude with other teams

That's the fair way to judge things

Also, the argument is often that when we lose it's because we're loading but what about when we win?  Is that loading related as well?

You know what AF? Sometimes we lose because we play like [censored]

Quite frankly, I don't believe anyone knows much at all about which teams might be loading or tapering

Where's the actual data & evidence?  On any team?

[DeeMee 924]

I get this feeling that MFC is a very professional organisation. We are just quietly going about our business whilst the media keeps looking for the next shiny thing.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

  On 05/08/2023 at 12:50, Nascent said:

I'd rather they finish top. They would need to lose at least 2 out of their 3 remaining games and they play both Brisbane and Geelong.

Top 2 guarantees home finals throughout the whole series and is not different to pole position apart from bragging rights.

Edit: as you pointed out on another thread, travel is still possible if the interstate teams win both qualifying finals.

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If a relatively small sample size of 23 seasons since the current finals system was introduced can be relied upon, finishing 1st or 2nd (or surprisingly 3rd) gives you an equal chance of Premiership success (from 1st 8, 2nd 7, 3rd 7, 4th 0, 7th 1). This year is a bit different because at full strength the 4 teams arguably are fairly evenly-matched. Home ground advantage plus the Grand Final being played at the MCG working against the interstate clubs are the important factors at play. I'd argue that finishing minor premiers was important for Melbourne psychologically in 2021 but this year irrelevant.

So, yes, I would agree finishing 2nd in H&A is actually better than finishing 1st, assuming Port or Brisbane finish 3rd.

[Jaded No More 68,976]

Daicos out for 6 weeks with a hairline fracture 

 

[Demonland 74,467]

  On 06/08/2023 at 02:14, Jaded No More said:

Daicos out for 6 weeks with a hairline fracture 

 

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Congratulations Marcus Bontempelli on winning the Brownlow Medal.

[jules7 816]

  On 06/08/2023 at 02:14, Jaded No More said:

Daicos out for 6 weeks with a hairline fracture 

 

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This is going to play havoc with their game plan!

[whatwhat say what 23,880]

  On 06/08/2023 at 02:18, Demonland said:

Congratulations Marcus Bontempelli on winning the Brownlow Medal.

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[Webber 10,650]

  On 06/08/2023 at 01:51, binman said:

perhaps Murphy's injury may not happen.

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Both Murphy and Daicos injuries were contact-tackle related, so couldn’t be attributable to fatigue, just the vagaries of a contact sport. FWIW, I reckon other than the first quarter, when the Pies were NOT mentally ready, and in a truly bizarre fashion, I reckon it’s the Pies game style that Hawthorn exposed, not any very obvious fatigue - pressure at the contest source and for the next release, then a willingness to go risky bananas into attack. Only works if everyone’s committed of course, and frankly Sam Mitchell has got his troops eating out of his hand in that respect. In summary, and despite media fawning, Collingwood’s game has now been proven vulnerable, and what’s more significant, they know it. 

[YearOfTheDees 3,266]

Kane Cornes calling last night a win for Port. He is even sillier than I thought.

[brendan 3,458]

  On 06/08/2023 at 02:18, Demonland said:

Congratulations Marcus Bontempelli on winning the Brownlow Medal.

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I think trac is a huge chance 

[Dee Zephyr 19,326]

  On 06/08/2023 at 02:19, whatwhat say what said:

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I thought Trac was a huge chance even before the news of Daicos’ injury. 

[whatwhat say what 23,880]

  On 06/08/2023 at 02:24, Dee Zephyr said:

I thought Trac was a huge chance even before the news of Daicos’ injury. 

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i'm more invested in him winning the aflca than the maggot award tbh

[layzie 34,528]

Glorious results. The question no-one asked was what happens if Daicos gets injured, nothing goes to script!